UFC on FX 2: Alves vs Kampmann

[The HOFF]

Date: Mar 03, 2012
Location: Sydney, Australia
Venue: Allphones Arena
Broadcast: FX and FUEL TV

• Thiago Alves vs. Martin Kampmann
• Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall (flyweight-tourney semifinal)
• Joseph Benavidez vs. Yasuhiro Urushitani (flyweight-tourney semifinal)
• Court McGee vs. Constantinos Philippou
• Aaron Rosa vs. James Te Huna
• Nick Penner vs. Anthony Perosh
• Jared Hamman vs. Kyle Noke
• Robbie Peralta vs. Mackens Semerzier
• Cole Miller vs. Steven Siler
• Jake Hecht vs. T.J. Waldburger
• Shawn Jordan vs. Oli Thompson

[The HOFF]

Thiago Alves -110
Martin Kampmann -120

Really like Alves at the opening line here. Kampmann is well rounded but has folded against power strikers like Marquardt and Daley

[Jordan23]

It will definitely be a good stand up battle. I'd really like to see Alves work those powerful leg kicks.

[Beelzebubzy]

Kampmann might try and wrestle this one.

[proposition joe]

Big on Alves here.

[Vaughany]

Gotta like Alves here...tough to finish, more power, will throw more leg-kicks...see him gettin a decision

[gabe]

His wrestling worked against Rick Story, which surprised me, so I wouldn't count it out!

[Vaughany]

His wrestling worked against Rick Story, which surprised me, so I wouldn't count it out!

Didn't surprise me, whole reason I took Kampmann was based on the hope that he'd learn from the Canchez fight and fight smarter and look for his trip-takedowns as Story's wrestling defence is not the same level as his offensive wrestling (and fortunately he did). Alves on the other-hand has better wrestling defence as he's a more technical striker (and all-round technical fighter) who doesn't come charging forward wide-open throwing bombs like Story does. Alves is also pretty strong in the clinch - which would be where Kampmann would look for a trip-takedown (as you're unlikely to see Kampmann looking for a single or double leg shot).

[Hannibal]

He's not taking down alves.
with the way Kampmann fights, his game plan is probably to play the outside game and outpoint alves to a decision. Unfortunately the judges will not likely see the significant shots landed by kampmann and he'll probably lose even if he wins.

[The HOFF]

Legacy Fighting Championships middleweight titleholder Andrew Craig (6-0 MMA, 0-0 UFC) has replaced injured Jared Hamman (13-4 MMA, 2-3 UFC) and now meets fellow middleweight Kyle Noke (19-5-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC) at March's UFC on FX 2 event.

UFC officials today announced the switch.

[The HOFF]

Benavidez -600?

[Vitooch]

bump...I may take a stab at Alves

[bipolar]

i dont know about this main event boys, two great strikers... i give the pure kickboxing edge to alves but kampmann is a solid striker himself... kampmann i feel is stronger in the clinch and wrestling.... both are tough mofos, especially kampmann... i hate betting against kampmann, i feel hes the top WW gatekeeper in the UFC...

I would love to make a play on this fight but I don't see much value in the line either way...

i think its best to stay away from this one...

[bipolar]

correction, both guys are strong in the clinch...

[bipolar]

Thiago Alves -110
Martin Kampmann -120

Really like Alves at the opening line here. Kampmann is well rounded but has folded against power strikers like Marquardt and Daley

Interesting point, i like this type of thinking... Kamp fought nate at 185, so he was at a huge size disadvantage considering nate is a huge 185.... and alves is a big WW... the size and power difference mabye significant here..

I think since alves wil have the standup advantage, wrestling is key here... kampmann has always had underrated wrestling and he showed it against story... he may try to wrestle alves but this could leave him tired and vulnerable to strikes as alves will stuff kampmann takedowns being that he has great takedown defence and will be the bigger stronger fighter... alves can also get up off his back...

I was thinking of staying away from this fight, but I'm leaning towards alves after more thought..

[bipolar]

perhaps the best play is this fight to end in decision? both fighters have solid defensive striking and are tough as **** in general...

[Vaughany]

i dont know about this main event boys, two great strikers... i give the pure kickboxing edge to alves but kampmann is a solid striker himself... kampmann i feel is stronger in the clinch and wrestling.... both are tough mofos, especially kampmann... i hate betting against kampmann, i feel hes the top WW gatekeeper in the UFC...

I would love to make a play on this fight but I don't see much value in the line either way...

i think its best to stay away from this one...

I got Alves at the opener (evens) because I expected he'd get more action. But as you say I hate betting against Kampmann. My first ever proper bet was on Condit against Kampmann and from then on I've always respected him and like to play him (especially when he's the underdog)..made me some nice money as dog against Story. I do think Kampmann is the better, more refined overall grappler...I couldnt imagine Thiago Alves dominating P.Thiago in the grappling for three rounds, or choke out Jacob Volkmann like Kampmann did. As I said in my prediction for the Kampmann/Story fight, the key to Kampmann beating Story was to beat Story at his own game by getting the odd trip takedown and controlling on top to steal rounds with his underrated grappling. My whole bet was based on the assumption tht he'd do this and luckily he did after getting rocked early on. The difference is tho that Alves is not wild and overly aggressive like Story. Alves is more methodological and technical, he won't get carried away with charging forward and throwing predictable overhand rights. His take-down defence as we know is also pretty solid. His stocky build and strength in the clinch will make it hard for Kampmann to get the bodylock/trip-takedowns. Also find it hard to imagine Alves getting guillotined because he's hardly got a neck! Unlike Story, Alves will also throw a lot more leg kicks as well that could be the difference in getting the nod from the judges.

[Vaughany]

perhaps the best play is this fight to end in decision? both fighters have solid defensive striking and are tough as **** in general...

Probably, but it's -300 at moment which is a bit steep to play straight up. Have got it in a one or two parlays tho

[bipolar]

I got Alves at the opener (evens) because I expected he'd get more action. But as you say I hate betting against Kampmann. My first ever proper bet was on Condit against Kampmann and from then on I've always respected him and like to play him (especially when he's the underdog)..made me some nice money as dog against Story. I do think Kampmann is slightly better grappler. As I said in my prediction for the Kampmann/Story fight, the key to Kampmann beating Story was to beat Story at his own game by getting the odd trip takedown and controlling on top to steal rounds with his underrated grappling. My whole bet was based on the assumption tht he'd do this and luckily he did after getting rocked early on. The difference is tho that Alves is not wild and overly aggressive like Story. Alves is more methodological and technical, he won't get carried away with charging forward and throwing predictable overhand rights. His take-down defence as we know is also pretty solid. His stocky build and strength in the clinch will make it hard for Kampmann to get the bodylock/trip-takedowns. Unlike Story, Alves will also throw a lot more leg kicks as well that could be the difference in getting the nod from the judges.

All good points... but you summed it up well, i hate betting against kampmann, hes well-rounded, tough and always game....

There must be a better spot for our money on this card than this fight, dont you think?

[bipolar]

On 5dimes, I like alves by decision +129... opinions?

[Vaughany]

All good points... but you summed it up well, i hate betting against kampmann, hes well-rounded, tough and always game....

There must be a better spot for our money on this card than this fight, dont you think?

A couple undercard fights Im interested in...have to wait and see what the lines are tho

[Vaughany]

On 5dimes, I like alves by decision +129... opinions?

If I hadnt got him straight up at Evens I'd probably be playing tht. But I'd be waiting for props to open elsewhere...depends what sites u have access to. Couple Euro sites might have Alves by decision at +150 or something

[Hannibal]

got Alves at -120
and got kampmann dec at +213 on 5dimes

[Wanna Bet On It?]

Thoughts?

[Vitooch]

Very close fight for me but leaning Cos based on whom both guys beat.

Ill take Hamman and Rivera over Dongi and Jensen anyday

[Vaughany]

Did Mcgee open as dog?

[bjpenn85]

from what i can see yes.

[gabe]

I think the fight ends under 2.5 rounds, likely Alves by KO.

[MMAbetMASTA]

My UFC on FX 2 Plays
Ticket#:66137674
Mar 02 10:00 PM
INTERNET / -1 Feb 26 01:06 PM
MU
STRAIGHT BET
[24555] I MCCALL +290
(I MCCALL vrs D JOHNSON)

50 / 145
---------------------
Ticket#:65429369
Mar 02 10:30 PM
INTERNET / -1 Feb 13 08:34 PM
MU
STRAIGHT BET
[24551] T ALVES -135
(T ALVES vrs M KAMPMANN)

135 / 100

Starting to like alves more than I initially thought when I placed this the other week. I'll Probably put a lot more on him after I do a bit more research. No way I see kapman beating him in a prolonged stand up fight, which is what I think we'll see.

Also like the value on uncle creepy - mighty mo will probably be too fast and I think his wrestling is a small notch above ian's, but at +290 that is just crazy and mighty is being overvalued imo. Ian is also pretty big at 125 and his hands have developed very nicely during his most recent run. He could sprawl and brawl and perhaps even change levels later in the fight and sneak in a few tds ala brad pickettt. Paper pick is mighty mo but you're crazy to pay that juice imo.

[gabe]

Any Andrew Craig fight vids?

[Vaughany]

One of his amateur fights... http://www.purefight.org/coverage/23...s-andrew-craig

Schambari fight... http://mmajunkie.com/news/26554/hdne...fighting-8.mma

[gabe]

thanks- what do u make of his fight vs noke?

[abe74]

On 5dimes, I like alves by decision +129... opinions?

This would be my pick for this fight.

[Vaughany]

ha Gabe's brother Abe?!

[abe74]

ha Gabe's brother Abe?!

No, I don't know Gabe.