snutz69,
got it...GL this week...
got it...GL this week...
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Apparently PAGS,you're getting a lot of votes for the best capper on the forum.Impressive!I am a newbie to the forum and going to roll with NCst+11 and Arizona.GL pagsComment -
Pags,
Got it... Good Luck to you this week.Comment -
GL this week pags, on NC State with you (putting out the vid in a few)... looking forward to your write-ups. I liked Oregon State a bit but not enough to make a top pick... can't wait to see your reasoning on Arizona. They haven't looked sharp of late.
GL!Comment -
You're right vegas dave.Zona hasn't looked very good of late but I think this is a classic run into a buzzsaw game for Orest.Zona is dangerous in the desert!Comment -
dangerousone,
GL to you as well this week...
vegasdave,
thanks for your thoughts...I'll be sure to check out your thread...I'll have my thoughts on the game up in my write-up tomorrow evening...regarding trends, I don't believe I've ever said I don't believe in trends, I just have stated that I factor will never weight a trend more than 15% of the overall analysis of a game, but usually less than that...GL this week...
guru-t,
thank you very much, I appreciate you saying that...regarding the Oregon St. vs. Arizona game, yes, in a nutshell that's exactly what I think...I'll further elaborate tomorrow...BOL to you this week...Comment -
Pags, nice looking card...
I like WF got it at -1...they have covered 4 straight in this series, until LY 35-28 loss at Chestnut Hill. I think WF and QB Skinner have had this game circled especially after Skinner threw 3 ints in that game LY, Skinner wants some redemption!
also on Ole Miss and Mich St...looking at zona...Beavers in the desert dont go.
Good luck this week
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masr,
thanks for your thoughts on the games...glad we will be on some of them together...GL to you this week as well...Comment -
Arizona is a night game...
Arizona at night is a tough place to play. Plus Oregon ST's passing game hasn't done much.Last edited by Crispybear; 11-20-08, 01:18 AM.Comment -
On 3 of your plays this week. GL and let's continue to
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Nice pic's pags. love the NCState pick...Comment -
crispybear,
I don't disagree with that analysis at all...
cougar bait,
thank you...glad to hear we will be on some games together...GL to you as well...
lego21,
thank you...glad to hear you agree with the NCSU pick...BOL to you this week as well...
bostonbasher,
yes they were...that was the one and only time I'll be playing them this year...Comment -
Love the Ole Miss play.
I was on the fence with Oregon St. I took your Arizona pick and crossed it off my list. I think you might have kept me off a loser with that one.
Good luckComment -
boy jeenyus,
appreciate your feedback and well wishes...glad we will be on one play together...GL to you as well...Comment -
Pags - I originally took a small bet on UNC to beat NC State this week. But the more I read about this game (including your recommendation for NC State after I already took the small bet on UNC), it appears that NC State is truly the better pick. So I will probably put down a larger position on the NC State game. My question to you is this ... what are you anticipating for a final score? Are you thinking UNC wins the game but fails to cover?Comment -
dana,
my recommendation is to trust your first instinct...have no clue on the score or who wins (although the chances are obviously more like that North Carolina will win being that they are the double digit favorite)...wish I had better advice for you on the matter...GL with what you decide...Comment -
Pags,
Any lean on the Clemson - Virginia game this week. Trying to find a 5th game on my card and think if they can get their running game clicking here they have a shot. They're my home team and usually F'me when I bet um, so superstition almost tells me not to. Any thoughts?Comment -
snutz69,
had the slightest of leans to UVA at +3.5 or more, but the line quickly went down...also I have watched Clemson play the last month and they are really playing a lot better...not really interested in getting in their way right now...GL with what you decide...Comment -
Pags, looking forward to seeing your Ole Miss write up. Hotty Toddy and Geaux to Hell LSU!Comment -
Pags, whenever I'm in the hole I always know I can check your thread for some winners. I learned early in the season not to go against you. Really looking forward to the NC St. game.Comment -
alry45,
glad you are looking forward to my write-up on that one, you are quite a character...just now starting with my write-ups, will have them up in a couple of hours...
mickchunky,
thanks for stopping by and I appreciate the kind words...GL this week...Comment -
Ole Miss +5.5
Ole Miss has quietly put together a very impressive season so far under Head Coach Houston Nutt. I’ve mentioned before how impressed I am with how quickly he’s taken his program to the next level. They aren’t yet SEC heavyweights, but they are definitely a team week-in and week-out that can compete with any team in the conference. Their win at Florida was no fluke; this team has talent and is coached extremely well. I also feel like this is a good spot for them as they had the week before last off, and then last week they demolished Louisiana-Monroe. Traditionally they play LSU very tough and I can see another tight game between these two teams again on Saturday. Ole Miss QB Jevon Snead (53.5% comp., 17 TD/ 11 INT) leads the offensive attack. Snead has continued to improve upon his decision making and accuracy as the season has gone on, and is also very mobile. Ole Miss has four talented ball carriers to carry the running game workload, headlined by highly-touted Cordera Eason (5.0 ypc., 3 TD) and all-around performer Dexter McCluster (6.3 ypc., 4 TD, 34 rec., 1 TD). Brandon Bolden (5.0 ypc., 2 TD) adds depth and Enrique Davis (3.8 ypc., 3 TD) excels in short yardage situations. In addition to McCluster, Ole Miss has two other very talented pass catchers in Shay Hodge (31 rec., 7 TD) and Mike Wallace (26 rec., 2 TD). Hodge sat out last week’s game resting a sore ankle and should be good to go this week. He makes big catches to keep drives alive and also gets open around the goal line. Wallace, who averages almost twenty yards per catch, helps stretch the defense and has started to find the end zone recently. Ole Miss’s balance on offense should pose some problems for an LSU defense that is having trouble putting pressure on the quarterback and also has recently had issues stopping the run. Understand that there is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the football with LSU, but I’m not seeing this unit play with the same energy level they did at the beginning of the season. A lot of this may be due to the entire team being disappointed about the season they have had so far. After LSU lost to Alabama their hopes were crushed of obtaining any outstanding post season accomplishments and it showed in their play last week against Troy. Defensively, Ole Miss has a strong defensive line which should help them in attempting to contain talented LSU running backs Charles Scott and Keiland Williams. The Ole Miss secondary will also have their hands full with speedy wipeouts Brandon LaFell and Demetrius Byrd. Tight end Richard Dickson is also a a good player. The key, though, is that LSU QB Jarrett Lee is really struggling right now. Despite all of the talent they have on offense, Lee’s lack of confidence is more evident than ever and young QB Jordan Jefferson isn’t ready yet to take pver the reigns of the offense. Houston Nutt has his team playing well at the right time, and at time it appears to me that Les Miles is at a loss on what to do with this team right now. Ole Miss should give LSU all they can handle in a game being played during the day at Tiger Stadium. I’ll take Ole Miss and the points here.
Wake Forest -1.5
There is no doubt that Boston College comes into this game having played some good football the previous two weeks. As you’ve heard me say before, though, it’s very hard for a team to get up for a game three straight weeks and not experience some sort of letdown. Wake Forest is a team that most have given up on, yet just last week they were in first place in their division. Wake is a team that has struggled this year on the road, but still plays extremely well at home. This is a good spot for them as they catch B.C. off two emotional victories against Notre Dame and then Florida State. Riley Skinner (63.8% comp., 11 TD/ 5 INT) is the kind of quarterback you want to have on your side if you are going to go against a defense like Boston College’s. The Boston College defense doesn’t give up a lot of big plays, but if you are patient you can move the ball down the field in a methodical fashion. This is exactly what the Wake Forest game plan will be, as Skinner is one of the more reliable quarterbacks in the conference, having thrown only one interception in his last six games. The Wake offensive line is also starting to play a lot better this past month, which is giving Skinner more time to throw and is opening up bigger holes for the running game. Freshman Brandon Pendergrass (3.3 ypc., 4 TD) has really started to run well the past month, averaging over four yards per carry in his last four games. He will assume the majority of the workload running the ball, although it appears that All-ACC RB Josh Adams (3.6 ypc., 2 TD) will play this week, as he’s not currently listed on the Wake Forest injury report. D.J. Boldin (63 rec., 3 TD) is Wake’s main receiving threat, and recently Marshall Williams (23 rec. 2 TD) has stepped up as a second viable receiving option. TE Ben Wooster (22 rec., 2 TD) will need regain the form he displayed earlier in the year to help take some of the heat of the running game. Defensively, Wake Forest is a very sound football team and should match up well this week with Boston College’s offense. Boston College runs an offense based around the short passing game and the zone read running attack. Chris Crane did perform well last week and is somewhat mobile, but he’s still prone to poor decision making and can struggle at times with his accuracy. Wake will need to attempt to contain Boston College’s talented two young running backs, Montel Harris and Josh Hayden. If they can do so, it should put some pressure on Crane and the passing game. Brandon Robinson and Rich Gunnell are skilled pass catchers but aren’t going to beat you routinely with the big play, in fact the Wake Forest secondary excels in keeping plays in front of them. I also like the coaching match up in this game as I feel there is an edge with Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe over Boston College’s Jeff Jagodzinski in what could end up a battle decided in the fourth quarter. I’ll lay the points with Wake Forest in this one.
N.C. State +11.5
Make sure not to tell too many people, but this N.C. State team is playing some pretty inspired football of late and I don’t see much changing this week. Tom O’Brien has done a great coaching job keeping this team’s head up early in the season as they battled many injuries and much adversity. His team’s mental toughness has allowed them to peak at the right time of the season and they believe they belong on the field with any team they play. They will face a tough opponent this week in North Carolina, who is coached very well by Butch Davis. I feel they are up for the task again, though. NCSU will need another solid performance from QB Russell Wilson (55.2% comp., 12 TD/ 1 INT). Wilson is continuing to show excellent pocket prescience, great accuracy, as well as mobility that keeps defensive coordinators up at night. RB’s Andre Brown (4.2 ypc., 4 TD) and Jamalle Eugene (5.1 ypc.) both played well last week and have been giving NCSU the balance on offense needed to keep opposing defenses honest. They both are running hard and also do a great job catching the ball out of the backfield. Wilson often checks down to them when his receivers are covered. WR Owen Spencer (24 rec., 2 TD) is doing a great job getting open, but he will need to do a better job catching the football this week than he did last week. WR Jarvis Williams (16 rec., 4 TD) and TE George Bryan (17 rec., 3 TD) have played well the second half of the season and will need to continue that come Saturday. I’ve been extremely impressed with the play of NCSU’s defense the past two weeks, and as I mentioned last week a lot of that is due to LB Nate Irving finally being healthy. Last week, though, I saw some very athletic defensive linemen make plays on third and short and their young secondary is continuing to improve. Their defense will need to be focused come Saturday because Butch Davis usually devises good game plans with his offense. Fortunately for NCSU, North Carolina is faced with a bit of a quarterback dilemma as QB Cam Sexton struggled last week, but incumbent starter T.J. Yates has seen a total of one seriesof live game action in the past month and a half. I mentioned last week that the loss of WR/ KR Brandon Tate is finally catching up with the North Carolina offense and special teams and that trend should continue this week. If NCSU can limit WR Hakeem Nicks as Maryland did last week, they will make North Carolina rely on their running game which has struggled some of late. It will be a tough battle for NCSU, but I feel they can sustain enough drives on offense and limit North Carolina enough on offense to stay in this game into the fourth quarter. I’ll take NCSU and the points here.
Michigan St. +14.5
I’ve heard all year that Michigan State isn’t a great team, they have average athletes and a vanilla offense. Well you know what? This “average” team is now 9-2 and is a much more physical team on both sides of the ball than people are giving them credit for. In the two year’s under Mark Dantonio they’ve been blown out a total of one time. There’s no doubt that Penn State is an extremely talented football team and there’s no doubt that they are a team full of a lot of veteran players motivated to go to a BCS game. That being said, I don’t think Michigan State will be intimidated come Saturday and should be able to give Penn State a good game. Their game plan will be very similar to the one Iowa put together against PSU a couple of weeks ago. I talked of Michigan State’s physicality earlier and think that their D-Line should be able to put pressure on PSU QB Daryll Clark, who just hasn’t seemed to play quite as well recently as he was earlier in the season. This is possibly due to a concussion he suffered vs. Ohio State, but I’ve also noticed that the Penn State offensive line doesn’t seem to be performing as well with their pass blocking. The limited time to throw has caused Clark to throw shorter passes to his wide receiving trio of Jordan Norwood, Derrick Williams and Deon Butler. I’ve also noticed this trio is having a tendency to drop balls of late. Even if MSU can limit the Penn State passing game, they are going to have to deal with the strong PSU running game, led by Evan Royster and Stephfon Green. Fortunately for MSU, they have a fairly strong run defense and tackle well, which limits a lot of big runs. If MSU can make PSU earn it down the field, it should help shorten the game. Much has been mentioned about the struggles of MSU QB Brian Hoyer (49.1% comp., 9 TD/ 6 INT), who I feel will be one of the key players in this game, but he continually finds a way to lead his team on scoring drives. Fortunately for him and the rest of the MSU offense, he has one of the most talented running backs in the nation to hand the ball off to in Javon Ringer (4.4 ypc., 20 TD). Ringer is the leader of their offense and makes all the players in the huddle around him better. He is also a threat to catch the ball out of the backfield. WR Mark Dell (27 rec., 2 TD) got some much needed rest during MSU’s bye week, as did TE Charlie Gnatt (17 rec., 4 TD). WR’s Blair White (31 rec., 1 TD) and B.J. Cunningham (30 rec.) will need to play well to help the MSU offense sustain drives. If MSU can do so, and play their usual solid defense, they should be able to give PSU a very good game. I’ll take MSU and the points and hold onto my seat in this one.
Arizona -3
I’m afraid everyone is getting a little ahead of themselves this week, with all of the talk about Oregon State heading to the Rose Bowl already. Oregon State is a good team who has had a good season so far, but they still have two tough games on their schedule. The one this Saturday in Tucson is going to be an extremely difficult game for them to come out of victorious as they play a veteran Arizona team who usually plays well at home in November. Anytime you see an unranked home team favored over a ranked road team it should make you think twice, which is what you have in this game. As I’ve stated before, I’m not a big trend guy, but with Georgia Tech covering tonight unranked home favorites against ranked road opponents are now 6-1 on the season. I like this game not because of this trend, but because I think these are two very similar football teams, and Arizona is traditionally a strong home team while Oregon State traditionally struggles on the road OSU is is 2-3 so far this year on the road with wins at UCLA and at Washington. Take Oregon State away from Reser Stadium and they are merely mortal. I was particularly impressed with the fight Arizona showed in the second half of their game last week from Oregon, rallying from almost thirty points down. As I mentioned before, they are a team full of upperclassmen and have a great deal of experience. They are led by senior QB Willie Tuitiama (63.6% comp., 18 TD/ 7 INT) who has three years of starting experience under his belt. Tuitama has two extremely talented running backs to hand the ball to in Nic Grigsby (5.7 ypc., 11 TD) and Keola Antolin (4.8 ypc., 9 TD), who will put a lot of pressure on the young Oregon State front seven. This should help open up the Arizona passing game that has a multitude of playmaking pass catchers. TE Rob Gronkowski (34 rec., 8 TD), fresh off being snubbed from being a Mackey Award Finalist, will look to prove a point this weekend to the rest of the country. WR/KR Mike Thomas (55 rec., 4 TD, 6.6 ypc., 1 TD) is a dynamic receiver and runner who excels in the punt return game. WR’s Terrell Turner (36 rec., 1 TD) and Delashaun Dean (37 rec., 2 TD) are impossible match ups for nickel and dime backs. Then throw in Rob’s little brother, H-Back Chris Gronkowski (6 rec., 2 TD) and you have one of the most difficult offenses in the Pac 10 to try and defend. Oregon State is a well coached football team and I expect them to have a good defensive game plan on Saturday, but eventually the Arizona offense is going to wear down the Oregon State defense in the heat on Saturday night. Oregon State should have some success on offense with freshman sensation Jacquizz Rodgers, who is the top freshman running back in the country. WR’s Sammy Stroughter and James Rodgers are tough players to defend, as is possession receiver Shane Morales. I’m just not sure OSU QB Lyle Moevao will be able to make enough plays through the air to keep pace with Tuitiama and crew. Some may see it as an upset if Arizona wins, but to me it will be a typical Pac 10 game between to similar opponents where the home team emerges with the victory and the cover. I’ll take my chances laying the field goal with Arizona here.Last edited by pags11; 11-21-08, 02:47 AM.Comment -
Best writeups of the year pags.
Could not agree with you more on your assessments of these games.
Best of luck this coming ssturday.Comment -
Great write up on the Ole Miss game Pags, you really hit the nail on the head.Comment -
clowncar,
thanks brother very much for saying so as I respect your opinion tremendously...BOL to your this week my friend...
alry45,
appreciate it bud...means a lot coming from an Ole Miss expert such as yourself...GL this week...Comment -
hey pags how low would you take the ole miss game? I'm showin -3.5 now. Great write up as always pags! The work you do is very appreciated.Comment -
rossta4i,
thank you...I'd prefer you get four or more with Ole Miss, but I wouldn't call you crazy for making the play at the current number...GL with what you decide...Comment -
Great write-ups Pags. For some reason I'm no longer worried about my Arizona selection! GL and have a great week!
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pags
ole miss is at 3.5 wakes at 2 and nc states down to 10.5
do you still like them?Comment -
Thanks pags for the wisdom. As I was up last night sifting the words and comments of others, seeing your write-ups is easy reading. I applaud the work you do and the enegry you inspire for others to relish. Good Luck to you( us too)!!Comment -
Way to put that work in Pags!!Very nice write up.Like I said.I'm A newbie to the forum,but not to capping and It's easy to see why that you're voted best capper on the forum.Nice job and Gluck to all this weekend!!!!!!!Last edited by guru-t; 11-21-08, 10:18 AM.Comment -
Friday morning seminar is over and what have I learned?
Well, I was about to tell you that you were all wrong on your Wake pick. Crane has settled down to become a reliable QB, and the BC defense is eally making plays to help win games.
AllI can see to Wake's advantage is in the kicking game, and Swank is still ?????? BUT, as you point out, can BC maintain the same level of performance in a third straight game? Good question that I hadn't thought of. I agree we should be still watching in the 4th quarter, and with justa point or two involved, we will be watching to see who wins the game.
I'll come aboard. Incidentally, if BC comes out a winner , it eliminates FSU's chances for the Atlantic Division championship. Might be worth bearing in mind because Maryland-FSU starts after BC-Wake is over.
No problem with MSU - a no-brainer for a dog lover like me.
Ditto on NC St.
I have to go along with you on Ole Miss; I just have that sinking feeling that LSU turns things around or/and lucks out somehow. I'll have those 3 3:30 picks ( my time zone ) on my 3 TVs side by side.
Left on my own, I would probably bet on OSU, but being 3000 miles away, I really don't know what's going on there.
So, let's go 5 for 5, pgs GL
taurusComment -
well pags looks like your terps where a success last week, i fortunatly held fast and did not make a play in this one!! how do you see your terp against a fsu a team that stiill hasn't found its identity?Comment
