The more I analyzed this game the madder I became, because I see all the tell-tale signs of poor coaching, flaky defensive efforts, inconsistent offensive execution, etc. I hate these kinds of games because it is hard to tell which team will show up. I hate the ACC in general because it is basically a BCS version of the MAC conference. The teams are flaky, flukey, punky head cases who would get pulverized in the SEC or Big 10.
Nontheless, here we go. Why do I like Virginia at +3.5? Few reasons. They have a more consistent defense than UNC. They can defend the pass and the run very well and they do one or the other every game, but have a hard time doing both in the same game (see, that's the bullshit an ACC team throws at you). Still, what I can tell you for sure is that either UNC's passing game (probably) or rushing game (maybe) is going to take a huge step backward tonight in Charlottesville. Once UNC becomes one-dimensional (as they will), UVA will simply execute behind timely defense and the QB rotation of Rocco and Sims. Neither of these QBs are great for a whole game, but they are dynamic when working together.
One of UVA's problems all year is punching the ball in for a TD due to a lack of rushing attack. Once they get in the red zone they bog down, even though they almost always out-gain their opponents in total yards. Tonight I do not think that will be a problem because UNC has been god-awful against the run in their ROAD games and in general. Kevin Parks will exceed 120 yards rushing tonight. Mark that and quote me later. UNC allowed DUKE (DUKE!) to rush for 234 yards (Blue devils previously avg'd less than 100). Why did that happen? I'll tell you why. I watched the whole damn game. UNC is a punk team led by a punk coach who is an offensive genius but who gives two shits about the defense. Once they meet resistance on the road (0-4 ATS) they fold like flowers. UNC insn't playing for a bowl, so we'll see how much they give a shit tonight on a short week following a gut-punch at the hands of Tech.
UVA is playing for a bowl and they need two more wins to get there. They have VaTech next week (winnable this year) and they have already said that they are treating November like a four-game playoff to get to a bowl. Although UVA is 0-5 ATS at home, some of those losses were flukey. I'm not going to go through them, but UVA actually should already have 6 wins.
This game should be close, but UVA's motivation and recent emergence of QB Rocco (300 yards passing last week) should get them the cover.
Clear weather. No significant injuries for UVA.
Predicted Score:
UNC 31
UVA 30
UVA +3.5
Nontheless, here we go. Why do I like Virginia at +3.5? Few reasons. They have a more consistent defense than UNC. They can defend the pass and the run very well and they do one or the other every game, but have a hard time doing both in the same game (see, that's the bullshit an ACC team throws at you). Still, what I can tell you for sure is that either UNC's passing game (probably) or rushing game (maybe) is going to take a huge step backward tonight in Charlottesville. Once UNC becomes one-dimensional (as they will), UVA will simply execute behind timely defense and the QB rotation of Rocco and Sims. Neither of these QBs are great for a whole game, but they are dynamic when working together.
One of UVA's problems all year is punching the ball in for a TD due to a lack of rushing attack. Once they get in the red zone they bog down, even though they almost always out-gain their opponents in total yards. Tonight I do not think that will be a problem because UNC has been god-awful against the run in their ROAD games and in general. Kevin Parks will exceed 120 yards rushing tonight. Mark that and quote me later. UNC allowed DUKE (DUKE!) to rush for 234 yards (Blue devils previously avg'd less than 100). Why did that happen? I'll tell you why. I watched the whole damn game. UNC is a punk team led by a punk coach who is an offensive genius but who gives two shits about the defense. Once they meet resistance on the road (0-4 ATS) they fold like flowers. UNC insn't playing for a bowl, so we'll see how much they give a shit tonight on a short week following a gut-punch at the hands of Tech.
UVA is playing for a bowl and they need two more wins to get there. They have VaTech next week (winnable this year) and they have already said that they are treating November like a four-game playoff to get to a bowl. Although UVA is 0-5 ATS at home, some of those losses were flukey. I'm not going to go through them, but UVA actually should already have 6 wins.
This game should be close, but UVA's motivation and recent emergence of QB Rocco (300 yards passing last week) should get them the cover.
Clear weather. No significant injuries for UVA.
Predicted Score:
UNC 31
UVA 30
UVA +3.5
