Thiago Silva vs Gustafsson

[Vitooch]

All im hoping is that this fight doesnt go the distance. Need that bet to hit

[NunyaBidness]

Thiago has advantages
More accurate with his punches and gets tagged less. See the Fightmetrics.

Fightmetric stats are pretty close to useless. Comparing fighter 1 landing 55% of strikes against opponents A, B, and C to fighter 2 landing 40% of strikes against oppenents X, Y, and Z means nothing without analyzing the matchups.

If the numbers meant anything, books would be creating much sharper lines out the gate. Modeling data is something they are very good at.

[omalley21]

Thiago probably isn't being tested periodically while he's suspended is he? He could be using PED's this whole time, it only takes like 3-4 weeks for testosterone levels to return to normal (do we even know what he was using?). I agree with Vitooch that the safest play is fight won't go distance. They're both finishers.

[Beelzebubzy]

Fightmetric stats are pretty close to useless. Comparing fighter 1 landing 55% of strikes against opponents A, B, and C to fighter 2 landing 40% of strikes against oppenents X, Y, and Z means nothing without analyzing the matchups.

If the numbers meant anything, books would be creating much sharper lines out the gate. Modeling data is something they are very good at.

I agree with your point here Nunya, and it would have been a great counter point if Gustaffson fought the better strikers causing his numbers to be worse. However, Silva has fought the most elusive striker in the UFC (Machida) and other above average strikers (Rashad) whereas, Gustaffsons has been tagged by lesser strikers (Hamill). Yes, I know Gustaffsn fought Diabate who is a great striker himself.

The point that I was originally trying to make is that Gustaffsons striking defense is not the best in the world and he can be caught.

Nunya, I always appreciate you playing devils advocate and bringing in your 'Asperger's' opinion

[Rubber Guard]

Gustaf also beat Te Huna...who is a solid and very powerful striker.

Not sure how much Rashad can factor into Silva's striking opponents when he didn't look to strike at all. He wrestled him.

Vera was beating Silva in any exchanges. Silva won by TD and manhadling him with his roid muscles.

[NunyaBidness]

I agree with your point here Nunya, and it would have been a great counter point if Gustaffson fought the better strikers causing his numbers to be worse. However, Silva has fought the most elusive striker in the UFC (Machida) and other above average strikers (Rashad) whereas, Gustaffsons has been tagged by lesser strikers (Hamill). Yes, I know Gustaffsn fought Diabate who is a great striker himself.

The point that I was originally trying to make is that Gustaffsons striking defense is not the best in the world and he can be caught.

You're probably right about this matchup, I haven't looked into it in any detail since I missed the opener. But again, the evidence you're presenting is relating to analyzing the matchups themselves, and not actually the cold stats themselves. If every UFC fighter fought every other UFC fighter several times the data would begin to have some meaning.

Nunya, I always appreciate you playing devils advocate and bringing in your 'Asperger's' opinion

Someday, I hope to get wealthy enough doing this to hire someone to mop the drool off the keyboard for me.

[NunyaBidness]

Gustaf also beat Te Huna...who is a solid and very powerful striker.

IIRC Gustaffson beat Te Huna by barely surviving the four minutes in which Te Huna is dangerous.

[v1y]

yea gustafsson took himself down against te huna.

[Vitooch]

I wouldnt say Gus barely survived . Gus was never in any real danger.

I would still take James Te Huna and Hamill over Vera and Jardine any ******* day.

[NunyaBidness]

I wouldnt say Gus barely survived . Gus was never in any real danger.

You're probably right, I haven't rewatched the fight in forever.

[Vitooch]

Watching it now actually. Gus ate small shots from side control and a few elbows from his guard. His defensive BJJ was very solid overall.

[Rubber Guard]

Thiago has advantages
More accurate with his punches and gets tagged less. See the Fightmetrics.

Was this serious? Ol' 1 punch is accurate? He throws no combo's. Perhaps the numbers show that, but MMA numbers are almost useless. Thiago is a wild home run hitter. He is not accurate at all.