Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Why is Kovalev -105 here? I took him at -120 and thought I was getting a steal. I 'capped him at -230.

I have no idea. I would cap him around -230 as well. This price drop reminds me of when gold dropped to under $1300/ounce & silver dropped to under $19/ounce a couple of weeks ago. I have two words....... POUND TOWN!

[hougigo]

Why is Kovalev -105 here? I took him at -120 and thought I was getting a steal. I 'capped him at -230.

Because Cleverly his highly rated, for some reason, and he's fighting in Cleverly's hometown.
Also, there's always the question of if Cleverly can bring kovalev into the later rounds and win there.... if that happens he'll probably get help from the judges.
IMO though, Kovalev starches him. He just needs to start fast and if it has to go to the cards, win enough clear rounds.

[hougigo]

I've said in the past Cleverly is the weakest champ (Shuvemnov gets a pass because he hasn't fought in a year). I don't know what's so impressive about him, but people think he's the next joe Calzaghe.... and I don't know if that's good or bad.

[hougigo]

Pac/Rios props up.... Pac in rounds 7-12 looks nice.... looks like it'll go up as the fight gets closer too

[Fistula]

You say Campillo has better skills but you're still taking Fonfara? I don't think it's a good idea to make a pick based on a hunch about the promotion. Especially because Fonfara just isn't that good. Did you watch his last fight, vs Karpency? I watched that and some of his earlier fights last week. There's amateur videos of lots of his non-televised fights on youtube. He's got slow feet, poor head movement, and he lets what should be a good jab get countered pretty easily. Karpency isn't a world-class fighter but he hit Fonfara a lot and it was an even fight till Fonfara quit with an injury. He did not look impressive at all in the other fights I watched, so I think he only looked ok against Johnson because Johnson had nothing left. He's an accurate and pretty hard right-hand puncher and seems likes he's improving, but if Campillo at his best shows up I think he wins. I don't think Fonfara can outbox Campillo, and Campillo handled better offensive fighters than Fonfara in Shumenov and Cloud. Yeah Campillo is a light puncher who fights on the back foot so close rounds could go to the ineffective aggressor, but at plus odds I'll take a chance that this fight won't even be close enough for that to be an issue.

I hope you're aware Fanfara is fighting Gabriel Campillo, not Cloud as you wrote in your post

[Fistula]

Oh, I have some leans on some upcoming fights that don't have odds up, but I won't post anything yet because I don't want to give the bookies any ideas, haha

[hougigo]

You say Campillo has better skills but you're still taking Fonfara? I don't think it's a good idea to make a pick based on a hunch about the promotion. Especially because Fonfara just isn't that good. Did you watch his last fight, vs Karpency? I watched that and some of his earlier fights last week. There's amateur videos of lots of his non-televised fights on youtube. He's got slow feet, poor head movement, and he lets what should be a good jab get countered pretty easily. Karpency isn't a world-class fighter but he hit Fonfara a lot and it was an even fight till Fonfara quit with an injury. He did not look impressive at all in the other fights I watched, so I think he only looked ok against Johnson because Johnson had nothing left. He's an accurate and pretty hard right-hand puncher and seems likes he's improving, but if Campillo at his best shows up I think he wins. I don't think Fonfara can outbox Campillo, and Campillo handled better offensive fighters than Fonfara in Shumenov and Cloud. Yeah Campillo is a light puncher who fights on the back foot so close rounds could go to the ineffective aggressor, but at plus odds I'll take a chance that this fight won't even be close enough for that to be an issue.

I hope you're aware Fanfara is fighting Gabriel Campillo, not Cloud as you wrote in your post

Did I say Cloud? I mean Campillo.
But yea... this is a hunch for me. I don't doubt that Campillo is a better fighter, he is most definitely a better fighter. Fonfara had trouble with an aging and old Johnson who retired right after. I thought he was losing the Kaprancy fight until the KO though.
But it's Campillo... it's so hard to take him because everything is always against him. Most of his losses are such blatant robberies that you don't really feel like taking him.
While I do think Campillo will do good in this fight and probably win, Fonfara is fighting in Chicago,Illonois... he has a huge fanbase there.
I just can't take Campillo because I feel like a robbery is coming. This is just superstition i guess.
Speaking of Cloud.... another fight Campillo should have won

[hougigo]

Also the fact that this is an IBF eliminator makes me think the odds are that much more against him because Hopkins is the champ right now. Who do you think they'd rather have him in there with?
A good boxer who isn't as popular among the public, or somebody who's ok at boxing that has a good following in the polish community and would probably be easier?
The fight would probably be at Barclays and I think they have a good polish community on the East coast.
Like I said... my superstition is taking over for me... I want to take Campillo, but my head is screaming don't bother.

Sounds weird, but in short I think Campillo is the better boxer who should win, but won't because of boxing politics

[hougigo]

Because Cleverly his highly rated, for some reason, and he's fighting in Cleverly's hometown.
Also, there's always the question of if Cleverly can bring kovalev into the later rounds and win there.... if that happens he'll probably get help from the judges.
IMO though, Kovalev starches him. He just needs to start fast and if it has to go to the cards, win enough clear rounds.

IMO, the fight gets interesting if Cleverly can bring him into the later rounds. Kovalev an excellent starter, but he's never been 12 rounds. LIke I said in the past, the last time he went past 7, he looked pretty tired. He koed his opponent because that guy was already dying, literally.
If Kovalev can manage to bring it 12 and he can make it close in those rounds, no doubt he'll get those rounds... and if Kovalev doesn't bank enough early rounds, he's screwed

[hougigo]

You say Campillo has better skills but you're still taking Fonfara? I don't think it's a good idea to make a pick based on a hunch about the promotion. Especially because Fonfara just isn't that good. Did you watch his last fight, vs Karpency? I watched that and some of his earlier fights last week. There's amateur videos of lots of his non-televised fights on youtube. He's got slow feet, poor head movement, and he lets what should be a good jab get countered pretty easily. Karpency isn't a world-class fighter but he hit Fonfara a lot and it was an even fight till Fonfara quit with an injury. He did not look impressive at all in the other fights I watched, so I think he only looked ok against Johnson because Johnson had nothing left. He's an accurate and pretty hard right-hand puncher and seems likes he's improving, but if Campillo at his best shows up I think he wins. I don't think Fonfara can outbox Campillo, and Campillo handled better offensive fighters than Fonfara in Shumenov and Cloud. Yeah Campillo is a light puncher who fights on the back foot so close rounds could go to the ineffective aggressor, but at plus odds I'll take a chance that this fight won't even be close enough for that to be an issue.

I hope you're aware Fanfara is fighting Gabriel Campillo, not Cloud as you wrote in your post

You're probably right, i'm probably overthinking it and adding too many variables that might not matter in the end....I just can't because it's Campillo, haha.
I honestly hope he wins though... dude's treated like garbage but keeps on fighting

[Fistula]

I'd just suggest not making a play if you're worried about the Fonfara-Campillo fight. You'll be pissed off if you pick against the guy you think is the better fighter but he ends up winning...

[hougigo]

I'd just suggest not making a play if you're worried about the Fonfara-Campillo fight. You'll be pissed off if you pick against the guy you think is the better fighter but he ends up winning...

I already put down 50.....eghh, I need to calm down here.
Sometimes I don't know when to stop or when I shouldn't.
In hindsight... this is a play I probably should have laid off

[Boxscout]

Geale by decision down to -135, much to my annoyance. It was recently +120, available to those outside of the US and North Korea. Stayed there for a long time too.

Why is Kovalev -105 here? I took him at -120 and thought I was getting a steal. I 'capped him at -230.

As the lone Clev advocate, I'll say that it's what others have touched upon. If Cleverly can survive, which is a significant if, he has a lot of advantages. His stamina and work rate are high. He's been in long, tough fights against world level opposition, which Kovalev never has been (he blasted out the slow starting Campillo when Campillo was probably at his worst). He has the various advantages of fighting at home. He is a cottage industry in Whales, with the potential to be a very successful one. The officials have every reason to favor him.

Campillo/Fonfara is really interesting. Another thing to consider is that Campillo will likely hand Fonfara the first round on a platter, as he always does. Probably the second too. Some similar elements to Clev/Kov, but switched around a little. Fonfara is the local business. They expect over 10,000 for this one. But it is the road fighter, Campillo, who is more tested and experienced. Not sure what, if anything, I'll do yet.

Did put a little on Liakhovich at +1000. That is just too much, especially considering they are heavyweights.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Geale by decision down to -135, much to my annoyance. It was recently +120, available to those outside of the US and North Korea. Stayed there for a long time too.



As the lone Clev advocate, I'll say that it's what others have touched upon. If Cleverly can survive, which is a significant if, he has a lot of advantages. His stamina and work rate are high. He's been in long, tough fights against world level opposition, which Kovalev never has been (he blasted out the slow starting Campillo when Campillo was probably at his worst). He has the various advantages of fighting at home. He is a cottage industry in Whales, with the potential to be a very successful one. The officials have every reason to favor him.

Campillo/Fonfara is really interesting. Another thing to consider is that Campillo will likely hand Fonfara the first round on a platter, as he always does. Probably the second too. Some similar elements to Clev/Kov, but switched around a little. Fonfara is the local business. They expect over 10,000 for this one. But it is the road fighter, Campillo, who is more tested and experienced. Not sure what, if anything, I'll do yet.

Did put a little on Liakhovich at +1000. That is just too much, especially considering they are heavyweights.

[Fistula]

While you Americans do miss out on the best books, better odds generally, and some interesting boxing props, 5dimes is still essential for boxing bettors and here's one reason I started using it... The British bookies have the over/under for Wilder-Liakhovich at 7.5 rounds, but 5dimes has it available at both 7.5 and 3.5 rounds. I'm going with a small play on over 3.5 rounds, at -130. This is a mismatch because Liakhovich is shot but he's still Wilder's best opponent and he has a solid chin. Liakhovich isn't going to win, but I think he'll avoid Wilder's power long enough that this will be a 5 or 6 round ugly bludgeoning rather than a clean 1 or 2 round knockout. I also like betting against an early knockout because I don't think much of Wilder and think he'll be exposed when he faces a guy with good boxing skills who won't give him an easy target.

[hougigo]

While you Americans do miss out on the best books, better odds generally, and some interesting boxing props, 5dimes is still essential for boxing bettors and here's one reason I started using it... The British bookies have the over/under for Wilder-Liakhovich at 7.5 rounds, but 5dimes has it available at both 7.5 and 3.5 rounds. I'm going with a small play on over 3.5 rounds, at -130. This is a mismatch because Liakhovich is shot but he's still Wilder's best opponent and he has a solid chin. Liakhovich isn't going to win, but I think he'll avoid Wilder's power long enough that this will be a 5 or 6 round ugly bludgeoning rather than a clean 1 or 2 round knockout. I also like betting against an early knockout because I don't think much of Wilder and think he'll be exposed when he faces a guy with good boxing skills who won't give him an easy target.

I only use 5dimes and heritage and 5d is far suprerior in what's offered.
I agree with Liakhovich... but he has not been very active lately and I'm afraid he'll plod forward with his rust and have it shaken off with a Wilder right.
Full disclosure... i'm a Wilder hater until he proves me wrong. He's chinny and lacks technique
Liakovich isn't a top fighter anymore, but he's still a step up for wilder and his baby step progression.

[Fistula]

The fights on Friday Night Fights tomorrow are of course more interesting to bet on...

Nugaev-Hernandez I think is almost a lock to go the distance. It's a close match-up, both have solid chins, and neither are huge punchers.

Nugaev cuts off the ring well and might have some success, but I'm going with Hernandez to win. He's a bit better defensively, he positions himself pretty well, and I like how smooth and relaxed he is. He's a lot better than his 14-6-1 record suggests. He drew with Mickey Bey 2 years ago, and his losses were either close decisions or to other quality prospects and contenders. Being matched tough probably has sharpened his abilities and should suggest he can handle Nugaev.

[Boxscout]

The over on Wilder is +100 now, so I put a bit there. I agree with what you guys have said and also, I think maybe one reason Wilder is fighting SL is to get some pro rounds in. SL says he's had a proper, 2 month camp and he looks fit in photos. He's done some things in boxing and is about the same age as Floyd. There's no evidence that he's showing up for a check, as some are saying. If he survives and has effective moments, he'll get more fights like this. Obviously, if he wins, so much the better.

Reminds me of Price/Thompson so much. Right down to the favorite being fresh off destroying Audley Harrison. Obviously, SL is not as good as Tony, but I don't think Wilder looks as good as Price did.

Watching the FNF guys now and deciding if I want to follow your plays Fistula. Your reasoning sounds good. Thanks for sharing them.

[Fistula]

You sure are reaching for straws to convince yourself that Liakhovich has a chance! At this point in his career he is so slow and easy to hit. I'll be shocked if he wins rounds, I only think he'll survive the first couple rounds before taking a beating.

I won't say Hernandez is a sure pick to win, I just like his style and think he's being underrated. I made a pretty big bet on the over, but just a small bet on Hernandez. Pedraza-Tolmajyan is also a nice match-up. Tolmajyan is a good counterpuncher and a smart boxer and I love how he took apart an undefeated puncher in his last fight, but Pedraza has those same qualities plus he has the faster foot and hand speed and is the heavier puncher. I like Pedraza but I'm hoping by decision props pop up soon, I don't think I'm willing to take him at -275.

[hougigo]

You sure are reaching for straws to convince yourself that Liakhovich has a chance! At this point in his career he is so slow and easy to hit. I'll be shocked if he wins rounds, I only think he'll survive the first couple rounds before taking a beating.

I won't say Hernandez is a sure pick to win, I just like his style and think he's being underrated. I made a pretty big bet on the over, but just a small bet on Hernandez. Pedraza-Tolmajyan is also a nice match-up. Tolmajyan is a good counterpuncher and a smart boxer and I love how he took apart an undefeated puncher in his last fight, but Pedraza has those same qualities plus he has the faster foot and hand speed and is the heavier puncher. I like Pedraza but I'm hoping by decision props pop up soon, I don't think I'm willing to take him at -275.

Yea, I"m just on him small because this is once again Wilder's biggest step up he should win. Also like I said earlier, I'm a bonafide Wilder hater. All he has is offense going for him and his chin is suspect. Got knocked down by some janitor and knocked down a couple times in the ams.

[Fistula]

My comment was in reply to Boxscout, but did you really take Liakhovich too? I couldn't care much less about this fight though, both fights on FNF will be so much better to watch.

[hougigo]

My comment was in reply to Boxscout, but did you really take Liakhovich too? I couldn't care much less about this fight though, both fights on FNF will be so much better to watch.

Yea, nothing big.

[Fistula]

I didn't know Wilder's been knocked down, interesting info.

[hougigo]

I didn't know Wilder's been knocked down, interesting info.

I think it was Sconiers who knocked him down (can't find it on youtube right now... but it's somehwere on there) And i forgot the Russian he fought in the ams, but he got knocked down several times with headgear on.
Nothing big has ever been landed on him, so we don't know how good his chin is

[Crassus]

I have no idea. I would cap him around -230 as well. This price drop reminds me of when gold dropped to under $1300/ounce & silver dropped to under $19/ounce a couple of weeks ago. I have two words....... POUND TOWN!

lol, are you as good at commodities as you are at gambling?

[Ron_Paul_2012]

lol, are you as good at commodities as you are at gambling?

Are you a paper bug?

[MD]

lol, are you as good at commodities as you are at gambling?

Only if you can parlay them.

[hougigo]

i don't have anything on FNF.... Fistula does. I just wasn't interested in it.
I'm only down small today for Liakhovich and over like I said earlier.
Not too much, 15 on liak and 20 on over.

[Fistula]

Make sure to watch the show though. These are two of the best FNF matchups this year. Pedraza is a really good prospect in with tricky boxer, and Nugaev-Hernandez could be a 10 round war.

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Make sure to watch the show though. These are two of the best FNF matchups this year. Pedraza is a really good prospect in with tricky boxer, and Nugaev-Hernandez could be a 10 round war.

I have Nugaev in a 6 team parlay.

[hougigo]

Make sure to watch the show though. These are two of the best FNF matchups this year. Pedraza is a really good prospect in with tricky boxer, and Nugaev-Hernandez could be a 10 round war.

Yea, Showbox hasn't started yet and I got my laptop next to my tv

[Ron_Paul_2012]

Only if you can parlay them.

You know it! MD, please tell me that your NOT a paper bug.

[hougigo]

Pedraza with the double leg takedown

[Das Jax]

I'm not a real big boxing guy, but that was a good fight.

For posterity, I took Nugaev/Hernandez ITD and the under on the Wilder fight.

[hougigo]

I'm not a real big boxing guy, but that was a good fight.

For posterity, I took Nugaev/Hernandez ITD and the under on the Wilder fight.

Better fight on Showbox... It's good if it wasn't for all of Bennett's holding