You are hitting at nearly a 54% clip, yet you are down over 5 units. You give away way too much money via the vig. Examples: Arizona State -13 1/2 -120. BYU +3 1/2. -120. Alabama -13 1/2 -130. That is way too much vig. If you have to give that much vig, you should NOT be wagering on the game to begin with. The books LOVE people who shell out 10% per 1/2 point. It is a losers play. If it were not profitable for the books, they would NOT allow the wager.
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#224
Originally posted by BigdaddyQH
You are hitting at nearly a 54% clip, yet you are down over 5 units. You give away way too much money via the vig. Examples: Arizona State -13 1/2 -120. BYU +3 1/2. -120. Alabama -13 1/2 -130. That is way too much vig. If you have to give that much vig, you should NOT be wagering on the game to begin with. The books LOVE people who shell out 10% per 1/2 point. It is a losers play. If it were not profitable for the books, they would NOT allow the wager.
i have not bought points at all this season, so the 54% and being down 5u have nothing to do with each other. my larger 5-10u plays were under 50% and thats why im at -5u heading into the bowls.
i am only buying points in certain spots here in the bowl games since i am going so heavy on these games. ive gotten a 3rd book who now allows me to buy points. my other 2 locals dont offer this, but its nice to have for these larger plays in football where key #'s like 3, 7, 10 etc are so important.
but i agree with you, and never buy points during the regular season. all my plays are typically at -110.
stop paying attention to win/loss %'s....the sooner you realize this has little to do with long term profits, the better off you'll be. i didnt even realize i was 54% until you just told me.
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#225
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Monday 12.30
National University Holiday Bowl: (15u) Arizona St -13.5/-120 (B2/B5/B9)
(5u) Over Arizona St/Texas Tech 69.5 (B10)
Music City Bowl:
(5u) Ole Miss -150 (B1)
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
added Arizona St...
(10u) Texas +14.5/-120 (B5/B9)
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#226
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Tuesday 12.24
Sheraton Hawaii Bowl:
(10u) Oregon St -150 (B5, B6)
(2u) Over Oregon St/Boise St 64.5
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#227
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Friday 12.27
Fight Hunger Bowl:
(10u) BYU +3.5/-120 (B5/B6)
Military Bowl:
(3u) Over Marshall/Maryland 61
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#228
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Tuesday 12.31
AdvoCare V100 Bowl:
(5u) Arizona -7 (B5)
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Sun Bowl:
(2u) UCLA -7
(2u) Over Arizona/BC 57
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#229
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Outback Bowl:
(5u) Georgia -6.5/-120 (B1)
-Typo here as i obviously meant LSU
-Baylor is a B7
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#230
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Saturday 12.21
Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl:
(3u) Over USC/Fresno St 62
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Gildan New Mexico Bowl:
(5u) Colorado St +4.5 (B9)
New Orleans Bowl:
(2u) Tulane -1.5
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#231
Friday 1.3
AT&T Cotton Bowl:
(5u) Missouri -115 (B1/B2)
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#232
Saturday 1.4
BBVA Compass Bowl:
(10u) Vanderbilt -140 (B1,B9)
Comment
Simon Gruber
SBR MVP
05-02-13
2342
#233
Good Luck TK. Will be following your thread throughout the bowl season and tailing some. You usually end up ahead.
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#234
Originally posted by Simon Gruber
Good Luck TK. Will be following your thread throughout the bowl season and tailing some. You usually end up ahead.
Thx Simon....fyi will also be on fresno for 10u today (waiting for line to rise) and likely buffalo for 2u. GL bud...
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#235
Las Vegas Bowl:
(10u) Fresno St +5 (B5,B6)
Idaho Potato Bowl:
(2u) Buffalo -110
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#236
guess all the SD St knew what they were doing. i got excited when i saw the flipped favorite angle come into play. on to the New Orleans Bowl
I was thinking the same thing as they were doing it. "Tulane has a good kicker" would have sufficed just fine. Only these broke di$k ratchet announcers can jinx one of the best kickers in the country on a fairly routine fg. Shitty break, especially for me after losing teaser earlier with wazzu at a pk. Screw the NBA, Bowl season is where amazing happens...
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#240
Originally posted by Tommy Karate
Monday 12.23
Beef O' Brady's Bowl:
(3u) Over E. Carolina/Ohio 61.5
(2u) Over E. Carolina 61.5 (5u total)
(2u) Ohio +14.5
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#241
that was quite amazing...
and the best is ohio is running the clock out.
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#242
20-17 Ohio with 9 minutes left. +14.5? pff....no problem:
i guess this was my give back from the N. Illinois and Over miracle win i had on 11/14 vs Ball St. Such a joke....
Comment
BigdaddyQH
SBR Posting Legend
07-13-09
19530
#243
I really enjoy reading your posts, but you know as well as I do that you will never win if you play every game, no matter what type of unit strategy you use. Why would you take Fresno State at such a big play when everyone knew that if USC showed up to play, Fresno State had no chance at all? Just wondering.
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#244
removing bs
Comment
Tommy Karate
SBR Posting Legend
10-12-13
13445
#245
why would they have 1 game this afternoon and nothing tonight? horrible scheduling during the most wonderful time of the year.