UFC 149: Calgary (July 21 2012)

[Bradbatross]

I think it's one of the most solid fights on the card to bet on. I'd stay away from the Barao and Kongo fights.

[bjpenn85]

some fighters have made a career of winning on will and resilience. One takedown, and the fight might be over, i wouldnt call that a solid fight. You have already seen him do it several times. The style matchup is simply unfavourable and risky IMO.

[NunyaBidness]

Is this the best thing to do? Or playing one side with "value"
would love to hear nunya or dfc opinion on this
i have played both sides at positives and will do it again with Jordan Kongo

It is if you don't have an opinion on the fight, or if its part of your original betting strategy.

If you can predict line movements pretty well, you can do some exciting stuff with it. Play around with this and see what you come up with:

http://forum.sbrforum.com/handicapper-think-tank/26617-overbets-line-changes-kelly-spreadsheet.html

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Sportsbook.com has full card odds out

[Vaughany]

Delorme out as underdog, interesting

[Beelzebubzy]

Delorme out as underdog, interesting

Brad bat Ross gellar moved the line
thanks buddy

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

anyone here use sportsbook.com? rated D- at SBR,

[NunyaBidness]

anyone here use sportsbook.com? rated D- at SBR,

Yes, book is fine. I've gotten lots of 4 figure payouts from them with no problem. They hate me and have limited me to $10 on pretty much anything worthwhile, but they still issue payouts in 3 days for me.

Most of their bad rep is how hard they came after guys who were betting correlated parlays.

[Crassus]

Yes, book is fine. I've gotten lots of 4 figure payouts from them with no problem. They hate me and have limited me to $10 on pretty much anything worthwhile, but they still issue payouts in 3 days for me.

Most of their bad rep is how hard they came after guys who were betting correlated parlays.

Correlated parlays?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

the odds are posted on bestfightodds but i check the site and they are not up there. maybe i get a different site in Canada

[NunyaBidness]

the odds are posted on bestfightodds but i check the site and they are not up there. maybe i get a different site in Canada

Yeah, they're like bodog, where every region is kind of its own site, I believe.

[NunyaBidness]

Correlated parlays?

An MMA example would be like betting Sonnen over Silva parlayed with the over, or Silva over Sonnen parlayed with the under. Books don't allow those parlays at all, but they allow semi-correlated parlays in other sports, usually something like 30% correlation before they stop you. Sportsbook was allowing people to bet very large correlations.

You can see how parlaying something like Dog +21, Under 28 is very profitable.

[sideloaded]

Yes, book is fine. I've gotten lots of 4 figure payouts from them with no problem. They hate me and have limited me to $10 on pretty much anything worthwhile, but they still issue payouts in 3 days for me.

Most of their bad rep is how hard they came after guys who were betting correlated parlays.

you couldn't be more wrong. Their payouts take like three months and they blatently stole hundreds of thousands of dollars of legit winnings from players. Hiding behind the correlated parlay excuse.

[Crassus]

An MMA example would be like betting Sonnen over Silva parlayed with the over, or Silva over Sonnen parlayed with the under. Books don't allow those parlays at all, but they allow semi-correlated parlays in other sports, usually something like 30% correlation before they stop you. Sportsbook was allowing people to bet very large correlations.

You can see how parlaying something like Dog +21, Under 28 is very profitable.

Gotcha. I never for that, being ballsy about plays like that to a book. It's legally hazy enough so there's not much recourse if they decide to just say no.

you couldn't be more wrong. Their payouts take like three months and they blatently stole hundreds of thousands of dollars of legit winnings from players. Hiding behind the correlated parlay excuse.

It's all a devious plan by Nunya to get everyones money clogged up at Sportsbook.com and he can take advantage of better odds.

[NunyaBidness]

you couldn't be more wrong. Their payouts take like three months and they blatently stole hundreds of thousands of dollars of legit winnings from players. Hiding behind the correlated parlay excuse.

I'll lay you 4-1 that I can prove that I receive payouts from them in 3 days. Minimum bet $4k to win $1k, max anything you want. We'll both escrow.

[NunyaBidness]

It's all a devious plan by Nunya to get everyones money clogged up at Sportsbook.com and he can take advantage of better odds.

No doubt. I want my $10 bets all to myself.

[sideloaded]

Gotcha. I never for that, being ballsy about plays like that to a book. It's legally hazy enough so there's not much recourse if they decide to just say no.



It's all a devious plan by Nunya to get everyones money clogged up at Sportsbook.com and he can take advantage of better odds.

I wish, but it's just nuyna spewing verbal diarrhea like usual. Much like his dumbass +EV, kelly criterion garbage. He slings out these hot button words to make himself look smart. When everyone knows if you're even the slightest winning gambler mma the limits are so small you can wipe your ass with kelly criterion. I also dont give a f-ck about +EV on large money lines that exist in mma. It's all about expected growth.

[sideloaded]

No doubt. I want my $10 bets all to myself.

Wow is that another humble brag screenshot? Please tell us all agian who you bet pacquiao +350 and still lost. Gabe might make shit up but at least he's obvious when bragging. Unlike you, who always goes with the subtle "oh look guys, I made this awesome bet I want to brag about because Im a awesome gambler"

you've never just posted a real loss that didn't make you look cool

4ever a pro poker player trying to look cool on the internet meng

[Crassus]

Wow is that another humble brag screenshot? Please tell us all agian who you bet pacquiao +350 and still lost. Gabe might make shit up but at least he's obvious when bragging. Unlike you, who always goes with the subtle "oh look guys, I made this awesome bet I want to brag about because Im a awesome gambler"

you've never just posted a real loss that didn't make you look cool

4ever a pro poker player trying to look cool on the internet meng

I'm not really sure how calling Brenneman/Roberts would take more than 2 rounds is possible to brag about

[NunyaBidness]

Wow is that another humble brag screenshot? Please tell us all agian who you bet pacquiao +350 and still lost. Gabe might make shit up but at least he's obvious when bragging. Unlike you, who always goes with the subtle "oh look guys, I made this awesome bet I want to brag about because Im a awesome gambler"

you've never just posted a real loss that didn't make you look cool

4ever a pro poker player trying to look cool on the internet meng

Just gave you an easy chance to make money from me. Take it, or prove you're a troll once and for all.

[Vaughany]

No doubt. I want my $10 bets all to myself.

yep, looks like I've been limited on there now as well! £7 max bet on Roland Delorme lol Best thing is I deposited 1500 on there and account is at 1405 now so I've not even made money on there

[NunyaBidness]

yep, looks like I've been limited on there now as well! £7 max bet on Roland Delorme lol Best thing is I deposited 1500 on there and account is at 1405 now so I've not even made money on there

Sucks. Proves my point, books don't care if you're beating them money-wise, just if you're beating them.

[DublinMeUp]

Sucks. Proves my point, books don't care if you're beating them money-wise, just if you're beating them.

but its all about picking winnerz, how could you be beating them if you didn't pick winnerz??

[NunyaBidness]

but its all about picking winnerz, how could you be beating them if you didn't pick winnerz??

Accept the mystery.

[Beelzebubzy]

Delorme out as underdog, interesting

Line is moving the wrong way.

Damn you Ross Gellar, You better hit that line at -150

[Vaughany]

yeah I maxed the +140, if he doesnt come out as favourite when BM and sportbet release he will probably end up fave or at least Evens

[Thor4140]

Delorme out as underdog, interesting

To me there are a lot of interesting dogs. Riddle shouldn't be favored over a tackling dummy let alone another fighter. Back before the Brown fight i caught a lot of flack saying Faber was overrated. U would think i insulted the guys mother. Now i think it is a different story with Faber. I think this version of Faber would have killed the Faber who fought Aldo. His hands just look so much better. I can't see him being a dog in this fight.

[Beelzebubzy]

Dropped 3u on Baker at -165

Jimmo -130 Sportsbook Perosh +140 Bookmaker

[varkolek]

anyone here use sportsbook.com? rated D- at SBR,

Probably about a year back I used them, and was unable to withdraw. I had only just discovered these books, before that was using the Euro books from oddschecker. Anyway, I googled 'sportsbook.com withdrawal problems' and got about a million results. It scared the shit out of me.

I can't remember the exact details, but I think sportsbook did things like send cheques which bounced, and then claimed the withdrawal had been completed. Also stole winnings from people, perhaps for correlated plays I don't know or can't remember.

Eventually sportsbook did take steps for me to complete the withdrawal, but it took so long and they seemed so unmotivated in returning my money it scared me. I've had other books solicit me with emails to with deposit for a bonus, and then accuse me of making duplicate accounts and stealing the bonus. But at least when they're stealing your money they act polite. sportsbook didn't seem to care what their reputation was, not just with me but all the other people complaining.

I just resolved not to use them any more. At the moment I think they have two websites, one US and one international. I think the international has worse odds and fewer markets so it's of no interest to me anyway.

[Rubber Guard]

Don't understand why Kongo is the dog. I understand Jordan is ever improving and is very athletic and quicker than Kongo. But he has been KO'd twice already in the past 3 years by non-ufc talent.

I've always thought Kongo was overrated, but he is still a better striker than this guy. Jordan's wrestling is decent but so is Kongo's TDD. Kongo has the reach, footwork, and experience advantages. Jordan could come right out and KO Kongo, but on paper I don't really see why he is the favorite.


I also think Boetsch is a live dog.

[gabe]

Wow is that another humble brag screenshot? Please tell us all agian who you bet pacquiao +350 and still lost. Gabe might make shit up but at least he's obvious when bragging. Unlike you, who always goes with the subtle "oh look guys, I made this awesome bet I want to brag about because Im a awesome gambler"

you've never just posted a real loss that didn't make you look cool

4ever a pro poker player trying to look cool on the internet meng

what have i made up?

[Vaughany]

Lmao

[Vaughany]

To me there are a lot of interesting dogs. Riddle shouldn't be favored over a tackling dummy let alone another fighter. Back before the Brown fight i caught a lot of flack saying Faber was overrated. U would think i insulted the guys mother. Now i think it is a different story with Faber. I think this version of Faber would have killed the Faber who fought Aldo. His hands just look so much better. I can't see him being a dog in this fight.

Yep I agree, I think Faber has improved since Aldo too

[Grabaka]

Faber will be my biggest bet in the card i think.....but lord knows with live betting

[Thor4140]

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