DapperDan Football '15. Welcome Friendlies.

[iloseagain]

i have a feeling this missed FG by ole miss is going to come back to haunt us.. Loved Ole miss here, and saw u were on them as well so I doubled up my bet. 28-10 and a missed FG and the momentum is huge in Miss St favor now.. Game might get closer than we want it to.

EDIT: nvm. Ole miss is really good offensively.

[Smutbucket]

i have a feeling this missed FG by ole miss is going to come back to haunt us.. Loved Ole miss here, and saw u were on them as well so I doubled up my bet. 28-10 and a missed FG and the momentum is huge in Miss St favor now.. Game might get closer than we want it to.

EDIT: nvm. Ole miss is really good offensively.

ya their wrs and qb combo may be the best in college football....

fuk u bookies....

[iloseagain]

for sure! Love treadwell, i think his name is..

Didnt get the New Mexico bet in unfortunately!! Looks good early man nice work!

[Smutbucket]

Smutbucket/DapperDan - Great respect for your picks man. Excellent write-ups.

Keep up the good work!

Thanks bud!



ncaf wk 13
Ohio State -1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units WIN +1.5
Iowa -2 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Arkansas Team Total Under 30 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units WIN +1
TCU +2 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units WIN +.5
North Carolina -5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
FSU/UF Under 43 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Vtech TT Over 27 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units LOSS -.6
New Mexico Lobos +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Ole Miss -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1

Week 13 Results: 8-1 +7.4 units

[snip3r2006]

Thanks bud!



ncaf wk 13
Ohio State -1 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units WIN +1.5
Iowa -2 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Arkansas Team Total Under 30 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units WIN +1
TCU +2 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units WIN +.5
North Carolina -5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
FSU/UF Under 43 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Vtech TT Over 27 (-120) Risking .6 units to win .5 units LOSS -.6
New Mexico Lobos +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Ole Miss -1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1

Week 13 Results: 8-1 +7.4 units

great !!! Keep it up !!!

[Smutbucket]

Thanks sniper....one of my best weeks in regard to most of the sides I was on were blowouts and not nail biters at all

scary looking nfl card I put together

NFL Week 12
Bills +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Dolphins +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Chargers +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Steelers +3.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Vikings +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

NFL Wk 12 Results: 2-4 -2.4 units

[Smutbucket]

No writeups this week fellas way too busy getting my ass kicked by life lately....

NCAAF Week 14 (Championship Week)
Iowa +4 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
North Carolina +5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Week 14 NCAAF: 1-1 +.4 units

NCAAF 2015 Season YTD:
72-43 (63%) +28.82 units

pissed off this season I limited my top rated plays to only 1.5x units instead of usually 2x units Ive done in past season..would of been up another 5 units or so on season.. still undefeated on them, got to double check somewhere around 10-0.....

Nothing but bowls left........its the most wonderful time of the year...:

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 13
Falcons -1 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Vikings +1.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Rams +5.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Ugh...NFL....0-3 -3.3 units



is it just me or is the whole media world hyping oklahoma a little too much? who have they beaten? baylor, tcu, oklahoma state? a bunch of over-rated big 12 teams that thrive on cupcake schedules? clemson +3.5 dogs? this line is delusional. I would still bet clemson at -3.5, hell penetrating ya im gonna take +3.5...can It get to 4?...dont think so.....

[shopbar picks]

Smut. I always look at your posts and appreciate that you give a reason for your picks. But after watching Clemson. And Having to watch OU in my area. The OC for Oklahoma is unbelievable in his play calling. It should be a great game. Just my worthless input. But I think it's OU.vs Mich st. In the final.

[Smutbucket]

Thanks for your input shopba.....I agree it will be a great game but I think OU will struggle with their first true defensive test. I rate all these big 12 defenses that are ranked high like oklahoma state and baylor, very low on my scale as they thrive against weak competition but tend to struggle against a tough sec or big 10 team (or acc in this case) Ive already talked about my love for venables and I think he will give a lot of different looks for mayfield which will be interesting cuz mayfield is the master of elusiveness....no doubt my money will be on clemson though....just working on writeup and posting a few more this week...really loving a lot of these bowl matchups this season....think were gonna be making a lot of money...will probably post during this next week as my works schedule is finally clearing up...........


anyways on to NFL.....two so far....

NFL Week 14
Falcons +10 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texans +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

I literally had like 8 games circled ....decided to narrow it down to 2....the two were losers...the other 6 winners....fukking nfl

nfl week 14 0-2 -2.2 units

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Bowls:

Nebraska +7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Ive talked about nebraska a few times this season as I have bet frequently on or against them. Like I pointed out before, they are an offense that needs time to develop routes and armstrong is a decent qb as long as he has time and doesnt get too much pressure. one of the pac12 trademarks and why their defenses are so fuking terrible is their inability to effect pass rushes. This is especially evident for UCLA as they have only mustered up 6 qb hurries on the entire season, yes thats not a typo, 6 on the entire season. They also have a weak 5.4% sack percentage. This should be a high scoring affair and a 1 TD game, feel very comfortable getting 7+ points in this one. Although Im not a huge mike riley fan he has proven more than capable in bowls going 6-2 ATS. As pointed out earlier too most of nebraskas games come down to the wire and are usually very close as their offense can be explosive and makeup points quick like they did against miami. Shit, I wouldnt be surprised if they win outright lets wait and see when ML and total is released because might also take the over.

[Smutbucket]

working on indepth breakdown

NCAAF 2015:
Week 1: 9-1 +8.65 units
Week 2: 5-3 +2 units
Week 3: 4-5 -.65 units
Week 4: 7-1 +5.4 units
Week 5: 7-2 +5.3 units
Week 6: 5-4 +.6 units
Week 7: 5-3 +2.2 units
Week 8: 5-3 +1.45 units
Week 9: 6-4 +1.08 units
Week 10: 3-6 -3.01 units
Week 11: 5-3 +2.7 units
Week 12: 2-6 -4.6 units
Week 13: 8-1 +7.4 units
Week 14: 1-1 +.4 units

NCAAF 2015 Regular Season:
72-43 (63%) +28.92 units

[snip3r2006]

NCAAF Bowls:

Nebraska +7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Ive talked about nebraska a few times this season as I have bet frequently on or against them. Like I pointed out before, they are an offense that needs time to develop routes and armstrong is a decent qb as long as he has time and doesnt get too much pressure. one of the pac12 trademarks and why their defenses are so fuking terrible is their inability to effect pass rushes. This is especially evident for UCLA as they have only mustered up 6 qb hurries on the entire season, yes thats not a typo, 6 on the entire season. They also have a weak 5.4% sack percentage. This should be a high scoring affair and a 1 TD game, feel very comfortable getting 7+ points in this one. Although Im not a huge mike riley fan he has proven more than capable in bowls going 6-2 ATS. As pointed out earlier too most of nebraskas games come down to the wire and are usually very close as their offense can be explosive and makeup points quick like they did against miami. Shit, I wouldnt be surprised if they win outright lets wait and see when ML and total is released because might also take the over.

I alias have a lock At Ur writeups. But disagree here...

nebraska is just a Bad Team, going against maybe the best freshman qb in the League. With the ucla ballenced Team i easy See a blowout here

[Smutbucket]

NCAAF Bowl Addition:
Temple -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
This line at first threw me off...Another head scratcher...Why the fuk is toledo such a small dog? I havent looked into or watched one minute of any toledo game. Then the answer appears, Unbeknownst to most, Toledo is a whopping 8-2-1 ATS this year. But who have they played? Well their most respectable win was week 1 against arkansas but that was when arkansas looked like a highschool team, they were one of the most inconsistent erratic teams of the season. Everyone else they have played is garbage, literally garbage. So they probably caught oddsmakers a little off guard and that is resulting in this little over valuing in a bowl team against a respectable team. Temple on the other hand has played some tough opponents including Penn State, Notre Dame, USF, houston, and memphis, all of which would probably beat down toledo. Given the SOS (most SOS ratings have toledo in this high 80s and temple in the low 80s but I disagree with them and think temple should be atleast in the 70s and toledo in the 100s)and the fact that toledos head coach Matt Campbell bolted for Iowa State, I see this as an easy Temple win. Toledo will be caught off guard as this is their first tough defense theyve played all season and they should hold toledo to only a few points.

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 15
2 Team 6 pt Teaser Steelers -1 and Texans +7.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Bears TT Under 20 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Atl/Jax Over 48 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Bills -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Eagles TT Under 23 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Miami +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Smutbucket]

Adding Half unit to buffalo so buffalos is a 1.65 unit play to win 1.5

[Smutbucket]

InDepth Thread Betting Breakdown:
--------------------------------------
ATS: 46-26 (64%)
ML: 4-2 (67%)
Game Totals: 11-2 (85%)
Team Totals: 8-6 (57%)
Teasers: 2-4 (33%)
Parlay: 1-3 (25%)
--------------------------------------
Total Bets: 116 (1 PUSH)
Total Units Risked: 126.34 units
Total Units Won: 73.5 units
Total Units Lost: 44.58 units
Average Bet Size: 1.09 units
Max Bet: 1.8 units
Average Units Risked per week: 9.02 units
Average Units Profit per week: 2.07 units
ROI per week: 23%
---------------------------------------
1.5 units+ risked : 10-0 (100%) (TOP RATED PICKS)
1-1.4 units risked: 51-36 (59%)
<1units risked: 11-7 (61%)
----------------------------------------

NCAAF 2015:
Week 1: 9-1 +8.65 units
Week 2: 5-3 +2 units
Week 3: 4-5 -.65 units
Week 4: 7-1 +5.4 units
Week 5: 7-2 +5.3 units
Week 6: 5-4 +.6 units
Week 7: 5-3 +2.2 units
Week 8: 5-3 +1.45 units
Week 9: 6-4 +1.08 units
Week 10: 3-6 -3.01 units
Week 11: 5-3 +2.7 units
Week 12: 2-6 -4.6 units
Week 13: 8-1 +7.4 units
Week 14: 1-1 +.4 units


NCAAF 2015 Season YTD:
72-43 (63%) +28.92 units

[Smutbucket]

Bowls So Far: 1-1 -.1 units (shoulda bet NEB on ML, BIG10 power dominated PAC12 "speed")

More bowls locked in....
UNC ML (-155) Risking 1.55 units to win 1 units
Pissed I didnt locked this game earlier when it was at +2. Had the writeup all written up and had it for 1.5x unit bet but now line moved so heavily I figure its better to be safe and just go for the ML for same wager amount I just don't win the extra .5 . Ive never been a fan of baylor. Ive talked about it before they are just one of these soft big 12 teams that play shitty competition and run up the score and are loved by the media for it. (PAC12 and BIG12 both overhyped this season throwing off all the SOS rating systems) This has proven true in bowls and Art Briles system has proven very beatable in bowls as he is 2-8 straight up and 3-7 ATS. It was clear in the clemson-unc game that clemsons (8 hurries) pass rush was getting to marquis which threw off their entire offense. That wont be the case with baylor who have struggled to apply pressure against their tougher opponents. UNC should win outright.

Wisconsin +4 (-110) Risking 1.10 units to win 1 units
Another BIG10 vs PAC12 matchup where Im siding with the BIG 10 again. Despite the last few years where the PAC12 has beat up on the BIG10, this year BIG10 is 4-2 vs the PAC12. Always like to have some points with the better defense, MUCH better defense that is. Wisconsins offense is inconsistent but their defense should be able to keep them in this game. These PAC 12 teams are just getting WAAAY too much credit this season, USC's SOS is ranked #3. I had to do a double take and go back and look at their schedule and sure enough its complete BS with their hardest game being against notre dame when ND was even completely banged up and lost by 10. I dont give a fuk they played stanford twice, or utah, or ucla, or oregon....these teams fuking suck and none of them have any respectable defense. These teams would get smashed by the majority of BIG 10 and SEC on any given day. These misconceptions are giving us a lot of value in these matchups and we will continue to hammer them.

Clemson +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Clemson ML (+165) Risking .5 units to win .83 units
Venables is one of the best DC's in the nation. Oklahoma getting waaaaaay too much hype. I think I have less respect for the BIG 12 than I do the PAC 12. Im even reading in some places that Oklahoma has the best out of conference schedule? who the fuk came up with this shit? tennessee, akron, tulsa? Am I missing something here? what teams in their conference wasnt riddled with injuries when they beat them? This line is penetrating nuts. I love baker mayfield but hes going to be running for his freaking life against this front who consistently able to apply pressure and throw even elite offenses all out of whack (like unc)

Texas A&M +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Even though A&M has been a mess all year this matchup favors their strengths and It should be a close game. Louisvilles defense has been really strong at stopping the run but A&M is a pass heavy team. Louisvilles offenses biggest weakness is their offensive line and their ability to protect which is Texas A&Ms only respectable position on their defense, their defensive line and ability to rush the passer. Lousivilles oline ranks #123 in pass protection giving up 10.13% sack %, while A&Ms defensive lines sack % is ranked 6th getting sacks on 9.09% of passes. Lousiville is also one of the more penalized teams in the country as well as ranking 121st in giveways per game at 2.3. Sumlin is also a mastermind at prepping for specific teams and exploiting their weaknesses, he is 4-1 ATS in bowl games, and he is 6-2 ATS in home openers. I love petrino and all but he is 2-6 ATS in bowls. According to Todd McShays NFL draft prospects (which I dont necessarily hold much weight in), A&M has 10 NFL prospects while Louisville only has 5. Solidifying this pick is the contrarian aspect as public perception of texas a&m and sumlin is at an all time low.

[shopbar picks]

Love the Unc play. But way too much turmoil in aggie land. All Qbs left. Don't think they give a crap about the game. And going against you on Clemson. I will probably regret it but OU has the best OC in the country. But defense wins. Bol

[shopbar picks]

Can't wait to see your thoughts on the rose bowl. Iowa is a great team. McCaffrey is the best player in college football

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 16
Cowboys +6.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Jets +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Packers +6 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Rams +11.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unita

[Smutbucket]

Can't wait to see your thoughts on the rose bowl. Iowa is a great team. McCaffrey is the best player in college football

Ya all season I been praising iowa and ripping on stanford so ya the writings on the wall...iowa big...



Bowl Additions:
Pitt/Navy Over 52.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units

[Notorious_Donk]

I like the bowl picks. BOL Dapper!

[No coincidences]

Bowl Additions:
Pitt/Navy Over 52.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units

Great call. Have no idea why this number dipped as far as it did.

[Smutbucket]

Great call. Have no idea why this number dipped as far as it did.

Ya I know the low number scared me down to a half unit even though pitts defense really was bad towards the end of the season especially against option and navy defense has been susceptible to the pass....wish I woulda did a full unit

I like the bowl picks. BOL Dapper!

thanks bud

[Smutbucket]

NFL Week 15: 3-3 -.85 units
NFL Week 16 2-2 -.2 units

As shitty as NFL has been this season betting, Im actually probably about even in NFL lately from LIVE bets....their has been so many good ones lately, DEN tonight, JAX sunday (JAX every sunday practically), .....steelers and saints last sunday....all these went down big early and were offering ridiculously good live lines and been cashing easily....how do the books survive giving out these gifts? don't think know huge point swings are common in the nfl....

[Smutbucket]

Never seen a worse game plan for a bowl game before.....this is hard to watch....these defensive formations unc is lining up in is not even requiring Baylor to block and they can still get 5 yards..... Does chizikk realize this qb can't throw deep? Also didnt realize unc oc left...play calling been subpar...taking way too many unecessary shots when given short passes....doesn't look good hopefully defense can restrategize

[LtDarsh]

Never seen a worse game plan for a bowl game before.....this is hard to watch....these defensive formations unc is lining up in is not even requiring Baylor to block and they can still get 5 yards..... Does chizikk realize this qb can't throw deep? Also didnt realize unc oc left...play calling been subpar...taking way too many unecessary shots when given short passes....doesn't look good hopefully defense can restrategize

I have faith, they get the ball back in the second half and if they score there they are back in it

[Smutbucket]

BOWL ADDITIONS:

Wisconsin ML (+155) Risking .5 units to win .78 units

Michigan State +10 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units\

2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Ole Miss -1 and Northwestern +14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Fitzgerald is good at prepping his team for bowls as he is 4-1 ATS and usually keeps games close. Getting an extra 6 from the set line shouldnt be a problem to cover. Ole Miss offense probably the best in college football, will take them to win by 1 all day against another over-rated big 12 team.


Iowa +6 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Iowa ML (+230) Risking .5 units to win 1.15 units
Iowa TT Over 23.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
Think this Iowa team is once against under appreciated as is typical with Ferentz who is 8-4 ATS in bowls. Talked about the shittyness of stanford in the beginning of the season. Still believe it to be so as for much of the PAC 12. Stanfords soft defense (especially d-line) has gone much undetected or talked about sitting at #80 allowing 4.6 yards per rush. Iowas elite o-line should be able run all over this stanford defense and easily keep this a 7 point game. sprinkle some on the ml as iowa can win outright given hogans inconsistency, shaws playcalling, and the dynamic ability of my boy beathard. Iowa easily covers and possibly wins a good game.

[Smutbucket]

penetrating pissed off college kickers always penetrate me....tex a&m senior kicker 81% from under 50 this year and he misses an easy 39 yard kick....what are the odds

BOWL CARD: 4-3 -.47 units
Nebraska +7.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units WIN + 1
Temple -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Pitt/Navy Over 52.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units WIN +.5
UNC ML (-155) Risking 1.55 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.55 First 1.5x unit bet loss all season
Wisconsin +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units WIN +1
Wisconsin ML (+155) Risking .5 units to win .78 units WIN +.78 units
Texas A&M +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.1
Iowa +6 (-110) Risking 1.65 units to win 1.5 units
Iowa ML (+230) Risking .5 units to win 1.15 units
Iowa TT Over 23.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
Michigan State +10 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Clemson +4 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Clemson ML (+165) Risking .5 units to win .83 units
2 Team 6 pt Teaser. Ole Miss -1 and Northwestern +14 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units

[Notorious_Donk]

Nice hit on Clemson dapper. Now Mich St just needs to turn it around