Cupcake didnt actually look very good in the first round of that last fight....yes he pulled off an amazing sub, but he also got tagged a lot in the first. If Hawn hits him tht many times I dont see Cupcake recovering as well. Hawn will be the bigger man and should be able to dictate wer the fight takes place. Only way Cupcake beats him is by "out-heartening" him as he is scrappy as hell!
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Yeah, compared to the murders row of Blown-up featherweight Pat Curran, Roger Huerta (
) and Josh Neer (actually not as bad a win as it was when he got it), Aoki's really been fighting some cans. Cmon man. You can't just think Eddie Alvarez is going to pull a Gilbert Melendez (consensus no. 3 and some say no. 2 lightweight in the world) on this guy...Also Aoki hasn't used fancy pants since then as I recall.
I won't be surprised by Aoki losing. But this is NOT a sure bet, no way. I'm taking Aoki at + odds in all honesty.
Woodard vs Hawn, does Woodard have the heart to pull another upset? I don't think he will. Hawn all day.Comment -
Surprised Weedman is getting the action...he's low key and with all these Brazilian strikers being hyped in Bellator I though Weedman would end up closer to -200 to -225 rangeComment -
Alvarez already to -280. Crazy. Thought odds were right at around -200.Comment -
Alvarez going to keep getting pounded here. Hopefully you guys took the -195 to -220 that were gifts. The only way Alvarez loses this fight is... 6minute mark.
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Maybe take the prop Aoki by receiving field goal to the nuts for insurance.
Put a towel on those nuts this fight is over.Comment -
time to make some big mma parlays, 4 events in the UFC alone in the next month. Not to mention some odds out on bellator and StrikeForce fights
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My BFC 66 Plays
Ticket#:68742903
Apr 20 08:05 PMINTERNET / -1 Apr 18 09:22 PM MU STRAIGHT BET
[24106] E ALVAREZ -250
(S AOKI vrs E ALVAREZ)500 / 200
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Not going as heavy as I initially planned on this match - wish I had your confidence kaladarus!!!
Yet I still think that eddie's got this... I truly believe as I analyzed earlier that the cage will really benefit ed's movement in this one. I just hope he avoids the ground at ALL costs... Employ gil's gameplan but don't play in aoki's guard on occasion as he did - otherwise you're fuckedddd! I do not think he has gil's sub defense nor near the type of transitional grappling. All in all I like the play, just not as heavy as I initially desired. Alvarez by UD.
Got another decent sized play pending for bfc 66 but waiting for my site to update the odds before I hit it.Comment -
My plays for Bellator 66 so far:
22 units on Alvarez @ -220 to win 10 units
10.5 units on Alvarez @ -210 to win 5 units
4 units on Vasilevsky @ +157 to win 6.28 units
2 units on Michel @ +188 to win 3.76 units
2 units on Vasilevsky/Hawn/Rogers @ +321 to win 6.42 unitsComment -
If the Alvarez line keeps getting hammered, I may have to make a play on Aoki.
And I hate the mutherf*cker.Comment -
Hahahaha. Aoki is such a creeper. When he got KTFOd by that kickboxer in the "MMA" round of their special rules fight I kinda lost a bit of faith in him.
I just think Alvarez is much more well rounded and in all likelihood the fight will go to decision. Aoki's only chance is a repeat of what he did 4 years ago, and I just don't see it happening against an Alvarez looking to rebound, in a cage, years after his mistake in the first fight.
As for Vasilevsky: I couldn't believe he opened as a dog, so I've decided to bet him aswell. Much more technical than Falcao. I bet on Falcao against Paraisy but he didn't look so great. I thought his cardio looked crap and he looked soft in comparison to his UFC fight. I'll take the + money here.
Also I think Michel has a much better chance to beat Weedman than the line suggests.
Hawn and Rogers should win handily.
We'll see this weekend though
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Alvarez has been on the record stating that he wanted a tuneup fight before the facing Aoki again. I'm a huge fan of both fighters, I can't imagine laying the juice on Alvarez here. Maybe I'm bitter because of how much he cost me in the Chandler fight.
Eddie's chin seems to be getting worse and worse as well. Maybe Aoki gives him a flash ko like everyone else has. Kidding. Sort of.Comment -
You bring up a good point, and I can understand why you wouldn't want to bet on him again so fair enough haha. I do agree that he has been wobbled a few times in recent memory... Chandler is a tough SOB though and I wouldn't hold it against Eddie too much haha.
If Aoki KO's Alvarez he should probably retire. I don't see it happening though :PComment -
Eddie Alvarez Interview.
Speaks on move to Blackzilians, Shinya Aoki, and Bellator contract update.
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/TRbR80DAMLA" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>Comment -
lol... I don't know if its just me, but when aoki gets ko'd it looks really funny to me. When he gets smashed there is something about it, I laugh out loud to my tv everytime - especially when he ate that knee you're talking about lol!!Hahahaha. Aoki is such a creeper. When he got KTFOd by that kickboxer in the "MMA" round of their special rules fight I kinda lost a bit of faith in him.
I just think Alvarez is much more well rounded and in all likelihood the fight will go to decision. Aoki's only chance is a repeat of what he did 4 years ago, and I just don't see it happening against an Alvarez looking to rebound, in a cage, years after his mistake in the first fight.
As for Vasilevsky: I couldn't believe he opened as a dog, so I've decided to bet him aswell. Much more technical than Falcao. I bet on Falcao against Paraisy but he didn't look so great. I thought his cardio looked crap and he looked soft in comparison to his UFC fight. I'll take the + money here.
Also I think Michel has a much better chance to beat Weedman than the line suggests.
Hawn and Rogers should win handily.
We'll see this weekend though
And yes, weedman being overvalued me thinks, although I still pick him to win.Comment -
I feel so nervous for this Eddie alvarez vs Aoki fight .. I feel like Aoki is gonna get a submission in round 2 or 3 ? I don't trust Alvarez to come in with a smart game planComment -
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Apparently Falcao was 14kgs (about 30lbs) heavier 24hrs ago... 24 hours to the weighing and the Maiquel this 14kg above of weight. All beneath control!! "With this expression, via micro-blog Twitter, Marcelo Brigadier, coach and manager of the athlete gaucho Maiquel Hawk, commented on the situation prior to weighing the athlete who fights next Friday in Cleveland, United States, one more step tournament of Bellator's Middle Weight.Maiquel (29v-d) will face Russian Vyacheslav "Slava" Vasilevsky (16v-1d) at Bellator 66, the semi-final of the tournament. Coming off a win over the French Norman Paraisy, the athlete spoke with blog IN GRIDS, the venue directly.Monitor the following:IN GRADES: As preparation for this second fight in the Tournament?Followed the same plan the first fight or something changed?Maiquel Falcao: I have great confidence in my team and my coach, Master Marcelo Brig. I followed your advice and am feeling very well for this fight. The schedule is changed for each fight, because each athlete has strengths and weaknesses that, in practice, we seek ways to overcome it.IN GRADES: The Vyacheslav "Slava" Vasilevsky has 15 straight wins in MMA. It can be regarded as the toughest opponent that you will face?Maiquel Falcao: I fought hard with many athletes, like Fábio Maldonado, Fabiano "Pega Leve" Scherner, Edson countryman, for example. In my career I have 37 fights and I think will be a tough fight, but nothing that I will not be used.IN GRADES: And how is the weight issue? Your coach, Marcelo Brigadier, posted a bit on Twitter that you're up to 14kg, but that is hardly the problem. How to lose that with only 24 hours for the official weigh?Maiquel Falcao: Actually, today I'm over the limit of 14kg category, but that's normal for me to stay with that weight missing a day for weighing. I can get well recovered.IN GRADES: So this Friday the fans of the Sport Club Pelotas ( Maiquel Hawk is the club sponsor Pelotas ) may have a joy in your victory?Maiquel HAWK: Yes, absolutely. I'm much better than the first fight of the tournament and this confrontation hope to surprise the Russian.Maiquel Hawk will soar with ECPelotas chest and well prepared to show here in Cleveland. The rest is God who decides.Comment -
V, you laying any money on Vavs at +140?Comment -
My thoughts on Falcao / Slava (Long read, as usual - sorry!)
I've been wanting to play falcao and I'm glad to have waited as his line keeps dropping. Yet I'll admit I researched this fight long and hard today and I'm not as confident as initially planned (which seems to be a trend in my betting haha).
They've both faced questionable comp. Slava's stand up has looked real good and while he's a judo / sambo practicioner by base, he seems to only use his grappling defensively for the most part, although against O'donnell it was all offense and I think that was more because Victor wasn't a threat off his back and was slowing down big time cardio wise.. His stand up looks great, but from what I have seen his opponents had very unimpressive stand up ability. Almost all were flat footed and seemed to be lost as Slava used nice footwork to pepper them up. If slava had more KO power in his hands I wouldn't be touching falcao... Not saying he doesn't have power, because he's dropped some dudes in the footage I've seen, but didn't finish. But overall he just doesn't seem to have the raw stopping power of a superior striker.
Its hard for me to get hyped on his striking when he's looked good doing so against guys who imo had questionable stand up (I don't think any of his opponents that I saw footage of have come from a striking background, as it appears most have their wins by submission or decision and they got owned by slava on the feet for the most part - here and there slava does get tagged, especially in the clinch or when he can't keep his opponent at a lengthy range. Outside of Xavier Foupa, who I think is a savat / kickboxing base, I don't think he's faced any real legit striker... and watch that fight on youtube - it was pretty competitive and foupa is no where near the skill set of big rig imo...).
Falcao on the other hand has stopping power. INterestingly, I learned he's a wrestler by base. He won 2 Brasilian national wrestling championships and while wrestling he got into boxing where he won 4 different belts on the Brazilian boxing circut. I don't know how prestigious or the names of these boxing orgs, but nevertheless, he comes from a sound boxing / wrestling background and picked up some wicked muai-thai and jitz to supplement his base game. He's a very complete fighter I feel...
Defensively his striking is not superb, he tends to get tagged in many fights I've seen. However, overall I feel he has a striking arsenal and finishing capability on the feet that I don't feel Slava has ever come close to seeing during his mma experience.
Its one thing to look good on the feet against guys who aren't known for knocking people the fudge out, but another to do it against a guy who can damage from the outside, or more importantly (as I think this is where big rig will def have a striking advatage), do wicked damage from the inside / close quarters slugging. Falcao has faced a plenty of kick boxing practitioners in his mma experience, and while they were mostly cans, they were at least strikers by trade unlike slava's comp - and big rig KO'd most of them minus his losses to maldonado (one of these maldonado fights was very competitive and a pretty weak stoppage from what I saw - surprised falcao didn't KO the ref lol). Technicality wise from the outside I give slava the edge standing... but overall power, striking diversity, past experience with strikers, and clinch striking / brawling / dirty boxing whatever you wanna call it, I give the edge to Big rig. On paper with respect to striking background and overall accomplishments I gotta lean falcao who's been doing it for the better part of a decade, both in and out of mma, compared to slava who's picked it up as part of his mma development (and admiteedly, slavla has picked it up very nicely and I'm impressed).
On the ground I do favor falcao, both on top and off his back. His tdd seems pretty legit, jitz ace neto had him down at times but big rig did some nice sweeps and stuffing before what it looked like to be a big time gassing in the 2nd round where he got subbed via kimura (his only sub loss against a grappling phenom). While O'donnell and others have been pounded on the ground with slava in top position, I'm very impressed with big rig's tdd and especially his scrambles - very nice sprawls, very nice sweeps, very nice transitions. He has solid tds as well and can do damage from top.
I also don't like the fact that foupa kept it pretty competitive on the ground against slava - he swept him twice from the bottom and got two tds on slava (Foupa also received two BS stand ups from the ref when he was working fine from top position in slava's guard, and probably would have stayed there and won first two rounds had it not been stood up). If slava is planning a ground game approach, I think its a bad idea as I feel big rig is much more powerful and skillful that foupa on the ground and slava had much trouble grappling with foupa up until they were both gassed in the 3rd and foupa easily gave up his back. That fightwith foupa was less than 2 years ago as well. I think both men have the capability to keep this fight standing so I am not looking too deep into the ground game and I don't think it will go there much unless big rig gasses in the 3rd and slava throws his ass down and pounds on his guard. Or if slava is owning big rig on the feet I think falcao def has the ability to take it down if he's not gassed. Overall considering how competitive foupa kept it on the ground I gotta like big rig as the superior grappler if it hits the mat.
Now my biggest concerns in liking big rig are his cardio and mentality. His cardio has looked questionable - in the neto fight he clearly gassed, seemed tired in both 3rd rounds against harris and pariasy. Furthermore, it looked like he could have finished both harris and paraisy on multiple occassions - yet he didn't. the dude seems to get agressive and go for the kill when he's getting hit, not when he's got his opponent in trouble... this is very strange to me.. He seems to be a loose cannon and not have the best fight IQ when it comes to the harris and paraisy fights. I'm also afraid of losing on a DQ lol... It hasn't happened before with big rig, but if you've seen some of his fights it should have def happened in a couple, especially some VT fight in Brasil where he literally kept poudning on a guy for another 15 seconds after the ref called it before people pulled him off the poor dude. I also think the paraisy fight was very dirty and both guys could have been DQ'd for all the extra blows being thrown after each round ended...
I think that if big rig's cardio is on point and its strong in the first 2 rounds I think he'll get a decision. I don't know that he'll stop slava. I def don't think slava is gonna stop big rig. Against lesser opponents slava hasn't shown me any type of impressive finishing ability. IN his last fight I was more impressed with O'donnell hanging in there (slava should have forced repeated stand ups instead of pounding away on top of O'donnell - I think he would have got a finish or stoppage if he would stand up and walk away from Victor's guard). Also when O'donnell was fresh he kept it even on the feet in the 1st round, got the tds, and won that round imo... If slava wins its by decision from possibly outpointing or gnp'ing a gassed big rig in the 2nd and 3rd round. I do feel though that falcao is the more proven striker and slava's nice boxing won't look as good as it has in past fights. I think big rig will bring striking aggression slavas never seen before and will win the first two rounds on points, hopefully get his first state-side stoppage, but I don't see it (although I give him a hell of a more chance to finish than I do slava).
All in all its a tough fight to call and I'm glad the odds are getting more close to even which is the correct line setting imo...
Because I feel both men are capable of keeping this standing, I have to favor the more accomplished and proven striker, and also what I feel is the more complete mma fighter. Slava looks good, real good, but against questionable comp. Same could be said about big rig, but much of his 'questionable' comp were strikers by base. I just don't think its slava's time yet. Dude has a ton of potential but I'm going with experience, agression and power. Falcao 29-28 UD. Gonna wait to see if the line drops more before I make a move, I'll post my play later.Comment -
Legz, you don't have to write a god damn novel. You could have fit that into three paragraphs lil dog. By the Way I am betting on the Russian, just layed down $120 at +120. I followed u on Alessio though, and I took Woodward at +225. All underdogs this weekend, haha. Going to do well or get my ass shut down. Prob the latter.Comment -
Boy Fedor is gonna whoop dat Brazillian ASS!Comment -
Going with Maiquel Falcao.Comment
