HR Derby

[PunisherIND]

I know there is an MLB subforum, but I want to post it here for my degens.

A few lines I like for the derby.

First, I like the AL to win the derby. 5dimes opened the line at -155 but its -170 now. I would jump on this line before it moves. Probably ends up around -200. I just don't see the NL pulling it off. Kemp has been injured for months. I'm surprised the Dodgers are letting him participate, but in any event, I dont see him exerting himself. Then you have McCutchen and Gonzalez, neither of whom are power hitters, per se. McCutchen was a injury fill-in as well. Finally, you have Beltran, who is old and isn't a power hitter either. I would rank all 4 of the AL contestants above any of the NL guys.

Next, I would fade Kemp as I see him putting up a dud. 5dimes has a line for Kemp doesn't reach the finals at -350. I think this is a relatively safe play. If you can get a line for round 1 one-on-one matchups (e.g., Kemp vs. Cano), I would pick any AL guy over Kemp. I particularly like Trumbo or Cano, both of whom are -140 to beat Kemp in round 1 (on Bovada).

Finally, if you want to take a flyer on the winner, I'm leaning towards Trumbo (+500) and Cano (+400).

Would welcome any thoughts.

[Vaughany]

No idea about this shiiit...what's AL?!

[Vaughany]

I guess it's American League? Tho Im seeing -124 on sportbet?

[PunisherIND]

I guess it's American League?

lol yea, American League.

just noticed this arb opportunity:

5d: Cano won't make it to the finals -185
Bovada: Cano makes it to the finals +200

[DeFactoCrippler]

That AL -170 looks real good. Maybe a hedge with Carlos Beltran +650.

Cargo hasn't really been hitting homers since he came off that injury.

Kemp coming off an injury though he wasn't even going to play.

You think Mccutchen can win it? If he does I will my hat to him. Everybody on the AL side juicing heavier than Sonnen. I like Bautista, I know he has flopped before but has been launching BOMBS as of late.

[Vaughany]

Im confused as fucck boys....AL at -120 against National League...is this not the derby tht y'all talking bout?!

[PunisherIND]

Im confused as fucck boys....AL at -120 against National League...is this not the derby tht y'all talking bout?!

vaughany, you're looking at the line for the all star game... i'm talking about HR derby. should be listed under MLB Props.

[PunisherIND]

That AL -170 looks real good. Maybe a hedge with Carlos Beltran +650.

Cargo hasn't really been hitting homers since he came off that injury.

Kemp coming off an injury though he wasn't even going to play.

You think Mccutchen can win it? If he does I will my hat to him. Everybody on the AL side juicing heavier than Sonnen. I like Bautista, I know he has flopped before but has been launching BOMBS as of late.

i feel that the big favorites tend to disappoint, which is why im leaning cano/trumbo over bautista/prince.

[Vaughany]

Ah yeah I see it now..

[more_betterness]

I'm on Trumbo. He has the longest average distance on his homers this year out of any of the competitors. He also has a very free and easy swing for a guy with his raw power while guys like Bautista and Fielder will probably tire in the later rounds due to their violent mechanics.

[PunisherIND]

I like the AL to win the derby. 5dimes opened the line at -155 but its -170 now. I would jump on this line before it moves. Probably ends up around -200.

AL to win HR Derby is up to -210 now. probably wouldnt play it any longer. there are still some nice lines available.

Cano to reach finals +200 on Bovada.
Trumbo to reach finals +255 on 5Dimes.

and again, id play any of the AL hitters to beat Kemp in round 1. should be able to get something around -120 to -150 depending on the AL hitter.

[PunisherIND]

I'm on Trumbo. He has the longest average distance on his homers this year out of any of the competitors. He also has a very free and easy swing for a guy with his raw power while guys like Bautista and Fielder will probably tire in the later rounds due to their violent mechanics.

trumbo to hit longest HR is worth a flyer at +400, but its hard to pick against prince fielder on that one.

[PunisherIND]

just noticed this arb opportunity:

5d: Cano won't make it to the finals -185
Bovada: Cano makes it to the finals +200

cano won't make finals is now -180 on 5dimes... makes it to the finals is still +200 on bovada. free money!!

[more_betterness]

trumbo to hit longest HR is worth a flyer at +400, but its hard to pick against prince fielder on that one.

I put a unit it on em both to hit the longest because I'm a degen. With Stanton dropping out its between those two in my mind.

[PunisherIND]

while we're on the topic of baseball, i really like these lines for division winners:

CWS wins AL Central* -120
WAS wins NL East* -150

[DeFactoCrippler]

Lol at there being one white guy in the whole derby and everyone being all over him. Bo Jackson marked the end of the white man's reign in baseball. Sick of over rated crackers like Joe Dimaggio. When Bo breaks the bat over his knee it symbolizes him breaking the weak genitalia of the white man.

[PunisherIND]

that was too easy! nice winning the bet before the final round even started. lol. and i made some nice coin fading matt kemp. dude only hit 1 HR.

only regret was a play that i made on cano to beat kemp. cant believe cano couldnt even hit 1. lol. but if i had researched this a bit more, i might have learned that the kansas city fans were going to boo the shit out of cano for not picking billy butler for the derby (Cano was the captain and picked the other 3 participants).

[PunisherIND]

playing these tonight. both tiny.

NL/AL no score 1st inn* -120: verlander and cain have great numbers against the hitters they will be facing in the 1st inning. in the last 10 years, only 3 times have there been runs scored in the 1st. i'll take it at close to even.
NL/AL total runs even* +145: this should be closer to +115 imo. historically, more games end with an odd score, but not by much (16 to 14 in the last 30 years).

[DeFactoCrippler]

that was too easy! nice winning the bet before the final round even started. lol. and i made some nice coin fading matt kemp. dude only hit 1 HR.

Yeah. If you hedged with Beltran it was guaranteed cash by the end of the first round.

only regret was a play that i made on cano to beat kemp. cant believe cano couldnt even hit 1. lol. but if i had researched this a bit more, i might have learned that the kansas city fans were going to boo the shit out of cano for not picking billy butler for the derby (Cano was the captain and picked the other 3 participants).

Thats tough. Kemp just didn't have the strength, the only one he hit was that wall scraper. I don't even know why they added him, probably some promotional shit for the Dodgers.

But seriously, did you hear the way they sucked Trumbo's dick for his mediocre performance, going nuts for every one he hit. Prince was launching them and they were just like oh there it goes. Funny how the two guys with the "violent swings" that wouldn't last were the ones hitting them like robots all through the final round.

[PunisherIND]

Yeah. If you hedged with Beltran it was guaranteed cash by the end of the first round.



Thats tough. Kemp just didn't have the strength, the only one he hit was that wall scraper. I don't even know why they added him, probably some promotional shit for the Dodgers.

But seriously, did you hear the way they sucked Trumbo's dick for his mediocre performance, going nuts for every one he hit. Prince was launching them and they were just like oh there it goes. Funny how the two guys with the "violent swings" that wouldn't last were the ones hitting them like robots all through the final round.

yea man, kemp squeaked one over, and cano hit 3 into the wall. lol.

and i hear u about sucking trumbo's nuts. good ole chris berman. cant stand that dude.