UFC 145 (April 21 2012)

illmatick · 03-29-12, 10:54 AM

Not sure where he gets that from, only thing I can think of is Rory getting briefly staggered by Mike Guymon in the first round. Although if I remember correctly that was a punch to the temple.

Rory better everywhere, only worry is he gets complacent in the clinch with Mills. He has much better hands than Mill's imo

Vitooch · 03-29-12, 10:59 AM

Rory by submission may be a solid play

gabe · 03-29-12, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

What makes you think this? Not saying your wrong, I just haven't seen anything yet tht demonstrates this.

i suggest you watch his fights, i've seen him get hurt a couple times

bjpenn85 · 03-29-12, 02:04 PM

I have also seen him outclass nate diaz and carlos condit.

Vaughany · 03-29-12, 02:15 PM

Originally posted by gabe

i suggest you watch his fights, i've seen him get hurt a couple times

If anything the Guymon fight showed tht he has a decent chin and great recovery...it was a very solid shot and he managed to recover and armbar Guymon a minute later. Against Condit he simply got outworked and folded in last round...he took 2-3 minutes of brutal GnP and almost survived the round. If you said he has questionable stand-up defence and tends to get caught I might agree but I cant see anything that says he has a "not great chin".

Beelzebubzy · 03-29-12, 03:34 PM

Big Rory Mac fan here. I would def say he has not shown a weak chin. Getting a TKO on your wiki page to carlos condit is nothing especially considering this was his second UFC fight and was horribly gassed What I recall is him winning the first two rounds with a proven vet in Carlos. Moreover,before Carlos became a world class runner, he had KO power in all of his shots.

Rory has been able to out wrestle and out grapple all of his opponents thus far including Condit, Guymon, and Nate. I think Rory will out wrestle Mills if he wants to here.

Vaughany · 03-29-12, 03:47 PM

The fact tht Che Mills still trains in Gloucester also doesn't fill me with confidence that he can make the next step up. Whilst he's sparring with guys like Matt Ewin, Antanas Jazbutis, Mark "The Hand of" Godbeer, and Mark "Suplex" Allen, Rory Mac meanwhile is training at Zahabi's with a bunch of killers. I respect my fellow Brit's loyalty to their camps but I do feel that likes of Mills, Maguire and Hathaway are going to have to follow Pearson's, Young's, Pickett's, and Hardy's trail and branch out overseas eventually if they want to take the next step up.

Vaughany · 03-31-12, 11:04 AM

Vitooch · 03-31-12, 02:25 PM

I would not take either fighter at current odds, but I'm leaning towards Bocek if the line improves

Vaughany · 03-31-12, 02:32 PM

Cant see Bocek staying the underdog. I think Kalikas would of brought him out as slight favourite

Vaughany · 03-31-12, 02:42 PM

Kalikas just confirmed that he thinks he should be the slight favourite. I'd take Bocek now if I was gonna....I'm actually hoping Wiman ends up at +130 to +160 range...he's usually under-rated because he flies under the radar and does zero promotion!

Vitooch · 03-31-12, 02:49 PM

I still may take Bocek as a slight favorite. I just really like him in this matchup.

If I remember correctly he was able to take down Bendo. He should be able to take down Wiman and control him on top.

Vaughany · 03-31-12, 02:59 PM

Originally posted by Vitooch

I still may take Bocek as a slight favorite. I just really like him in this matchup.

If I remember correctly he was able to take down Bendo. He should be able to take down Wiman and control him on top.

Yeah he got Bendo down 2 or 3 times I think....keeping Wiman down should be easier than keeping Bendo down! He's probably done the best out of the recent guys who've faced Henderson.

Here's my random thoughts on this fight...

Wiman vs Bocek...

I expected Bocek to come out around about -120 favourite. If the betting public bet on Bocek as I expect they will then I'll play Wiman if he reaches +150 or better. Otherwise, I'll look at props such as Wiman by TKO/KO and Fight goes distance.

Key for either fighter is who gets the better of the wrestling - can Bocek get Wiman down and control position like he did against Lentz, or even work for a submission; or will Wiman get the takedown and work his relentless GnP like he did against Cole Miller. I think Wiman needs to incorporate a similar strategy to his fight against Magrinho - which was quite simply push forward, set a relentless pace and mix in strikng with takedowns and GnP. Doing tht against a guy of Bocek's calibre is not going to be easy tho! Bocek has shown that he is legit against Jim Miller in a fight he arguably won, and also he has probably put up the best fight out of anybody against Henderson in recent times. I have no doubts that Bocek can take Wiman down, question is whether he'll be able to control him like he did Lentz or whether he can get a sub. Wiman has shown solid sub defence in previous fights, although he perhaps hasn't faced anybody of Bocek's experiencel level or anybody tht offered the technical BJJ that Bocek possesses. Jim Miller is probably the biggest grappling threat he has faced but he stepped in on late notice (10 days) against Wiman and wasnt as aggressive as he usually is...he concentrated on getting takedowns and keeping position just to get the win. Bocek will be able to get takedowns...he took Henderson down a few times, and Wiman's wild style makes it easier to get the takedowns.

Wiman's advantages: Wiman's solid chin and ability to walk through punches and take a punch to give one. I also think he's a bigger threat in the striking realm - I can envisage Wiman dropping Bocek but cant really imagine Bocek hurting Wiman in the stand-up. The relentless pace he sets (cardio and endurance) and constant forward movement is another advantage - Bocek has faded late on in fights before, however in last couple fights he has shown better cardio, especially last fight against Lentz. However, Lentz didnt spend anytime on top of Bocek and also tired himself out from the numerous guillotine attempts...if Wiman can get some takedowns and spend some time on top Bocek will get tired. He has faded when under pressure in fights before (see Edgar and Danzig fights), and think it's vital that Wiman pushes forward and doesnt let Bocek dicate the action.

Bocek's advantages: Superior grappler - more technical, more calculated and strategic especially now with Zahabi in his corner. As the Lentz fight showed he was more about getting the takedown and establishing position and controlling rather than looking for subs.

I'd hope that Wiman and his coaches have studied the Lentz fight and realised that it may be counter-productive to try and latch on to subs against Bocek...especially the guillotine when getting taken down. Must of been three or four times where Lentz locked in the guillotine (one of his go-to moves admittedly) and squeezed tight for some time before Bocek pulled his head out. Not only did this tire Lentz's arms out but also gave up position and allowed Bocek to steal rounds with top-control. Being on your back with Bocek on top is never a position you want to be in and avoiding this situation will be key for Wiman if he wants to have a good chance of beating Bocek.

Wiman should also be able to get takedowns even if his wrestling isnt the best - it's functional enough and his tenacity is usually enough. As Bocek is BJJ orientated he will probably not put up too much resistance to takedown attempts and may look to work off his back or look for a guillotine (Wiman does offer up opportunities for guillotines - see end of second Danzig fight and the Siver fight where Siver quite smartly made Wiman re-think a couple of times because Siver locked in a guillotine posiiton whilst having his back against the cage). (guys like Bocek tend to automatically go back to their BJJ mindset and not worry to much about stopping the takedown because they are so confident in their BJJ off their back - The Miller brothers are two other guys that I feel sometimes give up the takedown so that they can look for the guillotine or work off their backs).

eligibletackle · 04-01-12, 11:30 PM

Don't think Bocek will allow Wiman to implement a similar plan as he did vs Cole Miller. Wiman has ways to win but don't think repeated takedowns is a likely one. Bocek's MMA wrestling is really good and think it's more plausible that Wiman/Jim Miller could play out, never found Wiman's TDD to be impressive and after seeing a 145er bully Cole Miller, Wiman's W over Cole looks a little less impressive.

Beelzebubzy · 04-03-12, 04:00 PM

Hey guys, my new opponent @ #ufc145 is John Alessio, Wiman is out with a knee injury. #mma

Vitooch · 04-03-12, 04:05 PM

Shit! Bocek was a play I was looking very forward to making

The HOFF · 04-03-12, 05:18 PM

MMAjunkie.com: John Alessio has replaced injured Matt Wiman and now meets fellow lightweight Mark Bocek later this month at UFC 145.

Mark Bocek -1000

Vaughany · 04-03-12, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

MMAjunkie.com: Mark Bocek has replaced injured Matt Wiman and now meets fellow lightweight Mark Bocek later this month at UFC 145.

Mark Bocek -1000

ha Bocek by decision for me!

MMAbetMASTA · 04-04-12, 12:00 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Macdonald as also shown questionable cardio in the Figueroa and Cariaso fights, although granted they were fast paced fights

These two fights with michael are crucial in my analysis...

Considering how close the cariaso fight was (many thought he should have won...), and how he couldn't finish figuerora and arguably lost the 3rd round, I have ot like torres. I think he is much, much better than both these guys and michael had trouble at points with both of them. He has the ground game to give michael problems to if it does hit the mat... I think michael will have an edge in stand up, but not a big one... Liking torres at this point, but that could change after I research more. I think the line is dead on thouh and near evens is correct...

Beelzebubzy · 04-04-12, 12:03 PM

Originally posted by The HOFF

MMAjunkie.com: John Alessio has replaced injured Matt Wiman and now meets fellow lightweight Mark Bocek later this month at UFC 145.

Mark Bocek -1000

< sarcasm > Dude, dont discuss the line before the line comes out. </ sarcasm >

Beelzebubzy · 04-04-12, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by MMAbetMASTA

These two fights with michael are crucial in my analysis...

Considering how close the cariaso fight was (many thought he should have won...), and how he couldn't finish figuerora and arguably lost the 3rd round, I have ot like torres. I think he is much, much better than both these guys and michael had trouble at points with both of them. He has the ground game to give michael problems to if it does hit the mat... I think michael will have an edge in stand up, but not a big one... Liking torres at this point, but that could change after I research more. I think the line is dead on thouh and near evens is correct...

I like Torres here. What I recall from Macdonald, is that his striking is raw and he might be getting bet on his KOed Soto and Torres has been finished before plus could be shopworn at this point.

Regarding size, Macdonald should have a significant advantage, but the fact that Torres grappled for three rounds with DJ would make me confident with playing Torres.

Thor4140 · 04-07-12, 02:26 PM

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DirtyX · 04-10-12, 04:08 PM

Jon Jones - I am laying down the huge amount of Juice regardless. Jones is going to own Rashad.

Brendan Schaub - Small play on Schaub. Prob. half the line.
Mark Bocek vs. Matt Wiman - I like Bocek in this, but too close to call imo

Michael McDonald vs. Miguel Torres - I bet the line on McDonald. Kid is young, hungry and is going to be a force at 135. Dangerous play, but I think he beats Torres via skill and youth.

Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin - Hominick Obviously, odds are too high though
Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills - Rory, but odds are also too high.
Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs - Pick em, but I think Brown has the edge standing.. Griggs has the advantage on the ground. Ill take Brown by KO round 1.

Vaughany · 04-10-12, 04:09 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

Jon Jones - I am laying down the huge amount of Juice regardless. Jones is going to own Rashad.

Brendan Schaub - Small play on Schaub. Prob. half the line.
Mark Bocek vs. Matt Wiman - I like Bocek in this, but too close to call imo

Michael McDonald vs. Miguel Torres - I bet the line on McDonald. Kid is young, hungry and is going to be a force at 135. Dangerous play, but I think he beats Torres via skill and youth.

Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin - Hominick Obviously, odds are too high though
Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills - Rory, but odds are also too high.
Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs - Pick em, but I think Brown has the edge standing.. Griggs has the advantage on the ground. Ill take Brown by KO round 1.

Wiman not fighting brah

THE_LOCKSMITH · 04-10-12, 07:05 PM

...

MMAbetMASTA · 04-10-12, 08:19 PM

Originally posted by DirtyX

Jon Jones - I am laying down the huge amount of Juice regardless. Jones is going to own Rashad.

Brendan Schaub - Small play on Schaub. Prob. half the line.
Mark Bocek vs. Matt Wiman - I like Bocek in this, but too close to call imo

Michael McDonald vs. Miguel Torres - I bet the line on McDonald. Kid is young, hungry and is going to be a force at 135. Dangerous play, but I think he beats Torres via skill and youth.

Mark Hominick vs. Eddie Yagin - Hominick Obviously, odds are too high though
Rory MacDonald vs. Che Mills - Rory, but odds are also too high.
Travis Browne vs. Chad Griggs - Pick em, but I think Brown has the edge standing.. Griggs has the advantage on the ground. Ill take Brown by KO round 1.

Yea my boy Dirty X up on SBR!!!!

This is my long time friend here fellas, aka dirty dickkk hahaaaaa....

He's an arrogant prick as you'll see, more so than I, but he knows his mma pretty well and we share the same local book account and have done well together with our plays over the last 18 months for the most part. We usually have similar plays and think alike on the fight game analysis, although we've gone head to head before, such as me playing story over he playing kapman, and he playing rumble like a dumb ass and me playing vitor as a tasty dog

haha....

Welcome, little dog. Glad to see you on here in the discussion. We're gonna make some money this weekend son!!!!

DirtyX · 04-10-12, 10:12 PM

Def. hoping to make some $$$ this weekend man. I love this site a lot more than Sherdog. I saw Wiman isn't fighting.. Didn't know that.. Anyways, where are we watching this card at this weekend?

Vaughany · 04-11-12, 06:46 AM

Latest Rory Mac blog:

While many of you reading this will have enjoyed the Easter weekend to the maximum, I wasn't quite so lucky. A fight against Che Mills on April 21 -- less than two weeks away now -- meant I had to cut out the Easter eggs and the overindulgence and instead keep my mind focused on what lies ahead.
As an alternative, I went to church and hung out with my second family on Sunday. We sat around the table and ate good food and, though I wasn't able to eat too much, it didn't annoy or frustrate me. I'm on a strict diet regime right now and know the benefits of sticking to it.
Sometimes I'll make up for this lack of good food after the fight. It depends on my cravings. Most people expect fighters to go crazy with food after a fight's done, because they've been dieting for so long, but that's not always the case. There have been many occasions when I've finished a fight and haven't wanted to eat anything afterwards. My body might have grown accustomed to dieting and not eating bad foods.
Anyway, Sunday also acted as my rest day and the chance for any little niggles and injuries to heal up. I needed that more than any chocolate. All in all, it was a pretty successful Easter.
I've got a pretty tough week ahead of me now, but for the most part, the toughest stage of training is now done and I'm just gearing up for fight week. I was sick for a couple of weeks, when everybody in the gym was fighting a cold, but I haven't let it impact my training or my progress. I still feel extremely strong and fit, despite having to shake off that cold along the way.
There are always bugs and illnesses going around the gym and that’s just something you have to deal with. Very few fighters will ever go through a camp completely unscathed. You'll either pick up some sort of cold or niggle. That's just the business we're in. If you feel 100 per cent and perfect going into a fight, there's a good chance you weren't training hard enough.
Luckily, this training camp has been one of my healthiest to date. Aside from the cold I mentioned, there has been very little else wrong with me during preparation. This has allowed me to knuckle down and work harder than ever for this fight.
With Easter now passed, I'm focusing solely on my fight with Mills on April 21. I will also be an interested observer when the UFC visits Sweden for the very first time this coming weekend. In particular, I'm very keen to watch my friend Francis Carmont fight. He was a major part of my training camp and we have spent a lot of time together over these last few weeks. He's a very, very good fighter, with a lot of potential in this sport. Not only do I expect big things from him in Sweden, I think he can do some major things in the UFC beyond this fight. I'd advise everybody to keep an eye on him.
The fight between Alexander Gustafsson and Thiago Silva is a very solid main event and a great crossroads clash. Gustafsson is the guy on the way up and Silva is somebody who may have already had his time. We'll probably find out whether that's true or not in this fight. If Gustafsson has aspirations of one day fighting for and maybe even winning the UFC world title, he needs to make a statement against Silva this weekend. There will be a lot of pressure on him fighting at home, but he seems mature enough to deal with it.
The co-main event between Brian Stann and Alessio Sakara should also be a really fun fight. I'll take Brian to win via decision or late stoppage, but I've always been a fan of Sakara's boxing style. He's very good with his hands, does everything by the book and also punches quite hard. Brian might be better in more areas, but Alessio is good enough to give him a few scares along the way.
After a recent dry patch of UFC events, it's great to have some events back in our lives. This one in Sweden will act as the ideal appetizer ahead of UFC 145 the following weekend, and all the inspiration I need to destroy Che Mills...

Beelzebubzy · 04-11-12, 02:13 PM

Jones inside Distance is now at -260

PunisherIND · 04-11-12, 02:45 PM

Originally posted by Beelzebubzy

Jones inside Distance is now at -260

its about time. it was sitting around -180 for weeks. that was a gift imo.

Beelzebubzy · 04-11-12, 03:03 PM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

its about time. it was sitting around -180 for weeks. that was a gift imo.

I concur. I grabbed like 4 or 5u between -172 and -180. I was getting worried on why this line didnt move.

Vaughany · 04-11-12, 03:09 PM

The sudden change will be because all the props are out for tht fight now like Jones by sub and Jones by TKO/Ko

sideloaded · 04-11-12, 05:59 PM

The HOFF · 04-12-12, 12:58 AM

Originally posted by PunisherIND

its about time. it was sitting around -180 for weeks. that was a gift imo.

Someone alerted to this a few weeks ago so I jumped on it. 9u to win 5u. Thank you to whoever did that.

sideloaded · 04-13-12, 01:28 AM

any books have evans wins by DQ?