Pags' Plays 10/27

**dave11486** · 10-21-07, 05:58 PM

Not gonna be able to sleep all week after reading this. I'm scared.

**pags11** · 10-21-07, 06:00 PM

dave,

I guess you are talking about the Ohio St. vs. Penn St. game?...

**dave11486** · 10-21-07, 06:03 PM

Yes I actually thought we'd be -3, but either way the magnitude of this game is huge. Penn State and Happy Valley are a tough combo.

**pags11** · 10-21-07, 06:11 PM

exactly dave...BOL to you this week...

**strictlywinners** · 10-21-07, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Fri. one unit play...

Fresno St. +6

Sat. all plays for 3 units...

Northwestern +13
North Carolina +7
Georgia +10
Penn St. +4.5
Connecticut +5.5
Texas Tech -12.5
Nevada -17

pags you have been doing absolutely incredible but do you think it is wise to post picks this early there could be injuries or weather conditions that might change your mind

**hawk 5** · 10-21-07, 06:27 PM

Took Ohio st. -3.5. With you on Northwestern. going to play some more of your picks, your too hot to lay off.

**pags11** · 10-21-07, 06:38 PM

strictlywinners,

I believe you have posted this question once before...I will be happy to go into detail at a later date as I can give you more detail in regards to me reading injury reports...regarding weather, I think totals are more greatly affected than sides...I've done things this way for a while now and it works for me, everyone has their own system and this is mine...

hawk,

GL on that one although I think it will be a tough battle to the end...thanks and GL...

**Checkerboard** · 10-21-07, 07:32 PM

Thanks for last week pags11! I teased your kennel again with a Winnipeg CFL cover. Good stuff buddy; continued good luck to you!

**strictlywinners** · 10-21-07, 08:35 PM

Originally posted by pags11

strictlywinners,

I believe you have posted this question once before...I will be happy to go into detail at a later date as I can give you more detail in regards to me reading injury reports...regarding weather, I think totals are more greatly affected than sides...I've done things this way for a while now and it works for me, everyone has their own system and this is mine...

hawk,

GL on that one although I think it will be a tough battle to the end...thanks and GL...

sounds good to me your amazing so keep doing what you do

**DrLuck** · 10-21-07, 09:09 PM

congrats on a great weekend... keep it rollin

**pags11** · 10-21-07, 11:22 PM

checkerboard,

many thanks...nice work...

strictlywinners,

thank you...will do...

drluck,

appreciate it sir...gonna keep plugging away...

**Cougar Bait** · 10-22-07, 06:56 AM

I rolled this weekend mostly thanks to your picks pags. I also jumped all over Purdue and Michigan. Do you have a lean on either Clemson -3.5 @ Maryland or Indiana getting 7 @ Wisconsin? Any input is appreciated. BTW I really like your Georgia, Connectuicut, and Texas Tech plays this week. GL

**apollo514** · 10-22-07, 03:36 PM

Pags, which online sportsbook offer the lines first for NCAAF? and is it a credible web site? I'm with sportsinteraction and they dont list ncaaf lines till tuesday or wednesday?

Thanks... Great weekend! In one word.... Awesome.

**Doc JS** · 10-22-07, 04:52 PM

Pags,

Do my eyes deceive me? Or do you have two picks with a - instead of a + in front of them?

If Pags is picking chalk, it must be for a good reason!!

**Teasem** · 10-22-07, 05:58 PM

Looks good, especially like Georgia and T Tech this week

**k2productions** · 10-22-07, 06:52 PM

UNREAL picks this past weekend PAGS. KUDOS to you and BOL this weekend.

**bearmz** · 10-22-07, 07:54 PM

Great week.

Damn, you're fast on picks. I'm still spanning the globe and crunching.

**TheGambler** · 10-22-07, 09:39 PM

hey pags, did bookmaker say anything about Fresno st. being a bad line? it seems that everyone opened at 4 and they were the only one at 6. that just seems like a huge difference.

**pags11** · 10-22-07, 10:21 PM

bet the house,

thank you...congrats on a good weekend...slightest of leans to Maryland and no real opinion on Indiana vs. Wisconsin...

apollo,

bookmaker (part of the CRIS family) is the first book to put out lines...yes, they are a credible book (currently rated A+ by SBR)...hope you don't mind me saying, but I personally wouldn't have my money with SIA, that's just me though...thanks very much for your kind words...

Doc JS,

lol...yeah, actually two favorites this week...I've played 2 favorites over the past three weeks and they've both covered convincingly...usually at this point during the year when I pick a favorite, I've got to really like the game (I'll elaborate more in my write-up on Thu.)...congrats on your success so far in BTP, I'm attempting to make my move to get up there with you guys here soon...

teasem,

thanks bud...BOL to you this week...

k2,

thank you...GL to you this week as well...

bearmz,

thanks man...hey everyone has their own style and I know your style has been succesful for many years...keep up the good work...

gambler,

funny you asked about that...because for the first time ever bookmaker released just the 3 weekday games like 30 to 40 secs ahead of the rest of the card...I was planning on a line of 3 to 4 points and making it a half unit play, although I said to myself if it somehow came out at 6, I would make it a full unit play...I've never ever heard of bookmaker renigging on a bet placed with opening lines, which is why they are so well-respected in the gambling community...

**DrLuck** · 10-23-07, 12:17 AM

pags,
what's your feel on USC this week? I know they've sucked ass all year but man that plus sign in front of their name ought to lite a fire... I think their OL|DL will be to much for Oregon that is IF they come to play... IMO Carrol will have his troops ready

**OrionSky** · 10-23-07, 01:14 AM

Hey pags, I'm a fairly new bettor and I'm new to the forums. I have definitely learned a lot by reading every ones posts. You mentioned sportsinsights.com, what do you use this site for? Do you check out the percentages here to see what the public is betting?

**cashflow50** · 10-23-07, 01:44 AM

just lovin all the plays but one. Can uconn score on these guys? offense didn't really impress me in the lou game. i guess of the conditions huh. oh well i'll look at it more.

**pags11** · 10-23-07, 03:04 AM

dr. luck,

it was very tempting to take USC +3 in this spot, but I just have too much respect for Oregon's team, especially at home...I just got done watching their game against Washington and am confident I will enjoy the game, I just won't have any action...sorry I don't have more of a lean for you...

orion,

yeah, sportsinsights monitors betting percentages compared with line movement...I don't use it at all in handicapping my games, being that most of my games are already played before any type of this tracking takes place...that being said, I do like following these percentages during the week, because it often indicates to me if I am on the sharp or square side...what I mean by that is books often look at who's betting first, rather than how many or how much money is being bet...sportsinsights is a very, very primitave way of tracking this...I say primative because we aren't at every online book or sportsbook actually tracking bets...also, as I stated before square sides often win and sharp sides often lose...over the long haul, however, it's better to be with the sharps...

cashflow,

I'm not sure how much of the Connecticut game you watched last week, but they did turn the ball over deep in Louisville territory twice I believe...also, Louisville's defense hasn't been nearly as terrible as it was at the beginning of the season...those two things, combined with the weather led to 24 points being scored...I guess the next question would be, how much is South Florida going to score on Connecticut, as their offense isn't exactly clicking right now...

**imgv94** · 10-23-07, 05:17 AM

pags I love those two favs you have.

You are very good when on favorites.

**Doc JS** · 10-23-07, 06:55 AM

Originally posted by imgv94

pags I love those two favs you have.

You are very good when on favorites.

IMGV,
Agree 100% !!!!

**austintx05** · 10-23-07, 01:13 PM

any lean on the BC/VT game?

Thanks amigo

**Hoja Verdes** · 10-23-07, 01:49 PM

pags, what is your current NCAAF record?

**The Nit** · 10-23-07, 03:32 PM

Originally posted by dave11486

Yes I actually thought we'd be -3, but either way the magnitude of this game is huge. Penn State and Happy Valley are a tough combo.

Just my presence at the game is worth at least a field goal. Pags, you can count on me screaming my lungs out when PSU is on defense. Go State (Penn State that is)!

The Nit

ps - I really need to think about this game some more but if I get a chance, I'll post my thoughts later in the week.

**LargeMouthBass** · 10-23-07, 04:50 PM

UConn's luck runs out this week. Last week, they covered due to that fair catch TD which shouldn't have counted. The week before, Virginia missed a 30 yard FG at the end. This week, their luck will run out facing a pissed off South Florida... South Florida by double digits...

**bearmz** · 10-23-07, 05:45 PM

Alright, with you on UNC, Geo, TT, and Nev. Was anti only on PSU, but last week when we differed you were right on. Like to throw these out at you: Kan, Hstn, USC, AzSt, and FLAT.

**pags11** · 10-23-07, 07:36 PM

imgv,

thanks man...

doc js,

appreciate it...

austin,

was going to take a look at V.T. if they came out a dog, but the line has me on the sidelines...

hoja,

I posted my record at the end of last week's thread if you'd like to look it up...

NIT,

good to hear...have fun at the game my friend...

bass,

posts like yours don't require much of a response...we'll see how things end up on Saturday...

bearmz,

good to hear we are on so many games together...slightest of leans to USC at +3 or more, the rest I have no real opinion on...sorry I can help you more...GL bud...

**pats3peat** · 10-23-07, 08:55 PM

GL pags

**pags11** · 10-23-07, 09:44 PM

pats,

thanks...GL to you as well this week...

**shrax4** · 10-23-07, 10:51 PM

Pags, since you are like a magic 8 ball in your own threads, can you hook me up with some winning lottery numbers?