I'm trying something different to get ready for the Bowl Games.
Tightened up the stats used in the System to find the strongest correlation to winning games. Using last week's games, I found 17 games that the fit criteria I'm testing this week.
(VERY SMALL SAMALL SIZE)
Those 17 games results were
S/U 15-2 ATS 14-3
SP+ 15-2 ATS 13-4
Stop Rate S/U 14-3 ATS 14-3
SP+ (ESPNhigher ranked team)
Stop Rate (higher defensive Stop Rate)
S/U Group
LSU-7', SMU-18', Hawaii-4', UCLA-14', BCollege+6', La Tech-13', Boise St-14', Okl St13', Kentucky-10', Texas-3', Utah-6, Liberty-9',NMST-2' and Duke+1' all won S/U and ATS. Memphis-19' won S/U but lost ATS. Kansas St-1' and James Madison-9' both lost S/U and ATS.
SP+ Group
Same as the above in the S/U. The 4 teams that were ranked higher in the SP+ catagory that lost ATS were Geo Tech-6' (BC), Kansas St-1' (Ariz St),James Madison-9' (App St) and Memphis-10' (ECar).
Stop Rate
Old Dom+13' (La Tech), Colorado+13' (Okl St) and Sam Houston++2 (NMST) all had the higher rank in defensive stop rate, but they all lost S/U and ATS.
App St+9' (James Madison) and Ariz St+1' both ranked higher, winning both S/U and ATS. East Carolina+10' (Memphis) lost S/U but won ATS.
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Week 1 Prepping for the Bowls
Top Plays
N Dame-29' at Navy
N Dakota St-25' at UTEP
Utah-6' at Cinn
W Forest-12' vs Virg
Ohio St-6' at USC
Texas-19' vs Miss St
Missouri-9' at Arkansas
Boise St-11' vs Texas St
Michigan-14' at Rutgers
Top Leans
SMU-9' at Syr
Duke-6' vs BC
So Fla-8' vs UAB
WMich-13' vs B Green
Louis-21 vs Stanford
Georgia-10' vs Fla
Okl St-9' at Iowa St
UNLV-24' vs No Illinois
Lean to DOGS
UConn+2' at AForce
App St+3 at Geo So
Calif+7' at NCST
Maryland+3 vs Illinois
Auburn+12' at Miss
Colorado+3' vs Kansas St
Minn+20' at Indy
Clem+8' at Fla St
Nevada+23' at UCLA
Northwestern+4 at Oreg
Ariz St++15' at BYU
do your homework!
good luck 2 all!
Tightened up the stats used in the System to find the strongest correlation to winning games. Using last week's games, I found 17 games that the fit criteria I'm testing this week.
(VERY SMALL SAMALL SIZE)
Those 17 games results were
S/U 15-2 ATS 14-3
SP+ 15-2 ATS 13-4
Stop Rate S/U 14-3 ATS 14-3
SP+ (ESPNhigher ranked team)
Stop Rate (higher defensive Stop Rate)
S/U Group
LSU-7', SMU-18', Hawaii-4', UCLA-14', BCollege+6', La Tech-13', Boise St-14', Okl St13', Kentucky-10', Texas-3', Utah-6, Liberty-9',NMST-2' and Duke+1' all won S/U and ATS. Memphis-19' won S/U but lost ATS. Kansas St-1' and James Madison-9' both lost S/U and ATS.
SP+ Group
Same as the above in the S/U. The 4 teams that were ranked higher in the SP+ catagory that lost ATS were Geo Tech-6' (BC), Kansas St-1' (Ariz St),James Madison-9' (App St) and Memphis-10' (ECar).
Stop Rate
Old Dom+13' (La Tech), Colorado+13' (Okl St) and Sam Houston++2 (NMST) all had the higher rank in defensive stop rate, but they all lost S/U and ATS.
App St+9' (James Madison) and Ariz St+1' both ranked higher, winning both S/U and ATS. East Carolina+10' (Memphis) lost S/U but won ATS.
=====================
Week 1 Prepping for the Bowls
Top Plays
N Dame-29' at Navy
N Dakota St-25' at UTEP
Utah-6' at Cinn
W Forest-12' vs Virg
Ohio St-6' at USC
Texas-19' vs Miss St
Missouri-9' at Arkansas
Boise St-11' vs Texas St
Michigan-14' at Rutgers
Top Leans
SMU-9' at Syr
Duke-6' vs BC
So Fla-8' vs UAB
WMich-13' vs B Green
Louis-21 vs Stanford
Georgia-10' vs Fla
Okl St-9' at Iowa St
UNLV-24' vs No Illinois
Lean to DOGS
UConn+2' at AForce
App St+3 at Geo So
Calif+7' at NCST
Maryland+3 vs Illinois
Auburn+12' at Miss
Colorado+3' vs Kansas St
Minn+20' at Indy
Clem+8' at Fla St
Nevada+23' at UCLA
Northwestern+4 at Oreg
Ariz St++15' at BYU
do your homework!
good luck 2 all!