Henderson/Guida

proposition joe · 10-12-11, 10:21 PM

I'm already on Henderson pretty big but if the line gets to -200 or better I will buy in harder. I love this fight for Bendo.

MMASpeculator · 10-12-11, 11:55 PM

This is Bendo's fight to lose. He's better than Guida at every aspect of the game. He's got amazing cardio, fast hands and powerful wrestling. Some people even call Guida a poor man's Bendo. I'm surprised the line is so close, but don't let the hair dance fool you, Bendo should be a much bigger favorite.

gabe · 10-13-11, 01:36 AM

Loving Guida at plus money. He's gonna take this fight, just watch.

Vaughany · 10-13-11, 02:22 AM

I think Guida by decision would be the only play I'd consider if I was on Guida, find it hard to imagine him finishing Hendo

bjpenn85 · 10-13-11, 04:02 AM

what leads you to that conclusion? Fight may be closer than the odds suggest, but guidas best quality is nullified at least on paper in this matchup, why do you then think that he will win? By jumping around? KO bendo? You sound completely off here.

Vaughany · 10-13-11, 04:30 AM

Yeah, I can understand somebody sayin they think Guida might scrape a win by decision, but really don't see how anybody can be confident in Guida winning. Would like to hear reasoning from that perspective

Vaughany · 10-13-11, 04:31 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Where do you see this line going?

Currently dropped to -215 for Henderson. I hope Ben's line keeps falling.
Henderson by decision when it comes out. Might be a large wager for me.

Yeah Henderson by decision seems like the best play, but I wouldnt rule out a submission - guillotine or rear-naked. Wonder if we'll be able to get SOTN for this card.

BIGDAY · 10-13-11, 06:15 AM

Best play here is maybe fight to go the distance at -210 hedged with Bendo inside the distance when that comes out.

. Probably what I will do.

GL

Vaughany · 10-13-11, 06:26 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Best play here is maybe fight to go the distance at -210 hedged with Bendo inside the distance when that comes out.

. Probably what I will do.

GL

Agreed

proposition joe · 10-13-11, 09:10 AM

Originally posted by gabe

Loving Guida at plus money. He's gonna take this fight, just watch.

How?

Vaughany · 10-13-11, 10:34 AM

Originally posted by BIGDAY

Best play here is maybe fight to go the distance at -210 hedged with Bendo inside the distance when that comes out.

. Probably what I will do.

GL

Back up to -270 now

Educ8d Degener8 · 10-13-11, 11:25 AM

I'm kinda liking Guida barking here...

gabe · 10-13-11, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Yeah, I can understand somebody sayin they think Guida might scrape a win by decision, but really don't see how anybody can be confident in Guida winning. Would like to hear reasoning from that perspective

I think the last three guys Guida beat are as good or better than Henderson. (maybe except Gomi)

gabe · 10-13-11, 12:17 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

How?

Decision, 29-28, but hoping for 30-27

Guida gets better and better every fight, and after his last dominant performance against a guy who beat Henderson, I feel comfortable betting on him.

Vaughany · 10-13-11, 12:35 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I think the last three guys Guida beat are as good or better than Henderson. (maybe except Gomi)

Interesting

BIGDAY · 10-13-11, 12:58 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Back up to -270 now

Yep, put 3 Units on it at -210. Now just to wait and get the best price by Bendo inside the dist if decent.

BIGDAY · 10-13-11, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I think the last three guys Guida beat are as good or better than Henderson. (maybe except Gomi)

Gabe, pal, I like ya but you cant be serious...

sirchadwick1 · 10-13-11, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I think the last three guys Guida beat are as good or better than Henderson. (maybe except Gomi)

Arguably Pettis since he won over Bendo... but c'mon Dos Anjos? Gugerty? Definitely not Gomi.

And I still feel that Bendo is a better rounded fighter than Pettis and would most likely win the rematch.

It gets harder to take you seriously each and every day. Are you a line swayer?

I absolutely love Bendo straight up at -215.

Vitooch · 10-13-11, 04:54 PM

Can anyone name a strong, athletic, well-rounded wrestler Guida has beaten?

Styles make fights, and this fight a nightmare matchup for Guida stylistically.

proposition joe · 10-13-11, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by gabe

Decision, 29-28, but hoping for 30-27

Guida gets better and better every fight, and after his last dominant performance against a guy who beat Henderson, I feel comfortable betting on him.

Interesting. I completely disagree but that's what discussion is for.

I do agree with Guida's improvement, but also think it could be due to him no longer being matched up with more complete fighters (Kenny, Sanchez) than himself.

Guida beating Henderson because Guida beat Pettis and Pettis beat Henderson isn't logical rationalization.

I think that giving the takedowns/offensive wrestling advantage to Guida is a mistake. In the same sense that a good striker that can threaten with takedowns will often outstrike a superior striker that is worried about defending the takedowns, a good wrestler that can threaten with strikes is capable of outwrestling a superior takedown guy at times. I wouldn't be surprised to see Henderson get more takedowns than Guida.

The striking advantage will clearly be with Benson. His ability to utilize kicks might be limited in this fight but he still will have the better hands as well as an advantage with his speed.

Henderson appears incapable of being submitted even by much much better jiu jitsu guys than Clay. Clay, on the other hand, has been choked out before and Henderson has a wicked guillotine.

I don't see any way, outside of something crazy, that Guida can win this.

Kaladarus · 10-13-11, 05:39 PM

I kind of like Guida here not by much though. I'm more interested in getting a good price on either fighter by decision. Once we get lines on those I think a play on this fight will be very easy.

gabe · 10-13-11, 07:09 PM

I see where you guys are coming from and agree with what you have to say, but Guida's chances at such a good price are too good to pass up on. That was my same logic when he fought Pettis at +200. I definitely did not expect him to dominate Pettis the way he did. I thought it would be a much closer fight, but he surprised me. I will def not count him out of this fight. Like I said, I love getting Guida at plus money in this fight.

gabe · 10-13-11, 07:12 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

I kind of like Guida here not by much though. I'm more interested in getting a good price on either fighter by decision. Once we get lines on those I think a play on this fight will be very easy.

I think either fighter via submission would be a decent wager

proposition joe · 10-13-11, 07:23 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I see where you guys are coming from and agree with what you have to say, but Guida's chances at such a good price are too good to pass up on. That was my same logic when he fought Pettis at +200. I definitely did not expect him to dominate Pettis the way he did. I thought it would be a much closer fight, but he surprised me. I will def not count him out of this fight. Like I said, I love getting Guida at plus money in this fight.

I get what you're saying and I am a big fan of Guida. I will admit that he can steal a fight from anyone. I think that the Pettis fight is a bad comparison though. I thought that he would win that one going in given the stylistic matchup, and he did very well. I don't ever get when people try to argue that Pettis should have won....BUT he definately didn't dominate Pettis. He overwhelmed him and won a distant decision but dominate makes it sound like he just ran through Pettis. I was nervous for Guida at several points in the fight and never felt like he was close to finishing the fight or even damaging Pettis enough to set up for an eventual finish.

It should be a fun fight though!!

PS. If Clay is able to submit Bendo, I'll forever defer to you in any conversation regarding MMA. Seriously.

gabe · 10-13-11, 08:34 PM

Originally posted by proposition joe

I get what you're saying and I am a big fan of Guida. I will admit that he can steal a fight from anyone. I think that the Pettis fight is a bad comparison though. I thought that he would win that one going in given the stylistic matchup, and he did very well. I don't ever get when people try to argue that Pettis should have won....BUT he definately didn't dominate Pettis. He overwhelmed him and won a distant decision but dominate makes it sound like he just ran through Pettis. I was nervous for Guida at several points in the fight and never felt like he was close to finishing the fight or even damaging Pettis enough to set up for an eventual finish.

It should be a fun fight though!!

PS. If Clay is able to submit Bendo, I'll forever defer to you in any conversation regarding MMA. Seriously.

The fight will likely go to a decision, but I would throw a few bucks on either one of those guys winning by submission. I imagine the 5dimes odds would be great for that.

He beat up Pettis the entire match. The only times I was worried was when it looked like Pettis might sneak a triangle from his guard.

NunyaBidness · 10-13-11, 11:13 PM

Originally posted by gabe

I think either fighter via submission would be a decent wager

I wouldn't take Guida by sub at any less than +4000

Vaughany · 10-14-11, 03:12 AM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I wouldn't take Guida by sub at any less than +4000

Agreed!

gabe · 10-14-11, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by NunyaBidness

I wouldn't take Guida by sub at any less than +4000

i'd risk $10 on that. i could totally see him catching henderson with a guillotine.

could see henderson finishing with a rear naked choke, if he does what you guys are expecting him to. beat him down for 2 1/2 rounds then finish with the choke.

but more than likely, this'll go to a decision.

Vaughany · 10-14-11, 02:22 PM

"I can do all things through Christ who strengthens me.....CAN I GET A HELL YEAH... I MEAN CAN I GET AN AMEN"!..

BIGDAY · 10-31-11, 10:33 AM

Line back around -230 for the dist on props. I hope it falls under -200 by fight time.

JAKEPEAVY21 · 10-31-11, 10:51 AM

I love Henderson in this fight..he has an edge in every facet of the game over Guida..I see the line getting chalkier as the fight date approaches

proposition joe · 10-31-11, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

I love Henderson in this fight..he has an edge in every facet of the game over Guida..I see the line getting chalkier as the fight date approaches

I love the av..

And agree 100%.

JAKEPEAVY21 · 10-31-11, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by proposition joe

I love the av..

And agree 100%.

thanks

To be clear, I like Guida as a fighter, just not in this matchup..Hendo is a fukkin beast

scofflaw · 10-31-11, 12:08 PM

Originally posted by JAKEPEAVY21

thanks

To be clear, I like Guida as a fighter, just not in this matchup..Hendo is a fukkin beast

Call me Bizzaro JAKEPEAVY because Guida is the only fighter that I dislike, and I think he's got a shot at winning this fight versus Bendo. I'm so shell shocked after I lost money on Pettis that I don't think I'll be able to touch this line.

In the Pettis fight, he avoids anything resembling a fight while the dummies in the audience are chanting GUIDA! GUIDA! GUIDA!

Then in the post-fight interview he has the nerve to say if you like exciting fights, he's your man for the title shot.. And the dolts in the audience eat it up

I had never been so disgusted with a fight or a live audience before. Clay Guida should be scorned for his last fight, not treated like this rock star.

/end Clay Guida rant.

Anyway I'm just saying it's scary to bet against Guida, he very well could pull that same crap and squeak a decision.