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Week 7 NFL:
NFL Week 7:
Lions +2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Titans +7 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Texans +4.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Cowboys +3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Week 7 NFL Results:
1-3 -2.3 units
Dammit LIONS! everytime I bet them they come up with huge lead then get dominated whole 2nd half...I even tell myself....damn danny just penetrating bet lions 1st half next time....a couple weeks go by...things happen....I get distracted....I see an appealing lions line......and quickly lock it in qithout even considering 1st half......im writing this to try to remind myself in the future never to bet lions whole game and only 1st half.....
Also as for NCAAF....no more teasers for a while....I gotta go back and look but years past I remember being much more successful with them....this year they're killing me....Continue hot streak for totals and 1.5 unit bets still hitting 100% on the season....
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NCAAF Week 9
Pittsburgh +3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Ya finnally some thrusday night action! Anyways not much of a writeup needed as I already talked much about my love for narduzzi and this pitt team in previous posts. UNC has been breezing through a cupcake schedule so far to date (Ranked 66) and their schedule really picks up at the end of the season and it starts with a roadtrip to pitt. Pitt D is legit allowing opponents only 292.7 yards per game, ranked 8th. Now their defenses opponents yards per play is ranked 34th at 4.9 yards per play because they are a possession type team (ranking 20th in TOP %) that likes to control the clock and keep opposing defenses on the field. This plays right into UNC's weakness as they are ranked a terrible 128th place with a TOP % at 38%. UNC's big play high powered offensive attack will not be facing the bad defenses theyve been playing to date. We can definately expect a few INTs from our boy Marquis Williams as Pitt is ranked 8th best defense in INT % at 4.94% while Marquis and the UNC offense averages 5.19% per pass attempt (ranked 118th) . UNC is also averaging almost 2 more penalties per game than Pitt. Although UNC has beat pitt both times in the last 2 season, that was before the arrival of narduzzi. Lock this one as soon as you can as I only see this dropping more by kickoff.Comment -
Man did I get lucky on Toledo
Good week in NCAAF again
GL this week!Comment -
NCAAF Week 9 Additions:
Notre Dame/Temple Under 51.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Can anyone explain to me why this total is so high? I see this being at 21-17 type game max....don't really get it....has me worried but I figure Notre Dames offense is being overvalued with a 38 pts per game even though the only respectable defense they've played is clemson which they only put up 22 on. Temples defense this year is very respectable (I only watched first week against penn state) but according to numbers they been dominant (of course not against power 5 competition but...) averaging almost 8 TFL per game, and ranked 9th in both (3.0)rush yards per play and (5.5) passing yards per play. They are very experienced as the entire defense returned from last year that gave up 17 ppg, 4.0 yards per rush and only 6.3 yards per pass attempt last year. Although Notre Dames defense is banged up, Temples offense has not been particularly successful in years past although they have been this year (only sporting a 5.1 yards per play ranked 81st) but against some very easy competition (except penn state opening game), this will be their toughest test to date. Both teams are also run heavy teams so expect the clock to run. Should be a loud crowd I would expect as gameday will be there and temple is undefeated so should cause some issues and false starts for notre dame offense as well. Was tempted to lay the points with temple (which I may still do) but as for now I like the total better than anything.
Florida -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
How does anyone bet on richt in a big game? How is he still the coach of georgia? I pointed out earlier in the season how terrible he is against tough competition (3-14 now I think) and this florida team is very talented. Although I was skeptical of McElwain in beginning of season he has proven himself respectable as he turned around this florida team pretty well already. Although treon is starting, I dont see this uga offense moving the ball much at all against this uf defense and grayson lambert is in for another nightmare performance as the offense will be depended on him as they shouldnt be able to run against this UF front thats holding opponents to 3.5 yards per rush. Good coaches recognize how shitty grayson lambert is (kinda explains why richt does not) and they will stack box and force lambert to beat them with their arm, which he is incapable of doing. I see this being a blowout so we will comfortably take the 3 points.
Georgia Team Total Under 21.5 (-115) Risking .57 units to win .5 units
Syracuse Team Total Over 14.5 (-130) Risking .65 units to win .5 unitsComment -
Vtech -2 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Despite having lost the last 2 years to addazio and this BC team, I dont see how BC can keep up with vtech in this game. Vtechs offense is clicking and really took off last week with the return of brewer (despite the loss) Louisville showed the recipe for beating BC last week by stacking the box, stopping the obvious runs and forcing their shitty backup QBs to throw (whichever they decide to put in) They held bc to -14 rushing yards on 30 carries, yes thats -.5 yards per carry. Vtechs defense is more than capable of doing this and manning up with their corners and beamer will have them ready to do so putting this BC offense in obvious 3rd and long passing situations where vtech can dial up the pressure and rack up sacks like louisville did last week getting 8 against BC. BC has only passed for 834 yards in 8 games on the season. BC defense can only keep them in so many games and It has to be frustrating for them. Eventually they will wear down and VTECH will move the ball on offense as Brewer is mobile and able to handle pressure, like he did last season against BC when he passed for 345 yards averaging 7.2 yards per pass attempt and 2 TDs (1 rushing TD too). Bought the half point as sometimes these are close games but I think we end up with a 10 point win atleast...Comment -
NFL Week 8:
Dolphins +9 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Dolphins ML (+320) Risking .5 units to win 1.6 unitsComment -
Nvm that last message haha.
Im following the ncaaf picks though! Heres to a great saturday
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what were you talking shit about my nfl picks? haha jk....im plagued by homerism, one of these days Ill have to lookup how much money Ive lost on the hurricanes and dolphins over the last few years and debate whether or not I really like teams that lose me a ton of money constantly, haha, times are a changing though new coaching staffs on both so reason to continue to bet them
....still about even on season on nfl maybe down -.5 units, will total up this weekend....
got one more NCAAF play adding now and one adding tmrw...when lines are released I think the 2nd one will move in my favor so waiting.....very surprised uf game went to -2 and pissed I didnt wait.....who the penetrates betting georgia....also.... to larry kill....will go down as one of the best 2nd half adjustment coaches of all time....you will be missed and your passion for the game is evident. hope you find peace in retirement and fix the medical issues that have been ailing you.
Oklahoma State -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
As much as I like mahomes and this TTech offense. Their defense is just terrible. Ranking 122nd in yards per rush giving up almost 6 yards per rush (granted they played baylor and tcu recently but even the shitty teams they played ran all over them; with kansas being the least of the bunch and still rushing for 145 yards on 40 carries.) Their pass defense is allowing 8.2 yards per pass ranking 109th. Also they are allowing their opponents to convert on 3rd downs 50% of the time (ranking 121st). Meanwhile on the other side of the ball, you have an oklahoma state defense that has been playing quite well, against some weak competition but that could also be said about t-techs opponents outside of baylor/tcu.Ok state is only allowing 3.4 yards per rush almost half that of t-tech, as well as 6.3 yards per pass. They are also ranked 2 in sack % with 12.08 % but doubt that has much of an effect of this short pass quick release offense but I just put my money on oklahoma state getting a few stops and turnover while t-tech continues to not stop anyone. Mike Gundy is also one of these great ATS coaches who is hitting around 60% ATS over the last few years and I remember seeing some stat somewhere where hes like 75% as a road favorite.Comment -
NCAAF Week 9 Card:
Pittsburgh +3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.15 units
Vtech -2 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Notre Dame/Temple Under 51.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma State -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Georgia Team Total Under 21.5 (-115) Risking .57 units to win .5 units
Syracuse Team Total Over 14.5 (-130) Risking .65 units to win .5 units
will add atleast one tmrw.....Comment -
lol maybe.. just didnt want to be that guy who comes in and talks crap after the game ends haha.. i live in MA, but hate the pats. still bet them almost every week because they are good lol.what were you talking shit about my nfl picks? haha jk....im plagued by homerism, one of these days Ill have to lookup how much money Ive lost on the hurricanes and dolphins over the last few years and debate whether or not I really like teams that lose me a ton of money constantly, haha, times are a changing though new coaching staffs on both so reason to continue to bet them....still about even on season on nfl maybe down -.5 units, will total up this weekend....Comment -
oops noticed I forgot to put my UF pick in card....also adding a 2 team ML parlay...
NCAAF Week 9 Card:
Pittsburgh +3 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units LOSS -1.15 units
Vtech -2 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Notre Dame/Temple Under 51.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Oklahoma State -2 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Georgia Team Total Under 21.5 (-115) Risking .57 units to win .5 units
Syracuse Team Total Over 14.5 (-130) Risking .65 units to win .5 units
Florida -3 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
2 Team ML Parlay(-112): Ole Miss ML (-330) and Gtech (-220) Risking 1.12 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Cuse with an early td lets get it!Comment -
What an absolutely pathetic play by VTech after getting that turnover on the punt. Throwing a fade in the endzone is by far the worst play in the history of football (in my opinion). The BC guy had like 10 seconds to sit and wait for that ball to land in his arms. UnbelieveableComment -
Lol there we go. Thats more like it. 17-0 like it shoulda been. Letsgo.Comment -
ha nice....I turned cuse game off....awesome to see they scored a late BS TD.....
Week 9 Adding:
Michigan -11.5 (-110) Risking .55 units to win .5 units
Vandy +11 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Vandy goes to undefeated powerhouse houston (sarcasm implied). Probably the most fluffiest schedule to date (not sure how team rankings has them rated only 87 in SOS) Houstons opponents have a combined 11-31 record, with their most difficult game being a 1 dimensional louisville offense team they barely won by 3., where they needed a kickoff return for a td and a late comeback against a tired louisville defense. It seems since that game their schedule has been get progressively softer and softer until finally they face vandy. Teams get complacent when facing soft teams week in and week out like this and I expect houston to have a tough time with its first SEC opponent, especially under 1st year probably smug head coach tom herman, running all over his shitty opponents. Vandy should give houston a variety of looks on offense with a 2 QB system and if one struggles look for the other to come in and mix it up whether it be shurmur their pocket passer or mccrary their dual threat guy both battling for starting position. I also heard rain is in the forecast so thatll help keep this a close game.Comment -
this backup qb for michigan is god damn awful... unfortunate outcome on this game.Comment -
nice day either way
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NFL Week 8
Atlanta Team Total Over 28.5 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Bears +2.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Jets/Oak Under 44 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Steelers pk (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 unitsComment -
Ugh...Rough
Adding
Packers ML (-155) Risking 1.55 units to win 1 unitsComment -
NFL hasnt treated you well, but NCAAF sure has!
GL this week Smut!!
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...Been up all season in NFL until this awful weekend but whatever....
NFL Week 8: 0-7 -7.7 units
NCAAF 2015 Season YTD:
53-26 (67%) +26.03 units
NFL 2015 Season YTD:
20-23 (47%) -6.73 units
need to put more work in to nfl...been real lazy lately....killing my bankroll though even though only 50% of NCAAF....gotta focus... goal is to end up in the + i dont give a penetrate if its just plus 1 unit....Comment -
All good Ive been highly inconsistent in NFL and erratic. early on had a big week with no losses than had a terrible week with no wins twice now...historically faired well after terrible weeks like this one so I should have a bounce back.....gonna put the work in this week
NCAAF Week 10 1st play:
UGA/Kentucky Under 57.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Yes I like this under despite having 94 points scored in last years matchup between these two teams. UGAs defense has been stellar and a little overlooked with all their offensive woes. Pruitt in his 2nd year as DC has really established a strong DEF that has allowed only 31% 3rd down conv % by opposing teams and 3.7 yards per rush despite having faced some very hard running teams like bama, tennessee and florida. They were worn down by the end of the game and got run all over by uf last week but thats because their offense was so inept and deflating, dropped those ypc #'s alot also. They also are really stepping up in the redzone only allowing opponents to score on 68% of red zone trips (ranked 7th) Both teams are slow moving offenses and expect UGA to run heavy and slow the game down giving time for their defense to rest. Their offense should continue to struggle as it searches for a QB, hopefully they just dont run for 300 yards and 7.55 yards per carry like they did last year but that can be largely attributed to chubb. Hopefully lambert starts as we know he's terrible, poor Bauta kid had to face one of the toughest defenses in the college football in his first start so its a bit of a unknown factor of how he'd perform against a very weak uk secondary. Think this one safely goes under as last years shootout is skewing the line upwards than it should be.Comment -
hey man what do you think about cuse +14 @ louisville?Comment -
Kansas State +17.5 (-120) Risking 1.2 units to win 1 units
Okay so I originally wasn't going to touch this game but found a few interesting trends tonight that made me lean in this direction pretty heavily. And I am predominately a numbers guy who focuses on stats first than follow up with trends but this game just caught my eye because their are many interesting impactful trends that make me lean this way heavily I could not shy away from. (not to mention baylors new starting QB so you can throw all of the padded stats against the 109th worst SOS schedule [TR has ranked at 55th I dont know why but I saw a stat on ESPN that said their SOS was 109th; not sure what SOS criteria ESPN uses but seems more valid than TRs in this instance]) First off in head 2 head coaching matchup Briles is 2-3 ATS vs Snyder. Baylor is also coming off a bye and I remembered an article I had randomly stumbled across earlier in the season (http://sportsgambling.about.com/od/n...ncaafbbyes.htm) Basically it talks about how college teams historically under-perform after a bye at an extremely high rate, theory is that college students are young and need routines that are thrown out of whack during bye weeks...especially on the road, I am still learning to use SDQL so I couldnt exactly verify for myself (any SDQL guys out there can check the numbers and let me know the query, I would love to see for myself) and especially as a favorite of 10 points or more. Teams after a bye playing as a road favorite of 10 or more points are something like 33% ATS, coincidentally this exact scenario. Not to mention the injury of the starting QB, not to mention Snyders 65% + ATS home record and 75%+ ATS after a loss. Like I said, Im not normally a trend guy, and usually only bet teams I frequently watch (which I havent watched either of these teams for more than 5 min all year) but this games just screaming to take the dog here trend wise and I must do so.Comment -
I've done a few SDQL queries in my dayComment -
Week 10 NCAAF Additions:
Syracuse +14.5 (-110) Risking 1.1 units to win 1 units
Louisville has yet to blow out any team but their one FCS opponent. They have shown more and more every week that their offense is one dimensional and teams can prepare for that. They are currently rushing for 3.1 yards per carry on the season, ranked 120th. Lamar Jackson is banged up, often inconsistent and turnover prone. Their biggest weakness offensively is their offensive line, which has allowed 33 sacks on the season at an alarming 11.41% ranked 124th. If lamar jacksons still having ankle issues this will surely be an issue for the louisville offense with their weak offensive line, backup kyle bolin isnt the same run threat that jackson is. On the other side of the ball we have syracuse that has lost 4 straight, but I really like their athletic dual threat QB Eric Dungey. He makes smart decisions, has a nice quick release and can move the ball effectively with his legs. He shouldnt have a problem throwing against this Louisville defense that has been susceptible to the run, and despite louisvilles strong run defensive ranking of 11th allowing 3.1 yards per carry, it has been heavily padded against weak offenses. Defensively Syracuse has a few key injuries but maybe thats for the best as their defense has been shitty as of late. I just think this is too many points against a more than capable syracuse offense, if things go bad early a backdoor at this number is more than probable but I think it will be close throughout.
LSU +7 (-115) Risking 1.15 units to win 1 units
Love this LSU team. Brandon Harris has been improving a lot throughout the season and what I love about him is he doesn't make mistakes, 0 INTs on the season. He rarely throws but when he does he puts it in places that only his receivers can catch. They are also one of the most efficient offenses averaging 2nd most points per play and sporting 21st ranked yards per pass at 8.5. (1.4 yards more than bama) Dont have to say anything about LF do I? Turnover margin is a huge factor in these big rivalry games and LSU has proven trustworthy of protecting the ball as they have only avged .3 giveaways per game (#2) while bama is averaging 1.8 (#81) giveaways per game. Also we have big edge in kicking game as LSUs kicker is 100% on the season while bamas kicker is only on 62.5% on the season. This is too many points and I think a lot of people are looking at last years game where LSU lost by 7 in death valley but these were two different teams then without jennings and sims leading their offenses. Worth a look on ML too whenever its released. might even add a half unit on play closer to game time just wanted to lock in atleast a unit at this number.
2 Team ML Parlay (-106) Iowa ML (-260) and Michigan State (-250) Risking 1.06 units to win 1 unitsComment -
love that cuse made the slate!
another nice pick on K St, good work!Comment