Joey's MMA Picks

DirtyX · 07-22-12, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

shut the fuckkk up dirty cockk slice, everyone and their mother here and the entire facebook world knows you're on barao's nutz.... We get it, why don't you double down if you're so confident you vajjjj...? DAMNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN!!!

Feeling the shut downs a comin' tonight... 'Just like that diaz gut feeling'.... lol..

Where you at now, you giant rooster in ass..?

Vaughany · 07-22-12, 10:53 AM

lol

JoeyMMA · 07-22-12, 11:03 AM

UFC: 149 Recap

Straight bets 4-1 (+$260)
Parlays 0-1 (-$230)
Props 3-1 (+$560)

7-3 (+$590)

Vaughany · 07-22-12, 11:21 AM

Good job playa

JoeyMMA · 07-22-12, 01:21 PM

Thanks, that Lombard loss really stings though. Don't see how Boetsch won that fight, but that is the state of judging in MMA.

gabe · 07-22-12, 01:32 PM

Way to go, Joey G.

I lost big on a Caraway + Lombard parlay, too.

DirtyX · 07-22-12, 09:14 PM

Nice man. Good job. And Lombard won that fight regardless of how bad I wanted Tim to upset him. That was a robbery imo, and I wanted Hector to lose.

JoeyMMA · 07-31-12, 01:00 AM

Ok, it's almost that time again. UFC on FOX this Saturday, been looking forward to this event got awhile. Still waiting on some lines to drop, but as far as picks are concerned, I like Shogun, Machida, Lauzon, and Davis so far. Any thoughts?

DirtyX · 07-31-12, 11:08 AM

Originally posted by JoeyMMA

Ok, it's almost that time again. UFC on FOX this Saturday, been looking forward to this event got awhile. Still waiting on some lines to drop, but as far as picks are concerned, I like Shogun, Machida, Lauzon, and Davis so far. Any thoughts?

I honestly didn't see anything that I really liked on this card Saturday, betting wise. The lines are too high for me to lay action. I guess I like Machida, but I can't lay $$$ on a -300 favorite. Lauzon is prob. the best line out of the ones you listed, but Varner is live imo. GL.

Hannibal · 07-31-12, 08:49 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

I honestly didn't see anything that I really liked on this card Saturday, betting wise. The lines are too high for me to lay action. I guess I like Machida, but I can't lay $$$ on a -300 favorite. Lauzon is prob. the best line out of the ones you listed, but Varner is live imo. GL.

I'm waiting for Machida points handicap ...anywhere from evens to -150 would be great
If machida wins like he is supposed to win...it wont even be close. Bader wont even touch him.

JoeyMMA · 08-01-12, 10:48 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

I honestly didn't see anything that I really liked on this card Saturday, betting wise. The lines are too high for me to lay action. I guess I like Machida, but I can't lay $$$ on a -300 favorite. Lauzon is prob. the best line out of the ones you listed, but Varner is live imo. GL.

Varner is definitely "live", but I just think he is a little overvalued on the heels of his upset of Barboza. Fight should be close, but I see Lauzon ending it by submission.

DirtyX · 08-01-12, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by JoeyMMA

Varner is definitely "live", but I just think he is a little overvalued on the heels of his upset of Barboza. Fight should be close, but I see Lauzon ending it by submission.

I agree Lauzon by sub. Prob good odds on that prop bet on 5 dimes if you have an account. My book only allows straight bets unfortunately. GL on Saturday player.

JoeyMMA · 08-02-12, 12:25 PM

After some more work, I like Ulysses Gomez a lot. My book hasn't released numbers yet for the prelims (outside of Davis), so I won't be posting anything official til that happens obviously.

JoeyMMA · 08-03-12, 12:26 AM

Finalized a few plays so far:

Johnson/Swick goes the distance (+200) $100 to win $200
Nam Phan (+115) $100 to win $115

That's it for the moment, waiting for a better number on Gamburyan and Lauzon. Also figuring out how I want to parlay Machida/Davis. I've backed off of Shogun, not fond of the price and it's not getting better.

More plays to come, hit me up with any thoughts.

Vaughany · 08-03-12, 04:01 AM

Swick fight going distance is interesting play. DaMarques is one of the most "anti-decision" guys in MMA, always banging on about not letting his fights go the distance and Swick has enough power and the Swickitine to finish it. Guess it's worth a stab though at +200

DirtyX · 08-03-12, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Swick fight going distance is interesting play. DaMarques is one of the most "anti-decision" guys in MMA, always banging on about not letting his fights go the distance and Swick has enough power and the Swickitine to finish it. Guess it's worth a stab though at +200

I am just curious, as my book hasn't released the over/under lines yet. You are betting the "fight goes the distance" at +200? If I just bet the fight goes "over 2.5 rounds", would it usually be significantly less of a payout than +200? I am trying to gauge the difference in odds between the fight going the full distance vs the fight going over 2.5 rounds...

Vaughany · 08-03-12, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

I am just curious, as my book hasn't released the over/under lines yet. You are betting the "fight goes the distance" at +200? If I just bet the fight goes "over 2.5 rounds", would it usually be significantly less of a payout than +200? I am trying to gauge the difference in odds between the fight going the full distance vs the fight going over 2.5 rounds...

Im not betting it personally, but yes if you bet over 2.5 the odds will probably be closer to +150 to +175 range

NunyaBidness · 08-03-12, 05:15 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

I am just curious, as my book hasn't released the over/under lines yet. You are betting the "fight goes the distance" at +200? If I just bet the fight goes "over 2.5 rounds", would it usually be significantly less of a payout than +200? I am trying to gauge the difference in odds between the fight going the full distance vs the fight going over 2.5 rounds...

Someone should run that data on how many fights end after 2:30 of round 3 by weightclass. Probably something exploitable there.

DirtyX · 08-03-12, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Im not betting it personally, but yes if you bet over 2.5 the odds will probably be closer to +150 to +175 range

Cool, thanks man. I was assuming the difference would be around that area.

PunisherIND · 08-03-12, 08:29 PM

they are using 1.5 rounds

Sat 8/4		1301 DaMarques Johnson		+175	o1½ -145
7:00PM		1302 Mike Swick		-210	u1½ +105

JoeyMMA · 08-04-12, 11:10 AM

Sorry for my absence. Been super busy with work.

JoeyMMA · 08-04-12, 11:13 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Swick fight going distance is interesting play. DaMarques is one of the most "anti-decision" guys in MMA, always banging on about not letting his fights go the distance and Swick has enough power and the Swickitine to finish it. Guess it's worth a stab though at +200

It's a bit risky, but I like value. I tend to bet the decision prop on a lot of fights where it nears +200 particularly in smaller weight classes. I'm actually going to bet the same with Thonpson/DeVries too however. Just looking for max value. Everyone wants to see a finish, but you get disappointed more often than not.

I liken my decision bets to betting the draw in soccer. Gotta pick your spots!

JoeyMMA · 08-04-12, 11:36 AM

Adding these today:

Davis/Prado won't go distance///Lyoto Machida (-115) $460 to win $400
Ulysses Gomez (-130) $130 to win $100
Manny Gamburyan (-165) $165 to win $100
Joe Lauzon (-105) $105 to win 100
Thompson/DeVries Over 2.5 Rounds (+180) $100 to win $180
Shogun Rua by decision (+552) $50 to win $275.10
Joe Lauzon wins in Rd1 (+300) $50 to win $150

JoeyMMA · 08-05-12, 01:41 AM

Results from UFC on FOX 4:

Straight plays: 3-1 (+$215)
Parlays: *1-0 (+135.29)
Props: 0-4 (-$300)

Total: 4-5 (+50.29)

Very small + night, but I'll take it. More coming next week for UFC 150.

JoeyMMA · 08-05-12, 11:08 AM

*Davis was graded as a cancelled wager, so my "Parlay" ended up just being a straight bet on Machida, $460 to win $135.29 :/

Beelzebubzy · 08-05-12, 11:10 AM

Congrats Joey
good to see a newbie survive here for more than 1 event

Hope you cash big at 150

gabe · 08-05-12, 07:39 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Congrats Joey
good to see a newbie survive here for more than 1 event

Hope you cash big at 150

I was a newbie not too long ago....... have only had maybe 6 (at most) losing nights since being here.

gabe · 08-05-12, 07:45 PM

I have a feeling you will have a good week coming up...

It will make up for the failures of Ross and Chandlerblades

Beelzebubzy · 08-05-12, 07:46 PM

Congrats to you gabe for surviving her for the past 11 months stoned and profiting

Here is some green rated action for celebration

Little Boxes

gabe · 08-05-12, 07:50 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Congrats to you gabe for surviving her for the past 11 months stoned and profiting

Here is some green rated action for celebration

Little Boxes

that show was so good for three seasons...

Beelzebubzy · 08-05-12, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by gabe

that show was so good for three seasons...

I concur, I watched until half way through season 7 but it was just to follow through
Up to season 3 was great

JoeyMMA · 08-06-12, 03:40 AM

We missed the boat on Okami. Opened -320, now up to -530.

JoeyMMA · 08-11-12, 01:37 PM

UFC 150:

Erik Perez (-140) $140 to win $100
Michael Kuiper (-120) $120 to win $100
Max Holloway (-115) $230 to win $200

I don't like to play more than 2 guys in a parlay, and I'm pissed that I've been busy yet again this week and missed a lot of good numbers...

JoeyMMA · 08-11-12, 02:00 PM

Ben Henderson by 5 round decision (+120) $200 to win $240
Guillard/Cerrone goes 3 round distance (+215) $100 to win $215
Cerrone by Submission (+110) $100 to win $110
Okami wins inside the distance (+117) $100 to win $117
Okami wins in Round 1 (+335) $50 to win $167.50
FOTN Winner Guillard/Cerrone (+300) $50 to win $150

Okami -3.5 points handicap/Lentz/Cerrone parlay (-108) $216 to win $200

JoeyMMA · 08-12-12, 12:33 AM

UFC 150 Recap:

Straight bets 3-0 (+$400)
Props 3-3 (+$257)
Parlay 1-0 (+$200)

Total 7-3 (+$857)

Great night guys, hope you tailed!