Pivotpoint's Picks 2014

[Pivotpoint]

Pending

Ark +8 1/2 WON

Temple -5 1/2 WON

Clemson - 14 1/2 WON

Duke + 6 1/2 (2x) LOSS

Duke ML +225 (1X) LOSS

Adding.

195 Wash St + 14 WON (Outright Winner)

Line opened at 10, dipped to 9 and now sitting at two tds's. Utah looked good against Wolves, but Michigan blows. Is Utah as good as their 3-0 record or better yet, is WSU as bad as 1-3 SU record? Cats gave Ducks all they could handle last week and season will be in a funk if they lose again today. Give me Halliday and that air raid offense with the two touchdowns. Cats should keep it close and backdoor will be live with that high speed passing game till the final gun.

124 Virginia -25 1/2 WON

Last second addition. Cavs undefeated against spread. Flashes a woeful 4-10-1 spread run. Kent St is horrible. I'm not sure why this line has dipped a bit, but I'll bite on a Cav team that has looked strong vs a Reeling Kent St squad.

gl

Turned the corner today. Could have swept the table if Duke would have backdoored Miami. Canes outplayed Devils, but they hung around and were live till the end. Doubling down on Duke hurt my posted results. QB Boone played scared. Duke Center had a rough game to boot, but Miami D played better than expected. Live and learn.

NCAA WK 5

5-2 + 1.84 UNITS

NCAA YTD

11-9 -.94

[Pivotpoint]

NFL WK#4

Bears ML + 110

I’ll take the Bears at home plus money. Rodgers not the same and appears to only have Jordy Nelson to throw to. Wounded Bears D should benefit @ home against biggest rival. Lacy not running the same since concussion. Jeffrey should be good to go and Bennet and Marshall should give Packer secondary issues. Bears D line has a bit more speed this year and should be able to put pressure on Rodgers. Look for the Bears to try and get Forte on track against a suspect Packer D. Raji a key cog missing in the middle. If Cutler plays a solid game, Bears should come away with the win. Robbie Gould could be the difference in a tight game.

Jets Ml +105

Lions have a habit of looking great in the Metrodome and then looking like a different team on the road. Geno needs to limit turnovers and Jets secondary a bit soft. Rex should have some defensive schemes in the bag to put pressure on Stafford. Both teams have nice front sevens on D. Simple play against the Lions on the road. Jets need a win.

Eagles +4

49ers lead the league in penalties. Their secondary should be tested by Chip Kelly’s fast paced wide open attack. Eagles scoring points, 49ers sputtering on offense. I’ll take anything over a field goal with a hot Eagle squad.

Saints -3

Cowboy defense looks soft this year. Give me Coach Payton all day vs Coach Garret. Brees wins the match up with Romo. Saints need this win and I always get a little satisfaction when “Americas Team” loses.


6pt teaser .5X = 5.2X

Bears+8
Jets +7 12
Steelers - 1 1/2
Chargers - 6 1/2
Eagles +10
Chiefs +9

gl with your plays

[Pivotpoint]

NFL WK#4

Bears ML + 110 loss

I’ll take the Bears at home plus money. Rodgers not the same and appears to only have Jordy Nelson to throw to. Wounded Bears D should benefit @ home against biggest rival. Lacy not running the same since concussion. Jeffrey should be good to go and Bennet and Marshall should give Packer secondary issues. Bears D line has a bit more speed this year and should be able to put pressure on Rodgers. Look for the Bears to try and get Forte on track against a suspect Packer D. Raji a key cog missing in the middle. If Cutler plays a solid game, Bears should come away with the win. Robbie Gould could be the difference in a tight game.

Jets Ml +105 loss

Lions have a habit of looking great in the Metrodome and then looking like a different team on the road. Geno needs to limit turnovers and Jets secondary a bit soft. Rex should have some defensive schemes in the bag to put pressure on Stafford. Both teams have nice front sevens on D. Simple play against the Lions on the road. Jets need a win.

Eagles +4 loss

49ers lead the league in penalties. Their secondary should be tested by Chip Kelly’s fast paced wide open attack. Eagles scoring points, 49ers sputtering on offense. I’ll take anything over a field goal with a hot Eagle squad.

Saints -3 loss

Cowboy defense looks soft this year. Give me Coach Payton all day vs Coach Garret. Brees wins the match up with Romo. Saints need this win and I always get a little satisfaction when “Americas Team” loses.


6pt teaser .5X = 5.2X loss

Bears+8
Jets +7 12
Steelers - 1 1/2
Chargers - 6 1/2
Eagles +10
Chiefs +9

gl with your plays

Brutal day being swept on Sunday. I had to grade this at some point. You always hope to avoid the (O'fer) when you lay your money down. Can't remember the last time this happened. Going to focus more on college. NFL has been tough this year.

NFL
4-11 -9.46
Parlays 0-2 -1.0

College
11-9 -.94

[Pivotpoint]

A nice day in college was followed by a nightmare day in the NFL. Can’t seem to get it rolling in the NFL. Going to stick with college only going forward.

College wk#6

386 Miss St - 2 1/2

Two undefeated teams matchup @ noon in Starksville. While A&M defense much improved over last year, they were still gashed for 485 yards by Hogs. Aggies lucky to pull that one out and have to still be feeling the effects from the big and physical Razorback style of play. Bulldogs off a bye, at home and looking for their first win against Aggies in almost 100 years.

QB Hill as a freshman has done nothing but impress. On the other side of the ball is a potential heisman candidate Zak Prescott. 11 tds and only two picks. Can do damage with his arm or legs ( 100 + yds on the ground in death valley). Rebels front seven looks strong and they bring a nicely balanced offensive attack to the game.

383 Alabama - 6 (-116)

Another undefeated team fresh off a bye and at home. I usually back this Rebel team but they have showed a few cracks and didn’t look real sharp against Memphis. Bo Wallace is a stud, but he has 6 picks and will need a perfect game. Tide QB Blake Sims has been on fire hitting 73% of his passes for 8 TD’s and only 2 Picks. Sims and Armari Cooper have nice rapport. Cooper has 6 straight games of over 100 yards receiving. Bama has a nice stable of backs . Bama has owned the Rebs winning 10 straight. Make it 11.

368 Notre Dame + 2

I rarely go against the Trees. Love their disciplined rock solid defense. They’ve owned the Irish of late, but at times struggle to score. Second straight road trip for Trees after lucky late win over Huskies due to foolish fake punt. They worry e a bit with conservative play calls. Can’t get that out of my head that Golson hit 25 straight passes off the Cuse last week. 11 TD’s only two picks. He was out in last years game and should be the difference today. I’ll take the points and the home dog.

410 Michigan State -7

Believe the Spartans have a nice defensive edge here. Husker D might be under rated, we’ll know after this game. I wanted to take the Huskers in this game, but I’m still not sold on that D. Huskers ran all over Canes, but Canes Frosh QB threw for + 300 yards against Husker secondary. Illinois is horrible, but they lucked out a bit with Lunt out and faced a second stringer. Connor Cook could cause problems. DAntonio over Pelini all day. Sparty in what some might say a must win game.

Finally, I spotted two teams that I really like, but the numbers are high. When I looked a little closer, a couple things popped out to me.
Both teams are home and coming off a bye. They are each facing teams that are having miserable seasons. Neither can pass and both just fired their coaches mid season. Trickett and Carden having monster season and should have huge games. I thought about a two team parlay . I ended up teasing these two games with some combinations of other teams I like. The two teams are W. Virginia and East Carolina. Below, (3) 6 team ~ 6 1/2 pt teasers off the board. 1/2 unit each pays 5.85 units.


328 E.Carolina -33 1/2 328 E. Carolina -33 1/2
336 W. Virginia -19 1/2 336 W.Virginia -19 1/2
368 Notre Dame +8 1/2 368 Notre Dame +8 1/2
383 Alabama Pick 383 Alabama Pick
410 Michigan State - 1/2 410 Michigan St - 1/2
386 Miss St +4 386 Miss St +4
370 USC -5 1/2 370 USC - 5 1/2
372 Auburn -1 372 Auburn -1
332 Virginia Pick
376 TCU +11 1/2

Gl with your plays.

[Pivotpoint]

Should have checked that cut and paste on the teasers before posting.Here they are again.

#1
E. Car - 33 1/2
W. Virginia - 19 1/2
Notre Dame + 8 1/2
Alabama ~ Pick
Mich St -1/2
Miss St +4

#2
E. Car -33 1/2
W. Virginia - 19 1/2
Notre Dame + 8 1/2
Alabama ~ Pick
USC - 5 1/2
Auburn -1

#3
Mich St - 1/2
Miss St +4
USC - 5 1/2
Auburn -1
Virginia ~ Pick
TCU + 11 1/2

.5 UNIT EACH PAYS 5.85 UNITS.

[Urbanwildlife]

You have SUPER PICS this week! Nothing anyone can comment on that you have not covered in your commentary. I know we are going to be meeting at the pay window, that is a definite!

[Pivotpoint]

Thanks Urban.

Time to start getting hot in conference play.

Good Luck with your picks.

[Urbanwildlife]

Did not think it was possible, because I do not believe in love, I believe in happiness, and feel it is not often the two go together, but I JUST FELL IN LOVE!

[Pivotpoint]

I hear ya. She's an 11 and that racks a 12.

She'd say jump and I'd say how high.

Stunning.

[shopbar picks]

Pivot very good write ups. I bet msu -6 and the skers +9 from my local cmon middle. My favorite play of the week is Colorado St. Any thoughts. TIA

[tennesseety]

Thanks as always, Pivot. I was already on Bama, ECU and WVU. Sorry for my poor assessment of my Vols last week. Wish that 32 was enough points!

[Pivotpoint]

Shopbar, Haven't seen Tulsa play this year. I did catch the end of that CSU game against BC. Rams hit that TD pass with a minute left for a huge upset. I didn't highlight this game so took a second to dig into. Here's a few bullet points that support your pick.

Rams show up as a Technical play.

Rams covered 16 of last 21 and 7 of last 9 @ Hughes stadium.

Golden Hurricane reeling 4-12 vs number since 2013, 0-4 as a road dog.

Tulsa coming off a demoralizing triple OT loss @ home to Texas St.

Tulsa plays no defense and you have to think Blankenship's job in jeopardy. He's likely working on his resume seeing he has a horrible D and his QB Evans has been killing team with 7 picks.

CSU qb Grayson looked sharp last week against Eagles. Has 10 TDP so far.

Rams have to be walking around feeling good about themselves after returning from East Coast with a win. BC not an easy place to play for visitors, ask the Trojans. That # came out at two td's + the hook and hasn't budged.

Rams should roll here. My only concern is Rams D is ranked pretty low. Then again, Hurricane even worse and Rams have superior offense, better qb and better coach in McElwain.

gl with your play

[Pivotpoint]

Thanks as always, Pivot. I was already on Bama, ECU and WVU. Sorry for my poor assessment of my Vols last week. Wish that 32 was enough points!

tennesseety, how about that line move on Gators vs Vols? Gators shaded -1 on the open and now Vols - 2 1/2.

Vols haven't beat Gators straight up for a decade. They might break that trend on Sat. Driskel not looking sharp and Muschamp losing support with Gator fans. It can't help that ex Gators Murphy @ BC and Brisset @ NCST might have made a big difference.

Butch Jones looks like he has the teams attention and respect. Will Rocky Top be playing Sat night in TN?

[shopbar picks]

Thanks for the insight.

[Urbanwildlife]

tennesseety, how about that line move on Gators vs Vols? Gators shaded -1 on the open and now Vols - 2 1/2.

Vols haven't beat Gators straight up for a decade. They might break that trend on Sat. Driskel not looking sharp and Muschamp losing support with Gator fans. It can't help that ex Gators Murphy @ BC and Brisset @ NCST might have made a big difference.

Butch Jones looks like he has the teams attention and respect. Will Rocky Top be playing Sat night in TN?

Yes Rocky Top is going to be playing and the stadium is going to be rocking! I actually think Tennessee is going to win the game. It is going to be one of my favorite games to watch this weekend.

[tennesseety]

tennesseety, how about that line move on Gators vs Vols? Gators shaded -1 on the open and now Vols - 2 1/2.

Vols haven't beat Gators straight up for a decade. They might break that trend on Sat. Driskel not looking sharp and Muschamp losing support with Gator fans. It can't help that ex Gators Murphy @ BC and Brisset @ NCST might have made a big difference.

Butch Jones looks like he has the teams attention and respect. Will Rocky Top be playing Sat night in TN?

Man, I have to think we win this one, but told myself I won't bet on us until we finally win one. I love how this team has responded to Butch. We just seem to be snake bit against them. I am not the one to ask about this game. Too many emotions. I can promise I will be singing Rocky Top should we win, haha!

[tennesseety]

Yes Rocky Top is going to be playing and the stadium is going to be rocking! I actually think Tennessee is going to win the game. It is going to be one of my favorite games to watch this weekend.

Oh, Urban, that video got me way too excited. Haha!

[Urbanwildlife]

Tennessee is one of my favorite teams, because I have had the opportunity to party at the stadium on 3 occasions, and it was sooooooooooo much fun!

[Pivotpoint]

Anyone hear anything about Alabama? I just logged in and noticed line dipped to -4.

[Urbanwildlife]

Nothing and I have been paying attention.

[Pivotpoint]

I've been digging, contemplating on adding to position.

Looks like there was some concern about QB Sims shoulder injury from Gator game. I checked the Tide site and they had Sims on a what they called a pitch count, limiting passes in practice to rest shoulder. Saban says he will be good to go on game day. Coker isn't bad, but Sims really adds another threat with his legs.

The Bama site is also saying WR White will be a game time decision.

[Urbanwildlife]

I saw that but thanks!

[Pivotpoint]

[QUOTE=Pivotpoint;22708901]A nice day in college was followed by a nightmare day in the NFL. Can’t seem to get it rolling in the NFL. Going to stick with college only going forward.

College wk#6

386 Miss St - 2 1/2 WON

Two undefeated teams matchup @ noon in Starksville. While A&M defense much improved over last year, they were still gashed for 485 yards by Hogs. Aggies lucky to pull that one out and have to still be feeling the effects from the big and physical Razorback style of play. Bulldogs off a bye, at home and looking for their first win against Aggies in almost 100 years.

QB Hill as a freshman has done nothing but impress. On the other side of the ball is a potential heisman candidate Zak Prescott. 11 tds and only two picks. Can do damage with his arm or legs ( 100 + yds on the ground in death valley). Rebels front seven looks strong and they bring a nicely balanced offensive attack to the game.

383 Alabama - 6 (-116) LOSS

Another undefeated team fresh off a bye and at home. I usually back this Rebel team but they have showed a few cracks and didn’t look real sharp against Memphis. Bo Wallace is a stud, but he has 6 picks and will need a perfect game. Tide QB Blake Sims has been on fire hitting 73% of his passes for 8 TD’s and only 2 Picks. Sims and Armari Cooper have nice rapport. Cooper has 6 straight games of over 100 yards receiving. Bama has a nice stable of backs . Bama has owned the Rebs winning 10 straight. Make it 11.

368 Notre Dame + 2 WON

I rarely go against the Trees. Love their disciplined rock solid defense. They’ve owned the Irish of late, but at times struggle to score. Second straight road trip for Trees after lucky late win over Huskies due to foolish fake punt. They worry e a bit with conservative play calls. Can’t get that out of my head that Golson hit 25 straight passes off the Cuse last week. 11 TD’s only two picks. He was out in last years game and should be the difference today. I’ll take the points and the home dog.

410 Michigan State -7 LOSS

Believe the Spartans have a nice defensive edge here. Husker D might be under rated, we’ll know after this game. I wanted to take the Huskers in this game, but I’m still not sold on that D. Huskers ran all over Canes, but Canes Frosh QB threw for + 300 yards against Husker secondary. Illinois is horrible, but they lucked out a bit with Lunt out and faced a second stringer. Connor Cook could cause problems. DAntonio over Pelini all day. Sparty in what some might say a must win game.

Summary-

Besides that shocker with Alabama, things were looking great up until late. Spartans were cruising and I thought I would go 3-1 on the straight bets. I only needed USC - 5 1/2 to cash a 6 team parlay (#3). Spartans collapse giving up 19 points in the 4q. Then USC gave up a garbage back door late. I was surprised that the freshman qb for Arizona St looked pretty darn good on the road. I thought Bama was way to conservative with play calling but OL Miss D was strong and Bo Wallace played well. Little surprised that Bama opened - 9 1/2 at Arkansas this weekend.

WK 6 College 2-2 -.24
YTD 13-11 -1.18
Parlays 0-3 -1.5

[Pivotpoint]

College Football Wk #7

105 Washington St +17

143 West Virginia -6

154 Miss St + 2 1/2

159 Alabama - 8 1/2

187 Mississippi + 2 1/2

Wanted to post these up. Will try and follow up with a brief write-up on why I made each selection.

Good Luck

[Urbanwildlife]

Best of luck to you amigo!

[Pivotpoint]

And to you as well.

[Urbanwildlife]

That is my girl!

[Pivotpoint]

Adding,

172 Missouri + 3 -113

I had this game circled prior to Gurley suspension.

Last game, Tigers avenged only loss of last year to Gamecocks. Held SC to season low 338 yards.

Tigers have a solid D and two great Defensive ends in Ray + Golden with 13 sacks.

Mizzu coming off a bye and QB Matty Mauk has 14 TD passes.

Dogs dinged up at RB even before Gurley suspension. That Georgia secondary is also suffering and weak. I was tempted to take Mizzu @ home on the ML @ +130. Playing it safe with points. Feel Mauk will have a good day against Georgia secondary. Not sure you can trust that Bulldog D.

Rested home dog looks solid here against a team minus key weapons.

gl

[shopbar picks]

Like this play alot. And still riding Colo. St. Tell they prove me wrong. Would appreciate your take again

[Pivotpoint]

I like Colorado St and QB Grayson, but when I dug deeper, started to hesitate.

Nevada is strong at home. Wolfpack QB Cody Fajardo can hurt CSU in the air or with his legs. He could have a big game against a suspect CSU secondary that I have ranked at #93.

Nevada Defense also ranked weak, but when you look closer at the games, they held the high scoring Washington State pass attack to 13 points and played Zona tough on the road, losing by TD.

You could argue that CSU has a much higher ranked Offense. They have also owned Nevada of late, but in the same breath, the home team has beenn strong in this series.

I try to refrain from laying points on the road in conference games unless I see some real strong edges in the game. To tough to call for me. Gl with your pick.

[ZIPPER HEAD]

Gl today brother

[shopbar picks]

Thanks I have been kind of hem hawing on this play. Appreciate the time and input

[Pivotpoint]

College Football Wk #7

105 Washington St +17 Push

143 West Virginia -6 loss

154 Miss St + 2 1/2 win

159 Alabama - 8 1/2 loss

187 Mississippi + 2 1/2 win

172 Mizzu + 3 (-113) loss


WK #7 Grades 2-3-1

NCAAF YTD

15-14-1 -2.39

summary, damn mediocre results for the time I spend on this. Juice of 8% (-1.08) slowly adding up.

Been doing this long enough to know that gambling is a game of streaks. Trying to stay patient, stick to money management and grind away. One big weekend away from turning the corner.

Still looking at games for this weekend. Interested in #311 Temple +8, #335 W.Mich +2, #386 Colo St -5 1/2,#388 Miss -16, #390 Texas -12 1/2. #391 Mizzu +6 , Tigers tough to back off horrible performance last week, but Gators O giving points? Waiting for the Notre Dame / FSU line to re-post. Loved Notre Dame + 11 1/2 before they pulled it down. Winston will play and hoping line is close to original opening #.

Miss schools have saved my ass most of the year. Bama was always golden, but they are a money burner this year. That Offense seems off for Tide. I've always disliked Kiffin and blame some of the stupid play calling on that penetrate. I'd like to back Vtech on Thursday, but Hokie QB is so unreliable with 11 picks so far. You never know who's going to show up when it comes to Pitt or Vtech. Both teams play tough defense.

[tennesseety]

Tennessee is one of my favorite teams, because I have had the opportunity to party at the stadium on 3 occasions, and it was sooooooooooo much fun!

Love it! Let me know when you're down this way again. I will let you buy me a beer (haha)!

[Urbanwildlife]

Would be happy and honored to amigo!