I don't know why more people aren't predicting Cain to clinch Mir against the cage and throw some bombs! Cain can sure as hell tire someone out from the clinch, imagine Mir after 3-4 minutes in the clinch with Cain.
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I think Cain wins and he may make it look easy.
That said I think Mir can win. And it is hard to throw that much juice on a guy who can get beat clearly by sub if it goes to the ground. And has been rocked a couple times in his career. Mir doesn't have great hands, and I think standing Cain KOs him. But Mir is at least decent standing....and almost all HWs have 1 punch KO power. Big powerful guys covering all aspects of MMA is hard to really predict. Mir can sub or could even catch Cain enough standing.
In the end I won't change my stance that Cain is a straight beast who is getting better and better because he was KO'd by JDS. Werdum was KO'd by JDS too and look where he is. Cain "should" be an even better version after all this gym time. He is a motivated guy and I feel he wants to get that title back bad. I think he imposes his power and pace. Or probably beats him in a standing fight.
The odds are always closer than they are listed in HW fights. Their power/weight/perhaps lack of cardio can make things a lot closer than they should be. The chance for the unexpected decreases the gap.Comment -
Frank Mir sucks. This is the worst matchup for him period. The guy has no stand up, rocked every fight. No cardio = against cardio machine. Only chance is submission which Cain will avoid getting into a bad spot.
+320 or whatever is right.Comment -
Frank Mir is a solid top 10 HW and you think he sucks? Sure he struggles with big wrestlers... but other than that I'd say he has an impressive resume and is underrated if anything.Comment -
In the last 4.5 years he has only lost to HUGE wrestlers. Carwin and Lesnar. He hardly sucks. I don't think he can be champ again, but he is a top 10 HW who offers skills. He did look bad vs Nog last time out but it doesn't define him.
Cain wins the fight, but Mir doesn't suck.
Mir's striking sucks you say but who has Cain outstruck? An injured Nog and Brock focking Lesnar? Wow he is pretty proven on the feet.
(I do think Cain has some solid boxing, but lets not act like he is a K-1 striker compared to Mir)Comment -
I still don't understand why people think Cain isn't just going to clinch Mir hard against the cage and punish him, because that's exactly how I see the fight playing outComment -
He could ... but Cain can do a lot of things en route to a W. Getting the most out of his agility, athleticism, and cardio seems like the best plan for him as those are his major advantages. Mir is a big body but w/o a strength advantage vs Cain. In the end I see Cain mixing it up enough to avoid precarious positions but still demoralizing & fatiguing Mir in the process. Mir wilts too quickly when he gets punched a lot, which is what I expect Velasquez to do. Keep the pace at a level Mir can't match, feet, clinch, mat, wherever.
I think using Kongo is pretty bunk, Cain was a lot greener when he fought Kongo, and Mir's punch was a product of Kongo looking TD but eating leather.Comment -
When exactly has Cains chin failed him in an MMA match? Unless it is located on the side of his head (where JDS hit him) i never saw anyone knock him out yet by hitting him on the chin.First off, I really enjoy reading the posts in this forum, you guys are way better cappers than I am, and it's nice to learn a few things! I do feel like I have some decent insight being that I have been into (organized)mma since it's birth in '93 and have met and trained with a lot of these guys. I'm just here to give my $0.02 and learn some stuff. In no way do I think I'm a great capper or math genius or system building champion, lol. But I have been right a few more times than not
Mir is in no way a dog by THAT much. His chin has never been his strong suit but neither has Cain's, considering JDS KOed him in 64 seconds. Mir and Cain are not even in the same damn sport when it comes to a SOLID BJJ BB in Mir and an accomplished wrestler in Cain. Mir has been looking better and better on his feet. KOing Nog and then taking his arm home with him in their second meeting. Mir won a majority decision over a very dangerous (a little old
) BJJ BB with decent tdd in Roy Nelson. He has really only had trouble, not with just wrestlers, but MASSIVE MAMMOTH MEN in Brock and Shane. Cain is a smaller HW but still very strong and agile. Tough to hit a moving target, but it can be done effectively with good timing. Something Mir is getting better at. His conditioning will be tested for sure in this fight if Cain is smart. Nobody in the HW division can keep up with Cain in a 5rd fight. His conditioning is the standard. Can Cain stay on the outside and outstrike Mir EFFECTIVELY? If he kicks, Mir will take him down and that is no bueno para Senor Velasquez. I think Cain CAN win this fight if he executes his game plan perfectly, but with these odds I give it to Mir in a "public eye upset."
Thoughts?
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I like Mir but which way do you guys think the line will move? I have a feeling I should hit it now but don't really want to tie up the money.Comment -
Cant see Mir's line getting much betterComment -
Maybe Mir's line falls by the weight in time, if he looks like in a very good shape, fast in the open trainnings... If you are so confident in Mir for this fight, its a good choice to hit it now. It will not getting better, 320 or -, so...Comment -
He got dropped multiple times by Kongo. If Kongo had anywhere near the ground game of Mir, that fight would've been over faster than Frank could say TAP OR SNAP!
It remains to be seen if Mir can touch Cain's chin. Cain is coming off of ACL repair but, preinjury, I'd say he's too quick to be a speedbag for Mir to touch that chin.
Mir's biggest weakness of being outmuscled by stronger wrestlers does not play into Cain's strength. However, Cain does have a significant cardio advantage, assuming his knee is healed, which is one of Frank's weaknesses deeper into the fight.
If it stays on the feet I don't see a significant advantage for Cain in his striking given his questionable chin and equilibrium. If it goes to the ground I don't see a significant advantage for anyone that isn't a 265+ roided out wrestler with excellent top control versus Mir.
How does that translate to implied odds? I can't really decide yet. There are still many ways for Cain to win this and fewer for Mir, but there are more question marks on Cain (health, mental psyche, chin, sub defense, etc.) to justify laying that much chalk. Looks like Mir or no play at these prices.Comment -
Somehow I just can't take Mir, who was doing the stanky leg off of a Nogueira 1-2, as a serious threat to Cain. Cain is faster and hits harder than Nogueira. I just don't see how Mir can take Cain down, and I don't see him lasting more than a round or two with Cains stand up or G&P. Cain by (T)KO 2nd round.Comment -
Best MMA Capper ...
My 3rd post on this site ...
Just wondering who the best MMA capper is?Comment -
This is an absolutley superb and perfect view of this fight.
Frank Mir is maybe the most unpredictable fighter in mma.
He could lose to an unranked wrestler or good puncher and look bad doing it or he could win the title with a little luck, if it gets to the ground for whatever reason.
The price is VERY enticing RIGHT NOW, but i suspect by fight time, Mir backers will be getting +200 to 250.
No matter, at that price or better, its worth a shot, on this chew your nails type scary fighter.Comment -
Question though, for those thinking Mir is worth play, how do you see him winning it?
Sub? KO?
because his tank will fade, and Cains wont. Which wont help him get the decision. Especially if it is a number one contenders match like im hearing, which i assume is going to be 5 rounds? With Franks new frame/cardio? I dont see him keeping the energy to dominate.
I think the safest bet in this fight is "fight wont go 5 rounds". I think if youre going for Frank, its either Sub, or if you think he has the chance to clip Cain, then an ITD bet. But i dont see Mir going the distance if he does win, which makes his +320 worthless for me, ill wait for props.Last edited by the josh; 03-21-12, 07:51 AM.Comment -
Only way I'd play Mir is to win in Round 1 I think. And yep would be very surprised if this went the distanceComment -
I thought number 1 contender fights were 5 rounds. Not in this case? Or is this not a number 1 contender match?Comment -
I believe 5 rounds came into play only for select main event of the evening matches.Comment
