Ninja's MMA Plays

Vaughany · 10-27-11, 12:50 PM

Welcome Ninja! Some good plays there - Big Country/Cro-Cop Starts Rnd 2 is one that I like a lot and putting in a couple parlays. Similar to the Aldo/Florian Starts Round 2 from 136

Baqu · 10-27-11, 03:15 PM

Hi NinjaDMP

Hope you'll manage to be on plus, and then counting the record could be just a pleasure.

take care

and good luck

btw - what's your bankroll ?

snake11eyes · 10-27-11, 06:24 PM

Nice job getting Mitrione at close to even. I love that play even at -135, I have a lot riding on that as well. However, I don't like the downes play. I just can't bet on that guy for some reason.

Giblets · 10-27-11, 06:35 PM

"Big Country vs Cro Cop to complete 2 rounds 5u to win 3.85u
Cro Cop 1u to win 1.90 hedged with Nelson by 3 round dec 1u to win 2u"

I think Cro Cop is going to come out fairly aggresive in this fight after acknowledging some boring past performances and I think there's a very good chance that Nelson will knock out Cro Cop so I couldn't disagree more with these plays. A Nelson win hedged with a Cro Cop decision I think is the way to go. I also like BJ and Cerrone but I like the Roop play though, I think it's good value. GL Ninja!!!

NinjaDMP · 10-29-11, 01:59 PM

Originally posted by Giblets

"Big Country vs Cro Cop to complete 2 rounds 5u to win 3.85u
Cro Cop 1u to win 1.90 hedged with Nelson by 3 round dec 1u to win 2u"

I think Cro Cop is going to come out fairly aggresive in this fight after acknowledging some boring past performances and I think there's a very good chance that Nelson will knock out Cro Cop so I couldn't disagree more with these plays. A Nelson win hedged with a Cro Cop decision I think is the way to go. I also like BJ and Cerrone but I like the Roop play though, I think it's good value. GL Ninja!!!

Yeah, Nelson could knock him out, but I think Cro Cop's technical enough to avoid Roy's boxing, it has never impressed ME much. After seeing the weigh-ins I think Mirko may have finally got himself where he needs to be once again. Looked like he was having a lot of fun with Barry and he had an interesting interview where he broke down the realization that fighting is his life, he loves it, and he doesn't have much longer left doing it... if you've followed him his last few fights you'll know this is a change in attitude, I hope for the better.

I also feel like Mitrione is going to go right through Kongo, I think his strength and athleticism are enough to fight off Chieck's takedowns/ground and pound and his hand and foot speed is going to give Kongo all kinds of trouble standing. Also, Kongo took a beating against Barry even though he came out on top, wasn't all that long ago IMO.

Also feeling good about my Diaz bet, BJ is at his shoulders, I think nick's jab and length are going to play a big factor. I see him out working BJ in the second and third. I think Nick wins the timing battle boxing and can be out of range when BJ swings. I have a lot of respect for BJ's takedowns and I realize that may give him an edge in a decision but he still has to get to Diaz to implement any of his takedowns, he won't be shooting a power double from outside. Just checked and looks like I should've waited on the Diaz bet, oh well.

Adding:
Cro Cop 1u to win 1.9
Mitrione vs Kongo won't complete 1 full round 1u to win 2.2u
Mitrione inside the distance 5u to win 12.50 (Missed this line by a couple secs when it came out at +400)

NinjaDMP · 11-01-11, 11:21 AM

Originally posted by NinjaDMP

UFC 137:
Nick Diaz 15.46u to win 14.72
BJ vs. Diaz to complete 2 full rounds 5u to win 2u
Big Country vs Cro Cop to complete 2 rounds 5u to win 3.85u
Cro Cop 1u to win 1.90 hedged with Nelson by 3 round dec 1u to win 2u
Mitrione 20u to win 18.51
Jorgensen by dec 2u to win 1.11
Roop 2u to win 6.5u
Jacoby vs Starks completes 2 full rounds 1u to win .87u
Danny Downes over Nijem 2u to win 3.1u
Siver over Cerrone 2u to win 4.3u
Camozzi vs. Carmont completes 2 full rounds 1u to win 1.6u

and a 6 fight, 5u parlay with Mitrione and Diaz from this card

Adding:
Cro Cop 1u to win 1.9
Mitrione vs Kongo won't complete 1 full round 1u to win 2.2u
Mitrione inside the distance 5u to win 12.50 (Missed this line by a couple secs when it came out at +400)

Plays I added after posting:
Griffin Palaszewski won't complete 2 rounds 1u to win 3u
Vera vs Marshall completes 2 rounds 4u to win 2.58u

Bellator:
Askren Hieron won't complete 3 rounds 1u to win 3.25

TOTALS:
UFC 137: -10.27u
Bellator: -1u

In hindsight Downes was a shitty bet, I felt like Nijem would leave more holes for sub attempts, I thought Downes would apply more pressure with subs, he showed a flash with the inverted triangle but couldn't seem to get any more transitions/scrambles going. Ramsey's top game looked really good to me.

Mitrione disappointed me, I thought he would move better and have an advantage stand-up timing. Kongo's striking looked better to me than it has in his past couple of fights, his timing really seemed to be on. I also thought meat would have the strength/athleticism advantage but Kongo ripped him down with ease. I gotta question the game plan when he was going for the sloppy subs underneath (rolling for the knee without securing the leg) against someone like Kongo who is known for powerful ground and pound, should've been looking to get the **** up and not eat punches, IMHO.

Roop was a good bet, I'd lay it again. I had it 29-28 Roop with Hioki taking the second, the first was close, I admit.

Cerrone looked powerful as ****. I thought Siver had the stand up to bang with him and a slight edge in wrestling (see the Sotiropolous fight) that made the bet worth the odds, definitely overlooked Cowboys power/aggression as well as his ever evolving defensive wrestling.

I think as the striking in MMA evolves fighters height/length and reach are going to start playing a larger role in deciding the outcome of fights.

Giblets · 11-01-11, 11:30 PM

Good call on Diaz Ninja, saved you from a really really bad night. You made some good calls with the length of fights. I was pretty choked too when Roop didn't get the decision not that it was a robbery by any means. Oh and I have to mention the fact that both your picks that you didn't post won, looks like Gabe's record keeping is rubbing off on people here!!!

Vaughany · 11-02-11, 02:54 AM

Originally posted by Giblets

Good call on Diaz Ninja, saved you from a really really bad night. You made some good calls with the length of fights. I was pretty choked too when Roop didn't get the decision not that it was a robbery by any means. Oh and I have to mention the fact that both your picks that you didn't post won, looks like Gabe's record keeping is rubbing off on people here!!!

His Bellator play didnt win tho

NinjaDMP · 11-02-11, 08:56 PM

Lol I read that thread right before I posted and it had me questioning whether or not to put em up, but at the end of the day im not trying to be Internet famous and my first post clearly said FADE so technically anyone following should be up anyway

in the future I'll def make more of an effort to get my plays up, and promise to keep any gabe like luck to myself.

NinjaDMP · 11-04-11, 12:01 PM

UFC 138:
Munoz 26u to win 10u
Cope 5u to win 8.75u
Perosh 5u to win 15u
Young 5u to win 13u

Parlays:
Thiago Alves, Cariaso 5u to win 5.37u
Chris Cariaso, Pickett 5u to win 10.94u
~~GSP~~, Munoz, Cain, Weidman 5u to win 13.66u
Munoz, Dan Henderson, Cain 6u to win 20.24u

Still waiting on round and fight props at my book, will most likely be adding.

NinjaDMP · 11-05-11, 11:25 AM

Munoz Leben completes 3 rnds. 5u to win 5.75uj
and hedged a little with Leben inside the distance 5u to win 12.5u

NinjaDMP · 11-06-11, 01:08 PM

Originally posted by NinjaDMP

UFC 138:
Munoz 26u to win 10u
Cope 5u to win 8.75u
Perosh 5u to win 15u
Young 5u to win 13u

Parlays:
Thiago Alves, Cariaso 5u to win 5.37u
Chris Cariaso, Pickett 5u to win 10.94u
~~GSP~~, Munoz, Cain, Weidman 5u to win 13.66u
Munoz, Dan Henderson, Cain 6u to win 20.24u

Still waiting on round and fight props at my book, will most likely be adding.

Munoz Leben completes 3 rnds. 5u to win 5.75u
and hedged a little with Leben inside the distance 5u to win 12.5u

Finished up slightly for UFC 138.

TOTALS:
UFC 137: -10.27u
Bellator 57: -1u
UFC 138: +5.37u

Total: -5.9u