Pags' Plays 11/15

SportNut · 11-09-08, 08:10 PM

Thanks Pags for the Florida St. Iowa and Cincy plays. The profits were beautiful.

MSUSpartan32 · 11-09-08, 08:52 PM

Pags, can't wait for the picks this week. Sorry if this has been asked before, new to the site, this year, you play bowl games as well?

bypp · 11-09-08, 09:34 PM

Pags,
New to the forums but I've been betting college and nfl all season. Your picks this past week were awesome. Everyone thought I was crazy when I bet Iowa and Cincy but it paid off huge. Thank you so much for your insight. Looking forward to this weeks plays!

Crispybear · 11-09-08, 10:01 PM

great pics!

Newbie here, but I really enjoy your writeups and analysis, Pags.

Thanks for the great weekend. I rode you on Neb, Iowa, NC ST & FSU (OK St was the only one that fell short.)

Cougar Bait · 11-09-08, 10:30 PM

Yeah, I got shit all week for betting Iowa. And that's one that I was on anyway, but since you listed it as a play I put double $ on it and it paid off. Let's hit em again this week. I'll take a 6-2 week every week!

pags11 · 11-09-08, 10:32 PM

PLAY NUMBER ONE:

Air Force +4 (+100) for 1.5 units

pags11 · 11-09-08, 10:34 PM

PLAY NUMBER TWO:

Maryland +2.5 (+101) for 1.5 units

Dbldown11 · 11-09-08, 10:35 PM

so far so good haha had both of these plays on the leans i posted earlier

pags11 · 11-09-08, 10:39 PM

sportsnut,

no problem at all...glad you did well last week...

msuspartan,

yes, I do play bowl games, but I don't play them for much and don't post them...bowl games are very tough to cap with all of the coaching changes and time off...I've learned over the years to tread lightly with them...

bypp,

no problem...good to hear you did well last week...

crispybear,

glad to hear you enjoyed last week's write-ups...no problem at all...glad you had a good week last week...

cougar bait,

good job sticking to your guns...glad to hear you had a good week...

pags11 · 11-09-08, 10:40 PM

dbldown,

good to hear you are leaning that way on both those games...BOL to you this week...

tobycsh39 · 11-09-08, 11:50 PM

Hey brother, i love 5-2 weeks. Kill them again this week. As always best of luck and I will be with you on many. Thank God I talked myself out of that Penn St pick because my book had 9.5 points, had to take Iowa. good luck man

CaptainFurFace · 11-09-08, 11:55 PM

Pags --

First off, congrats on a great season. I have learned so much from watching cappers this year and your discipline is amazing. Smart bettors have great discipline.

My question is, do you slowly decrease the units you play as the season wears on? I know the lines get sharper and games tougher to call, so it's a way of preserving your winnings? Just curious.

Thanks!

CFF

tobycsh39 · 11-09-08, 11:56 PM

Hey man wondering if you could help me out with some early thoughts. I hate giving up points on the road this late in the season but tell me what you think about these.
Texas -13 @ Kansas: Kansas is really in a rut right now
Ohio St -9.5 @ Illinois: Ohio St is finally clicking on offense and Illinois has dropped off big imo.
San Jose @ Nevada -14.5: San jose has dropped off bad since they lost to Boise and Nevada is putting up big numbers on offense right now.
Troy +20 @ LSU: i seem to find it difficult for LSU to cover big lines with their poor QB play.

If you have time to give me some advice on this, much appreciated, thanks man!

pags11 · 11-10-08, 12:07 AM

tobycsh39,

thanks very much brother...I no opinion on those four games...my only advice is that I think OSU is rolling right now, although I wouldn't play on them, just know that I wouldn't play against them...GL this week...

captainfurface,

thank you very much...I appreciate that you recognize my discipline, have just learned a lot over the years and feel that money management is just as important as good handicapping...yes, that's exactly why I decrease my unit size as the season goes on (after slowly increasing my unit size from the beginning of the season to the middle of the season)...BOL to you this week...

pags11 · 11-10-08, 12:08 AM

PLAY NUMBER THREE:

N.C. State +4 (+101) for 1.5 units

cashflow50 · 11-10-08, 12:38 AM

nice run bro! its november....its time for the big boys!! gl again this week. will chime in now and then to see who ya on and if we match. later...

WSU_Tbone · 11-10-08, 01:00 AM

Great job again last week PAGS....My cougs finally covered

lol...They are 36 point dogs again this week at ASU...not sure if im going to continue fading...we shall see...

Any thoughts on Navy +4 ?

Wassymac · 11-10-08, 01:07 AM

Another stellar season...surprise surprise

Thank you for doing what you do Pags. I haven't been around as much as usual but I've stopped by and picked up a few units here and there off of ya.

Thanks again and good luck the rest of the way.

pags11 · 11-10-08, 01:19 AM

cashflow50,

appreciate it bud...yeah, definitely do so...GL this week...

WSU_tbone,

thank you...yeah saw Washington St. finally got it done...yeah, I'll have some thoughts on that game but I'm currently seeing 3 at most places...BOL to you this week...

wassymac,

thanks very much...I appreciate your support over the years...glad we have been able to cash in on a few together...GL this week...

smitch124 · 11-10-08, 01:32 AM

Pags any reason you are backing off on units??

laxdjock · 11-10-08, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by smitch124

Pags any reason you are backing off on units??

I think he answered this last week or the week before, so if you poke around the last 2 weeks, you should find the answer.

pags11 · 11-10-08, 01:55 AM

smitch124,

yeah it's been my experience in betting the last 24 seasons of college football that lines get tighter this time of year and it's best to secure profits and tread lightly in by lowering my unit size and also my number of games...

laxdjock,

thanks for your help...

smitch124 · 11-10-08, 01:56 AM

lol thanks pags, you saved me from finding your answer as a needle in the haystack of your threads!!

SportNut · 11-10-08, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by pags11

smitch124,

yeah it's been my experience in betting the last 24 seasons of college football that lines get tighter this time of year and it's best to secure profits and tread lightly in by lowering my unit size and also my number of games...

laxdjock,

thanks for your help...

pags11 · 11-10-08, 02:00 AM

smitch124,

no problem at all...GL this week...

sportsnut,

glad to hear you agree...

pags11 · 11-10-08, 02:09 AM

PLAY NUMBER FOUR:

Navy +3 (+101) for 1.5 units

Dana4U · 11-10-08, 07:49 AM

Pags - all of your choices so far are underdogs. What's your thoughts on taking some these on the ML?

wal66 · 11-10-08, 10:26 AM

Originally posted by pags11

PLAY NUMBER ONE:

Air Force +4 (+100) for 1.5 units

I like this one alot Pags. I already had it circled but am holding off to track line movement. Fully expect to see some reverse movement in this game. According to my program Air Foce should have been a slight favorite.

wal66 · 11-10-08, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by pags11

PLAY NUMBER FOUR:

Navy +3 (+101) for 1.5 units

This one too. Same as Air Force. Hmmmmmmmmmm wonder if we are using the same source? Have Navy as a 4.5 point favorite in my model.

1flgator · 11-10-08, 11:24 AM

i'll echo the accolades, and enjoyed the useful insight on fsu, went with okie state, i felt they could get it done as well, oh well next time.. made up for with ohio st and bama and a sweet 3 game parley!!! thanks

1flgator · 11-10-08, 11:27 AM

who do you like in the ball state game?

1flgator · 11-10-08, 11:42 AM

pags your picking maryland +2.5? butch davis has had
n. carolina playing strong all year,even with injuries to key players, starting qb (broke ankle) starting wr and they still manage to win and cover against good competition at home and on the road. check out saturdays cover against ga tech. the qb should be coming back soon.
just an opion but worth looking at.

etothep · 11-10-08, 12:19 PM

For anyone tailing Pags, you can probably wait out MD for a better # than 2.5, that one should definitely get over 3

pags11 · 11-10-08, 04:12 PM

PLAY NUMBER FIVE:

Rutgers +7.5 (-102) for 1.5 units