UFC 148 - Bookmaker Error = Different Thread = Winning Pick

**TheCalculator** · 07-05-12, 02:05 AM

I like this play. My only issue with Tibau is he's VERY strong because of the "sauce". His strength can nullify a lot of takedowns.

**The HOFF** · 07-05-12, 02:50 AM

Have to disagree strongly with this one. I think Tibau is one of the better bets on the card. What makes you think Tibau is worn down? He is a monster at 155 and will have a considerable size and strength advantage in this fight.

**MMAbetMASTA** · 07-05-12, 06:11 PM

Also disagree, but perhaps you and other khabib backers see something I don't. Didn't get any feedback from this in the other thread, but would love for you or other khabib backers to elaborate on why I'm wrong and why khabib takes this... This was my post:

I'm liking tibau at anything under -200, but paying that kind of juice against a very unkown fighter has cost me before. Having trouble breaking it down as i don't have much to go off of with regard to research on khabib... Seems like gleison is all around better (outside of perhaps cardio I really give tibau the striking, wrestling, jitz, size and experience edge...). As people have said khabib's striking against kamal was pretty hideous (albeit better than kamals haha!) and wild, where tibau's hands look better and better each fight... He's really mixed up his striking with his tds as of late, where before he seemed to focus primarily on wrestling and grappling in his fights. I also think the guy has some of the most underrated tds in the game, I can't think of an opponent who successfully withstood all his tds, and conversely, I think his tdd is also off the chain and very underrated. I think we can all agree kamal, despite his wrestling background on paper, is not a good mma wrestler both defensively and offensively. Khabib outwrestled kamal, but I'm trying to decide how much faith to put into that ability??

I've read people saying tibau needs to stuff khabib's tds and keep it upright where he will win the stand up, but I think tibau might be better suited to throw on the feet for the minority of the round and go for tds and top control the majority of the round. Judges could always favor the sloppy wild striking versus the technical , less volumed appraoch in a 3 round striking battle...

And lastly, tibau has 15 fights in the ufc and has fought a lot of big names, and even in his losses they were pretty competitive bouts for the most part (his last two losses in 9 fights, imo a clear cut robbery against guillard that tibua should have won, and while I slightly scored it 29-28 for J. Miller, I was surprised one judge didn't see it for tibau as it was damn close). Khabib's comp on the other hand has been less than steller, and like I said I don't know how much faith / credit I can give him for owning kamal...

Do you all think khabib can have success taking tibau down? Do you think he will have success on the feet against tibau? Do you think tibau can take down khabib? I think no on the first two questions and yes on the last (therefore I think tibau should be better everywhere this fight goes), but I'm still unsure as I'm basing this off of limited research on khabib..

Also, does anyone know if Khabib was at AKA for his fight with Shalarous? Or was he not training with those dudes yet??

**TheCalculator** · 07-06-12, 12:43 AM

I'll be playing this one LIVE. First 4 minutes should reveal what we need to know.

**Vitooch** · 07-06-12, 01:05 AM

Didn't read all that BetMasta, but I'm assuming you and I are on the same page. Nurma's striking was absolutely dreadful against Kamal. No footwork, chin way up. Any decent striker like Tibau will find an opening and catch him coming in regularly. Tibau's wrestling has been consistently impressive throughout his career and his control is very solid. Listen to Luca Fury's breakdown on his podcast. Tibau or no play.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 07-06-12, 08:26 AM

Khabib Nermo... Nermi... Nermagonotgonnabeundefeatednomore.

Tibau at -200 is the play here.

**KushMoney** · 07-07-12, 10:38 PM

Cash it!! Easy play now just need Cote n Tito by Decision..