Pags' Plays 11/24

[Louisvillekid1]

Thanks Pags

thanks for your input this year , and don't let idiots get under your skin. . . just ignore them, keep up the good work. . .

[imgv94]

I'd like to officially announce that I'm done posting plays for the year. I'm extremely dissapointed with all of the trash in the sports forums and I'm extremely dissapointed in certain moderators and other SBR staff that aren't policing the forum properly. If I see improvement, I will think about posting next year, but until then I'm done. It's just too much work for no pay and risking too much knowing that I don't have the proper support. I'm sorry to dissapoint anyone. Thanks.

Really can't blame you for feeling like this. It's obvious that SBR is ungrateful for all the traffic you have brought this site.

I've had numerous people ask me/email me asking about where to find pags plays. No other major forum would allow you to be fυcked with, if you posted at theRX Wilheim would ban anyone who bashed you, at the very least he would put them on post review for a couple of weeks. Bill Dozer is too busy counting his money to get involved.

Really good group of posters here who r good guys. Too bad a couple of rotten apples got in the way of a good thing.

[icemantbi]

Hey Pags, I just want to say thank you for all your College Football plays this year. I've made quite a few dollars on your picks this year and i appreciate that.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving.

[onlooker]

I'd like to officially announce that I'm done posting plays for the year. I'm extremely dissapointed with all of the trash in the sports forums and I'm extremely dissapointed in certain moderators and other SBR staff that aren't policing the forum properly. If I see improvement, I will think about posting next year, but until then I'm done. It's just too much work for no pay and risking too much knowing that I don't have the proper support. I'm sorry to dissapoint anyone. Thanks.

I haven't got any reported posts in my email about your threads. I am here when I can, and that is not 24 hours a day. We can't catch everything, that is why there is a "report post" link/icon . To alert us about it.

[pags11]

kid,

thanks man...I know what you are saying but it's tough enough when you are down a couple of games on the day only to find that your thread gets beat up and mysteriously no one is around to police it (not like they'd do anything anyway)...

imgv,

thanks...I was really trying to be loyal to SBR, because this is a site/ company that has really helped educate me on the industry, thus allowing me to actually collect the money I win each year because I play with reputable sports books...however, their lack of backbone really has me in a foul mood...now call tacomax gay and in minutes they will respond...

iceman,

thanks very much bud...I'm glad I could help out...possibly you could voice your opinion to the higher ups at SBR so stuff like these past two weeks in my thread doesn't happen again...

[willyz]

Thanks PAGS!!! I think I can speak for many "lurkers" here that your experience and insight will be sorely missed. Good luck (as if you need it) wherever you choose to go!

P.S. Don't leave man! We need ya!!!

[White_Tiger]

all plays for a half unit...

Virginia +3.5
Missouri +3
South Carolina +3

GL Pags I'll tail on VIR and S. Car this week. I've been winning so much on Kansas this year and will not go against them. I'll stay out of that game but still wish you luck.

BTW. Please stay and keep posting I still have alot to learn from you.

WT.

[alexda[]]

man that sucks that u'll be gone pags. everyone goes on a bit of a bad streak and it suck that the idiots r driving u away. it is bullshit that u post to help for free and u get shit talked to if ur having a bad week or two(which happens to everyone). bol to u

[Wheell]

You know Pags, it isn't your integrity I am questioning, it is your usefulness. I'll explain that but first let me deal with a few other topics:

1. The Mods: I personally feel they do a pretty good job. you clearly disagree. What exactly do you feel they should be doing? A message board almost requires moderators to have a light touch or else the ability to freely communicate is lost. If people are using multiple accounts from one IP I can see some tension there, but in general, if people have something to say I'd rather err on the side of letting them say it.

2. Losing streaks: 48-35 speaks for itself. It doesn't really matter if you are hot or cold lately. It might upset you personally, but mathematically it has little bearing. You aren't a team with injured players, it doesn't matter what your latest results have been. Only long term results can show a good handicapper from a bad one.

3. If people bash you for having a bad week, ignore them. There is no real point in challenging them to show their picks because a small sample of picks is meaningless. If I recall correctly a monkey pulling picks out of its butt has a 29% chance of winning 9 or more games out of 13 picks. Does that mean the monkey's butt is a good handicapper? no. Ignore idiots. I have also noted that a lot of people post informative nuggets about your games including injury information, weather conditions, and play styles. If you feel you don't gain much by posting, that is your choice, but the info should more than outweigh the crowd that mocks you for your latest results.

Now, this is most important. Let me quote Durito's post from last week's CFB thread:

"good luck this week and nice writeups"

"i'm still hoping to get cincy at 7, i don't thinks it going to happen."

I believe you have taken every single line you have claimed to have taken. I believe that in college football you are and will be a long term winner. I don't believe that your skills necessarily translate here. One of your greatest skills is the ability to handicap games and nail opening lines. You do lineshopping, but when it comes to openers the real advantage is catching soft lines and nailing them before they get sharpened. This raises a question:

"Pags took team X at +3. The line is now +2. Now what?"

We know what you have done, not what you would do now. A player who decides to follow you has a few options:

A. Lineshop and take all your selections at the best price available at the time.

B. Lineshop and take all of the plays that are equal or better than the price you got.

Let me suggest that plan B is unwise. A line of 3 that has just been posted is VERY different from a line of 3 that has been sharpened by a weeks worth of action. If you take only the plays where the market is either fine with that number, or is in fact willing to offer you a better number, you are setting yourself up to get trapped. I can say with confidence that in the long run the games that Pags will do the best on are the games where the line moves in his favor. Depriving yourselves of those games is a bad long term plan.

Plan A involves taking all the teams Pags backs at whatever best price you can find. If on average the prices you got were as good as the prices Pags got you would do roughly as well as Pags. Fortunately for Pags he is quite sharp and for the most part the lines he gets are much better than the lines available to you. This means that you will do worse than Pags. How much worse is unclear. It is possible that over the long run you will do well enough that is worth it to follow Pags with the sharpened lines. It is also possible that most of Pags advantage is his ability to hit weak lines, a skill not easily sharable.

So, we are back to real question: How useful is it to post I like team X at price 1.5 points better than the market?

I know I like Boise St. at +5.5, Mizzou at +3, USC at -2.5, and so on. That doesn't mean I would back those teams at the current market rate.

Good luck Pags, I hope you don't have another losing week the rest of the season.

Addendum: This quote from BigBollocks also illustrates the point quite well:

"Pags even in losing I think you showed why it's important to get early numbers. Based on the numbers you got early in the week, you went 2-4-1. However, for those that trailed you from Tuesday on, they went 1-6. Getting the best number is critical for long-term success. Get 'em next week my man..."

Catching the weakest lines when they are at their weakest is a long term winning stratagy.

[Cardfan]

Pags,
I always look forward to your posts, and your perspective on the games. I would hate to see you go. Ignore the idiots, and hang around for the majority who appreciate your hard work.

[Cougar Bait]

Pags,
I always look forward to your posts, and your perspective on the games. I would hate to see you go. Ignore the idiots, and hang around for the majority who appreciate your hard work.

Agreed. your post is the first one I read after the lines come out. I don't always play all of your picks, but I always play at least one or two. It would be a shame for the forum to lose it's best college football capper because of a couple morons. If you leave I will miss your informative take on the games. I think it would be a shame. GL this week bro.

[Lock-ness monsta]

Pags,

I'm fairly new to this board, five or six weeks, but I always check your write-ups first. I think your posts are well thought through. Even the best handicappers have a few games that they get screwed on - that's why it's a gamble. However, your picks that lose are always really close. That's just the way it is. Don't let the jackasses get you down. We appreciate your insights. Thanks and happy thanksgiving.

[BigBollocks]

GL this week Pags. I hope you get stuffed with turkey and cash my friend...

[GatorFan]

I'd like to officially announce that I'm done posting plays for the year. I'm extremely dissapointed with all of the trash in the sports forums and I'm extremely dissapointed in certain moderators and other SBR staff that aren't policing the forum properly. If I see improvement, I will think about posting next year, but until then I'm done. It's just too much work for no pay and risking too much knowing that I don't have the proper support. I'm sorry to dissapoint anyone. Thanks.

It's so sad to hear your announce. I always repect your picks through the years. Thanks buddy, and have a great holiday season.

[cashflow50]

Man that really sucks when someone just comes in a particular thread and post negativities. This announcement just struck me. Pags I've been reading your insights on games and truly believe you're amongst the elite of cappers here and on other forums. Well I really hope you change your mind cause I could use your insights(help) on the bowl games coming up. But if not then I'll wish you happy holidays my friend. Thanks bud.

[awhitejackson]

GL...Happy Holidays...Hope to see yor picks next year...

[beaneaters]

Echoing what loch-ness said. But, if this forum continues to degenerate, can someone offer a few alternatives? I, for one, appreciate insight, rather than dealing with cheerleading spam so many throw out there.

[pags11]

guys,

thanks for all of the support...I really appreciate it...

wheell,

my only comment echoing what you have said is I post the games I play immediately...if someone wants to check the fourm knowing that I post my games on Sunday evening, they should be able to get very similiar lines to what I'm playing...the longer the week goes on, the more the lines will be different...I'm not holding a gun to anyone's head on when and how much to play the games I play...I'm simply stating the games I have played, the lines I have gotten, and my unit size...beyond that I take no responsibility...never in my life did I think in a year that I was up 35 units that I would have to deal with all of this BS...

understand that I'm a big boy and have no problem with people talking shit...however, for the mods not to do their job removing those posters who cross the line is completely and utterly unacceptable...you have and will see some staff members come into my thread making excuses on why things haven't been done, but the bottom line is SBR needs to get their shit together and I'm not sure they have the backbone to do so...

[regularguy]

pags11:

I believe I have read all your posts this football season. Not just because I got some good picks there, but because I figured I could learn something about capping by looking at your reasoning. I did. Thanks.

[mv09]

Don't Leave!!

I blame this on morons like TheShark who diss his picks even though they are money.

He leaves, traffic dies, forum dies...
Think about that mods

[sweethook]

picks

ok ive watched long enough my picks are miss st.and clemson to cover, lsu to win on money line, tease miss st. & lsu both are home. tony.

[imgv94]

Don't Leave!!

I blame this on morons like TheShark who diss his picks even though they are money.

He leaves, traffic dies, forum dies...
Think about that mods

Brace yourselves SBR

[hawk 5]

Go have a beer or 2, get layed and come back strong for bowl time.

[imgv94]

hawk5,

pags is taking it very easy from here on out. 1/2 unit plays the rest of the way.

BTW I'm looking forward to your BIG-TEN analysis in those bowl games.

[ChuteBoxe]

damn, I just got here, and you're leaving. I heard that you were very knowledgable in both your pick selection, and the industry itself. I wish you well wherever you go next season, and hope you reconsider posting on sbr. Don't let a few as*holes ruin it for the rest of us who would really benefit from your knowledge.

[pats3peat]

kid,

thanks man...I know what you are saying but it's tough enough when you are down a couple of games on the day only to find that your thread gets beat up and mysteriously no one is around to police it (not like they'd do anything anyway)...

imgv,

thanks...I was really trying to be loyal to SBR, because this is a site/ company that has really helped educate me on the industry, thus allowing me to actually collect the money I win each year because I play with reputable sports books...however, their lack of backbone really has me in a foul mood...now call tacomax gay and in minutes they will respond...

iceman,

thanks very much bud...I'm glad I could help out...possibly you could voice your opinion to the higher ups at SBR so stuff like these past two weeks in my thread doesn't happen again...

Id feel screwed over if i were you too
Good luck and thanks for all your plays. hope i see your picks somewhere.

[VolinArizona]

pags,

Your plays have netted me a lot of money this year. I'll miss your insight.

[imgv94]

[MonkeyF0cker]

Hey pags,

I'm on the Mizzou train with you this week but my favorite game of the week is Georgia (-3.5). I'm also liking Stanford (-3.5). Was wondering if you have a lean on either of these two games...

[imgv94]

Georgia -3.5 looks too damn good.

[pags11]

thanks again for the support guys...sorry, I won't be offering any opinions on any games until sbr gets off the ...

[MonkeyF0cker]

Georgia -3.5 looks too damn good.

Yeah it does. I see it as a two TD win. Something like 31-17 or so. Was surprised to see that line...

[MonkeyF0cker]

thanks again for the support guys...sorry, I won't be offering any opinions on any games until sbr gets off the ...

Thats unfortunate, pags. I've seen the same thing happen to AC during the baseball season. I really hope that the mods will start to be more proactive in policing the idiots. But at the same time, this is a win for the morons - at a point in the season where constructive discussions are most critical. I quit posting here a while back due to the degenerates as well. I've just decided to ignore them now...

In any case, I'm hopeful for your return and look forward to bouncing some thoughts at you in the future.

[imgv94]

Thats unfortunate, pags. I've seen the same thing happen to AC during the baseball season. I really hope that the mods will start to be more proactive in policing the idiots. But at the same time, this is a win for the morons - at a point in the season where constructive discussions are most critical. I quit posting here a while back due to the degenerates as well. I've just decided to ignore them now...

In any case, I'm hopeful for your return and look forward to bouncing some thoughts at you in the future.

Very true.. Great point

[babaoriley]

Good god man. If pags leaves, I'll be sorely disappointed. I don't have the rep around here that pags and IMGV have so my voice doesn't carry as much weight, but over the year or so that I've contributed to the board, I never thought that I'd see the board erode so quickly.

Mods, IT CAN STILL BE CHANGED. I like this board, but in all honesty, there are maybe 10-15 posters here that I even remotely respect, in terms of actual capping ability. Some of the newer peeps may come in and prove their worth, but for the most part, there are a lot of blowhards coming on here and spouting nonsense. Let's clean this up a little and retain valued cappers.

And finally, pags is right: those of you who play at reputable books should be able to get similar, if not the same, lines that pags gets. We all know when his plays are going up on SBR forums.

Pags, I hate to see you go but I completely understand your reasoning. A lot of money has been made by many players tailing you. In addition to my own plays, I almost always tail your plays (the only exceptions being when I'm just too damn late or when I simply disagree). When the lines go up, I usually see a couple lines that make me think "I bet pags is going to be on that one"... What I'm saying is that by watching you work, I know I've been able to refine my own early line analysis. Again, it would be a shame to see you leave as you are a true asset to the board.