Pags Plays 10/20

[taurus]

pags- looks like you got some good lines there.
one further question: do you post all of your plays ?
or do you play more games than you post ?
curious, because I play on more than I post.

[imgv94]

taurus,

Everything pags plays is on here..

[mshanedub420]

i bet on bodog, they arent showing the odds yet. where do you guys place your bets?

NCAAF lines post Tuesday @6 for bodog.

[DrLuck]

thanks for your help pags much appreicated

[pags11]

goodfella,

90% of my plays are made at bookmaker and matchbook (with the other 10% being at bet jamaica)...

bet the house,

I commented earlier in my thread that at +4 to +4.5 I'll make a half unit play on Rutgers...if the line stays where it is it will be a no play for me...

cashflow,

anytime you can get a weeknight home dog that has a chance to win the game outright, there's definitely some value, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable if the game was a point to a point and a half higher...

nit,

thanks for your comments regarding the PSU vs. Indiana game, you seem to know the Big 10 pretty well...a little piece of advice though, we don't use phrases like "no chance" or use the "L" word in my thread, because this is college football and ANYTHING can happen...GL to you this week...

taurus,

yeah, everything I play is on here bro...

imgv,

thanks man...

dr.luck,

no problem, hope it helped you out...

[Hemlock21]

-Pags

I figured I would compare my early leans to yours and see if were playing the same games. Unfortuantley the only two plays we have in common we disagree on. That sucks for me especially after I had a awful weekend. Now I'm worried.

Texas Tech waiting for +4.5(Crabtree vs Mizz secondary mismatch)
Wake -3 ( Wake should shut down Navy's running game)



-GL Pags

[pags11]

hemlock,

sorry to hear that we disagree on those two games...I'll get into the games more in my write-up on Thursday...GL to you...

[ntgarrett]

I am with you on Conn, Missouri & Navy... GL to us!

[pags11]

ntg,

glad we are on those three together...GL to you this week...

[tblues2005]

pags,

I am with you on some of your picks too, you have some good luck also.

[pags11]

tblues,

good to know we are some games together...as far as your luck comment goes, I just asssume all good gamblers need some from time to time...just remember when your constantly laying 7, 14, 17 points you're a lot more likely to be unlucky when you take those same points...

[puttn4par]

Hey Pags???

I like your plays, but lets get down to business for thursday..



Any thoughts on the 2 games??????

[bearmz]

So this is where you roost. Glad I found it. Had this site buried on my favs for a long time and hit it LW and your picks sealed a coupla Ws for me. Thanks.
This has been a helluva college season. Constantly having to revamp my outlooks.
Here's a few I'm really liking TW:
Temp, Kan, Nev, TT, Ky, and Mich. Leans to NB, AZ, LSU and CSU.
Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Great work, pags

[The Nit]

True pags - "no chance" is a little strong verbage.

My point was that it's turnovers that continue to determine this team's success (or lack thereof). They've won and covered games with 3+ turnovers this year (ND is an example).

However, they lost both the Michigan and Illinois games because of turnovers in huge spots and I continue to believe talent-wise, they were the better teams in both games. Of course, talent doesn't mean everything in sports.

What is the "l" word? I must be missing something.

[imgv94]

Hottest thread on SBR..

Although pags is killing it, he is still humble goodfella.

[cashflow50]

props to the man

[Aces]

I like your Auburn play. As bad as it hurts me to do it my play for the weekend is Tenn Vols. I hate to do it but its to good to pass up.

[imgv94]

Aces,

I don't like seeing you on Tenn. I was hoping you were on Bama. Feeling a lot less confident about my Bama wager now.

[Aces]

I love Bama but I cant play them this week.

[pags11]

puttn4par,

not going to get involved in either of the two games on Thu...sorry I don't have stronger opinions for you...

bearmz,

good to see you friend...glad you found me...I always enjoy reading your stuff at the RX...I'm on the other side of Texas Tech and LSU...no opinions on Nevada, Temple, Nebraska and CSU...slightetest of leans to Colorado, Kentucky, Illinois and Stanford...GL to you this week...

Nit,

it's really Indiana's lack of a running game that concerns me, other than that I think they are a pretty solid club...I just can't warrant Penn St. being a TD plus favorite in this spot and am willing to take my chances with Indiana here at home...the "l" word is L-O-C-K, we don't use that in this thread...BOL to you...

imgv,

appreciate that bro...hope you are getting your situation with wagerweb worked out...you the man..

cashflow,

thank you sir...

aces,

good to hear that you like the Auburn play as I know you know the SEC very well...GL to you as well this week...

[bmac]

I like your style.
Hope we cash on Navy and Missouri and Mishigan St.
As always great stuff and BOL pags.....

[pags11]

thank you bmac...GL to you too this week...

[Patrick McIrish]

Pags, good luck man, on UConn with you.

[pags11]

Patrick,

good to see you over here...glad that we are on Connecticut together...GL bud...

[apollo514]

Pags, I've been looking at your plays for the last 2 weeks.... its impresive!. I dont bet much, but it makes it more interesting when watching the game. I was wondering if you only had to pick 1 or 2 best bet plays for this weekend which one would they be.

Thanks.

[pags11]

apollo,

thank you...I bet all these games for the same ammount each week, although my unit size still varies based on the week...sorry I can't help you more...

I'll be posting my write-up in about an hour...

[pags11]

Hello board,

Here are my plays for the week:

Indiana +10

Indiana will need to shake of their poor defensive performance last week against Michigan St. and get the home crowd fired up to face Penn St. this week. I like this spot for Indiana as they catch Penn St. in only their 3rd road game of the year (0-2 in their first two). Also, Penn St. has Ohio St. on deck and they could get caught looking ahead. One interesting stat I read this week is that Indiana leads the entire country in sacks. This is very important to note as they will need to put heat on Penn St. Anthony Morelli all day. Despite Indiana’s performance defensively last week, they are actually pretty solid defensive team. Offensively, Indiana will have to move the ball primarily through the air, although QB Kelen Lewis can create plays with his feet. He will look for big play receiver, James Hardy, to come up with some big catches in this one. Look for DB/ KR Porter to make some key plays on special teams. I’ll take Indiana and the points in this one.

Navy +4

Navy is just one of those teams that continues to fly under the public radar, regardless of the fact that they’ve been to five bowl games in a row. Maybe it’s because they don’t play a lot on TV, maybe it’s because they don’t have the fastest or strongest athletes. The bottom line for me with this team is that they are extremely well coached and seem to find a way to cover the number consistently (especially as underdogs). I’ve stated before that Wake Forest as a favorite has really struggled under Jim Grobe (6-20) and it is in part due to their conservative style, combined with how they seem to play to the level of their opponent. I like the way Navy got their passing game going last week vs. Pitt and Paul Johnson does a great job mixing in creative running plays. If Navy can contain Riley Skinner and WR Kenny Moore, they should be able to make this a very competitive game. I’ll take Navy plus the points again here.

Virginia +5.5

Each week I watch Virginia I become more impressed. I can’t say that I’m a huge fan of Al Groh, but I don’t mind taking him here with his team being an underdog. I’m as impressed with Howie Long’s kid, Chris, as any defensive lineman I’ve seen so far this year. Virginia’s strength on defense is with their defensive line. Their front four creates tremendous pressure on opposing QB’s. I look for them do this vs. back-up QB Chris Turner as he’s making his second ever start. I’ve read a lot of reports about Maryland’s offensive line being banged up, which could create some problems in this one for Maryland. Also Maryland’s best defensive player, E.J. Henderson, is questionable for this game (and Maryland was already having depth issues at the linebacker position). QB Jamal Sewell is starting to grow on me, as is their mix of RB’s they’ve been using since the injury to Cedric Peerman. Maryland does have some playmakers on offense which should keep this game interesting, but ultimately Virginia’s strength on both sides of the lines will be the difference. It’s Virginia and the points for me in this hard fought ACC battle.

Michigan St. +17

Michigan St. comes into this game as hot on offense as any team in the country. I respect Ohio St.’s defensive unit, but I’m not sure they’ve faced an offensive unit as explosive as what Michigan St. brings into Columbus this weekend. RB’s Javon Ringer and Jehuu Caulcrick are as talented of a backfield as there is in the country. Ringer is also very skilled at catching the ball out of the backfield and Caulcrick is good to have as a short yardage/ goal line back. WR Devin Thomas continues to have an outstanding season as both a receiving and running threat. Look for Michigan St. to get him a lot of touches. If Ohio St. focuses too much on those three players, look for TE Kellen Davis to make some tough catches over the middle. QB Bryan Hoyer will have to make quick decisions and if nothing is there, he should get rid of the ball and limit the negative plays for Michigan St.’s offense. Michigan St. will have to find ways to get stops against the Ohio St. offense. It appears that RB Chris Wells is hobbled due to an ankle injury, so they won’t be as deep as normal at that position. Michigan St.’s strength on defense is with their front four, and it will be imperative that they put pressure on Ohio St. QB Boeckman so he doesn’t complete deep balls to his big play receiver, Brian Robiski.


Auburn +11.5

As I stated last week, I truly believe that Auburn is playing as good of football as any team in the SEC right now. Their defense has given up 17 points total in their last three games. They are also starting to get healthier now on the defensive side of the ball, which they will definitely need when they face LSU Saturday night. Much is made that Auburn can’t move the ball on offense, but I just don’t see things that way. RB Brad Lester ran very well and he has three other talented backs (Tate, Fannin and Burns) to share carries with. QB Brandon Cox continues to manage the game for Auburn very efficiently, not forcing throws and taking what the defense will give him. Auburn has got to be better on third downs this week than they were last week vs. Arkansas. Look for WR Rodgerigus Smith to make some big catches to keep the chains moving vs. LSU. LSU has some injuries to their defensive backfield, which could open up some throws for Cox as the game develops. Offensive, LSU has become very reliant on their run game and as we saw last week, that is the strength of the Auburn defense. If Auburn can slow the game down by containing LSU’s run game, they will attempt to force QB Flynn into third and long situations which could be a problem due to his accuracy so far this year. I also really like the coaching match up here between Tubberville vs. Miles. I’ll take Auburn and the points and hold on here.

Miami FL +6.5

Doesn’t this game always seem to come down to the fourth quarter and one team is kicking a field goal to try and beat the other team? I know this may be some very basic logic, but what you have to understand about when these two teams meet is throw all of the stats, standings and everything else out the window. This is just a good old fashion rivalry game. As most of you know, I’ve been against Miami the last three weeks when they were favorites. I do like them here vs. FSU in the role of an underdog. Their conservative play style makes it very difficult to lay points with them, but at the same time it can keep them in this game. I like what I’ve seen from head coach Randy Shannon; I do think he’s the right guy long term for this program. Much has been made of the coaching staff changes this past off-season with the FSU program. I’m not sure about you guys, but I haven’t really noticed that much of a difference (other than the increase in the FSU payroll). QB Kyle Wright will need to make good decisions managing the game, and Miami will have to be creative with their play calling on offense to play field position in this one. If they do so, I believe their defense can force QB Xavier Lee into some bad decisions in this game (partly due to FSU’s non-existent run game). I look for a low scoring, close, hard fought game here. It’s Miami and the points once again.

Missouri -4

I’ll just give you my thoughts from another thread:

“as far as your picks go, I don't disagree with any of them except for obviously Texas Tech...all your points are valid, but you fail to mention the lack of run game from Texas Tech (which will lead to turnovers in this one), their suspect ATS road record in conference (also 0-2 straight up and ATS in their last 2 trips to Columbia) and how they've given up an average of 36.5 points their last two road games (and with all due respect to Oklahoma St.'s offense, Missouri's is even more potent...hell a putrid Rice offense put up 24 points on Texas Tech's defense--not to mention that they fired their defensive coordinator a couple of weeks ago, definitely not a sign of a team coming together), and the fact that Missouri is undefeated ATS this year (not a trend I'd feel comfortable going against)...lastly, lets look at schedule strength...Texas Tech has played: SMU (terrible), UTEP (average at best), Rice (terrible), Oklahoma St. (good home team, good offense, terrible defense), Northwestern St. (are you serious Mike Leach?), Iowa St. (terrible), Texas A&M (talented, but a below average Big 12 team at this point) ...Missouri has played: Illinois (surprise of the Big 10 this year), Ole Miss (improved SEC team, especially at home that Florida and Alabama were lucky to escape out of Oxford with wins), Western Michigan (arguably the most talented team in the MAC), Illinois St. (terrible), Nebraska (talented but terrible, but Missouri did beat the hell out of them), then OU (one of the best teams in the country that they played toe to toe with for 3 1/2 quarters)...say what you want about Gary Pinkel, but they guy is covering the number with his team and he has the more talented overall team in this one...Mike Leach has Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree (impressive, but he's just one player), Danny Amendola (good possession receiver) and Shannon Woods (good scat back, but not better than Tony Temple)...I'm not sure where to start with Missouri's offense, but honestly I'd take Jeremy Maclin over Crabtree as an overall talent, not just based on stats...Missouri has two of the best TE's in the country (Rucker and Coffman, which by the way Texas Tech doesn't even use their tight end much)...if you are able to cover all of those players, then you still have to deal with WR's Franklin, Saunders and Alexander. OK, let's just say that Leach uses his Master's in football or whatever the hell he after he was a failed attorney to figure out how to defend ALL of those players...then you have to contend with the mobility of Chase Daniel...I've been handicapping college football for 23 years now, and I'm not sure I've ever seen an offense as difficult to stop as the one Missouri possesses...not to mention, I'd take Missouri's defense over Texas Tech's (regardless of what the stats say, because as I've stated previously Texas Tech's strength of schedule has inflated their defensive numbers)...lastly, those that think that Missouri will somehow be bummed after their loss last week to OU are mistaken...the way they looked at that game was a great character building game, if they came out of Norman with a loss they would still be OK, as they still have a legit chance to win the Big 12 North (a team goal) and also get a re-match with OU in the Big 12 Title game...”...just one thing to note is that Jimmy Jackson replaces Tony Temple in the line-up as he won't be able to go in this one...with Jackson, just think Temple without the fumbles...

Good luck to all.

pags11

[Wassymac]

As always great stuff Pags. Your plays and insight have helped save me thus far since I can't pick my own nose.

Good luck this week

[Teasem]

Good as always

[austintx05]

with you on navy and uconn...

[yahoonino]

wsex got michigan st at +19

wsex got michigan state at +19 should i jump all over that number???

[pags11]

wassymac,

thanks...hang in there bro, you have good handicapping skills...just a matter of time before it all clicks for you bro...

teasem,

thank you...GL to you this week...

austin,

good to hear as I respect your insight...

yahoo,

if I recommended the play at +17, I obviously do at +19 as well...BOL to you this week...

[cashflow50]

pags whats your thoughts on the under in the uconn/lou game? i've read that it's gonna rain cats and dogs. an inch a minute.

[pags11]

cashflow,

sorry I didn't get to your post sooner...not really a totals player, didn't even know what the total was tonight...whatever you decided, hope things went well for you tonight...

[dante1]

Pags

Just saw your plays tonight, actually today it is 2:30 in the morning.

I have all the same except one so I wouldn't mind at all if you sweep. Good luck.