romanowski,
appreciate you stopping by my thread and thank you for the well wishes...BOL to you this week as well...
appreciate you stopping by my thread and thank you for the well wishes...BOL to you this week as well...
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Summary of NCAA Football Picks from Pags:
Iowa State +6.5 vs. Iowa
ISU QB Austin Arnaud, one of the more underrated QB’s in the Big 12, has the arm and legs to create some match-up problems against the Iowa defense. RB Alexander Robinson is now in his third year in the program and has progressed every year, which is now taking some heat off Arnaud and creating more balance on offense. WRs Marquis Hamiliton and Darius Reynolds appear to be two young playmakers that can stretch defenses.
Iowa will try to attack the ISU defense with methodical drives, based off the running game and play action passes. But Iowa’s RBs are inexperienced, their leading RB Adam Robinson has a total of fifteen career carries and those came last week against Northern Iowa. Iowa’s WRs are also young and it will be tough for them to make a lot of big plays in such an intensity filled game.
Connecticut +5 vs. North Carolina
When I watch Connecticut play, as I did last week in their game vs. Ohio, I see big-time division one athletes, athletes who can compete on a national stage. Sophomore sensation Julian Todman is the real deal, and with all due respect to UNC defensive end Marvin Austin, I think he will be the best player on the field in Saturday’s game. UConn QB Zach Frazer, a once highly touted recruit who originally committed to Notre Dame, has been criticized greatly for his performance in week one. I’m not going to tell you that Frazer is a game breaker, but he’s better than people are giving him credit for and I think he has it fresh in his mind how poorly he played last year at UNC and he would like to make a better showing this week.
Defensively UConn has essentially reloaded the past couple of years. I don’t see this year’s team being any different as I saw good tackling from the team last week, and the strength of their defense appears to be against the run. This game should be a defensive battle and the points could appear much more attractive as the game goes into the fourth quarter. I’ll take UConn and the points in this one.
East Carolina +6.5 vs. West Virginia
Defensively, ECU brings back most of their starters from last year. They have big, fast athletes on defense that can run with the West Virginia offensive players. That will be an important thing because WVU does have a couple talented guys. WVU RB Noel Devine might be the best running back in the country. QB Jarrett Brown, while not Pat White, is a talented player who can make plays through the air and on with his feet. But in last year’s game Skip Holtz had a great game plan to defend the WVU spread. I expect another good game plan from Holtz and his coaching staff this week.
ECU’s offense is lead by senior QB Patrick Pickney who has spent the better part of the last two seasons as the starting quarterback. RB Dominique Lindsay is back from his injury last year and is running well, breaking off a 41-yard touchdown run last week. WRs Dwayne Harris and Jamar Bryant should be able to stretch the WVU defense, a defense I saw last week give up chunks of yardage to FCS opponent Liberty. I believe the key to this game is the ECU offense being able to sustain drives against a WVU defense that I feel is far from sound. It should also be noted that WVU’s kickoff coverage is again atrocious this year, which could allow ECU to start their drives in good field position.
Louisiana Tech +7.5 vs. Navy
While I was impressed with Navy battling for four quarters last week with Ohio State, I feel they were one play away from being blown out by 3 TDs, which made the final score a bit deceiving. Speak of deceiving finals; LaTech was down by only ten points in the fourth quarter in their game last week vs. Auburn, against an improved Auburn team that I underestimated when handicapping last week’s game.
LaTech is a fundamentally sound defensive football team, which is what they will need to be when defending Navy QB Ricky Dobbs and their triple option attack. Dobbs is a talented playmaker, both on the ground and has the ability to hit long pass plays, making him difficult to defend. Fortunately, Navy lost most of their skill position players from last year's team and they are breaking in new players.
LaTech had a hard week of practice and some of their players are battling the flu, but if there is one thing you can count on from Derek Dooley, it’s that he has his guys ready to play each week. Navy may suffer a bit of a letdown after their comeback fell short last week and if so my hopes are La.Tech can jump out early.
Southern Miss -14.5 vs. Central Florida
A lot like Tulsa did at the beginning of last year, I believe that Larry Fedora’s Southern Miss squad is flying under the radar this year. Fedora is an unbelievable recruiter and has shown to be an outstanding coach with the way he turned Southern Miss’s season around during the second half of last year, culminating with a bowl victory.
Southern Miss QB Austin Davis is a solid all around quarterback and has many playmakers in his offense to work with. Senior running back Damion Fletcher has a chance to be a four-time thousand yard rusher and he is fortunate to have one of Southern Miss’s best offensive lines since he arrived in Hattiesburg. Southern Miss will look to attack the secondary of UCF who lost all four starters from last year, all of whom which were Honorable Mention or better on the All-CUSA team.
Southern Miss has also really improved on the defensive side of the football this season and they will face a UCF offense who struggles to move the football. Head coach George O’Leary seems to be set on establishing the run, as RB Brynn Harvey had 31 carries last week, but only averaged 3.6 yards per carry. I don’t expect him to have even that much success this week against Southern Miss, which will put pressure on the UCF passing game to convert third and longs.
It’s tough to lay over two TD’s in a conference game, a CUSA game at that, but I will do so this week with Southern Miss.
South Carolina +7 vs. Georgia
Watching last week’s game I saw some progress from South Carolina QB Stephen Garcia. He made better decisions with the football, didn’t tuck and run with it so much, and made some key throws in the fourth quarter of that ballgame. I believe that Spurrier’s offensive game plan will be a little more aggressive than last week, with South Carolina getting back WR Deon LeCorn for this game which should help with their passing game. I’m going to be completely honest with you, if an offense as good as Oklahoma State’s only got 24 points against Georgia’s defense, it will be a struggle for South Carolina to move the football regularly.
Fortunately, I expect much of the same with Georgia’s offense against South Carolina’s defense. As long as Joe Cox leads the Bulldogs' offense, I think that Georgia is going to struggle to score points against quality defenses like South Carolina’s. He was 15-30 last week while missing on many passes which would normally be considered high percentage passes. Also RB Richard Samuel seemed to go down a lot after first contact, although RB Caleb King should be back this week to carry some of the load. If South Carolina can contain Georgia WR A.J. Green I think they can have some success in defending Georgia’s offense.
Games between these two teams are usually pretty close and I expect another tightly contested battle again this week.
Fresno State +9 vs. Wisconsin
Fresno State is pretty much two different teams when it comes to handicapping their games. Typically they play well in their non-conference games against BCS opponents and stink it up against the rest of their schedule. I watched these two teams play each other last year and can tell you they are very similar in the style of football they both play.
Fresno State returns most of their offensive playmakers from last year’s team, with the exception of their quarterback. Junior QB Ryan Colburn will lead the Bulldogs into Madison this weekend, and he'll have three of their top pass catchers from last year in Seyi Ajirotutu, Devon Wylie and Marlon Moore. But the strength of the Fresno State offense is with their running game and offensive line. RB Ryan Matthews (14 TD in 2007) is one of the best tailbacks in the country you have never heard of. Even though Wisconsin is a Big Ten team, they play more at the defensive speed of a team like Fresno State, which means Fresno State could have some success moving the ball this week.
Defensively Fresno returns most of their starters from last year’s team. Wisconsin head coach Brett Beliema has made it a point to center his offense on his running game. However, Wisconsin lost a lot off of their offensive line from last year, which could make it harder for their backs to run against Fresno’s defense. Playing against Wisconsin in Madison is always a tricky proposition, especially in a game that has a west coast team playing at 9 AM PST. I still think Fresno and the points are the play in this one.
Full write-ups on page 5.Last edited by Nickelicious; 09-12-09, 11:25 AM.Comment -
Great work pags and thanks for sharing. Love the Iowa State play. Going strong on UCONN as well. Thanks again for the very well written and researched write-ups.
I tend to think you are right on the ECU play, but the WVU grad in me will just go no-play
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Sir Pags, I am with you on both states (Iowa and Fresno). I wish you a good luck on 9/12Comment -
Good luck today Pags !!!Comment -
Nice work Pags...I'm with you on the Iowa St,ECU,Fesno St games. The work is in the details, and you have given several for every game. I'm away from home this weekend and enjoyed reading the write-ups. BOL today.
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I tailed all 7 picks this week, I stick to the pro's, so I will leave it to Pags to stick to the amateurs. Hopefully its a better week than last week. I even got better numbers on some games than Pag's mentioned. Here's the list:
Connecticut +5
Iowa St. +7
East Carolina +7
Fresno St. +9
South Carolina +7
Louisiana Tech +8
Southern Miss -14.5Comment -
fantastic write ups - great stuff. good luck today.
do you ever play totals pags? apologizes if this was mentioned.Comment -
Best of luck Pags today, nice looking card.Comment -
GOOD MORNING PAGS AND ALL CFB FANS!!! What a great day for football...typical fall day here in NE...football weather baby...GREAT write ups PAGS...luv this thread and one of my daily reads...thought I might introduce myself...been around on a limited basis with the posts within the last year but really value SBR for much of my research and capping, that includes your thread PAGS! Seems last weekend was a hit or miss for most cappers in CFB...these early weeks there are lucrative matchups out there and you have to find them...I think you have definatley found a few! Remember especially in non-conference matchups and especially when BCS tier team plays a non BCS, these are bigger, stronger, and faster men playing boys...the big guys have been practicing against the big boys and when they get on the field with these mismatches they typically pounce them...example ND last week. week 2 these are out there...the Nevada's aren't ready to play at that pace...hence I luved the ND play last week and killed it, and when cappers like PAGS like it and back it up with great writeups...that means the stars have aligned...$$$$$$$$
this week of the 7 pics, I like the Iowa ST +6.5 the best! sprinkle on them all
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East Carolina pick is SOLIDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDDD DDDDD with a capital D for defense...Comment -
Pags,
The plays and write ups are Division I. I handicap mostly baseball and some NFL when I have time (across the street). My question to you is that you've handicap these games and many other games and these games seem to have a statistical edge in your mind. You've also reduced the No Vig line in your favor by not paying the 10% or 5% for most of them. The Question: Why limit your plays to 7 per week? Is this a money management strategy or is it your top 7? Any given day in Baseball (moneydogs and heavy favorites may move my play) I'll have 5-10 plays varying on wager size (Baseball is obviously different than football). Do you restrict it to seven is what I'm looking for and if you do, do you have other games you've capped that may be even smaller plays?
Best of Luck in your season.
GORDON GEKKOComment -
I guess I'll never understand why people have to summarize what you've already got on your thread instead of just reading through what's there... anyway BOL today Pags-on 4 games with ya
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Good luck this week man. I didnt get a chance to post last week but good luck on the season and thanks for all the help last year. Lovin the So. Miss and SC pick this week."Nobody in football should be called a genius. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein." - Joe Theismann
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Looking great early...Comment -
Pags ~
Greetings my friend and hope you are well. Wanted to say what's up cause it's been a while. Thanks as always for your expert write-ups and picks. Here's to a kick-ass year and may all the rolls go our way.
Thanks again,
AnthonyComment -
Great call on Fresno and UCONN Pags...too bad ISU let us down, pretty tough when you throw 4 INT'sComment -
2-1 early....we'll take winning all dayComment -
keep it up thanks pags!!! b o l.......Comment -
He's looking good so far on LA Tech and ECU also.Comment -
Thats a jinx if ever i saw one.Comment -
wow total jinx in effect. wtf is wrong with you man. way to totally screw alot of people.Comment -
Yup, was just about to say something.Comment -
Getting my ass handed to me again today...thank God for small bets...Christ...hopefully the night games treat me right...GL the rest of the way PagsComment -
LA Tech and ECU look dead in the water. No problem, well sweep the night games.Comment -
No doubt Ice...I'm ready for a couple winners this evening...mostly my fault anyway as I put a 2 unit play on Buffalo who has no D apparently...Comment -
Better days ahead Pags......respect your work and you do a tremendous job and have a heavy following.
I just hope that there aren't too many people that tailed you with big bucks without doing their own research. If so, we could have alot of people in big time holes early on in the season. Pags, I respect that you only played 1 unit on your plays first few weeks, now you will have a chance to get out of the hole down the road. GoodLuck rest of the way.Comment -
2-5 wowComment -
It is so ridiculous to see people come in here after being on the forum for a few months and think they know something...but all they do is tail one guys picks...then they come on his thread and bash him. He told you to go light on your bets! More than once! Come on...start your own thread and post your picks if you are such geniuses...wow this gets old...and happens every year it seems...Comment
