Cougar Bait's College Football Plays 2010

AlphaOmega · 09-16-10, 05:05 PM

Cincy is the play tonight ...

Cris_from_Europe · 09-16-10, 05:57 PM

Cincy is the play because Brandon Lang is on NC State

Cougar Bait · 09-16-10, 06:08 PM

Originally posted by Cris_from_Europe

Cincy is the play because Brandon Lang is on NC State

Wow, that is great news.

GiveMeaBJ · 09-16-10, 07:23 PM

Gl Cougar. Opposite on this one.

Serbone · 09-17-10, 12:02 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Thanks guys

Lets get this Cincy game to start the week just like Marshall last week

68% on NC State right now

You're a very good capper but when the public picks one side @ 68% rate, do you think that is a valid reason to take the other side? I do not. Too many on this board are prone to go against the betting majority like that is the sucker bet. And, to boot, there are different data sources. Just saying. IMO Vegas thought public would stick with Cincy, looking at last 2-3 yrs, so made spread small. NC St should have been -7 based on this yrs teams and results and new coach and QB at CIncy.

hitman2010 · 09-17-10, 01:24 PM

NC won the game , CiCi hadn't enough stage to play the game.

Cougar Bait · 09-17-10, 05:35 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

You're a very good capper but when the public picks one side @ 68% rate, do you think that is a valid reason to take the other side? I do not. Too many on this board are prone to go against the betting majority like that is the sucker bet. And, to boot, there are different data sources. Just saying. IMO Vegas thought public would stick with Cincy, looking at last 2-3 yrs, so made spread small. NC St should have been -7 based on this yrs teams and results and new coach and QB at CIncy.

The public betting is something I tend to look at, especially in weeknight games. Look at the history. Were you on Marshall last week? I was. I think if you look over the history of the public betting percentages on Thursday and Friday night games, those that fall in the 60-70% range generally do not cover. I expected a bit more out of Cincy, but basically everything that could have gone wrong in the first half, did. Still 11-8 on the year, so that is a decent start. GL to you this week.

Cougar Bait · 09-17-10, 05:38 PM

Friday Night

Southern Miss -5 -109 (1 to win .92)
Nevada +3 -105 (1 to win .95)

GiveMeaBJ · 09-18-10, 01:00 AM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

The public betting is something I tend to look at, especially in weeknight games. Look at the history. Were you on Marshall last week? I was. I think if you look over the history of the public betting percentages on Thursday and Friday night games, those that fall in the 60-70% range generally do not cover. I expected a bit more out of Cincy, but basically everything that could have gone wrong in the first half, did. Still 11-8 on the year, so that is a decent start. GL to you this week.

I tend to disagree with this. The only purpose public % serves for me is if there is some crazy line movement to go around with hit. For example if NC St had been going down to -2, -1. Then that is when the trap is set (like last week WVU opening at -14 and dropping to -12. When the public is on a side heavy and the line moves normally I think it is just a regular game. But, I am a firm beleiver if you look too much into public % it will just mess with your head more then it will lead you in the right direction.

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Friday Night

Southern Miss -5 -109 (1 to win .92)
Nevada +3 -105 (1 to win .95)

Very nice.

Cougar Bait · 09-18-10, 04:59 AM

BJ, I generally only use it in weeknight games or when there are very few games or one game going off. Although I do know guys that feel the same way you do.

2-1 on the week +.87 units

13-8 +5.97 units YTD

firedawg · 09-18-10, 05:34 AM

good job coug

Cougar Bait · 09-18-10, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by firedawg

good job coug

Here are the plays from post #100 I put in earlier this week:

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

[i][b]
Saturday:
Ball State +17 -112 (2 to win 1.79)
Florida International +28 -110 (2 to win 1.82)
Georgia -2 -107 (1 to win .93)
Temple +6.5 -107 (1 to win .93)
Central Michigan -8.5 -110 (1 to win .91)
East Carolina +20 -110 (1 to win .91)
BYU +10.5 -110 (1 to win .91)
Oregon State -19.5 -102 (1 to win .98)
Rice +6.5 -105 (1 to win .95)

Good luck this week everyone

Cheme82 · 09-18-10, 12:37 PM

Good luck big dog!

JMF2479 · 09-18-10, 12:43 PM

Those picks Look good. Good luck

Cougar Bait · 09-18-10, 04:34 PM

Thanks guys

2-2 on the early games with a small profit (thank you Ball State)

Adding:

Notre Dame +3.5 -105 (2 to win 1.90)

fishmonger · 09-18-10, 08:36 PM

Let me ask you a question coug. How in the hell is Texas A&M losing to FIU?? What did you see in them that everyone missed? Just wanted to know why you picked them on the road.

Cougar Bait · 09-18-10, 10:55 PM

Originally posted by fishmonger

Let me ask you a question coug. How in the hell is Texas A&M losing to FIU?? What did you see in them that everyone missed? Just wanted to know why you picked them on the road.

FIU lost the game, but they have enough on offense to keep it close, I knew 4 TDs was too many.

Cougar Bait · 09-18-10, 10:58 PM

5-5 today +2.35 units

18-10 +8.32 units YTD

Cheme82 · 09-19-10, 12:25 AM

Good job bro, another profitable night!

Tedd · 09-19-10, 05:49 AM

Good work Cougar!

Cougar Bait · 09-19-10, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by cheme82

Good job bro, another profitable night!

Originally posted by Tedd

Good work Cougar!

Thanks guys, hit the bigger plays so made a small profit on the week. Pretty happy with +8.32 units so far this year

On to next week

Cougar Bait · 09-21-10, 06:03 PM

Leans for this week. As I have done all year, I will likely narrow it down from this list.

Pittsburgh +3.5
Oregon -11
Rice +8
Boise State -17
Virginia Tech -4
Bowling Green +25.5
Central Michigan +7
Florida International +11
Florida -14
Fresno State +3
Central Florida +7
UNLV -9
Stanford -4.5
Temple +14
Toledo +12.5
UAB +13.5

Cougar Bait · 09-22-10, 05:38 PM

Thursday:

Pittsburgh +4 -105 (1 to win .95)

Cougar Bait · 09-25-10, 10:08 AM

Lost on Pitt earlier in the week, bringing the overall record this year to 18-11. Here's what I've got for today:

Central Michigan +7 -110 (1 to win .91)
Bowling Green +25.5 -105 (2 to win 1.90)
Florida International +12 -107 (2 to win 1.85)
Stanford -4.5 -105 (2 to win 1.85)
Florida -13.5 -107 (2 to win 1.85)
Fresno State +2 -106 (1 to win .94)
Rice +8 -105 (1 to win .95)
Oregon -11.5 +102 (1 to win 1.02)

Good luck to everyone today

Go State · 09-25-10, 10:29 AM

Im on FIU and Fresno with ya

AlphaOmega · 09-25-10, 11:01 AM

good luck today

Cougar Bait · 09-25-10, 02:34 PM

Thanks guys, 1-1 on the early ones, with hopefully a backdoor cover pending from Fla International.

Cougar Bait · 09-25-10, 06:50 PM

2-2 with the night plays pending. Florida looking good early.

Cougar Bait · 09-26-10, 01:29 AM

Rough week, couple tough losses, here's the damage:

3-5 today -2.39 units

21-16 +4.93 units YTD

JMF2479 · 09-26-10, 09:23 AM

Still not bad on the year

Cougar Bait · 09-26-10, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by JMF2479

Still not bad on the year

Not bad, but not great either. I hope to pick things up the next couple weeks. This mediocrity will just not do...

Cheme82 · 09-26-10, 12:01 PM

You'll bounce back bro. Keep at it!

Cougar Bait · 09-27-10, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by Cheme82

You'll bounce back bro. Keep at it!

The thing that really made me mad was the leans I didn't play went like 6-1 or 7-0 or something ridiculous.

Cougar Bait · 09-28-10, 05:50 PM

Leans for the week, most games will be chosen from this list:

Oklahoma State -3
BYU -5
Oregon State -3.5
Arkansas State +5
Temple -5
Central Michigan -17
Boston College +2.5
UConn -7.5
Ohio -10
Idaho -3
Indiana +10
Texas Tech -7
Marshall +9.5
Wisconsin -2
UNLV +21
Virginia Tech -4
Texas +4
Rutgers -14.5

delve_deeper · 09-28-10, 06:04 PM

Maybe take a look at Toledo?