Pags' Plays 9/12

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 03:43 PM

Play Number Five:

Southern Miss -14.5 (+100) for 1 unit

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 04:19 PM

Nickelicious,

haha, that sounds like a plan man, 'cause I stayed up until 2 AM last Thursday with the write-ups...thank you sir...

CLASSIC ROCK,

glad that you enjoy the write-ups...as far as the Clemson vs. Georgia Tech game goes, I think it will be a really good game right near the number but I can't recommend a play on either team...GL with what you decide...

cakasmaloy,

I believe you dude, just got done watching the tape of the whole game from last Friday, he looks legit...BOL to you this week...

angelodebo,

thanks for your thoughts on my plays...GL this week...

snapstick,

I never play parlays, all games I play are straight...I was fortunate enough to have one 7-0 week last year...BOL to you this week...

millio007,

man, you have a good memory...thank you bud...GL this week...

Dana4U,

glad to hear you agree with a couple of plays at this point...will have some more thoughts for you on the UNC vs. UConn game later this week...BOL to you this week...

Biff Webster,

glad to hear you had a good week...yep, just trying to do my research and make some descent plays...thank you...

IowaHawkeyes,

my thoughts are that the USC vs. Ohio State game will be a great game to watch but not a great game to wager on...

**Superman455** · 09-08-09, 04:27 PM

Thanks for all your hard work and insight into the games weekend and weekout. I look forward to your write-up later in the week

**SoonerBS** · 09-08-09, 04:34 PM

Pags, I was liking La Tech for this week as well against Navy because it was a good situational spot, but then I read this and decided not to play it:

Banged-up Tech is now dealing with flu

By Ethan Conley • etconley@thenewsstar.com • September 8, 2009
RUSTON — Louisiana Tech suffered a few injuries during its 37-13 loss at Auburn, but nothing serious, head coach Derek Dooley said Monday.
Tech lost one of its best players early in the game when defensive tackle D’Anthony Smith was stepped on and had trouble breathing.
He was taken to the locker room in the first quarter, and didn’t return until the second half.When he did return, he “wasn’t the same,” Dooley said, adding that, “hopefully he’ll be fine.”Smith, a preseason All-WAC selection, finished the game with three total tackles.

Defensive tackle Ramon Randle was also injured in the game. He was helped off the field in the third quarter, unable to put any weight on his left leg.
“Ramone Randle hurt his ankle so we’ll see,” Dooley said. “He’s a day-to-day guy.”
Both Smith and Randle remain in their usual spots on the depth chart — Smith as a starter, Randle as a backup.

Though the injuries may not be significant, the Bulldogs have another problem.
They seem to have caught the flu bug. Starting strong safety Deon Young was quarantined from the team for two days last week and didn‘t arrive in Auburn until the day of the game. Now a fever is spreading.“We had about three other guys start catching a fever on Friday,” Dooley said. “We got about three more today (Monday). So we’re concerned about this thing not turning into an outbreak.
“And it’s not just here, it’s everywhere. ... I’m a little worried about this flu stuff.”

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 05:06 PM

appreciate the info. here soonerbs, we will have to monitor the situation but I have enough conviction on the play to stay with it...remember, Tulane didn't cover last week partly because Bob Toledo is the coach, not because they all had the flu...Derek Dooley is an outstanding coach and should have his team prepared, hurt or not hurt, sick or not sick...

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 05:07 PM

Superman455,

appreciate you recoginizing my efforts...yes, I'll have the write-ups for you later this week...BOL to you this week...

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 05:40 PM

Play Number Six:

South Carolina +7 (+102) for 1 unit

**Cougar Bait** · 09-08-09, 05:50 PM

Ooh. That one is interesting.

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 05:55 PM

cougar bait,

probably the toughest game this week for me to hit the submit button, if you know what I mean...I really don't like going against a team I got beat with the week before but in this circumstance I am willing to do so...will have more thoughts for you on this one on Thursday evening...

**Cougar Bait** · 09-08-09, 06:01 PM

Totally understand...especially since I am in the same boat and was on the losing end of that Oregon game...and a reason I want to play Purdue...but am getting more and more skeptical of that one...look forward to the write-ups.

**taurus** · 09-08-09, 06:04 PM

it's great to see you back on board for another year pags.
I stupidly forgot your advice about half units for the first week, and then my own stubborness and stupidity had me bet Nevada instead of ND. I got what I deserved.
Best of luck to you this season.

**obadub** · 09-08-09, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by Nickelicious

I bought this up to +7.5 at -130, but that's not because I don't have confidence in the pick. I love this game for the Pirates and will match my risk on the spread with a ML bet when it comes out (should be about +180). My spread bet is just for insurance.

The Mountaineers are slowly sinking with Bill Stewart at the helm. It still amazes me that the AD settled for Stewart when Rodriguez left. Michigan is already beginning to reap the benefits of RR's hard-pounding ways and they will be a factor in the Big 10 this year and probably win it next year.

WVU's defense is shaky and if Liberty can push them like they did then just imagine what East Carolina can do. The Pirates are loaded and will dominate C-USA this season. Their close game with Appalachian State (11-3 last year) on Saturday was a mirage: the Pirates led 27-7 at halftime, on the road, and coasted to the victory. The margin of victory was deceptive, but it probably helped this line against WVU by a solid point or more, so I'm not complaining.

Noel Devine is the real deal and ECU will need to deal with him, but the Pirates have the talent to do that. Patrick Pinkney was not exactly brilliant on Saturday, but his confidence is gonna be flying high by the end of the first quarter against WVU.

I see an upset brewing here that will crush the spirit of those loyal Mountaineers fans and boost the number of people who jump on the ECU bandwagon. The Pirates face Virginia Tech at home in the first week of November and if they win that one they will be trying to bust into the BCS bowl games.

Hey, this is my first post on this board (found it yesterday) - I just wanted to say no offense, but I hope to God that you're off on this one... I'm a Senior at WVU and I'll be in the stands Saturday afternoon..

I can definitely understand your reasoning, but don't be surprised if WVU wins by double digits for a couple reasons:
(1) The team is fired up and is looking at the game as a must win
(2) It's in Morgantown, where WVU hardly ever loses (26-5 over the last 5 years) and where ECU is 0-12 all time
(3) Last season, we played them when they were red hot - right after their win against VT and during what was basically a hurricane
(4) Sydney Glover is going to play after being held out last week - if you saw the WVU-USF game last year, he was the one who forced two turnovers (FF, FR, INT) in the redzone
(5) Jarrett Brown is looking like a very good QB and we have veteran WR's
(6) Noel Devine is... Noel Devine.

IMO, the game all comes down to how our OL handles their DL - if we get a stalemate there, Brown and Devine will do the rest.

/obligatory newbie homer post

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 06:47 PM

Cougar Bait,

hope you enjoy them...

taurus,

these first couple of weeks are just tough, sorry to hear about you playing Nevada...at any rate, good to have you in my thread again this week as I always appreciate your thoughts and kind words...

obadub,

thank you for your thoughts on the ECU vs. WVU game...you seem to know your team very well, that's commendable...yeah, Noel Devine is the biggest thing that scares me in that game as I think he is the best running back in the country...that being said their are several reasons I'll touch on Thursday as to why I think ECU is worthy of a play...have fun at the game...

**bfour** · 09-08-09, 06:48 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Play Number Six:

South Carolina +7 (+102) for 1 unit

I like it! Grind it out game. They held down what I think is a real solid offense in NC St which has a very good QB in Russell Wilson. I think much less of Joe Cox, he looked bad against OSU, so SC could eat him alive hopefully. I also think that SC has the possibility of being good offensively with Garcia and a solid group of WRs, even though Georgia has a good D, they are better than what they showed last week. The only thing not to like about this to me is that the game is in Georgia, and that they blew the game vs. OSU and need a win.

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 07:20 PM

bfour,

you make great points for and against the South Carolina play, which echo many of the same thoughts I have about the game...sharp stuff my friend...

**onthewhat** · 09-08-09, 08:00 PM

Is game 7 Notre Dame vs Michigan?

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-08-09, 08:05 PM

Gl Pags.

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 08:06 PM

onthewhat,

no sir it's not...

GiveMeaBJ,

appreciate it...GL to you as well...

**Cougar Bait** · 09-08-09, 08:20 PM

Historically Pags stays away from the high profile games (not all but for the most part). My guess is more work goes into determining the spread on Vegas' end and better values can be found in games that aren't garnering quite as much attention.

**chubber911** · 09-08-09, 08:34 PM

pags, sorry for continuing the bombardment of questions, but I was wondering, do you cap every game each week? I only ask because I'm wondering if you've capped all the others and found no value, or if you haven't looked at them all and there might be some value I could find myself.

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 08:41 PM

"

**Club** · 09-08-09, 08:49 PM

Pags's thread is like a box of chocolates . . .

**mmike032** · 09-08-09, 08:55 PM

Originally posted by pags11

Play Number Six:

South Carolina +7 (+102) for 1 unit

I like this as much as it pains me to admit it.
under 39 I also like, this has been a hard fought low scoring game the past few years.

But OC Mike Bobo took the blame for the lose in Okie citing his horrible play calling and not getting the ball to what seems to be their only playmaker in AJ Green.
Theres a good chance the playbook might be opened up in this one.

**pags11** · 09-08-09, 09:01 PM

club,

that's for sure...lol...thanks man...

mmike,

thanks for your honest feedback...I keep replaying that game in my head and I know Bobo is a better coordinator than that...I believe he is trying to take the blame for Cox, who was 15-30 on very high percentage throws...can't open up the offense with someone they don't really trust, if that makes sense...I think the Logan Gray kid will be the starter by the end of the year...

**mmike032** · 09-08-09, 09:13 PM

Originally posted by pags11

club,

that's for sure...lol...thanks man...

mmike,

thanks for your honest feedback...I keep replaying that game in my head and I know Bobo is a better coordinator than that...I believe he is trying to take the blame for Cox, who was 15-30 on very high percentage throws...can't open up the offense with someone they don't really trust, if that makes sense...I think the Logan Gray kid will be the starter by the end of the year...

makes perfect sense, same was discussed b/t us after the game Sat.
I dont think Cox can throw the ball beyond 20 YDs. I agree Gray will be the starter by the FLA game next month ( not that it'll make a difference

agaisnt FLA). I think Richt will give Cox a few more games to prove hisself.
But ya never know with the Dawgs, they might play like world beaters 1 week and shit the bed the next. Probally shitting the bed more this year

**STEELCURTAIN3288** · 09-08-09, 09:14 PM

Pags,
Thanks for the plays. Are you still doing 7 picks a week? Also any feel on any of these underdogs on the money line this week?

Thanks keep up the good work!!!!

**Doc JS** · 09-08-09, 10:10 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

Pags - so far on board with the ECU and Iowa State. Not so sure about the NC game after watching them blow out Citadel on Saturday. Looking forward to reading your write up so I can better understand your angle on this game.

It's perfectly reasonable to have doubts about UNC but dont let the Heels blowing out the Bulldogs influence you. Citadel is a middle of the road SoCon team. It's just a difference in athletes.

Now, whether or not laying more than a field goal with an ACC team on the road is a great idea, is another matter all together.

BOL with whatever you decide!

Doc

**rayt13** · 09-08-09, 10:18 PM

Really like the LouieTech game. Navy gave everything they had last week only to come up short. They did get a lot of attention and I think this is the reason the line opened at 7.5. I also like the fact that even with 75%+ of the public on Navy the line has dropped to 7

Newcomer to the board but I can already see you put a hell of a lot of time and effort into your work.

Best of luck to you and everybody here

**Skanless1** · 09-08-09, 11:42 PM

GL pags; hope you have a good bounce-back week!

really like the S Carolina play.

any thoughts on tennessee? i really like them in this game.

**mcmc** · 09-09-09, 12:24 AM

Pags- I've been shooting thru here often, BUT this is my inagural post: CHEERS

PAGS=daBomb

not trying to step on your thread, be advised:

ECU + 6 1/2 this team has some straight up athletes

Iowa St +7 this rivalry is a dog fight and the cyclones at home , plus , wtf Northern Iowa????

best of luck everyone!

**Skanless1** · 09-09-09, 01:16 AM

to add, your Uconn pick is very interesting.. i've seen a lot of people on N Carolina, but i'm not going to doubt you after your peformance last year.. these 1st couple weeks are tough though, thus the small units.

**InTheHole** · 09-09-09, 02:52 AM

Good Luck Pags

**pags11** · 09-09-09, 04:40 AM

mmike032,
always good sharing thoughts with someone in SEC football..

...damn fine
brand of football you guys play...

STEELCURTAIN3288,

I'll be posting a 7th play here shortly...I don't play my picks on the money line but some have said they do and have made some money doing so...thanks and GL to you...

Doc JS,

excellent thoughts from a veteran handicapper...

rayt13,

appreciate you stopping by the thread and you appear to be a sharp thinker as well (agree with your thoughts on La. Tech)...thanks for the compliment and good luck...

Skanless1,

appreciate it...glad you like South Carolina as well...that UCLA vs. Tennessee game really has me puzzled, no where to begin with an opinion in that one...yeah, I see a lot of people on UNC too and while I do have respect for Butch Davis and crew I do like UConn's chances to match strength vs. strength in this one...GL...

mcmc,
thanks very much for posting...good thoughts on both games as well...

**pags11** · 09-09-09, 04:41 AM

InTheHole,

thank you...GL to you as well...

**STEELCURTAIN3288** · 09-09-09, 04:51 AM

Pags,
Do you still like UCONN at 4?