5Dimes UFC parlay question

[cschoeny]

Hey guys,

I am new to online sports gambling and I'm really glad I found this awesome forum.

I just signed up for an account at 5Dimes, and I'm primarily interested in betting on UFC events. I see that the Reduced Juices lines aren't available for parlay bets or If bets.

I was thinking though that maybe I could just do a manual series of bets with the Reduced Juices on fight day that would be the equivalent of the If bets with the reduced juices. But this depends on when I am allowed to make my bets. Thus my question is would I be able to bet on one fight, and after seeing that result, bet on the next fight? Or does all of the betting have to be done before the fight card starts?

Thanks!

[NunyaBidness]

Hey guys,

I am new to online sports gambling and I'm really glad I found this awesome forum.

I just signed up for an account at 5Dimes, and I'm primarily interested in betting on UFC events. I see that the Reduced Juices lines aren't available for parlay bets or If bets.

I was thinking though that maybe I could just do a manual series of bets with the Reduced Juices on fight day that would be the equivalent of the If bets with the reduced juices. But this depends on when I am allowed to make my bets. Thus my question is would I be able to bet on one fight, and after seeing that result, bet on the next fight? Or does all of the betting have to be done before the fight card starts?

Thanks!

Yes, you can do this. 5dimes usually pays out winners quick so there is time to do it. Playing this way is actually superior to actual parlays.

The only disadvantage of this is that 5dimes reduced lines are $100 max, although they will limit you even farther on that if you're beating them.

[cschoeny]

Thanks for the quick response. This is great news.

Yes, you can do this. 5dimes usually pays out winners quick so there is time to do it. Playing this way is actually superior to actual parlays.

I don't need 5dimes to actually pay out winners right away, I just need to know that my bet hit.

The only disadvantage of this is that 5dimes reduced lines are $100 max, although they will limit you even farther on that if you're beating them.

I'm betting a decent amount less than that so I should be okay for now. Does that mean the risk is capped at $100 or the payout is capped? Either way, I'm betting a less than that so I should be okay for now.

One more question, so to use this strategy, would my bets be under the live-in play category even though the particular fight wouldn't have started yet? And if so is it more likely for the lines to change that close to fight time?

[NunyaBidness]

Thanks for the quick response. This is great news.



I don't need 5dimes to actually pay out winners right away, I just need to know that my bet hit.



I'm betting a decent amount less than that so I should be okay for now. Does that mean the risk is capped at $100 or the payout is capped? Either way, I'm betting a less than that so I should be okay for now.

One more question, so to use this strategy, would my bets be under the live-in play category even though the particular fight wouldn't have started yet? And if so is it more likely for the lines to change that close to fight time?

On 5dimes the payout is capped at $100, so +200 you can risk $100 to win $200, -200 you can risk $200 to win $100.

It wouldn't be under live betting, there is a special tab for 'reduced juice'.

[omalley21]

Nunya can you elaborate on this being better than parlays. I understand the jist of it, they take more juice on parlays i think, but I dont have a firm grasp of exactly how it works. Thanks.

[NunyaBidness]

Nunya can you elaborate on this being better than parlays. I understand the jist of it, they take more juice on parlays i think, but I dont have a firm grasp of exactly how it works. Thanks.

Well, on 5dimes they don't juice parlays, so you're okay on that front.

The problems with parlays are primarily:

1) Reducing your chance of getting the best price. If book A has the best price on event x and event y, but book B has a better price on event z. Bettors will frequently parlay all 3 at book A, reducing their total EV.

2) Money gets tied up longer, reducing your available bankroll if a better line becomes available.

3) Bad hedging causes players to reduce their own price. How many times have you seen it? Guy has fighter A and B parlayed, let's say at +200 each. Fighter A wins, so now players wants to lock up his win, so he bets Fighter B's opponent at -240. He congratulates himself on his win, but in reality all hes done is reduced the price he got on Fighter A.

4) Your variance is increased, requiring a larger bankroll to make the same earn rate. The additional volatility may cause you to make bad decisions.

Good reasons to use parlays:

1) Correlation. This doesn't come up in MMA very often, but if you could find a book that would let you make correlated parlays you would get rich quick (i.e. a LNP wrestler vs a guy with huge KO power, parlaying the wrestler with the over and the KO guy with the under).

2) To circumvent limits. Often times books will allow you to parlay events that you've already maxed. If that leg is significantly +EV, you can parlay with slightly -EV events and increase your overall EG.

3) Utility function. Sometimes its worthwhile to make suboptimal bets in order to massively increase bankroll, when the resulting bankroll would make an impact in your life, but losing the present bankroll would have very small effect. The current depositing climate in the US probably qualifies.

Hope that makes sense.

[Educ8d Degener8]

Nunya been reading...




Nerd.

[NunyaBidness]

I nerdily recommend this book instead:

http://www.amazon.com/Statistics-People-Think-They-Hate/dp/1412979595/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1328726506&sr=8-2