Should I Go All In on GSP's Next Fight??

JuicedUp · 10-16-11, 12:19 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

any chance he loses to condit??

yes. don't go all in, bra.

sirchadwick1 · 10-16-11, 12:19 AM

I don't suggest going all in in MMA ever. All it takes is one bad cut, bad judging, unnoticed eye poke, wonkey ref, or one big shot to screw your night.

Also going all in can be addictive when you hit a few times... and you won't hit forever. Then you're broke.

Condit will most likely get wrestlefvcked to a ud loss here.... but he does have ways to win with his slick rubber guard and solid striking. Just be smart and bet your usual size play. GSP is no lock.

brahmabull117 · 10-16-11, 12:27 AM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

I don't suggest going all in in MMA ever. All it takes is one bad cut, bad judging, unnoticed eye poke, wonkey ref, or one big shot to screw your night. Also going all in can be addictive when you hit a few times... and you won't hit forever. Then you're broke. Condit will most likely get wrestlefvcked to a ud loss here.... but he does have ways to win with his slick rubber guard and solid striking. Just be smart and bet your usual size play. GSP is no lock.

realistically speaking, does Condit have a 1 in 4 chance of winning this fight??

GunShard · 10-16-11, 01:12 AM

If I had to go all in on MMA this year it would be Jones against Evans.

I would avoid Silva against Sonnen. Sonnen knows about Silva's weak ground game.

GunShard · 10-16-11, 01:14 AM

You should dump your money on the Packers money line against the Rams instead of GSP against Condit. Definitely a lock bet.

gabe · 10-16-11, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

You should dump your money on the Packers money line against the Rams instead of GSP against Condit. Definitely a lock bet.

lol yea at -1200

sirchadwick1 · 10-16-11, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by brahmabull117

realistically speaking, does Condit have a 1 in 4 chance of winning this fight??

I would say so... yes. It wouldn't shock me.

Kaladarus · 10-16-11, 08:21 AM

Take GSP by decision. He couldn't finish Condit or any other top 10 WW if he was given 20 rounds.

scofflaw · 10-16-11, 08:25 AM

It's not smart to bet against GSP, but I think he has a greater chance of losing this fight than any in his recent history. So far the only wager I like is small, fight won't go 5 (+170)

dww123 · 10-16-11, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

If I had to go all in on MMA this year it would be Jones against Evans.

I would avoid Silva against Sonnen. Sonnen knows about Silva's weak ground game.

R U serious or joking? I can't tell. 1.Evans isn't fighting Jones, Machida is. 2. Sonnen was submitting by Silva on the GROUND.

Vaughany · 10-16-11, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by dww123

R U serious or joking? I can't tell. 1.Evans isn't fighting Jones, Machida is. 2. Sonnen was submitting by Silva on the GROUND.

Can never tell with this dude!

sirchadwick1 · 10-16-11, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by dww123

R U serious or joking? I can't tell. 1.Evans isn't fighting Jones, Machida is. 2. Sonnen was submitting by Silva on the GROUND.

I think he's just talking about how easily Sonnen can put Silva on his back. I think its pretty obvious Sonnen will go with the same gameplan with more awareness this time.

v1y · 10-16-11, 03:24 PM

Condit is a better striker than GSP and has a route to victory.

Do i think it's likely? No. But it's possible.

proposition joe · 10-16-11, 03:28 PM

Condit will look to finish GSP and be more capable of doing so than any of St. Pierre's recent opponents. I think GSP wins, maybe even gets a finish, but I sure as hell wouldn't bet -400 or whatever he is at the moment.

SATERSTYLE · 10-16-11, 03:52 PM

If you are asking if he has a chance to lose to Condit you should not be betting at all

Go back to photoshopping Daniel Craig's body and claiming it is yours

Educ8d Degener8 · 10-16-11, 04:45 PM

Brahm, put your entire air bankroll on GSP. You can't lose.

TheCalculator · 10-16-11, 07:26 PM

NEVER BET THE FARM. Use the kelly criterion to calculate your bet size.

GunShard · 10-16-11, 07:26 PM

Originally posted by dww123

R U serious or joking? I can't tell. 1.Evans isn't fighting Jones, Machida is. 2. Sonnen was submitting by Silva on the GROUND.

Oops, I meant to say Machida. That was the previous match up. Jones will most likely defeat Machida.

Also, The Packers beat the Rams.

NunyaBidness · 10-16-11, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by scofflaw

It's not smart to bet against GSP, but I think he has a greater chance of losing this fight than any in his recent history. So far the only wager I like is small, fight won't go 5 (+170)

I don't like that play. St. Pierre can barely finish his lunch these days. A finish is way more likely to be by Condit.

Vitooch · 10-17-11, 01:23 AM

It's funny how this ridiculous OP gets 19 replies and mine gets 0....

Das Jax · 10-17-11, 01:56 AM

Originally posted by Vitooch

It's funny how this ridiculous OP gets 19 replies and mine gets 0....

It's a cold, cruel world out there.

scofflaw · 10-17-11, 05:01 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I don't like that play. St. Pierre can barely finish his lunch these days. A finish is way more likely to be by Condit.

I'm not crazy about it either but I think there's value in playing a 5 round fight not going the distance at +170. With >5 I'm covered for a Condit T/KO, GSP T/KO + Sub, Cuts, Dislocated shoulders from falls..

With the recent Edgar knock out of Maynard, and Sonnen sub of Stann, I'm way more open to the possibility of the unexpected.

sweepem · 10-17-11, 06:33 AM

GSP and the Klitschkos basically build my bankroll over the last 3-4 years.

I would'nt go all in but I see nothing wrong when you bet 20-30% of your bankroll on him.

If Penn,Fitch,Hughes,Koscheck and Shields coud'nt beat him why should Condit have a chance?

He was dominated by Rory MacDonald until he made a mistake and got subed with 7 sec. left in the third round.

GSP will jab him a lil bit and than take him down and lay on him for the rest of the fight.

scofflaw · 10-17-11, 07:45 AM

Originally posted by sweepem

If Penn,Fitch,Hughes,Koscheck and Shields coud'nt beat him why should Condit have a chance? He was dominated by Rory MacDonald until he made a mistake and got subed with 7 sec. left in the third round.

GSP will jab him a lil bit and than take him down and lay on him for the rest of the fight.

That's not accurate to say Rory dominated Condit. The striking was about even in the first, the difference was Rory's takedowns. Second, striking advantage Condit but Rory takes the round for top control again. Condit's guard was too good, too busy for Rory to land any significant GnP. When Rory got rocked in the second, Carlos was doing the dominating for almost 1.5 rounds. It wasn't a sub, and it wasn't a 'mistake' that got Rory caught with.. it was a punch that broke his face.

Condit has a chance because this is a fight and GSP is human. I'm with everyone that GSP is the man and will probably decision Condit. but Carlos (and GSP) could easily finish this fight, so you may want to be careful placing large bets on a GSP decision, imo.

TheCalculator · 10-17-11, 08:36 AM

I also think there's great value in GSP finishing before the bell (+422). Lots of pressure on him to finish... He wants to finish... Says he's gonna finish. It's good enough that I threw a few units on it.

sirchadwick1 · 10-17-11, 08:48 AM

Originally posted by TheCalculator

I also think there's great value in GSP finishing before the bell (+422). Lots of pressure on him to finish... He wants to finish... Says he's gonna finish. It's good enough that I threw a few units on it.

I like this play. Everyone is so down on GSP and his 'finishing ability' lately... but you can't rule out a GnP stoppage here against Condit. The sport is so unpredictable and now is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of the GSP inside the distance line.

iQon · 10-17-11, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

Take GSP by decision. He couldn't finish Condit or any other top 10 WW if he was given 20 rounds.

Now watch GSP get the 1st round KO.

kiefynugs · 10-17-11, 12:31 PM

I doubt GSP will be able to finish condit. If He can't pull the trigger with Koscheck on the feet, and he can't even get in a brawl with Hardy, it would be foolish to try with Condit, who is more dangerous. GSP by decision or Condit inside the distance

NunyaBidness · 10-17-11, 12:50 PM

I've never bet against GSP before, but I'm taking Condit here. Everyone who has fought GSP in the last few years have been super cautious, worried about the GSP takedown. Everyone gets gunshy. Condit always comes into the fight with a huge wrestling disadvantage and he goes for broke, never out of the fight.

Condit has KO power and great sweeps, he will be dangerous for all 25 minutes, and I think he's got a decent shot at pulling off the upset.

cheeese · 10-17-11, 03:37 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

I like this play. Everyone is so down on GSP and his 'finishing ability' lately... but you can't rule out a GnP stoppage here against Condit. The sport is so unpredictable and now is the perfect opportunity to take advantage of the GSP inside the distance line.

I agree with you here. GSP finished Penn and Hughes. He beat Fitch unrecognizable which could easily have been a finish if Fitch wasn't so tough. Almost ripped Hardy's arms off again easily could have been a finish. He was injured against Alves and Shields. And he put Kos out of work for 9 months or so. He can finish this fight. Pair that with Condit almost always having to finish to win and it is pretty realistic to not go the distance at +170.

proposition joe · 10-17-11, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I've never bet against GSP before, but I'm taking Condit here. Everyone who has fought GSP in the last few years have been super cautious, worried about the GSP takedown. Everyone gets gunshy. Condit always comes into the fight with a huge wrestling disadvantage and he goes for broke, never out of the fight.

Condit has KO power and great sweeps, he will be dangerous for all 25 minutes, and I think he's got a decent shot at pulling off the upset.

I just made a small play on Condit as well. The biggest factor here will be the pressure on GSP to finish this fight.

Kaladarus · 10-17-11, 07:08 PM

Guys don't bet on Condit straight up. Can he really win a decision here? ITD boosts his odds by like +100 and TKO/KO is at +800 now. Might as well take those prices.

TheCalculator · 10-17-11, 08:49 PM

I hedged my bets by adding Condit by TKO at 780+. GSP is my heaviest bets on Sat. He's in MANY of my parlays also.