The Ultimate Fighter Live Finale

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

MAIN CARD (FX)

• Jake Ellenberger vs. Martin Kampmann
• Mike Chiesa vs. Al Iaquinta ("TUF: Live" tourney finale)
• Max Holloway vs. Pat Schilling
• Jonathan Brookins vs. Charles Oliveira

PRELIMINARY CARD (FUEL TV)

• Justin Lawrence vs. John Cofer
• Myles Jury vs. Chris Saunders
• Daron Cruickshank vs. Chris Tickle
• Cristiano Marcello vs. Sam Sicilia
• John Albert vs. Erik Perez
• Jeremy Larsen vs. Joe Proctor

[Grabaka]

I like Ellenberger's price.

[The HOFF]

Ellenberger vs Kampmann is a 5 round fight, correct?

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Missed the Brookins/Oliviera opener. I had a hard time capping that fight before peeking at the line so seeing Brookins open at +220 makes me jealous of anyone who caught that.

[fosho14]

I like Ellenberger's price.

The only thing that concerns me is his gas tank. Is this 5 rounds? I feel like the longer this fight goes the more it will favor kampann. Jake was completely done half-way into the third against sanchez, and it's too bad we didn't get to see another 2 rounds because it couldv'e exposed Jakes conditioning deficiency. Plus kampmann has the better sub game fer sure. I give the striking (power) edge to ellenberger. With that being said, is there not value in kampmann at +180?

[Vitooch]

This is a 5 round fight. One of the reasons why I really like Kampmann here.

[Jerseychi]

The only thing that concerns me is his gas tank. Is this 5 rounds? I feel like the longer this fight goes the more it will favor kampann. Jake was completely done half-way into the third against sanchez, and it's too bad we didn't get to see another 2 rounds because it couldv'e exposed Jakes conditioning deficiency. Plus kampmann has the better sub game fer sure. I give the striking (power) edge to ellenberger. With that being said, is there not value in kampmann at +180?

I've been thinking about this too. Kampmann, although he gets rocked, has a good chin. Even when Daley had him hurt, he never went down. Kampmann's striking is as crisp as it comes, and his takedown defense is superb. He does have a weakness when guys pressure him though. This is a tough fight to call, but for +180 I think I'd take Martin.

[TheCalculator]

I'm liking Kampmann also. His skills are trending UP. Big improvements in the Story fight (he outwrestled the wrestler).

[Vitooch]

I think im going to play "not Ellen erger inside the distance" at around -156. Kampmann has sharper boxing, and the chin to withstand Ellenberger's early onslaught. If Ellenberger wins, it will most liekly be by outwrestling him for a decision. There is a posssiblity, however that Kampmann will finish him later in the fight as Punisher mentioned and also outpointing him for a decision

[gabe]

I would say there's a decent chance that Ellenberger finishes Kampmann.

[MMAbetMASTA]

I would say there's a decent chance that Ellenberger finishes Kampmann.

gotta agree, wouldn't be surprised if he gets a tko on martin....

However I've bet against martin his past 2 fights and we saw how that worked out haha, and in a 5 rounder with jakes cardio issues and martin's chin its hard for me to play jake su at those odds...

Even props are scary for a jake play, I could see him finishing, but I can also see martin taking it for 3 rounds and then winning the last two as jake gasses, perhaps giving jake a 48-47 d win... Yet I still don't think I can bring myself to play martin, I'll prob make a line play on jake SU if he drops (which I think he will, I think kapman will get more and more action as it gets closer to fight time), otherwise this match will prob be a no play for me...

Its a tough no play for me too, because I've made nice coin on ellenberger and have bet him fairly large his past 4 fights... This one I def won't be going large.

[Vitooch]

Some thoughts on this fight...

Ellenberger seems to fade by the 3 round (Sanchez fight, gassed fairly early in Rocha fight, Condit fight)...If this fight gets to the third round, I see Kampmann winning rounds 4 and 5. Ellenberger will probably be too tired to take down a skilled grappler in Kampmann.

I'm having a hard time seeing Ellenberger finish Kampmann. Kampmann has much better technical striking than any of the fighters Ellenberger has finished in his career. Also, Kampmann himself has a great chin and rarely gets finished.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Btw, what do you all think about kapman / jake's line movement? Above I said I think martin will get more and more action as the week progresses, therefore I think jake's line will close lower than what he is at and have better value, yet jake's price seems to be creeping up slowly but surely... So now i'm having second thoughts

Where do you all see this line movement going over the next few days??

[bjpenn85]

Kampmanns line will probably not improve, while jakes will. I think people buy into ellenbergers cardio issues in the last fight, and kampmanns relative output edge in a 5 round fight. i

[Vaughany]

[IMG][/IMG]

May have to play Cofer or at least Cofer by decision at +350 or something. If he's smart and uses his wrestling who could take this

[Beelzebubzy]

Played Schilling small. Has a grappling advantage here.

[illmatick]

AL IAQUINTA for me.

Could end up being my only straight bet on the card.

[BIGDAY]

[IMG][/IMG]

May have to play Cofer or at least Cofer by decision at +350 or something. If he's smart and uses his wrestling who could take this

Lawrence should not be more favored than -200 imo.

[BIGDAY]

Al laquina/Chiesa odds are about where they should be imo. Books not giving any favors. Chiesa could take him down but laquinta will stay busy enough on ground and will have plenty of oppertunity for a switch. Was hoping Al laquinta would be in the -150 to -190 range.

Oh well. Should be a good event anyhow.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Kampmanns line will probably not improve, while jakes will. I think people buy into ellenbergers cardio issues in the last fight, and kampmanns relative output edge in a 5 round fight. i

so wouldn't that entice action on martin?? I agree with your last sentence but if anything I would think that would cause people to lean martin, especially casual bettors.

[BIGDAY]

Couple Units on Pat Schilling +105

Odds should be switched imo. BOL

[Oblivian]

Well it looks like I'm in the minority here. I like Ellenberger against Kampmann. I think it's a flaw to assume Ellenberger will not be prepared for a five round fight due to the ending of the Sanchez fight. Sanchez pushes a much harder pace than Kampmann. Also, Sanchez only got the back due to a slip from Ellenberger. Ellenberger knew he had to ride out the rest of the round and he'd be fine. The only other time he really showed gassing was a short notice fight against Condit - who also pushes a much higher pace.

With Holloway and Schilling, I'm really liking Holloway at this price. Despite losing to Poirier, his movement and standup looked solid. He also did not tap easily. Pineda completely rolled Schilling. He looked fully outclassed standing and on the ground. Holloway at least looked decent with the stet up in competition, but Schilling just folded. I'm not convinced his ground game is that solid either.

[MMAbetMASTA]

Well it looks like I'm in the minority here. I like Ellenberger against Kampmann. I think it's a flaw to assume Ellenberger will not be prepared for a five round fight due to the ending of the Sanchez fight. Sanchez pushes a much harder pace than Kampmann. Also, Sanchez only got the back due to a slip from Ellenberger. Ellenberger knew he had to ride out the rest of the round and he'd be fine. The only other time he really showed gassing was a short notice fight against Condit - who also pushes a much higher pace.

With Holloway and Schilling, I'm really liking Holloway at this price. Despite losing to Poirier, his movement and standup looked solid. He also did not tap easily. Pineda completely rolled Schilling. He looked fully outclassed standing and on the ground. Holloway at least looked decent with the stet up in competition, but Schilling just folded. I'm not convinced his ground game is that solid either.

I got jake to win man, just won't play him at that price. However I def won't play martin as a dog, prob just a no play fight for me. Good points on the sanchez fight, jake had an intersting interview saying people are judging him too much on that, and he claimed he 'cruised' that last round and playedd it safe and wasn't as gassed as he seemed. Plus like you said, his camp knows the cardio is a lingering question and coming from such a great camp there is no doubt in my mind that conditioning will be a central focus.

Agree too on Holloway, hopefully schilling continues to get action cause I'd make a small sprinkle on max as a dog, out of what I've seen from both men, holloway def impresses more...

[BIGDAY]

Well it looks like I'm in the minority here. I like Ellenberger against Kampmann. I think it's a flaw to assume Ellenberger will not be prepared for a five round fight due to the ending of the Sanchez fight. Sanchez pushes a much harder pace than Kampmann. Also, Sanchez only got the back due to a slip from Ellenberger. Ellenberger knew he had to ride out the rest of the round and he'd be fine. The only other time he really showed gassing was a short notice fight against Condit - who also pushes a much higher pace.

With Holloway and Schilling, I'm really liking Holloway at this price. Despite losing to Poirier, his movement and standup looked solid. He also did not tap easily. Pineda completely rolled Schilling. He looked fully outclassed standing and on the ground. Holloway at least looked decent with the stet up in competition, but Schilling just folded. I'm not convinced his ground game is that solid either.

I like him to win also. I also see that he can win this fight early. Guy has some serious power. Waiting, as line keeps going in our direction though...

[bjpenn85]

sure, i messed up.

[Vaughany]

I got jake to win man, just won't play him at that price. However I def won't play martin as a dog, prob just a no play fight for me. Good points on the sanchez fight, jake had an intersting interview saying people are judging him too much on that, and he claimed he 'cruised' that last round and playedd it safe and wasn't as gassed as he seemed. Plus like you said, his camp knows the cardio is a lingering question and coming from such a great camp there is no doubt in my mind that conditioning will be a central focus.

Agree too on Holloway, hopefully schilling continues to get action cause I'd make a small sprinkle on max as a dog, out of what I've seen from both men, holloway def impresses more...

I dont know if he's mentioned it but I think I can recall Ellenberger getting poked in the eye in the third or something and from then he seemed to lose interest and tire Need to watch the fight again really

[Vaughany]

[IMG][/IMG]

[MMAbetMASTA]

[IMG][/IMG]

plays I'm looking at will prob be at ridiculous odds by the time they get on my book... lol I know exactly what a lot of you are gonna slam, I bet we're thinking the same...

Anyone know anything about perez??? I have yet to research but curious on initial thoughts / insight for him...

[Vaughany]

plays I'm looking at will prob be at ridiculous odds by the time they get on my book... lol I know exactly what a lot of you are gonna slam, I bet we're thinking the same...

Anyone know anything about perez??? I have yet to research but curious on initial thoughts / insight for him...

Jackson guy who beat Paul McVeigh by decision in his last fight...predominantly a striker. Kong Watson and Leonard Garcia have been biggin him up a lot saying he's one of the toughest guys in the gym. I think he may have issue with the weight-cut on short notice, will be interesting to see the weigh-in. I liked Albert but not sure at those odds

[fosho14]

lol I know exactly what a lot of you are gonna slam, I bet we're thinking the same...

IDK, personally got a few things in mind. What were u thinking of slamming masta?

[Vitooch]

Would like to hear your thoughts on some fights...I think Cruick could be a perfect fighter to throw in a parlay

Thinking Cruick's superior wrestling and Tickle's deficiency in that area would be the difference.

Perez looks pretty solid in his BAMMA fights....he's got solid Muay Thai chops and a solid submission game. However, at these odds, I'm having a tough time taking a newcomer who, according to V i think, is taking this fight short notice against a fighter who almost finished Ivan Menjivar in his last fight.

[GNI]

Plus like you said, his camp knows the cardio is a lingering question and coming from such a great camp there is no doubt in my mind that conditioning will be a central focus.

[Vitooch]

May have to play Cofer or at least Cofer by decision at +350 or something. If he's smart and uses his wrestling who could take this

Does Cofer have a background in wrestling? In his fight to get into the house, he outwrestled fighter who seemed severely lacking in TDD. From what I remember, he had little to no success taking Vinc Pichel down. Lawrence's wrestling is pretty good, considering how athletic and strong his balance is. His biggest issue seems to be his cardio and decision making, neither of which I think will be a major factor here.

[Vaughany]

Does Cofer have a background in wrestling? In his fight to get into the house, he outwrestled fighter who seemed severely lacking in TDD. From what I remember, he had little to no success taking Vinc Pichel down. Lawrence's wrestling is pretty good, considering how athletic and strong his balance is. His biggest issue seems to be his cardio and decision making, neither of which I think will be a major factor here.

Cofer was a D1 wrestler

[Vitooch]

Cofer was a D1 wrestler

Surprised he had so much trouble taking Pichel down....will have to rewatch fight