Fred The Hammer's CFB Season Thread

[Fred The Hammer]

Whats up SBR? Haven't been on here in atleast 2.5-3 years, but its that time!
CFB is my bread-n-butter and off to a hot start! FYI my range is only like $60-$350+, but hit Sanders 300+ yards on Thursday for $300. I anticipate popping that one alot with Colorado's weapons and shitty defense. Also easily hit Hoover TCU Over 285.5 last night!

On to todays action! I have family flying in later so won't be playing as many as usual.

Colorado State +35.5 (-115) got this one atleast a week ago

Penn State/WV Under 50 (-115). A ton of running in this one

Big play for the day:

Same Game Parlay Cuse ML & McCord 225+ passing (-125). McCord was a 5 star for a reason. Kid has alot of arm talent

McCord Over 232.5 (-114)
McCord Over 249.5 (+136)

Same Game Parlay:

Indiana ML & Over 34.5 (-145). Basically trimming a few points off the team total of 37.5 for a reasonable raise in juice. Indiana will have a very nice group of WRs this year including a future NFL kid in Mcwhatever his name is and the kid from James Madison had over 1K yards. I think this new coach has his shit together!

I have a big futures bet in Indiana Over 5.5 (-135). 3 cupcakes non-conference and 8 of 12 at home

[Fred The Hammer]

Some of these refs are complete f idiots? WV runs it on 4th and 1 and dude is obviously 2 feet short and they review it and still miss it...then they go on to kick a FG. Penn State WR then blatantly pushes off w/no call and they get a TD with :10 left and no timeouts. Should be 13-3.
Cashing out for $109 out of $115. WV can't even play their game now with these bs calls. Basically no play now

[Fred The Hammer]

Won $180 overall after moving the Penn State $ to McCord. He's the real deal....especially vs ACC talent. Too bad Indiana let off the gas with the team total.

Tonight I have 2 plays:

Both LSU/USC to score 7+ 1Q (+130) Thats my bigger play. Should be a shootout all the way

Moss Over 288.5 passing. Got boosts on that to get it from -115 to +104. Kid is pretty talented and I trust Lincoln Riley to scheme up some big plays. Actually like USC to win/cover in a high scoring game. LSUs def sucked last year and I don't think they can fix it this quick. Of course USCs def sucks too

[Fred The Hammer]

Great game last night! I took USC live (+100) when it was still 0-0 and they were driving. So I finished a little ahead again. Nothing big

So far 4-0 with QB passing props. It will be interesting to track them moving forward and see how the apps adjust the lines. Can't just blindly bet them either because they'll run the ball too much against scrubs or limit the QBs throws, etc. I'll be on the look out to add more QBs as well. Maybe Nussbaum for LSU or whatever his name is?

Sanders Colorado
Hoover TCU
McCord Syracuse
Moss USC

Today trying a little MLB/CFB parlay

Cubs ML & Florida St/BC both teams to score 10+ with FSU ML (+144) Bet MGM. Cubs have been on a huge heater and they're at Wrigley while Castellanos should make enough plays to get BC 17+ points

[Fred The Hammer]

Going to keep moving forward with these QB Props. Going well so far!

Jake Retzlaff BYU Over 220.5 (-114) FanDuel $200 to win $175. Decent size play for tomorrow night. Kid was the number #1 Junior College QB a few years ago and took some lumps last year with several rough starts, but opened strong with 348 last week. SMU should probably win the game and they also play fast so time of possession isn't as big of a factor. Weather shouldn't be a factor either

[Fred The Hammer]

Sorsby (Cincinnati) Alt Line 250+ passing (+154)

Notre Dame/N Ill Over 44.5

Sanders Colorado Over 306.5 passing

Arkansas/Ok State Both teams to score 20+ (-250) Parlay small with every bet to use the boosts

GT/Cuse Under 60. DraftKings . GT runs it really well. Neither of their 2 games have made 50 let alone 60

[BOA12]

sorsby (cincinnati) alt line 250+ passing (+154)

notre dame/n ill over 44.5

sanders colorado over 306.5 passing

arkansas/ok state both teams to score 20+ (-250) parlay small with every bet to use the boosts

gt/cuse under 60. draftkings . gt runs it really well. Neither of their 2 games have made 50 let alone 60

Hammer time at sbr.

Gl Fred.

[Fred The Hammer]

Hammer time at sbr.

Gl Fred.

Ty sir. Started off above water a little bit, but nothing special. Hope to get really hot soon! Starting off with GT live +155 while they were up late 1st half was nice.


UNLV/Kansas Over 56.5 (-125). Guilty of buying points too often, but MGM already gave me 2 boosts for $50 & $20 so juice is more like -115 for my total of $160 wagered

Daniels for KU is explosive and UNLV has shown some nice firepower so far. Expecting more of a shootout tonight

Looking hard at Hoover TCU tomorrow. DK has the only prop line so far with 275+ (-120) & 300+ (+155). Have to check out UCF defense and the weather in Ft Worth, but that looks good. TCU is another one of those teams that basically throws the mini roll WR screens as half their running game so 350+ vs Stanford wasn't a fluke

[Fred The Hammer]

Alabama (-15.5) picked it up yesterday. Wisc barely got by W Michigan. Game was closer then the score indicates and their leading rusher only 3.8 per carry. You shut down Wisky's running and its a beatdown.

[Fred The Hammer]

Laying off Sanders 320+. Deion? Dude is going to quit when you combine this shitty season they're about to have + his kid leaving. Their oline blows and their defense does too. Hard to rack up yards when the other team controls the ball. Doubtful I play him again

[Fred The Hammer]

Got a little more Over 53.5 with KU/UNLV

Don't see anyone stopping anybody really? Long drives have ate clock, but UNLV has had some wide open deep shots already

[Fred The Hammer]

Big UNLV TD there. I was about to throw something at my flat screen. Jesus Christ....UNLV just kept dropping long passes and f up in the redzone. Nobody can stop anyone 20 to 20 yd line.

Hoover TCU Over 268.5 (-115) DK

Not a huge play, but you're looking at a total in the 60s and you're telling me the home team which airs it out can't go for 270? Probably add more once I see FD and MGM lines

[Fred The Hammer]

Over went to shit last night....cashed out and got $80 back atleast out of $210

Hoover Over 262.5 (-115) MGM Big play now. Total is 62.5 for a reason...really need a shootout

Fan Duel $50 Parlay Boost $50 to win $210. Put another $50 on it cause I like it

Bama ML
S Carolina +11.5
Indiana +4.5
Sarratt Indiana Over 50.5 receiving

Sarratt had 1K last year with James Madison. They're deep at WR, but he's their main guy

[Fred The Hammer]

Got La Tech +17.5 live and then their QB got hurt with LT up 7-6. As soon as they said the backup was a true freshman I grabbed +6.5 live and +290 ML. Could be a nice score?

S Carolina? Protect the damn ball? QB fumbles it inside his own 20. Held them to 3, but if you punt then go 3 & out. Still up 17-10, but could really use a late score here for momentum

[Fred The Hammer]

Ok. 75 yd TD run will work South Carolina is pretty damn good this year

I have +210 ML in a couple of little parlays that pays $160 each

[Fred The Hammer]

Over went to shit last night....cashed out and got $80 back atleast out of $210

Hoover Over 262.5 (-115) MGM Big play now. Total is 62.5 for a reason...really need a shootout

Fan Duel $50 Parlay Boost $50 to win $210. Put another $50 on it cause I like it

Bama ML
S Carolina +11.5
Indiana +4.5
Sarratt Indiana Over 50.5 receiving

Sarratt had 1K last year with James Madison. They're deep at WR, but he's their main guy

Big night! Cleared almost $600 today and would've done $950 if dummy doesn't push the QB on that pick-6 with South Carolina

Hoover ended up with 394 and had that yardage beat from the beginning. Also that parlay didn't need any of the points. Could've hit the standard 4 teamer for 11-1 or whatever. Oh well, still a very nice day.

My Indiana Over 5.5 (-135) is going to hit also. They're going to be ranked! Hell they may start off 6-0! Thats $675 to win $500 so $1175 coming back my way!

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding Eli Holstein Pitt as another target for passing yardage. 936 in 3 games and 300+ in each. Pitt doesn't seem to be good at defense so thats a positive! I think McCord and Hoover are going to end up with lines of 315 etc. Sanders kid was 325 yesterday and went under slightly. McCord and Cuse gets Stanford at home on Friday. I'm hitting that one early if I can get McCord under 300 somewhere? Probably DK I think? FD and MGM have been sitting on those props til the day before or gameday

Good times don't last forever usually. The apps adjust quick

NFL today. I don't do much NFL because half the games end up coin tosses vs the spread late 4Q

Bears/Texans Over 44.5 FanDuel. I think Caleb Williams will make some plays this week. Texans gamble on defense. I see something like Texans 30-20
Colts Jaylon Jones Over 3.5 tackles/assists. He had 9 last week and he's a big corner at 205-210 and 6'2. Looks like a safety out there

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding Eli Holstein Pitt as another target for passing yardage. 936 in 3 games and 300+ in each. Pitt doesn't seem to be good at defense so thats a positive! I think McCord and Hoover are going to end up with lines of 315 etc. Sanders kid was 325 yesterday and went under slightly. McCord and Cuse gets Stanford at home on Friday. I'm hitting that one early if I can get McCord under 300 somewhere? Probably DK I think? FD and MGM have been sitting on those props til the day before or gameday

Good times don't last forever usually. The apps adjust quick

NFL today. I don't do much NFL because half the games end up coin tosses vs the spread late 4Q

Bears/Texans Over 44.5 FanDuel. I think Caleb Williams will make some plays this week. Texans gamble on defense. I see something like Texans 30-20
Colts Jaylon Jones Over 3.5 tackles/assists. He had 9 last week and he's a big corner at 205-210 and 6'2. Looks like a safety out there

So far so good. $25 with boost pays $175 if the Bears/Texans go Over 42.5. Played the Jaylon Jones prop with Darnold/Purdy Over 468.5 combined.

Stroud/Caleb Williams 500+ passing combined +150 boost MGM $50 to win $75. I think Mixon will come back to Earth and Stroud will have to throw it more plus the Texans blitz and take some chances. I expect Williams to go Over 225 or so

Also have Texans ML on a boost $50

[Fred The Hammer]

First CFB play for the week. Medium sized bet of $200 for me

Indiana/Charlotte Over 48.5 (-115) MGM

Looked at this one quite a while. The game I really used to cap it was NC/Charlotte. Tarheels won 38-20. NC had 490 total yards, but failed to get any turnovers. They also gave up over 300 passing to Charlotte. I think Charlotte lost their QB since then, but the backup rallied them to win last week over Gardner Webb...whoever they are? GW threw for 300+ on them though. Indiana is definitely in a look ahead situation (-28.5) after crushing UCLA and going back to B10 play next week.

I don't lay 4 TDs, but I thought about IU over the team total of 38, but they could sleepwalk for a bit in this one? I'll go ahead and take Charlotte too with the total. I still think they cruise easily and should allow a little 2H garbage to Charlotte. I have it IU 44-17

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding $125 for Friday night action

Same Game Parlay MGM (+105) Syracuse ML & McCord 275+ passing

Going to keep riding McCord although he's due for a off night in one of these games. McCord by himself is 290.5 (-114) so I'll take 16 less passing yards and take the juice away too. They should be able to take Stanford with all that crowd noise in the Carrier Dome

Leaning hard:

Moss passing USC vs Michigan
S Alabama +7 tomorrow night
Hoover passing TCU vs SMU

Getting hard on these QB props though...the lines are all over the place and juiced to hell and back. Especially DK

[Fred The Hammer]

South Alabama App State Over 62.5 Fan Duel $132 to win $120

Switched gears on S Alabama +7.5 or whatever. Capping this one I see that neither team has any defense. Playing it like the Fun Belt games a few years ago although scoring seems down this year overall. Normally college Overs are my bread-n-butter

SA has allowed 6.6 yds per play in their 2 Division 1 games. Lost 52-38 to N Texas where both teams threw for over 400
App St allowed 5.6 yds per play to E Carolina last week and gave up 60+ to Clemson

Look at these numbers:

Combined both teams have allowed:

82 plays 10+ yards
25 plays 20+ yards
13 plays 30+ yards

[Fred The Hammer]

Lose Thursday total by .5 point missed extra point
Lose Cuse had them 4th/9. Should've just taken McCord yardage. He's good!

I did take San Jose +12.5 late atleast. Good letdown angle vs Wash St. They acted like they won the SB last week vs Washington

Big big play today. Talked my buddy into a $1000 No Risk Bet with Bet365 and I'm taking $900 of it with Indiana/Charlotte Over 48.5

I really think they might cover by themselves...like 51-7

I also used a 4 teamer boost for $25 with S Alabama ML +250, Cincinnati ML, Utah St ML, La Tech -2.5. Pays $360 with boost. La Tech should roll Tulsa.

La Tech (-2.5) I think they'll gain some confidence after playing well @ NC State and their QB isn't bad. Tulsa sucks

[Fred The Hammer]

Hoover Over 308.5 passing yds (-115) BET365. Getting up there, but I'll still ride with him. Their running game & defense isn't shit so he should have to keep chucking it

[Fred The Hammer]

Cincinnati ML & Sorsby 200+ passing SGP MGM (+138) $75 for $103. Kid is pretty good and Houston isn't a solid program anymore

I will note Stanford burned me ML last night. They pushed Cuse around all night and win easily if McCord wasn't such a stud. Noted for next time

[Fred The Hammer]

Wow!! IU 31-14 at half!! This will make me 3-0 in these big risk free bets! Last one was this May in Game 7 Pacers/Knicks Over 208 or whatever it was on Bet365. Pacers scored like 40 1Q so it was a breeze all the way....just like this one. I had $1K on that one too...quite a rush for a $100-$200 player

Sorsby has 136 passing and UC is up 24-0. Hope they don't take him out before he gets 200. MGM continues to have the best odds/weakest lines imo. I checked out the same SGP on DK and it was +100 even money compared to +138 on MGM. They give out more bonus stuff too

[Fred The Hammer]

Big big day! Only losers were La Tech and Sorsby with Cincinnati. Sorsby was easy except they got so far ahead they pulled him out. Didn't expect Houston to get shut out?

Hoover is a Over bettors wet dream. TCU can't run it and can't play defense. I was afraid they'd pull him late 3Q with 284 yards or whatever because they were down 28, but he hit a bomb that won it. They left him after that? Trying to kill him I guess?

One of my other buddies had TCU/Hoover yards and got clipped just like I did with McCord/Cuse ML. No more team ML with the yards for me

I can't post SBR from my phone or I would've given my live bets. Under 49.5 live Tennessee/OU and Under 49.5 BYU/KState. Got lucky on that one considering how fast KState was turning it over. Overall won a ton with IU Over and Hoover! Lost $300 poker and didn't sweat it at all

Now I have to get this same friend to bet $1K on MGM as a new member and hit that one too. Actually I haven't played ESPN Bet yet and they have the same deal

NFL today:

Taylor Colts Over 72.5 rushing & SGP with Under 47.5. Juicing total up a little

Adding:

Carson Steele 50+ rushing (+105) MGM

Kid from my high school that was squatting 500 as a freshman. He's probably 230 now...trying to be Alstott Jr. Falcons rush defense is 27th or something. I think the kid does a little damage atleast. Small bet $80

[Fred The Hammer]

Big big day! Only losers were La Tech and Sorsby with Cincinnati. Sorsby was easy except they got so far ahead they pulled him out. Didn't expect Houston to get shut out?

Hoover is a Over bettors wet dream. TCU can't run it and can't play defense. I was afraid they'd pull him late 3Q with 284 yards or whatever because they were down 28, but he hit a bomb that won it. They left him after that? Trying to kill him I guess?

One of my other buddies had TCU/Hoover yards and got clipped just like I did with McCord/Cuse ML. No more team ML with the yards for me

I can't post SBR from my phone or I would've given my live bets. Under 49.5 live Tennessee/OU and Under 49.5 BYU/KState. Got lucky on that one considering how fast KState was turning it over. Overall won a ton with IU Over and Hoover! Lost $300 poker and didn't sweat it at all

Now I have to get this same friend to bet $1K on MGM as a new member and hit that one too. Actually I haven't played ESPN Bet yet and they have the same deal

NFL today:

Taylor Colts Over 72.5 rushing & SGP with Under 47.5. Juicing total up a little

Adding:

Carson Steele 50+ rushing (+105) MGM

Kid from my high school that was squatting 500 as a freshman. He's probably 230 now...trying to be Alstott Jr. Falcons rush defense is 27th or something. I think the kid does a little damage atleast. Small bet $80

3-0 yesterday. Going to peck away with NFL winners hopefully, but CFB is my main focus

[Fred The Hammer]

Had some dead time at work today so I looked over these 2 games and found a play

Adding:

Josh Allen/Burrow/T Lawrence 200+ passing each (+135) Boost MGM

Josh Allen Over 232.5 (+104) with boosts MGM

Josh Allen 225+ (-130) & 250+ (+154) FD


Low totals for Josh Allen with the Bills new commitment to running, but here's why I think tonight will be a little different. Jags are 0-2 so I expect them to come out and put points up tonight. I think they cover and maybe win and the weather isn't going to be a factor.

Also the Jags are only one of a handful of teams holding opponents under 4 per carry (3.8) and looking back at 2022-23 Allen managed 250+ passing in 15 of 23 games September-November. Jags got them in London last year and Allen threw for 359. With that in mind (+154) for 250+ passing seems like a great value

[Fred The Hammer]

Had some dead time at work today so I looked over these 2 games and found a play

Adding:

Josh Allen/Burrow/T Lawrence 200+ passing each (+135) Boost MGM

Josh Allen Over 232.5 (+104) with boosts MGM

Josh Allen 225+ (-130) & 250+ (+154) FD


Low totals for Josh Allen with the Bills new commitment to running, but here's why I think tonight will be a little different. Jags are 0-2 so I expect them to come out and put points up tonight. I think they cover and maybe win and the weather isn't going to be a factor.

Also the Jags are only one of a handful of teams holding opponents under 4 per carry (3.8) and looking back at 2022-23 Allen managed 250+ passing in 15 of 23 games September-November. Jags got them in London last year and Allen threw for 359. With that in mind (+154) for 250+ passing seems like a great value

Trevor Lawrence sucks so bad. They got blown out so bad I lost his prop and almost lost the whole thing. Allen only had 16 yds passing 2H, but another $210 profit overall! Huge weekend after starting off Friday bad! Hitting +154 was nice and Taylor Over/Colts Under was +190. I've been able to hit some decent + numbers lately.

[Fred The Hammer]

First look at this weekend CFB

Just leans at this point! Have to do a weather check on all these too. If any viewers have a thought or want mine on any game then let me know

Louisville +7/Notre Dame. Jeff Brohm has a history of winning big games (Purdue over #2 Ohio State) then maybe slacking off and losing as a favorite. I'll wait on +7 or buy it up if I play them

TCU/Kansas Over 58.5. TCUs defense is slow as shit. Every game ends up a track meet

Hoover TCU 302+ (-135) DK. I'd play that one now if the juice wasn't so high. DK puts the props out earlier but also juices the f out of them? I'll wait a bit

Stanford/Clemson Over 57.5 and/or Clemson Over 16.5 (-130) team total. Clemson's last 2 at home 66-20 and 59-35. That QB was a 4 star and highly rated before the roof caved in some of those big games. Stanford too....QB is good and can run and that WR is a NFL 1st rounder. Kid is unreal. The 1 handed stab for their first TD vs Cuse reminded me of OBJs catch. Big and fast!

Ball State/James Madison Over 57.5. Don't want to overreact to 70-50 JM win, but they can score. Ball State also has 42-34 win & 37-34 loss in their 2 vs unranked teams. I see something like 44-20 JM

UCF -whatever/Colorado. Colorado acted like they won the SB, but they have the same problems. Deion is trying to get his kid killed before he can make the NFL? Their Oline is shit (8 sacks vs Baylor). They got prison raped on the road at Nebraska and UCF is better then the Huskers. At a minimum I'll have UCF -6.5 or -9.5 on some parlays

[Fred The Hammer]

Adding:

Hoover TCU 296+ (-115) BET365

Much better line then DK as usual and weather looks solid for this weekend in Kansas. I'm going to keep riding him and their shit defense. I like their star WR too. Big white guy almost looks like a TE. Reminds me of Brock Bowers from Georgia $230 to win $200

[SBR Andy]

Nice work here Fred!

Good finds on the CFB player props. They can't set those Hoover lines high enough so far.

Thanks for sharing.

[Fred The Hammer]

Nice work here Fred!

Good finds on the CFB player props. They can't set those Hoover lines high enough so far.

Thanks for sharing.

You're welcome. Yeah McCord and Hoover have been going off and I enjoy digging up props/games other bettors don't consider

What really turned me onto college props was when Cousins was a senior at Mich St. I was at my buddies house and we're getting ready to watch Wisky/Mich St play for the B10 championship here in Indy. I decide to cap it last second and see Cousin's passing was only like 240.5 or something and I remembered they said Sparty was the worst rushing team in the B10 that year. So I look up their regular season matchup and Cousins had 300+ passing. I thought if he did 300 in the fall and now they're playing on fast turf then whats he's going to do? He threw for 300 again and I had a big score!

Looked it up. He had 290 vs Wisky during the season and 281 in the B10 championship. I was a little low but I bet $500 so I remember it was a nice win on my Bodog account

[Fred The Hammer]

Skipping Louisville/ND. Just don't have a feeling for it now. ND knows they have to look great after losing to N Illinois

Went to bet Ball State/James Madison Over 57.5 and I see it dropped all the way to 56 on DK. Huh? Local hurricane tonight or something I guess, but Saturday is supposed to be clear in Harrisonburg VA. Idk? Ball State defense is shit and all 3 of their games have went Over. BS has also scored 42 & 34 in their 2 games vs unranked opponents. Guess I'll wait and see for a bit?

Fox Sports has it 47-26 JM
I capped it at something like 41-24 JM

[texhooper]

Still like UCF -14.5?