Fred The Hammer's CFB Season Thread

[Fred The Hammer]

Still like UCF -14.5?

Really more of a totals or dogs kind of bettor, but I do think they cover. I'm seeing -14 on DK, but haven't shopped it yet. DK has UCF -6.5 (-250) and UCF -9.5 (-175). Def throw in -6.5 in a parlay or two, but nothing major.

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Ball State/James Madison Over 56.5 (-106) Fan Duel. Also Over 56 (-115) Caesars

Finally pulled the trigger on this one. JM is in that spot where they just got some Top 25 votes and they'll want to pour it on. I went to our casino here to watch the game w/friends and saw 56 at Caesars so bought some more. $215 total. I liked Over 46.5 Army/Temple, but didn't pull the trigger.

Can't decide on TCU/Kansas Over and Stanford/Clemson Over....maybe both? I also like Stanford +22.5 I saw earlier somewhere. They impressed me against Cuse. I know Clemson in Death Valley is a big step up, but its not like old Clemson either.

Other leans I like:

Fresno ML +110 over UNLV. I'm no expert on UNLV, but I watched Kansas/UNLV and that QB that just quit ran for his life that entire game. Took a bunch of hits and made some long runs. He was their leading rusher as the QB. Big loss while Fresno's guy is experienced and threw 4 tds vs UNLV last year

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

3 team parlay with 50% boost FD (+507) $50 to win $254

Purdue +10.5
TCU/Kansas Over 53.5
Stanford +24.5

Nebraska is 1-9 ats in their last 10 as a B10 fav....that and I like Purdue's running back Hockabee or whatever his name is. Weather should be rainy and windy somewhat. Taking TCU game under the key number of 54 and the last one is Stanford +24.5. Bought a few points and they impressed me physically vs TCU and Cuse. I think they'll score some and hang around

I'll probably play 2-3 more games tomorrow or props. I like that S Alabama QB at Over 239.5 and they'll be chasing LSU. LSUs defense looks pretty bad too.

I like Washington tonight too. Probably bet it live and I see how they look. Wash is a long way from home, but their QB Will Rogers has been playing cfb forever and their defense is very active

[Fred The Hammer]

Lost $120 on Washington. That was f ridiculous. Outgain them by 200 yards, but miss 3 FGs and also raped by the refs before half. They blocked a FG before half, but a kid gets overly excited and runs into the field of play AFTER the block and somehow it gives TCU a first down? Of course they scored a TD right after. That should be Washington ball because it didn't matter who recovered it, then penalize them. BS

Adding 2 team parlay. $140 (+130 with boost)

Indiana ML (-275) MGM
TCU/Kansas Over 55.5 (-160) buying a few points

Maryland is dangerous, but I think IU is playing too well. Rourke is getting alot of time to throw and their def is pretty good too. The Ponds kid in the secondary is going to be a starting CB in the NFL. All over Hoover passing as previously noted and that game should be a typical TCU shootout

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Jack Bech TCU 77+ receiving (-110) DK $150

Thats the kid I needed to look up. 6'2 and 215 and just hits his routes and gets the ball. Look at these 3 games below! Their other game was a blowout and he didn't play much or need to do anything. He's going to play in the NFL. Reminds me of Brock Bowers or a broke mans Cooper Kupp. I'm definitely dumping more on this if James Madison Over blows up early. JM's 1:30 kickoff vs TCU's 3:30 kickoff

Stanford 6 for 139
UCF 9 for 200
SMU 8 for 166

[Fred The Hammer]

Laying off Colorado. TCUs defense is shit and they still were hammering UCF until a late rally. Also if Hoover can throw for 400 yds & 4 TDs on them then Sanders could light them up too. No play

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Ball State/James Madison Over 56.5 (-106) Fan Duel. Also Over 56 (-115) Caesars

Finally pulled the trigger on this one. JM is in that spot where they just got some Top 25 votes and they'll want to pour it on. I went to our casino here to watch the game w/friends and saw 56 at Caesars so bought some more. $215 total. I liked Over 46.5 Army/Temple, but didn't pull the trigger.

Can't decide on TCU/Kansas Over and Stanford/Clemson Over....maybe both? I also like Stanford +22.5 I saw earlier somewhere. They impressed me against Cuse. I know Clemson in Death Valley is a big step up, but its not like old Clemson either.

Other leans I like:

Fresno ML +110 over UNLV. I'm no expert on UNLV, but I watched Kansas/UNLV and that QB that just quit ran for his life that entire game. Took a bunch of hits and made some long runs. He was their leading rusher as the QB. Big loss while Fresno's guy is experienced and threw 4 tds vs UNLV last year

[Fred The Hammer]

Don't know why I pissed away $50 on shitty Purdue, but lesson learned. Neb was 1-9 ats as B10 fav, but sometimes you have to believe your eyes and ignore stats


Hoover had 135 passing 1Q and typical shit TCU def keeps him throwing it

[Fred The Hammer]

My buddy told me McCord had 230 1H or whatever, but idk if they had a prop vs Holy Cross? Hard to hit those because the game gets out of hand and they run it then pull him. McCord and Hoover are $ every fkn week though

[Fred The Hammer]

I put $60 on TCU ML live MGM and they switch it from -105 to -115 while its spinning? Thats bs

Still like Hoover > Daniels though. Daniels throwing is way off this year for whatever reason. Kansas gets 2h KO though. Like to see some points here from TCU

Hoover throws a deep floater and almost ends up a Pick-6. 2nd week in a row, but he'll get it back which is money for Passing Overs

Big stop!!! Lets Go TCU 21-17 at half

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Jack Bech TCU 77+ receiving (-110) DK $150

Thats the kid I needed to look up. 6'2 and 215 and just hits his routes and gets the ball. Look at these 3 games below! Their other game was a blowout and he didn't play much or need to do anything. He's going to play in the NFL. Reminds me of Brock Bowers or a broke mans Cooper Kupp. I'm definitely dumping more on this if James Madison Over blows up early. JM's 1:30 kickoff vs TCU's 3:30 kickoff

Stanford 6 for 139
UCF 9 for 200
SMU 8 for 166

2 TDs 1st half to boot. Kid is a monster. Catches the ball and moves the pile like that Puka kid on the Rams

[Fred The Hammer]

Told my buddy about Bech and he got 90+ (+150). Jeez sometimes I don't have enough balls to get a little greedy. Only 13 more yards

Coach interviewed at half said "He wants to catch the ball more then they want to stop him from catching it" They keep it simple in Texas

Didnt know he was w LSU. How'd they f that up?

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Lopez Over 226.5 passing (-115) S Alabama MGM $115

This lefty can sling it and LSUs secondary isn't very good. Should get it in garbage time

Stanford up to +23.5. Probably buy to +24.5 and play them. They're pretty athletic and QB can run/pass

[Fred The Hammer]

Couldn't log in earlier, but 2-2 today so down slightly.

Adding:

Josh Allen 232+ passing (-110) FD $220 to win $200


Riding the MVP to throw it around the yard. They said Balt has allowed every opponent so far to crack 230 passing

[Fred The Hammer]

Well NFL didn't go my way, but still decent weekend. Plus $330 I think. All together I'm up like $2100 with Indiana being 1/3 of that. I'm also getting ready to get paid on my Indiana Futures Over 5.5 wins. Hopefully DK won't hold the money? $540 to win $400 so it will be nice to get $940 next weekend!

Adding: 4 teamer MGM $40 to get back $625

Titans +130 ML
Tigers/Houston Under 6.5
TCU -16.5
Indiana -13.5

Basically had to have an excuse to put something on tonight for action. I'm not doing much on NFL, but Miami sucks.


Adding:

TCU -16 DK $132-$120
Indiana -13.5 MGM $132-$120

Very rarely play big favorites, but both these offenses are way way way too good for their opponent to deal with. Houston and Northwestern are 2 of the worst offenses in CFB

Also of note TCU Hoover and Cuse McCord both play this Friday. Only problem is Hoover will be juiced to 315 or something and they'll probably blow them out while UNLV will probably run for 200+ on Cuse and play keep away

[Shark]

Well NFL didn't go my way, but still decent weekend. Plus $330 I think. All together I'm up like $2100 with Indiana being 1/3 of that. I'm also getting ready to get paid on my Indiana Futures Over 5.5 wins. Hopefully DK won't hold the money? $540 to win $400 so it will be nice to get $940 next weekend!

they will pay it as soon as it hits. I had them pay out some baseball futures with a month left in the season.

[Fred The Hammer]

they will pay it as soon as it hits. I had them pay out some baseball futures with a month left in the season.

Thanks. I thought so, but I haven't played a fb future in a while.

[Fred The Hammer]

Well NFL didn't go my way, but still decent weekend. Plus $330 I think. All together I'm up like $2100 with Indiana being 1/3 of that. I'm also getting ready to get paid on my Indiana Futures Over 5.5 wins. Hopefully DK won't hold the money? $540 to win $400 so it will be nice to get $940 next weekend!

Adding: 4 teamer MGM $40 to get back $625

Titans +130 ML
Tigers/Houston Under 6.5
TCU -16.5
Indiana -13.5

Basically had to have an excuse to put something on tonight for action. I'm not doing much on NFL, but Miami sucks.


Adding:

TCU -16 DK $132-$120
Indiana -13.5 MGM $132-$120

Very rarely play big favorites, but both these offenses are way way way too good for their opponent to deal with. Houston and Northwestern are 2 of the worst offenses in CFB

Also of note TCU Hoover and Cuse McCord both play this Friday. Only problem is Hoover will be juiced to 315 or something and they'll probably blow them out while UNLV will probably run for 200+ on Cuse and play keep away

Won another $120 on the Titans live and a little on the Tigers Under. Good start to the week. If TCU takes care of business then I can possibly hedge Indiana

Adding:

Same Game Parlay MGM

TCU ML/Bech TCU 80+ receiving (-105) $210 to win $200


That Bech kid is a beast. Well over 100 in every competitive game. Hopefully they won't blow out Houston 35-0 at half and pull him. I don't think so.

McCord is going NFL, but I'm not sure about tonight? In fact I like UNLV. They'll run the ball and play keep away. Stanford basically controlled both lines on Cuse. Same thing w/Hoover. Being a big fav isn't the right formula for passing yardage. TCU is working on running the ball and balance which isn't what we want

The sleeper QB I haven't played yet is Holstein/Pitt. NC already gave up 4-5 TD passes to the James Madison kid. Only option for NC is to run their stud RB and play keep away. His yardage is interesting too.

I'll have several more plays by 11am Eastern tomorrow

GL. Go Frogs!! I used to live down there, but they had a shit program back then 1987-98

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Padres to win WS (+700) BET365 $75

I made a bundle on the Nats when they won the WS. They beat LA and then it was all downhill after that. Padres get LA and I think history repeats itself

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Holstein Pitt 288+ passing (-125) Bet365 $160 to win $128

Pena Cuse 63+ receiving (-115) MGM $172 to win $150


Late one tonight is Cuse/UNLV. I think UNLV wins and Cuse has to throw it alot. Do I ride with McCord even though they keep moving up his yards or his best WR Pena? Pena is on an upswing. These are the 3 games Cuse played where they needed him:

78 vs Ohio
88 vs G Tech
101 vs Stanford on 10 catches

Holstein, who I already mentioned, has hit 300+ in every competitive game. It should be another shootout tomorrow and NCs pass defense is garbage.

[Fred The Hammer]

TCU slowed my roll for sure. They sucked, but atleast Pena came through. If McCord's arm doesn't fall off he's going to be a good NFL QB

Adding:

Alabama/Vandy Over 52.5 (-125) MGM $250 to win $200


Once again MGM has the best line. I was trying to get under 54 since its a key number, but -125 is affordable so took that.

Vandy can score a little so there should be some points. I see something like 41-20 Alabama

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Holstein Pitt 288+ passing (-125) Bet365 $160 to win $128

Pena Cuse 63+ receiving (-115) MGM $172 to win $150


Late one tonight is Cuse/UNLV. I think UNLV wins and Cuse has to throw it alot. Do I ride with McCord even though they keep moving up his yards or his best WR Pena? Pena is on an upswing. These are the 3 games Cuse played where they needed him:

78 vs Ohio
88 vs G Tech
101 vs Stanford on 10 catches

Holstein, who I already mentioned, has hit 300+ in every competitive game. It should be another shootout tomorrow and NCs pass defense is garbage.

[Fred The Hammer]

TCU slowed my roll for sure. They sucked, but atleast Pena came through. If McCord's arm doesn't fall off he's going to be a good NFL QB

Adding:

Alabama/Vandy Over 52.5 (-125) MGM $250 to win $200


Once again MGM has the best line. I was trying to get under 54 since its a key number, but -125 is affordable so took that.

Vandy can score a little so there should be some points. I see something like 41-20 Alabama

Easy peasy. Can't believe Vandy won though

[Fred The Hammer]

Big day!! Went to Cincinnati to play in a poker tournament. Got bounced fairly early, but tilt bet a little more on Indiana -13. Northwestern cut it to 3 early 4Q and I thought I was f'd, but they rallied to cover!

Hit one little parlay with Holstein passing/Rourke Indiana passing

Only loser today was Rourke passing/Klubnak or whatever his name is from Clemson. $75 to win $262 and I lost by 2 f'n yards. Florida State couldn't stop the run so Clemson just ran out the 4Q. The number was 236.5 and he had 235. We were driving back, but I think he had 235 the whole 4Q or atleast 12 min left or something. That sucks, but overall these QB college props are like printing money

Also learned something today:

NO COLLEGE PROP BETS ALLOWED IN OHIO. WOW? I kept wondering why I couldn't get a line on gameday?

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Just a little MMA action for fun

Alex P Main Event 2nd round KO MGM +425/Commanders ML $25 to win $200


Joe Flacco Colts Over 237.5 passing (-115) MGM $158 to win $141


Colts have no Jon Taylor and no Richardson. What they do have is a old man with a cannon and some good WRs vs a shitty pass rush/pass defense. Colts O-line is always solid too. He should have time to beat these guys. Michael Pittman and Downs is a solid slot man plus Alex Pierce is developing and the rookie Adonai Mitchell is a blazer with talent. I think Flacco cracks this number. Got a boost on $20 of it so not a bad payout.

[Fred The Hammer]

Cashed my Indiana future on DraftKings. Over 5.5 for $540 to win $400. Indiana is the first team in cfb to gain bowl eligibility

Only problem is DK took my debit card off the withdrawals? Never understand how they take money, but not return it with the same process? Have to go to the bank and get my account #s, etc.

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Just a little MMA action for fun

Alex P Main Event 2nd round KO MGM +425/Commanders ML $25 to win $200


Joe Flacco Colts Over 237.5 passing (-115) MGM $158 to win $141


Colts have no Jon Taylor and no Richardson. What they do have is a old man with a cannon and some good WRs vs a shitty pass rush/pass defense. Colts O-line is always solid too. He should have time to beat these guys. Michael Pittman and Downs is a solid slot man plus Alex Pierce is developing and the rookie Adonai Mitchell is a blazer with talent. I think Flacco cracks this number. Got a boost on $20 of it so not a bad payout.

Old man Flacco cashed that easy! Had Washington/Colts Over parlay too. Only hiccup was the Bills ML I picked up live when they were down 20-10. Why are you throwing bombs from your 3 with :30 left in a tie game? Just run the f clock out and go to OT. If you need one first down then throw underneath. Just gave it away

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:


Coastal Carolina/James Madison Over 59.5 DK $132 to win $120

CC is 4-1 Over. Both QBs are dual threats so I'm going with 37-33 JM


Eli Holstein (Pitt) 281+ passing (-115) BET365 $345 to win $300


Cam Ward went for 437 on Cal last week so no reason to think Holstein can't keep doing what he's doing here

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding 2 team parlay:

Padres 5 innings +0.5 run (+162) & UNLV (-12.5) bought down

Fan Duel $150 to win $243

SD has hit Yamamoto while LA hasn't hit Darvish. Also like UNLV to win by atleast 2 TDs as they're trying to look good as an at-large

Also put another $100 on Padres/WS at +500 after Game 2 so it would be nice if they moved on

[Fred The Hammer]

F'n Padres? I guess they always want to be LAs little bitch. Up 2-1 at home and can't close the deal. Last 2 Fridays no good. Oh well

Adding early game:


Same Game Parlay

Klubnik Clemson 250+ passing & Over 56.5 buying points (+110) MGM $130 to win $143

Working on several more plays, but big one is Holstein for Pitt at 3:30 eastern

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

BYU -2.5 (-120) Arizona FD $120 to win $100

Might bet more later, its a 4pm kickoff. BYU's defense is for real. They shut down SMU and KState and the crowd will be rocking. This should be more like 6-7 points imo

[Fred The Hammer]

3:30 Sorsby with Cincinnati. DK has 247+ passing (-120). FD and MGM no lines and Bet365 is blank for some reason. I'm betting it, but I'll wait

4pm BYU

8 pm Syracuse Definitely betting that game, but waiting to check lines

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Sorsby Cincinnati 247+ passing (-120) DK $168 to win $140


Went ahead and hit it. This kid is a gunslinger and it should be a shootout. He's had 298 and 426 in the 2 games where they needed him and they're a dog today

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:


Same Game Parlay

Syracuse ML & Pena 60+ yards receiving (+195) MGM $200 to win $390


Great value imo. Pena is McCords #1 possession target and Cuse should light these guys up. Might need it to get even? 3:30 games off to bad starts.

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:


Same Game Parlay

Syracuse ML & Pena 60+ yards receiving (+195) MGM $200 to win $390


Great value imo. Pena is McCords #1 possession target and Cuse should light these guys up. Might need it to get even? 3:30 games off to bad starts.

That was a huge bailout game for me. I got +220 on the same bet before gametime