Pags' Plays 10/27

[BuddyBear]

Pags great season so far. Epic run Coach.....

[pags11]

shrax,

lol, sorry brother don't play the lottery...BOL to you this week...

[odusmykal]

Once again, mid-season and you're a lock!! I love your write ups every week!! I sometimes question a pick you've made, but come Sat. night, you prevail.. I've followed your picks the last 2 years and made lots of cash cause of you, so keep it up Coach..

[bridgejumprsrfun]

Nice number on Fresno. Not a single pick on the card I don't like....you just confirmed a few leans for me.

GL

[paytheline]

wish you continued success

[pags11]

buddy,

thanks very much my friend...congrats on a successful season so far yourself...thanks for all your contributions as well...

odu,

thanks very much for checking in and thanks for the compliment...GL to you this week...

bridge,

thanks regarding the Fresno number, it wasn't up there for long...good to hear your analysis of my card...

paytheline,

much appreciated...GL to you as well...

[onlooker]

Hey Pags, keep up the great capping.

As for your plays this week, I am with you on Texas Tech. The others I have no action.

Good luck as always.

[tblues2005]

pags thanks for your picks and good luck this week. I am leaning towards taking Missouri -28 this week, Iowa State isn't very good on the road and they could easily get blown out this weekend.

[pags11]

onlooker,

thanks...good to hear we are on Texas Tech together...GL to you as well this week...

tblues,

no problem at all...GL with that Missouri game...

[imgv94]

[manny24]

sorry pags

i know you have crunched the numbers but i'm going to have to go with imgv's pics this week!

[taurus]

pags- another great week for you. Bravo !!

I simply went with you on a couple, like Mizzou and Miami if I recall. Thanks for the winners.
I am nowhere near ready to play as early as you do , and i notice that once again you have some great numbers.
I am considering just plain coattailing you and then go on from there with my own stuff, but
Would you still like
Fresno at 3
No Carolina at 5 1/2
Penn State at 3 1/2
UConn at 4
?
I'm not much into buying points, but I'd welcome your opinion on that as well.
Thanks for the winners, thanks for any response, and best of luck all the way.
taurus(the bull)

[hhsilver]

Fri. one unit play...

Fresno St. +6

Sat. all plays for 3 units...

Northwestern +13
North Carolina +7
Georgia +10
Penn St. +4.5
Connecticut +5.5
Texas Tech -12.5
Nevada -17

Pags,
Are you becoming another Dr Bob as far as effecting the line? I just looked at lines (Thurs morn) and by betting early you got the best of all but Nev as far as line moves are concerned - and with Nev, it's mostly just 0.5 pt worse right now.
This impresses me almost as much as your stellar picks. I haven't tracked line moves as they relate to your picks in the past. Is this week typical? Have you generally gotten the best of line moves by betting early? I think you said in another thread that when you know who you want, you bet early and don't try to decide whether waiting will give you a better line and that you have found this to be a better strategy than trying to guess which way a line will move. ( I know I, and probably most others, am wrong as often as right in anticipating moves).
I am wondering if you are getting so many followers here that it is causing you to have even more lines move in your favor?




.

[54comet]

Pags,thanks to you I will be playing Fresno State and N. Carolina in a 2 team parlay. You scared me off Ohio St. and S. Florida.

[GatorFan]

Pags,

I always respect your picks. However, this week there is one game that I go against you which is Penn St. +4.5. Ohio St. who ranked #1 with perfect score 8-0. How is Penn St. goona handle this well coached team. I am looking forward to your write up to see your opinion on this. Thanks.

[pags11]

Hello Board,

Here are my plays for the week:

Northwestern +13

Quietly, Pat Fitzgerald’s club has won three in a row and I think they match up well with Purdue here. QB C.J. Bacher is as hot as any quarterback in the country right now and Northwestern is currently riding him. Also, RB Tyrell Sutton is back for this week’s game and that should be a big boost. I expect him to split carries with RB Omar Conteh, who’s also been running very well. The Northwestern receiving corp. is as underrated as there is in the Big 10 and they understand how to move the chains in the spread offense they run. Defensively, they will have to have a bend and not break mentality, although I’m sure Purdue will still get their points. Purdue comes into this game having lost two of their last three, and it’s usually this time of year that they go into their “swoon”. I’m not sure what the deal is with these guys, but during Big 10 play Tiller usually has these guys underachieving. One important thing to note is how RB Kory Sheets has been in and out of Tiller’s dog house, as he is the focal point of Purdue’s running game. Expect a shootout in this one, but Northwestern should be able to trade blows with Purdue. It’s Northwestern and the points for me here.


North Carolina +7

Butch Davis’s squad continues to play hard every week, and I think they will give Wake Forest a serious run here. Traditionally, North Carolina has played very well in Winston- Salem and I look for more of the same from them this week. They have had two weeks to prepare for this game and this should help them in defending Wake Forest’s tricky offense. North Carolina’s defensive line, led by standout freshman Marvin Austin, should be able to put consistent pressure on QB Riley Skinner. North Carolina must lockdown on WR Kenny Moore, who’s fresh off a fifteen catch performance last week against Navy. I really think the coaching match-up is dead even in this game, with Butch Davis and Jim Grobe both being very skilled in leading their respective squads. North Carolina QB T.J. Yates continues to progress in his decision making and has three excellent receiving options at his disposal, led by All-ACC candidate Hakeem Nicks. WR/ KR Brandon Tate could again play an important role in this one with him setting North Carolina up with some good field position. This should be a game won in the trenches, and should be a battle to the end. I’m on North Carolina and the points in this game.


Georgia +10

Georgia is just one of those teams that you have to try to pick your spots with. Due to the conservative nature of their offensive game plan, they struggle at times as favorites. However, they do relish the role of underdogs, especially in bigger games like this one. With a week off to prepare, I expect Georgia to come ready to play in this one. It’s extremely important that Matt Stafford makes good decisions, because the game will be put on his shoulders. I expect Florida to load the box to try and contain RB Knowshon Moreno. This will leave the already suspect Florida secondary very susceptible through the air. It’s also important to note that Florida exerted a lot of energy in their last game against Kentucky, as well as the fact that QB Tim Tebow will be playing with a bruised non-throwing shoulder. Georgia is very stout vs. the run and this should put Florida in some third and long situations as they’ve been reluctant to run RB Kestahn Moore very much this season (also note Percy Harvin has been limited in his carries due to being banged up). The dog has faired very well in this series of late and I’m hoping the trend continues on Saturday. I’ll take Georgia and the points yet again.


Penn St. +4.5

Penn St. comes into this game after a hard fought victory last week at Indiana. Ohio St. also struggled last week in the second half with Michigan St., holding on to beat them late. I believe most of the reason for each team’s second half struggles, was that both of these teams were looking ahead to this week’s game. This game matches up two of the better defenses in the entire country and should end up being a classic Big Ten battle. Penn St. has played very well at home this year, and it should be even more of an electric atmosphere with this game being played at night, in front of a national TV audience. Both teams stop the run very well, which will mean limited yards per carry for Ohio St.’s Chris “Beanie” Wells and Penn St.’s duo of Rodney Kinlaw and Evan Royster. This should leave both offenses in a number of third and long situations. The team who can limit their turnovers offensively and convert the better percentages of third downs should have the edge in this one. Penn St. Anthony Morelli has shown better decision making skills this year, especially during Penn St.’s home games. While Ohio St. Todd Boeckman has been impressive with his deep throws this season, he can struggle at times with his accuracy in the short to intermediary passing game. Penn St. has a slight edge in the playmaking department, especially with their receiving corp. WR/ KR Derrick Williams could play a big role in this one, especially in the kick return game. Also, if this one comes down to a field goal, Penn. St. kicker Kevin Kelly is a clutch performer. Jim Tressel will have his team prepared for this one, but look for Penn State keep this game very close until the end, possibly even pulling out an outright win. Penn St. plus the points is my play.

Connecticut +5.5

All I’ve heard this week is how Connecticut didn’t deserve to win last week’s game because of the botched fair catch call by the referees. Lost in all of the controversy, was the fact that Connecticut came from behind against a talented Louisville team for a very gritty win. These guys haven’t played a lot on national TV, but believe me that it's not by chance that they sit atop the Big East standings. Randy Edsal continues to build the Connecticut program, putting all the pieces in place to keep things going for years to come. Their indoor practice facility, new weight room, and training center have helped recruiting a ton. QB Tyler Lorenzen continues to be a dual threat, making him a tough player for opponents to game plan for. RB Andre Dixon is doing an excellent job of moving the ball on the ground for the Huskies this year. Lorenzen has playmaking WR Larry Taylor, possession receiver D.J. Hernandez (a former QB who Edsal has found a way to get on the field), and also do a nice job involving their TE Steve Brouse into the passing game. South Florida suffered an emotional loss last week and could come into this game a bit deflated. It should also be noted that South Florida doesn’t play nearly as well in colder weather (as witnessed last week in their game vs. Rutgers). The once impenetrable South Florida defense has shown some holes lately, especially against the run. QB Matt Grothe has also had a tough time staying in the pocket and making plays. This should be another hard fought, low-scoring game and I’m siding with Connecticut and the points here.


Texas Tech -12.5

I understand that Texas Tech didn’t look very good last week in their loss to Missouri. As I stated last week, it was a very tough spot for them facing an extremely talented Missouri squad in Colombia. This week, however, they catch a Colorado squad that is struggling to score points and also is a team that just doesn’t travel very well. The biggest thing that impresses me about Texas Tech’s team is their offensive line. Dubbed, the “Great Wall of Lubbock”, these guys give QB Graham Harrell a ton of time to throw the football. As I’m sure most of you are aware, Texas Tech is a completely different team at home. Their offense just tends to click a lot better and their defense yields far less yards and points than they do on the road. Look for WR Michael Crabtree to have a big day, and the passing game will open up the running game for RB Shannon Woods. It should also be noted that last year Colorado really enjoyed their victory vs. Texas Tech. Mike Leach hasn’t forgotten that as he had his team in full pads practicing this past Sunday afternoon, in preparation for this game. QB Cody Hawkins is a good young QB, but still makes far too many bad decisions. With the lack of a consistent running game, it will force Hawkins into some poor throws and ultimately a short field for Texas Tech. Look for Colorado to battle for a half or so, but trying to stay with Texas Tech for four quarters will prove to be too much. I’m laying the points with Texas Tech in this one.


Nevada -17

Last week was a bad spot for Nevada after they came off a four overtime loss at the hands of Boise State. In watching the tape, though, I am still extremely impressed with the play of QB Colin Kaepernick. He an excellent decision who possesses a strong throwing arm, but he’s also extremely mobile. These particular QB’s are extremely difficult for college defenses to try to defend, especially a defense like Idaho. Kaepernick has two excellent receivers to throw to in Marko Mitchell (21.0 ypc) and Mike McCoy (20.6 ypc). Also, RB Luke Lippincott is one of the hottest RB’s in the WAC; having rushed for over 400 yards combined his past two games. Those of you that got to watch Nevada play a couple of weeks ago probably saw how skilled a play caller that Nevada coach Chris Ault is. This should come in handy against an Idaho defense that gave up 500 yards in the first half alone last week vs. New Mexico St. Although Idaho does possess a good young RB in Deonte Jackson, they are really struggling with their QB play. Staring QB Nathan Ederle was lost for the season a couple of weeks ago and currently Idaho is using a two QB system (with Bryan Nooy and Quin Ashley splitting snaps). It should also be noted that Ault’s record as a home favorite the past 3 ½ years is well above 60%. In what sets up to be a track meet, I see Nevada pulling away in the second half of this game. It’s Nevada minus the points for me here.

Good luck to all.

pags11

[pags11]

imgv,

thanks for the pics bro...

manny,

no doubt!...GL bud...

taurus,

thanks as always for chiming in...I try to be a believer in betting the game, more than just betting the line...that being said, of course I'd recommend the better number but if I post them I still think they are good plays with numbers currenlty available...

hhsilver,

thanks for the compliment, but I alone hardly think I affect the lines, but I do think there are some people out there that think a lot like me...all of those people added up still make only a small dent...I'm just a ripple in a huge pond my friend...thanks though...

54comet,

good to hear you are on those two games...GL to you this week...

gatorfan,

good to see you over here, I've enjoyed reading your stuff over the years...sorry to hear we will be against eachother in the Penn St. game...BOL to you though...

[BigMoney]

thanks pags with you on Uconn,georgia,TTech.....I like WakeForest,Ohio St...........thanks pags

[pags11]

bigmoney,

no problem...BOL to you this week...

[Philavanh]

Like always.......thanx for the write ups Pags, lets make some $$$$$$$!!!!!!!!!

[Cougar Bait]

Pags,

I'm playing every pick you made except for Northwestern. I guess I'm just scared of that one because I know Purdue can score. I also took Arkansas St. +4 vs. Troy. 2-0 so far and will be on Fresno tonight. GL this week! Great write ups.

[taurus]

thanks for the response, pags.
I'm going to be playing all of them , ( plus many more - of course- which is my style )
GL as always

[Wassymac]

Write-ups look good as always Pags. One thing on the Purdue game is Sheets seemed to be out of the dog house last week against Iowa. The big boost they got was Jaycen Taylor playing with a cast on his left arm and carrying the rock 19 times. Taylor was at least even on the depth chart coming into the season and I expect a 2-headed attack going forward. I don't have much of an opinion on the game except I may put some on the under.

Good luck

[SexyMit]

I haven't been on this year much been busy. Everyone keeps going on how good your record is this yr pags11. If you don't mind with the picks you have given this yr what is your record? I followed and made some money last yr off of you and I look to do the same this yr. Thanks for such good write ups they give me better insight on a few games.

[abacus30]

It's been a great ride the past few weeks Pags11... thanks a lot for providing us with great insight and a lot of fun on Saturdays.

[austintx05]

with ya on uconn & georgia....send me that pm when ya get a chance...

[regularguy]

Hi pags.

Thank you for sharing your picks, and your writeups. I especially like your Northwestern and UConn picks. I will definitely bet those. I believe UConn has a very good chance of winning that game outright.

I'm going to pass on that Texas Tech game. I'm worried that Hawkins the quarterback is due for a good game, and I'm getting the feeling that Hawkins the coach might have a way of rising to the challenge of better teams. If I was to bet on this game, I would take Texas Tech, but I think I'll sit this out and watch.

Regarding Nevada, I'm concerned about their loss for the season of their middle linebacker, Joshua Mauga. He hurt his knee last week at Utah State. Mauga was first in the WAC with 11.7 tackles per game. Apparently, he was on the watch list for the Butkus Award. It is a big loss for a team that is dead last in the nation in rushing yards given up per game (245.7). And, this week they will be trying to stop the WAC's leading rusher, Deonte Jackson. But, like you said, it will be a trackmeet, and I agree that Nevada, at home, with Ault calling the shots, should still come out well ahead. I may still bet on them.

Again, thanks for posting your thoughts. You're making us all better cappers.

[ritehook]

Concur on Uconn, tho I got a pt less. My other two dogs TW are Memphis & Wash St

For those who are paying big money for touts, here's a guy, Pags, who posts gratis professionally reasoned picks. (And never gives two sides!) And a very courteous gent at that . . .

[wolves]

Ditto with everyone else, picks are great. Playing a few myself. Was late on the Georgia pick so not doing that one.
If you do not have the Georgia pick now, chances are you won't get it at a good price now, on my book it's down to 7.5.

[pags11]

phil,

thanks man...GL as always this week...

bet the house,

glad to hear we are on so many games together...BOL to you...

taurus,

outstanding...GL to you this week my friend...

wassymac,

thanks for the Purdue info. bud...GL with your plays this week...

milt,

thanks for your inquiry and your well wishes...my record for the year can be found at the end of last week's thread entitled "Pags Plays 10/20" if you want to look it up...

abacus,

no problem at all...glad you are having a good time...

austin,

good to hear...GL to you this week...

regularguy,

thanks for your thoughts and kind words...I'm sure you noticed that Nevada's defense gave up 18 total yards in the second half of last week's game and they still have all WAC performer Ezra Butler out there...GL to you this week...

ritehook,

much appreciated friend...BOL to you this week...

wolves,

yeah, I originally made the line 7.5 so I can understand the downward line movement in that one...GL this week bro...

[pats3peat]

It seems hard to follow you this week with all the line changes

[pags11]

pats,

like I've said before, bet the game not just the line...I've posted my plays as soon as I've made them early in the week to help those interested out a bit more...do as you wish though my friend...

[regularguy]

Thanks for responding to my thoughts on the Nevada game, pags.

I did note that Nevada had a great 2d half defensively last week. I think that says alot about Chris Ault. Also, I see that Mauga's replacement is a guy who has been getting significant playing time at linebacker positions anyway (Jerome Johnson). I do believe that Nevada -- coach, replacement QB, maligned defense, resurgent O line -- are ready to put on a show at home.

I will have a play with you on Nevada in this game, and a few of the others too.

Have a good weekend!

[DrLuck]

stay hot pags good luck tomorrow

[Hemlock21]

UCONN loses by double digits this weekend.