Quantum's picks - third version

[QuantumLeap]

I have had 2 previous threads. The most recent is here and links to the first one in the first post of that thread:

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-football-betting/3330162-betting-against-public-opinion-revisited.html

I like to use line movement to make my picks on unpopular dogs against popular favorites. I'm thinking it's dumb public money moving the line against the favorite and the books keep moving the line to take dumb public money like Illinois (against Mich St), Iowa State (against Oklahoma), San Jose St (against Boise St), UCLA (against Colorado), etc. last week.

That is, except for big favorites I faded that win going away like Ohio State (against Nebraska), Washington (against Cal) and WMU (against Ball State) last week.

I just have to figure out in which games the favorite will run away with the game and in which games the favorites will be well matched up against.

[QuantumLeap]

Speaking of WMU, I'm seeing the line move against them again: 18 to now 20 1/2. In the past I've tried to eliminate the lesser conferences except when they are a late game where there will be more money bet and thus it's harder to move the line with little money.

I'm going to do an analysis of the game to see if Kent State can hang with this team or whether we can expect WMU to run away with this game like they did last week against Ball St.

[scratbandit]

W kichigan will get up early and kent st will have to throw to catchup. Second half. w michigan pulls away.
Straight forward..

[QuantumLeap]

W kichigan will get up early and kent st will have to throw to catchup. Second half. w michigan pulls away.
Straight forward..

Line has gone from 18 to 22 1/2 in places. In the big blowouts on Saturday where I took the underdog (Nebraska/OSU and Cal/Washington) the line moved 4 1/2 points at Pinnacle. If Pinnacle hits 22 1/2 I may just pull the trigger for WMU.

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:

KSU +21 1/2 over WMU

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:

KSU +21 1/2 over WMU

Feels good to get the first one a winner.

1-0 so far.

[QuantumLeap]

Normally with line movement like we have with Akron/Bowling Green I would take BG. However, as we saw last Tuesday night we had similar line movement with Northern Illinois and Bowling Green and NI walked away with it.

The rule to remember for line movement, IMO, is to not bet these small conferences unless they are the only game on. Why, you may ask? Not enough money to get a good read. If there isn't much money being bet, dumb money can move the line. Not so much with the games where there is a lot of money being bet.

[QuantumLeap]

Normally with line movement like we have with Akron/Bowling Green I would take BG. However, as we saw last Tuesday night we had similar line movement with Northern Illinois and Bowling Green and NI walked away with it.

The rule to remember for line movement, IMO, is to not bet these small conferences unless they are the only game on. Why, you may ask? Not enough money to get a good read. If there isn't much money being bet, dumb money can move the line. Not so much with the games where there is a lot of money being bet.

Well apparently the line movement was right since BG won outright but I'm not going to bet these. Like I said, last week it didn't hold to form. I did throw a little on the 2nd half and got lucky but that's not going to count here.

[QuantumLeap]

Going with a rare favorite:

Utah -3 1/2 over Arizona State

[QuantumLeap]

Going with a rare favorite:

Utah -3 1/2 over Arizona State

2-0

[QuantumLeap]

Going with these 3 for the early games. One factor in all of these is either the good recent performance of the favorite or the poor recent performance of the underdog:

Kentucky +14 1/2 over Tennessee
Baylor +18 over Oklahoma
Rutgers +17 over Mich St

[QuantumLeap]

Also going with another rare favorite:

Navy -3 over Tulsa

[QuantumLeap]

Going with:

Maryland +30 1/2 over Ohio St
Tulane +26 1/2 over Houston

[QuantumLeap]

Got the backdoor on Kentucky with an onside kick!!!

So I go 1-3 for the early games but Navy was within 1 of covering and Baylor was within 3 of covering. Baylor QB threw a Pick 6 within his own 20 yard line and they failed on another drive in the Red Zone so that one could have covered as well.

[QuantumLeap]

One more favorite:

Texas A&M -6.5 over Ole Miss

[QuantumLeap]

Last one for the week:

Cal +18 over Washington St

[QuantumLeap]

I don't know why I backed that POS Cal team again.

It's funny, because I went 4-6 for the week but 3 games could have easily gone the other way to make it 7-3. Oh well. On to next week.

W KSU +21 1/2 over WMU
W Utah -3 1/2 over Arizona State
W Kentucky +14.5
L Baylor +18
L Rutgers +17
L Navy -3
L Maryland +28 over Ohio St
W Tulane +26 over Houston
L Texas A&M -6.5 over Ole Miss
L Cal +18 over Washington St