Thoughts on the M Tenn St vs Troy game? IN-GAME Discussion

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 11:38 AM

Tanner is out for Midd. Tenn tonight.........that's why the line is going up so fast.

**Nickelicious** · 10-06-09, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

Basically.....there is no reason in hell for Troy to be favored by more than a touchdown....WHY IS THIS SO? Can anyone explain. I'm locked in already with Midd. Tenn. St. but it's got me worried that the line has gone that high, when Troy really hasn't shown to be better than St. at all.

Is it just cause it's the only game on so everyone and their mother is taking the favorite who also happens to be a slightly bigger name and at home?

SOMEONE PLEASE EXPLAIN!!!!!!

Troy is favored like they are because they've beaten MTSU handily the past couple years, including 35-17 on the road last year (and 45-7 at home the year before). Troy has won 8 games three seasons in a row and MTSU has barely managed one winning season in the last seven years. Troy is also better known than a directional school from the bowels of Tennessee.

That said, this year isn't like the previous years. MTSU moved the ball pretty well against Clemson in their season opener (when Clemson was actually playing well), and have had an easy time scoring ever since. Though they have not been dominating weaker opponents, they shouldn't have much problem putting up points on Troy, which has been terrible on defense against both good and lousy opponents.

MTSU is a decent team for their level and should give Troy all they can handle. But their defense is also suspect and this could end up being a real shoot-out. After factoring in the revenge angle, which is all leaning for MTSU, I'll take the points and ride with the Blue Raiders.

**Nickelicious** · 10-06-09, 11:43 AM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

Tanner is out for Midd. Tenn tonight.........that's why the line is going up so fast.

Tanner has been out a couple weeks already and I don't see his absence being any factor in the line movement.

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 11:48 AM

I agree Nickelicious.

Midd Tenn beat Maryland AT Maryland..............Memphis at home...........N Texas at N Texas.........

Troy got ROLLED by Bowling Green and has played CLOSE against SHIT TEAMS this year.

Midd. Tenn seems to be the play here........so here is what I am going to do........

Taking Detroit Tigers ML for 3 Units..............Fading the Public
Taking Midd. Tenn +7 for 3 Units............Fading the Public.

Should be a good Tuesday for the Smack.

GL!

**Nickelicious** · 10-06-09, 11:50 AM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

I agree Nickelicious.

Midd Tenn beat Maryland AT Maryland..............Memphis at home...........N Texas at N Texas.........

Troy got ROLLED by Bowling Green and has played CLOSE against SHIT TEAMS this year.

Midd. Tenn seems to be the play here........so here is what I am going to do........

Taking Detroit Tigers ML for 3 Units..............Fading the Public
Taking Midd. Tenn +7 for 3 Units............Fading the Public.

Should be a good Tuesday for the Smack.

GL!

Hah, I like the Tigers, too. GL Smack!

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 11:51 AM

I think the D town gets it done today............

Just like Michigan State in the NCAA's......

Playing for something bigger than the team today.

Plus the added bonus of Fading the Public.

GL!

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 11:54 AM

with you on Midd. Tenn. St. but against you on on detroit. Don't see Minnesota losing this one at home especially after losing a one game playoff last year. Not to mention they are the hot team and Detroit is struggling, and their players are drunks that get beat up by their wives haha

**Fishhead** · 10-06-09, 11:56 AM

HERITAGE SPORTS PROMO TONINGT........

Its half time..YOU MAKE THE CALL!

Is your side going to hang on to make you a winner? If so, then let your wager ride and build your balance for the weekend. Did your team come out flat and you think you’d like to get out of your wager? Give us a call and get your money back in your account for another kick at the can!

* This promotion applies to straight wagers only. Maximum wager amount is $500. Totals, parlays, teasers and props are not eligible for this promotion.

** This promotion only applies to the NCAA Football game between Middle Tennessee State & Troy on Tuesday October 6th, 2009..

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 11:58 AM

Originally posted by Fishhead

HERITAGE SPORTS PROMO TONINGT........

Its half time..YOU MAKE THE CALL!

Is your side going to hang on to make you a winner? If so, then let your wager ride and build your balance for the weekend. Did your team come out flat and you think you’d like to get out of your wager? Give us a call and get your money back in your account for another kick at the can!

* This promotion applies to straight wagers only. Maximum wager amount is $500. Totals, parlays, teasers and props are not eligible for this promotion.

** This promotion only applies to the NCAA Football game between Middle Tennessee State & Troy on Tuesday October 6th, 2009..

WTF???? To me this means that for some reason they expect the score to be completely different to finish the game than it is at halftime. So they get all the losers (team up at half) to stay and the winners (team down at half) to cancel. Hope midd. tenn. st. is down at the half now haha

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 11:59 AM

It's just REALLY FISHY that Midd. Tenn is getting 7 points.

Kind of reminds me of a game that Hawaii played last week.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmm......................

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 12:00 PM

really really really really really fishy..............

**Cougar Bait** · 10-06-09, 12:01 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

Haven't looked at this game yet, but line move looks a lot like last week's La. Tech movement on game day...

**nick2060** · 10-06-09, 12:02 PM

I got Troy and Minny ML's on a parlay, just for action rly, so in other words, i rly hope smackdown loses tonight lol.

**MJT1212** · 10-06-09, 12:02 PM

i cant wait to move to vegas and walk the streets all day searching for an ideal line while mixing in some poker action to keep the bills paid with possible a few pass line and odds craps rolls...ahhhhh

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 12:03 PM

I agree Cougar.

Midd. Tenn is the better team...........but it's tough not to notice that line movement.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 12:06 PM

Yeah but SBR line still showing 55% on Troy here....so it's not RLM at least

**wal66** · 10-06-09, 12:12 PM

Not that any of these numbers are official mind you but where I get my public numbers from shows 64.3% Troy.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Not that any of these numbers are official mind you but where I get my public numbers from shows 64.3% Troy.

well if it's that high the line movement makes sense. But what are all those people looking at that would make them like Troy at such a high number? Must just be a bunch of people jumping on a home favorite when it's the only game on.

That's the only thing that makes sense to me, so I'm back to loving Midd. Tenn. St. tonight. I liked them a lot at 4.5, so at 7.5 I love them

**RoagBettor** · 10-06-09, 12:18 PM

The books are making it look like MTSU has no chance of winning this game. They are sucking the Troy backers in and trying to squeeze every penny left over from the weekend out of them.

They also know that most people who lost this weekend and want to recoup some of it back will not chase by betting on an underdog playing an away game. Hence making Troy look unbeatable tonight.

I wouldn't be surprised to see MTSU win this game outright. In fact, I think they will.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 12:24 PM

Yeah I'm on MTSU pretty big +7.5 but also on them ML at +240 as well

**Housemoney** · 10-06-09, 12:29 PM

I teased the game 6 points for even money, and took MTSU and the Under. Complete opposite of where Sports.com shows all the money going.

Good luck to everyone on the same sides.

**RoagBettor** · 10-06-09, 12:30 PM

Originally posted by Housemoney

I teased the game 6 points for even money, and took MTSU and the Under. Complete opposite of where Sports.com shows all the money going.

Good luck to everyone on the same sides.

Yep, I did the same. Unless the books are giving away free chicken dinners tonight then I think we're on the right side of both bets.

**spongerat** · 10-06-09, 12:30 PM

i like the over, these weekday games typically are much higher scoring than everyone predicts

**SmackdownV** · 10-06-09, 12:31 PM

I agree Roag............

Just have some pause at the moment based on the Hawaii game last week.........This is too similar right now.

**tbill11** · 10-06-09, 12:36 PM

Well the Hawaii game was a clear mismatch with RLM favoring Louisiana Tech. Here all of the factors are favoring MTSU. Just because the games were weekday games doesn't mean that they'll be the same hometeam blowout.

**scwical** · 10-06-09, 12:37 PM

Roag I agree with you. I think that is what "Vegas" is trying to in making Troy seem like a can't miss. Troy was a preet good choice at -4 but now at +7 or +7.5 for MTSU seem to be the pick for me.

**blackbeSSt** · 10-06-09, 12:40 PM

teased mtsu and under for me as well

**alex.blasscyk** · 10-06-09, 12:41 PM

Great point.

**stocker08** · 10-06-09, 12:41 PM

Troy at -7.5 pays out (-105) at 5dimes while MTSU at +7.5 pays (-115). That also falls in favor of MTSU.

I just put a small bet in on MTSU to win straight up. Pays out well at (+240).

**Cougar Bait** · 10-06-09, 12:50 PM

Page Not Found - Sports Insights

http://www.sportsinsights.com/spreadbasic.aspx?sport_id=11&v_nss=301&v_date=10/6/2009&gtype=4

Click on "Switch team" button at the bottom to see bets on the other team and as they come in based on the line change. Right now, shows 62% on Troy.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 01:37 PM

according to SBR lines it's getting closer to 50/50 so I'm thinking that line did get inflated by squares just looking to bet a weekday home favorite with two teams they know nothing about. In situations like that instead of doing some research on both teams they just assume that the favorite is better so they take em.

I'm back to LOVING my Midd. Tenn. pick against the spread and ML

**DennisT** · 10-06-09, 01:54 PM

Folks we;re all over the place. Troy has the better Q.B Their O.Line is more experinced and their at home. Am I missing something. Still like Troy minus 41/2.

**Dbldown11** · 10-06-09, 01:57 PM

Originally posted by DennisT

Folks we;re all over the place. Troy has the better Q.B Their O.Line is more experinced and their at home. Am I missing something. Still like Troy minus 41/2.

Well for starters the line is 7 or 7.5. and secondly based on both teams lines of work so far this year I'd think the edge goes to Mid. Tenn. St.

**Nickelicious** · 10-06-09, 01:57 PM

Can't believe all the unders in this thread. Seems like an easy over to me (and a couple others here).

**infamousbacardi** · 10-06-09, 02:05 PM

I made my pick a couple hours ago, happy to come here and see you guys backing the same thing I've got really...I'm fading the public in a great situation...I've got MTSU @ +13.5 and UNDER 63...I think we are solid here. The o/u # is a crapshoot...so let's hope we hit that one. BOL everyone on w/e you play!