UFC on 2 Fox , bet of the night

**gabe** · 01-27-12, 04:51 PM

i agree

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 05:05 PM

Originally posted by Moffegrev

Found this pearl on 5dimes:

Bisping +3,5 to the odds 2,75.

I mean, the likelihood of Sonnen knocking Bisping out must be so close to zero that we can rule it out. Chael Sonnen submitting Bisping, ok, he submitted Stan (which is completely green on the ground, and lack octagon experience in comparison to Bisping), then we have the last third option, Sonnen getting a 10-8 round. With his pillow fists - come on!

I don't think you understand what this bet is.

**5mike5** · 01-27-12, 05:17 PM

not a good bet at all

sonnen by sub. +700

**Moffegrev** · 01-27-12, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I don't think you understand what this bet is.

Judges Scorecard Sonnen wins by decision, 30-27, +3,5 means that Bisping will win with 30-30,5, which will give me the win.

In case he should win inside the distance, it´s also considered a win. Do you have some other idea of what this bet means, go ahead and give your explanation.

**Moffegrev** · 01-27-12, 05:27 PM

Originally posted by 5mike5

not a good bet at all

sonnen by sub. +700

Come on, he subbed Brian Stan, he´s not exactly a wiz on the ground, but he rather looked like a beetle off his back.

**Vaughany** · 01-27-12, 05:47 PM

Bisping's ground game is continually overlooked. Only way Sonnen subs him for me is if he somehow drops him with a punch and follows up with a rear-naked or something

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 05:57 PM

Originally posted by Moffegrev

Judges Scorecard Sonnen wins by decision, 30-27, +3,5 means that Bisping will win with 30-30,5, which will give me the win.

In case he should win inside the distance, it´s also considered a win. Do you have some other idea of what this bet means, go ahead and give your explanation.

Nope, you have no idea what it means.

Let me ask you, which single judge do you think they're going to pick to place the bet on?

**Vaughany** · 01-27-12, 06:03 PM

It's based on the cumulative score of all three judges' scorecards brah

**Educ8d Degener8** · 01-27-12, 06:16 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

It's based on the cumulative score of all three judges' scorecards brah

This.

Also, Moffegrev -- what's your MMA Win Rate brah?

**Vaughany** · 01-27-12, 06:17 PM

**5mike5** · 01-27-12, 06:20 PM

Originally posted by 5mike5

not a good bet at all sonnen by sub. +700

i misread the thread

i like this as a underdog "value" bet, not my overall easy winner "best" bet...anybody can take heavy ML mma winners all day and get a good record...

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 06:20 PM

You guys are way too nice to these dummies.

I mean if you think a site is going to lay you + money that a guy in a competitive fight will not lose by worse than 30-27. You need to pull back a little and think "what am I missing?"

Originally posted by Moffegrev

This odds really seem to have value in my eyes, i mean, he basically just needs to come out of the fight alive for it to be winning, what are your opinions?

**omalley21** · 01-27-12, 07:08 PM

Sonnen by decision -130 for me.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 07:38 PM

This prop actually opened at Sonnen -3.5 -150 which I thought was a good play.

**GunShard** · 01-27-12, 07:49 PM

Sonnen will take him down to the ground, like he does against any striker.

**Moffegrev** · 01-27-12, 08:02 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

You guys are way too nice to these dummies.

I mean if you think a site is going to lay you + money that a guy in a competitive fight will not lose by worse than 30-27. You need to pull back a little and think "what am I missing?"

I think you´re missing the whole point of the bet. Sonnen is a huge favourite, righteously, but he´s not a finisher, and therefore I see great value in the bet. If it would have been 5 rounds, it wouldnt, but in a three round fight vs someone who´s hardly ever finished someone in the ufc.

Yeah I do think this bet has a lot of value at the current odds, and besides stupid oneliners from you, I´ve seen nothing from you proving me wrong. So unless you got something substantially to bring to the table, stfu.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 08:05 PM

Originally posted by Moffegrev

I think you´re missing the whole point of the bet. Sonnen is a huge favourite, righteously, but he´s not a finisher, and therefore I see great value in the bet. If it would have been 5 rounds, it wouldnt, but in a three round fight vs someone who´s hardly ever finished someone in the ufc.

Yeah I do think this bet has a lot of value at the current odds, and besides stupid oneliners from you, I´ve seen nothing from you proving me wrong. So unless you got something substantially to bring to the table, stfu.

They just get dumber and dumber.

If the fight is scored 30-27 for Sonnen, your bet LOSES, it doesn't win like you think for some reason.

You really shouldn't gamble on things you don't understand.

**Moffegrev** · 01-27-12, 08:07 PM

Hmm, or wait, did i **** up big time? Unless it means that you sum up the score cards, and divide it by the three judges the bet really sucks.

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 08:08 PM

That's what I'VE BEEN SAYING!!!!!!

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 08:08 PM

30-27, 30-27, 30-27 =

90 - 81

plus your +3.5

=

90 - 84.5

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 08:10 PM

Basically, these +3.5 bets are good for if you think a fight will be scored 29-28s across the board against you.

-3.5 bets are good for when you think it's likely to be a unanimous 30-27 decision but want some hedging because there is a decent chance your guy pulls off the finish.

**Moffegrev** · 01-27-12, 08:12 PM

Oh ****, then that bet sucks ass, sorry for flaming you dude. I had a different interpretation of that bet. There go those 100€ right in the toilet.

****!

**NunyaBidness** · 01-27-12, 08:16 PM

It's not totally dead. If Bisping wins one round on all 3 judges scorecards you've got a shot. If Bisping subs him, you've got a win too.

You also might be able to talk to support and cancel the bet, explaining that you didn't understand what they meant. If the line hasn't moved they MIGHT be gracious enough to do it.

**Moffegrev** · 01-27-12, 08:31 PM

well, not gonna happen. Might counter bet it to take a small loss instead.

**Wanna Bet On It?** · 01-27-12, 10:32 PM

Yeah, the play's Chael -3.5.

Chael's never lost a round in the UFC - and no this isn't Chael trolling. Look it up. He either gets subbed or he wins on points 30-27x3 (aside from his most recent Stann sub win). So Chael -3.5 >>> Chael straight up at twice the return.

I've already bet 1u and will bet a bit more, likely within a parlay.