Big play on lyoto

**Mercersux** · 08-03-12, 12:31 AM

Originally posted by socrates01

IMO, only way Bader beats Machida is with a highly unlikely overhand right. Machida should pick him apart standing up and has excellent take down defense, so I don't see this going to the floor for very long. Machida gets the W here and a rematch with Jones. He had a great first round against Jones the last time out and should make it a lot more competitive this time (Jones still wins though IMO). Anyway, BIG Play on Machida...this play will probably be over 400 come fight time. Play at your own risk, good luck boys

Internet

Money Line
Ticket # ******

8/4/12 5:55 PM

MMA /Other Sports
(Ryan Bader vrs Lyoto Machida)

[#24006] Lyoto Machida -330

3,300/1,000

8/2/12
8:12 PM

Damn ballsy play. I see @ least one of the dogs in the main/co-main pulling the upset so for your sake, hope it ain't Bader. GL bro.

**socrates01** · 08-03-12, 12:42 AM

Thanks man, of course anything can happen but I just don't see Lyoto losing to this cat. He's far more experienced and should tear him apart standing up (like highlight reel type shit). Bader will shoot, but I see Machida stuffing him or getting back to his feet pretty quickly. If anything, I can see Shogun getting KO'd on his feet for the upset.

**Mercersux** · 08-03-12, 12:55 AM

Originally posted by socrates01

Thanks man, of course anything can happen but I just don't see Lyoto losing to this cat. He's far more experienced and should tear him apart standing up (like highlight reel type shit). Bader will shoot, but I see Machida stuffing him or getting back to his feet pretty quickly. If anything, I can see Shogun getting KO'd on his feet for the upset.

Yeah i mean its blatantly obvious that Bader can't survive standing up with Machida. Bader's hands are super slow and although he may have the power to k.o Machida, getting a fist on Machida is another story. I also don't think Bader has the chin to eat shots and get on the inside to get it to the ground. Think you should be good.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 01:12 AM

I was thinking about taking a shot at Bader, but now I feel this fight will be all Machida.

**Mercersux** · 08-03-12, 01:20 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I was thinking about taking a shot at Bader, but now I feel this fight will be all Machida.

I was on the same boat. Felt Bader had a real shot, but i just can't get over his slow ass hands. I mean he k.o 'ed Brilz (whooptie doo!!!) and he had to rely on his strongest base (wrestling) to decision Rampage. Don't see how he's fast enough to cut off the ring and corner Machida to even get a takedown. Thing if he does get a grasp of Machida and doesn't finish he could be in big trouble in the scramble.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 01:35 AM

I had Bader as a lock against Brilz, and love how everyone now says it's no big deal that he beat Brilz, but before the fight, everyone on this forum was on Brilz and I was the only one taking Bader.

I thought it was a no-brainer that he would beat him dominantly, but no one here agreed with me, but it seems now everyone is over-looking the Brilz W.

**Mercersux** · 08-03-12, 01:52 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I had Bader as a lock against Brilz, and love how everyone now says it's no big deal that he beat Brilz, but before the fight, everyone on this forum was on Brilz and I was the only one taking Bader.

I thought it was a no-brainer that he would beat him dominantly, but no one here agreed with me, but it seems now everyone is over-looking the Brilz W.

Really? everyone was on Brilz. Thought that was going to be a cake walk for Bader. I overlook that match for good reason. Is Brilz even in the ufc anymore?

**DirtyX** · 08-03-12, 02:50 AM

Wow man.. I admire your courage, and guts. GL.

**Vaughany** · 08-03-12, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by gabe

I had Bader as a lock against Brilz, and love how everyone now says it's no big deal that he beat Brilz, but before the fight, everyone on this forum was on Brilz and I was the only one taking Bader.

I thought it was a no-brainer that he would beat him dominantly, but no one here agreed with me, but it seems now everyone is over-looking the Brilz W.

Bader was a -400 favourite against Brilz, Im pretty sure nobody disagreed that Bader would win but at -400 it was far to steep coming off two losses

**Vaughany** · 08-03-12, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Really? everyone was on Brilz. Thought that was going to be a cake walk for Bader. I overlook that match for good reason. Is Brilz even in the ufc anymore?

When he says everybody he means perhaps 2 dudes who saw a bit of value in Brilz at +350 and sprinkled a bit on him!

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 03:09 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Bader was a -400 favourite against Brilz, Im pretty sure nobody disagreed that Bader would win but at -400 it was far to steep coming off two losses

He opened at around -260 and was at -330 by the time my book put it up, so get your facts straight.

People here were confident that there was a lot of value in Brilz and he had a real shot to win. People literally argued with me about that fight, I believe Nunya was one of the guys on Brilz, laughing at me for liking Bader. Sprinkling a few bucks for value and thinking the dog is gonna win are 2 dif things, and people here thought Brilz would win. I remember clear as day scratching my head wondering how so many of you fools were betting on Brilz.

from my thread:

UFC 139 Matchup - Ryan Bader -330

Allow me to put a on this. Coming off two losses, there's no way he drops his third in a row to a much lesser fighter. Bader beats Brilz and sends him packing out of the organization.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

When he says everybody he means perhaps 2 dudes who saw a bit of value in Brilz at +350 and sprinkled a bit on him!

Again, get your facts straight, Brilz was in the +200s

**AdamB** · 08-03-12, 03:23 AM

I've not been here long, but is there any previous fight which wasn't picked correctly by gabe and incorrectly by absolutely everyone else on the forum? Seems to be a recurring theme.

**Vaughany** · 08-03-12, 03:24 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Again, get your facts straight, Brilz was in the +200s

http://bestfightodds.com/fighters/Ryan-Bader-987

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 03:36 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

http://bestfightodds.com/fighters/Ryan-Bader-987

Exactly what I said... the other lines where he's in the +300s, I have no idea where it's at, because the members on this forum were betting him around +245. I was late on betting him and I got him at -330. Don't pull imaginary lines out of your ass, bro. Nobody here was getting Bader at -400 nor Brilz at +350.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 03:38 AM

Originally posted by AdamB

I've not been here long, but is there any previous fight which wasn't picked correctly by gabe and incorrectly by absolutely everyone else on the forum? Seems to be a recurring theme.

It is a recurring theme. There have been too many fights where I've been the only one on the side of the winner, and it is also a recurring theme that I bring it up.

But I've only mentioned it once before within the last month, so pull that stick out of your ass.

**Vaughany** · 08-03-12, 03:51 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Exactly what I said... the other lines where he's in the +300s, I have no idea where it's at, because the members on this forum were betting him around +245. I was late on betting him and I got him at -330. Don't pull imaginary lines out of your ass, bro. Nobody here was getting Bader at -400 nor Brilz at +350.

The odds are listed right there Gabe? The best line at fight time for Bader was -385, the best line at fight time for Brilz was +348. What have you got in your weed?

Nobody was getting Bader at -400? What about Pedagogy that got him at -420? http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...l#post12419105

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 04:11 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

The odds are listed right there Gabe? The best line at fight time for Bader was -385, the best line at fight time for Brilz was +348. What have you got in your weed?

Nobody was getting Bader at -400? What about Pedagogy that got him at -420? http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...l#post12419105

So you are ignoring the line that says +245/-305?

When I bet him, he was at -330, and I was getting a worse line than the rest of you were getting online. So for me it was -330, for you it was -305. I remember Nunya liking Brilz in the +200s. Bader opened around -260 and you guys thought that was too much juice. Don't use a bullshit link with different lines on it to back up something you can't remember. Show me your ticket with Brilz at +350. You can't, because it doesn't exist.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 04:16 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

The odds are listed right there Gabe? The best line at fight time for Bader was -385, the best line at fight time for Brilz was +348. What have you got in your weed?

Nobody was getting Bader at -400? What about Pedagogy that got him at -420? http://forum.sbrforum.com/boxing-mma...l#post12419105

Ok, so he did reach that big of a fav. I had a feeling he made it past -400 by fight day. I just remember people liking Brilz at around +245 and thinking they were crazy. Nunya is the only one I remember specifically liking Brilz, but there were many others, too.

My original point was that it's weird how people expected Bader to lose to Brilz just because he was coming off 2 losses but now think he has a chance against Machida after he's coming off 2 dominant wins.

People literally argued with me that Brilz would beat Bader, so it wasn't just a sprinkle value play.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 04:22 AM

From that same card:

UFC 139 Matchup - Seth Baczynski +130

MONEY IN THE BANK, BITCHES!! ALL DAY!!!!!!! Seth is gonna finish this inside the distance. Matt Brown isn't going to be able to keep up. Best he can hope for is getting a submission, it ain't gonna happen. This is an unbelievable line. He should be -220.

it!!!!!!!!!

Love spotting these true value plays!!!

**Vaughany** · 08-03-12, 04:28 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Ok, so he did reach that big of a fav. I had a feeling he made it past -400 by fight day. I just remember people liking Brilz at around +245 and thinking they were crazy. Nunya is the only one I remember specifically liking Brilz, but there were many others, too.

My original point was that it's weird how people expected Bader to lose to Brilz just because he was coming off 2 losses but now think he has a chance against Machida after he's coming off 2 dominant wins.

People literally argued with me that Brilz would beat Bader, so it wasn't just a sprinkle value play.

Not disagreeing with you that people probably did play Brilz at the lines you said, jus saying from what I remember most were just playing him because they didnt think Bader should be such a big favourite coming off two losses...like you say though maybe there were more people on Brilz then I remember

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 04:39 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Not disagreeing with you that people probably did play Brilz at the lines you said, jus saying from what I remember most were just playing him because they didnt think Bader should be such a big favourite coming off two losses...like you say though maybe there were more people on Brilz then I remember

I could understand making a small play on a big dog against someone you think is over-valued, but thinking he had a legitimate shot at winning was crazy. I was right, Bader wasn't overvalued. The line kept rising, and he won quick and easily, so maxing him out at -315 wasn't bad, IMO. I just thought it was silly that people were trying to argue that Brilz would beat Bader, and now thinking Bader might beat Machida reminds me of the same kind of silliness... I was actually thinking about taking a shot with Bader, but that'd be too silly. Bader won't win. He isn't fighting an out of shape Rampage. He is fighting a guy that beat Jon Jones in a round, something he himself didn't come close to doing.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-03-12, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by gabe

So you are ignoring the line that says +245/-305?

When I bet him, he was at -330, and I was getting a worse line than the rest of you were getting online. So for me it was -330, for you it was -305. I remember Nunya liking Brilz in the +200s. Bader opened around -260 and you guys thought that was too much juice. Don't use a bullshit link with different lines on it to back up something you can't remember. Show me your ticket with Brilz at +350. You can't, because it doesn't exist.

The line in black is the opener, the other lines are the best lines at close. I had 1u on Brillz at +300. and another .5u at +290

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

The line in black is the opener, the other lines are the best lines at close. I had 1u on Brillz at +300. and another .5u at +290

I coulda sworn it was you who loved him at around +245, but guess not.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-03-12, 12:40 PM

A fight like that is difficult to judge in hindsight. Do Bader's wins in that matchup consist of 100% KOs? I don't think so. So, what do the fights look like where he doesn't knock him out? Not saying I had the right side, but its easy to get muddled by outlier results like that.

**NunyaBidness** · 08-03-12, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I coulda sworn it was you who loved him at around +245, but guess not.

I probably did, but in my capping I create 'true lines' 'expected openers' and 'expected movement' and sometimes I may not bet an opening line I like because I'm certain I'll get a better line closer to close. Omigawa is a good example this week.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 12:53 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

A fight like that is difficult to judge in hindsight. Do Bader's wins in that matchup consist of 100% KOs? I don't think so. So, what do the fights look like where he doesn't knock him out? Not saying I had the right side, but its easy to get muddled by outlier results like that.

I thought he would get a KO, because he's able to KO guys with not-so-great chins, and Brilz has a very weak chin. Worst case scenario, I saw Bader taking an easy 30-27.

Some fights just handicap themselves. Didn't make sense to me why anyone would waste a dollar on Brillz.

**PunisherIND** · 08-03-12, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I probably did, but in my capping I create 'true lines' 'expected openers' and 'expected movement' and sometimes I may not bet an opening line I like because I'm certain I'll get a better line closer to close. Omigawa is a good example this week.

i need to get on this man's level.

**GunShard** · 08-03-12, 08:39 PM

I'm more comfortable betting on Shogun than Machida because of their opponents.

**caveira** · 08-03-12, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by GunShard

I'm more comfortable betting on Shogun than Machida because of their opponents.

I am thinking the same! Shogun has an iron chin and low gas tank for a 5 rounds fight, i will hit Shogun by tko/ko and maybe Vera by decision as a backup.
Just a fast look at the odds: Shogun by tko/ko 1.66 with Vera by decision 10.0 = 42.37% of profit. Will be my main bet for this card.

**gabe** · 08-03-12, 10:00 PM

Originally posted by caveira

I am thinking the same! Shogun has an iron chin and low gas tank for a 5 rounds fight, i will hit Shogun by tko/ko and maybe Vera by decision as a backup.
Just a fast look at the odds: Shogun by tko/ko 1.66 with Vera by decision 10.0 = 42.37% of profit. Will be my main bet for this card.

I might have something on Vera by KO

**Vitooch** · 08-03-12, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by gabe

From that same card:

UFC 139 Matchup - Seth Baczynski +130

MONEY IN THE BANK, BITCHES!! ALL DAY!!!!!!! Seth is gonna finish this inside the distance. Matt Brown isn't going to be able to keep up. Best he can hope for is getting a submission, it ain't gonna happen. This is an unbelievable line. He should be -220.

it!!!!!!!!!

Love spotting these true value plays!!!

Another blatant display of attention whoring!

**Vaughany** · 08-04-12, 04:13 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Another blatant display of attention whoring!

hahaa

**gabe** · 08-04-12, 05:12 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

Another blatant display of attention whoring!

Looks like it's working! Getting attention from you!!

Too bad you're a terrible capper and can't relate to spotting great plays and having great nights. So you view it as "attention whoring." Keep it up, Vito 0-5.