I don't like posting them this early, but I might not be on before 9:00AM PT tomorrow..fuk the West Coast
Memphis +13 @ ECU
1)Public Fade - A mind-numbing 95% are on ECU at s(quare)portsbook.com, 71% are showing on ECU on Live Odds, and Covers is showing 78%. Please explain to me what business the public has pounding the hell out of ECU? Are they C-USA sharps?? How many of these guys would still be laying 13 points w/ ECU if they didn't see the ending of the Tulsa game??? How many of these guys know that ECU only has 8 returning starters and a new coach/QB (Memphis same situation, I know)?? Seems like an epic fade opportunity here.
2)Possible Let Down Game - As we all know, ECU is coming off a miracle win in the final seconds on a hail mary bomb that landed in the endzone for TD. They got the win for Ruffin McNeil, their new coach, and they probably reached an emotional high for the season in the first week; I don't see how that could possibly be a good thing. I think ECU is far too inexperienced and emotionally drained coming off 6 days rest to re-focus and beat Memphis by more than 13.
3)Do we Know ECU is that much better? - Nope. What ECU did offensively means little after 1 week, and their defense was terrible and only has 3 returning starters. And Memphis's 49-7 loss @ Mississippi State (pretty good team) means basically nothing as the quality of opponent between Memphis and ECU in week 1 is like Steak vs. Ground Beef.
It's too many points for ECU as an unproven team with a new coach + new QB + 3 defensive returners (8 overall) + coming off an emotional high for the season.
Florida State @ Oklahoma -7
1)Public Fade - Since when does the public bet on road dogs?? That would be basically never, and yet 60% are on FSU @ Covers, 62% at Live Odds, and 68% at Sportsbook.com. Now it's not as huge as ECU, but it is significant, considering it is very rare that such action is on a road dog, @ Oklahoma no less. And 4 of the 5 "experts" at CBSportsline.com (basically the holy ground of college football squares) are picking FSU to win SU...just absolutely laughable. Do these fools even know what the spread is? And, of course, we all know why FSU is getting pounded by public and "expert" alike, simply because of 1 single week of football where Oklahoma played down to Utah State and won by just 7. After seeing that, the public jumps ship on Oklahoma and takes Florida State, who must be really, really good now, because, like they beat their cream puff 59-6 and Oklahoma didn't....Surely we would see the "experts" and the public still pounding FSU if the scores of week one were reversed, right???
2)Oklahoma has been preparing for FSU all Summer... - Utah State was a look ahead game for the Sooners. This is the big one Oklahoma needs to not only win, but run up the score for BCS positioning. The big time schemes and game plan are coming out for FSU. QB Landry Jones, WR Bryan Broyles, and RB Demarco Murray are going to absoultely light up the FSU D, which only has 4 returners on D, while the OU Offense has 9.
3)Coaching/Home Field - Say what you want about Bob Stoops in bowl games, but when it's the regular season, in Norman, he gets his team ready to play, always. He's won 31 games in a row at home, and is 67-2 at home since coming to OU in 1999 with an average victory of 43-14. Now first-time head coach Jimbo Fisher is coming in..OU should win by 2 TDs and won't be content with a small victory.
Good Luck.
