Dapper Dan Picks:
NCAAF Posted Records:
2012: 80-58 (+22.3 units)
2013: 96-97 (+10.62 units)
2014: 66-87 (-27.55 units)
2015: 82-54 (+26.98 units)
2016: 65-67 (-5.37 units)
2017: 74-66 (+1.41 units)
2018: 72-90 (-20.19 units)
2019: 70-68 (+0.87 units)
2020: 70-64 (+1.63 units)
2021: 89-63 (+25.68 units)
2022: 56-62 (-18.86 units)
2023: 96-90 (-9.19 units)
2024: 111-90 (+7.64 units)
2025: 85-93 (-22.1 units)
Lifetime Total: 1112- 1071 (-6.13 units) (51%)
We have never been more “due” for a breakout year like we did in 2021. We have more experience, data, tools then ever…No excuses to not have a winning season. I will be more selective and not have as many plays then years past - throwing around 10 plays in a Saturday is too much volume. Find the bangers - fire away.
Week 0 Results: 2-0 +2.38 units
2026-27 Season Results: 2-0 +2.38 units
Week 1:
Gtech/Colorado Over 51 (-110)
Michigan State -9.5 (-119)
Week 1:
Gtech/Colorado Over 51 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
We have two teams with brand new offenses, but they bring in capable veterans and both teams were horrible on defense last year - no reason to believe it will be any different this first game. Gtech somehow acquired RB Justice Haynes from Michigan - he averaged 7.07 yards per carry last year at Michigan and gained 1000 yards before getting injured. He should FEAST on this Colorado defense that ranked #127th in ypc last year. Colorado brought in a new DC Chris Mauve who managed an average defense at Vtech the last few years - he will not have the same talent on this Colorado team - who only returns 8% of their defensive snaps (the 5th worst in FBS). Colorado’s offense is exciting as Deion snagged up OC Brennan Marion who spent 2023-24 leading a top 15 offense at UNLV with his explosive, tempo, misdirection two-back offense that should cause confusion for Gtech’s defense who struggled last season and brought in a new DC as well Jason Semore, who just coordinated an average defense the last few years for Southern Miss and Marshall before that. This should be a packed stadium with lots of new players so expect some mistakes which should hopefully lead to points in our favor. I think this one gets into the 60s.
Michigan State -9.5 (-119) Risking 1.19 units to win 1 units
Friday night, another game we’re playing with two re-built teams over the offseason (seems like the new trend with the transfer portal and I love it). The difference in this one is Toledo’s program WAS Jason Candle - spending 10 years over his tenure there with some really good seasons and talent - going 81-44 over that time. They bring in Mike Jacobs as the head coach - who spent the last 2 years coaching well, but at Mercer - he also brings 14 transfers from Mercer who were good but an FCS team is entirely different from the BIG 10 talent they will face. He will have a new OC, Chris Resiert from Gardner Webb, another FCS team but retains his same DC, Jahmal Brown from Mercer but I think they are only going to get a wake up call as this is another level of football. For Michigan State, we get the new hardened BIG 10 Pat Fitzgerald, finally getting a new home after being ousted at NW after 17 years over a ‘hazing scandal’ where he built a defensive powerhouse from 2008-2020.. He consistently led one of the strongest defenses and he got another great defensive mind to work with him, Joe Rossi, who spent 6 years as DC at Minnesota from (2018-23) and was a top 10 defense for a few of those years. I think Michigan State wins this game easily by 3+ TDs.
Week 0 Results:
UNC +9.5 (-110) W + 1unit
UNC ML (+275) .5x W +1.38 units