MY UFC 136 Card

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  • BIGDAY
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 02-17-10
    • 48245
    #1
    MY UFC 136 Card
    I see some profit to be made this weekend boys. I will place this weekends plays in this thread.

    MAYNARD +135
    Value is on the underdog in this fight imo. To be honest, I was on Edgar as the dog in their previous fight as these fighters should be EV imo.

    FLORIAN +265
    Like Florian at this weight and I like getting him over +250. Aldo wasn't impresive enough for me in his last fight to pay over -300. Florian is technical enough at any position to get a victory.

    STEPHENS +250
    I like Stephens to control this fight and grind out a decision. Stephens by KO/TKO is not out of the questions either.

    When playing underdogs and trying to find value these three fighters are very well rounded and experienced fighters and are very capable of getting their hands raised. I'll take the risk with these fighters.

    I will be adding a few prop bets to these selections as well.

    GL Everyone!!!
    Tags: None
    • BIGDAY
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 02-17-10
      • 48245
      #2
      Also Love that the odds are coming down for Aldo/Florian Starts Rd 2.

      At -306 Now. Might play this strait. Would love for it to fall down to -250. I see these fighters being very smart and feeling the first round out.
        Comment
        • Vaughany
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 03-07-10
          • 45563
          #3
          Originally posted by BIGDAY
          Also Love that the odds are coming down for Aldo/Florian Starts Rd 2.

          At -306 Now. Might play this strait. Would love for it to fall down to -250. I see these fighters being very smart and feeling the first round out.
          Yeah tht is a great bet IMO, got in one parlay so far but will be adding it to a couple more. Think they will both be pretty tentative for first couple rounds.
            Comment
            • BIGDAY
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 02-17-10
              • 48245
              #4
              Originally posted by Vaughany
              Yeah tht is a great bet IMO, got in one parlay so far but will be adding it to a couple more. Think they will both be pretty tentative for first couple rounds.


              Completely agree. I think this fight has a good chance at going the distance to be honest. These two stay fairly out of trouble imo.
                Comment
                • Vaughany
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 03-07-10
                  • 45563
                  #5
                  Originally posted by BIGDAY


                  Completely agree. I think this fight has a good chance at going the distance to be honest. These two stay fairly out of trouble imo.
                  Yeah if I was going to make a straight up play at all it was going to be Aldo by decision. May just stick with the completes 1 round now and have it in 3 parlays
                    Comment
                    • Beelzebubzy
                      SBR Hall of Famer
                      • 06-06-11
                      • 6995
                      #6
                      stephens is a great play. He mixed in wrestlign well against Downes and has one shot power. However, Pettis will out class him standing someway Davis did
                        Comment
                        • gabe
                          SBR Hall of Famer
                          • 09-12-11
                          • 7405
                          #7
                          Originally posted by Beelzebubzy
                          stephens is a great play. He mixed in wrestlign well against Downes and has one shot power. However, Pettis will out class him standing someway Davis did
                          you just contradicted yourself by saying he is a great play but then will lose.
                            Comment
                            • BIGDAY
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 02-17-10
                              • 48245
                              #8
                              Layed a Juicy prop bet!

                              Aldo/Florian starts the second rd. -306
                                Comment
                                • Vaughany
                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                  • 03-07-10
                                  • 45563
                                  #9
                                  Originally posted by BIGDAY
                                  Layed a Juicy prop bet!

                                  Aldo/Florian starts the second rd. -306
                                  Nice! I've parlayed it with GSP, Not Stephens by sub and Not Maynard by Sub...pays out at -130
                                    Comment
                                    • omalley21
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 11-08-10
                                      • 908
                                      #10
                                      I definitely see Aldo v Florian going past the 1st round. Also, Aldo was definitely not 100% for the hominick fight. I'm big on Maynard. +135 is crazy, I doubt we see it that high again.. Can't see Florian winning. Why is pettis such a big favorite? Gotta put a lil bit on Stephens.
                                        Comment
                                        • BIGDAY
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 02-17-10
                                          • 48245
                                          #11
                                          Originally posted by omalley21
                                          I definitely see Aldo v Florian going past the 1st round. Also, Aldo was definitely not 100% for the hominick fight. I'm big on Maynard. +135 is crazy, I doubt we see it that high again.. Can't see Florian winning. Why is pettis such a big favorite? Gotta put a lil bit on Stephens.
                                          Maynard will end up my largest wager of the evening as well.

                                          With Florian, I like him at this weight and I see him tchnical enough to use his reach and hope this line climbs to +300 or more as money should continue to come in on Aldo.
                                            Comment
                                            • BIGDAY
                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                              • 02-17-10
                                              • 48245
                                              #12
                                              Added GUILLARD by KO/TKO -150 for a Unit.
                                                Comment
                                                • BIGDAY
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 02-17-10
                                                  • 48245
                                                  #13
                                                  Oh, and I will wait for reduced on Florian as this might get all the way to +350. Most likely a 1/2 Unit play.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • proposition joe
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 10-06-11
                                                      • 532
                                                      #14
                                                      Originally posted by BIGDAY
                                                      Added GUILLARD by KO/TKO -150 for a Unit.

                                                      Great play
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TheDane
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 02-09-11
                                                          • 642
                                                          #15
                                                          Lota Dogs, good luck.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Glitch
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 07-08-09
                                                              • 11795
                                                              #16
                                                              just watched weigh-ins. i dont really like any of those picks except stephens (and i dont like it much)

                                                              aldo wasnt impressive to you in his last fight then you need to watch more aldo. k-flo is a smart fighter but i dont think hes ready for the bum rush.

                                                              i wish guillard by KO paid better than that but that play i like also.


                                                              i am off sonnen now, no idea whos gonna win that fight. slight lean sonnen.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BIGDAY
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 02-17-10
                                                                  • 48245
                                                                  #17
                                                                  Rock on Glitch!
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • BIGDAY
                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                      • 02-17-10
                                                                      • 48245
                                                                      #18
                                                                      My official plays:

                                                                      MAYNARD +135 2Units

                                                                      Jose Aldo/KenFlo Starts Rd 2 -296 3 Units

                                                                      Guillard by TKO/KO -150 1 Unit

                                                                      Stephens +250 1 Unit

                                                                      KenFlo +305 .5 Unit

                                                                      Nothing really big this card but I like Maynard and the KenFlo/Aldo prop the best.

                                                                      Good luck and I hope everyone cashes their tickets!!!!!
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        • Vitooch
                                                                          SBR MVP
                                                                          • 09-26-11
                                                                          • 3470
                                                                          #19
                                                                          I don't think you're giving enough credit to Aldo. Something seemed off with Aldo in his last fight. He gassed far too early for me not to think he had a particularly tough weight cut.

                                                                          For a fighter who's finished most of his opponents in in the UFC and the WEC, Aldo isn't getting enough respect by linesmakers and bettors alike in this fight. Aldo winning inside the distance was -109 at 5Dimes at one point. That's absolutely absurd as far as I'm concerned.

                                                                          Florian is a very smart, experienced fighter but just isn't as talented and explosive as Aldo. Unless he gases severely again, which I don't see happening, he should be able to finish Florian.
                                                                            Comment
                                                                            • BIGDAY
                                                                              SBR Aristocracy
                                                                              • 02-17-10
                                                                              • 48245
                                                                              #20
                                                                              Originally posted by Vitooch
                                                                              I don't think you're giving enough credit to Aldo. Something seemed off with Aldo in his last fight. He gassed far too early for me not to think he had a particularly tough weight cut.

                                                                              For a fighter who's finished most of his opponents in in the UFC and the WEC, Aldo isn't getting enough respect by linesmakers and bettors alike in this fight. Aldo winning inside the distance was -109 at 5Dimes at one point. That's absolutely absurd as far as I'm concerned.

                                                                              Florian is a very smart, experienced fighter but just isn't as talented and explosive as Aldo. Unless he gases severely again, which I don't see happening, he should be able to finish Florian.

                                                                              I definitely respect Aldo. And he definitely has the obvious edge. I'm just trying to find some slight value in a line that went from +245 to +305. I fade the public a lot to be honest. Florian is motivated and I believe he keeps himself out of trouble in the first two rounds and looks to take the fight in the later rounds.

                                                                              Just a .5 unit for value.

                                                                              Appreciate the input!
                                                                                Comment
                                                                                • Vitooch
                                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                                  • 09-26-11
                                                                                  • 3470
                                                                                  #21
                                                                                  I totally get your reasoning for betting on Florian. I just think hedging Florian by decision or just straight up might be a better bet than betting only on Florian and not Aldo.

                                                                                  I see more value in Stephens, Maynard, and Stann as dog plays. But who am I kidding, I'm not the one breaking down cards on television

                                                                                  Good luck to you, sir.
                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                    • 5mike5
                                                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                      • 09-21-11
                                                                                      • 52020
                                                                                      #22
                                                                                      i cant pass up florian +300 on 5dimes with a decent fav. on a 2 teamer....small risk big reward
                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                        • BIGDAY
                                                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                          • 02-17-10
                                                                                          • 48245
                                                                                          #23
                                                                                          Originally posted by Vitooch
                                                                                          I totally get your reasoning for betting on Florian. I just think hedging Florian by decision or just straight up might be a better bet than betting only on Florian and not Aldo.

                                                                                          I see more value in Stephens, Maynard, and Stann as dog plays. But who am I kidding, I'm not the one breaking down cards on television

                                                                                          Good luck to you, sir.
                                                                                          It's all good, I love the input.
                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                            • kingsr
                                                                                              SBR MVP
                                                                                              • 01-23-10
                                                                                              • 1983
                                                                                              #24
                                                                                              Can someone tell me which is the best book for UFC?
                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                • Vaughany
                                                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                                                                  • 45563
                                                                                                  #25
                                                                                                  Originally posted by kingsr
                                                                                                  Can someone tell me which is the best book for UFC?
                                                                                                  http://www.amazon.co.uk/UFCs-Ultimate-Warriors-Top-Ten/dp/1550226916
                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                    • phillybadboy
                                                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                                                                      • 9383
                                                                                                      #26
                                                                                                      bigday=sbr'sharp'
                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                        • BIGDAY
                                                                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                                          • 02-17-10
                                                                                                          • 48245
                                                                                                          #27
                                                                                                          Originally posted by phillybadboy
                                                                                                          bigday=sbr'sharp'



                                                                                                          Trust me, I can lose my fair share of wagers. More so when trying to find the Dogs with value. However, I can say that MMA is my most profitable sport.
                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                            • Glitch
                                                                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                                                                              • 07-08-09
                                                                                                              • 11795
                                                                                                              #28
                                                                                                              im back on sonnen against the marine.
                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                • BIGDAY
                                                                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                                                  • 02-17-10
                                                                                                                  • 48245
                                                                                                                  #29
                                                                                                                  Originally posted by Glitch
                                                                                                                  im back on sonnen against the marine.
                                                                                                                  Sonnen should get this fight to the ground and the Marine will get frustrated with how powerful and controling Sonnen's ground game can be.

                                                                                                                  GL tonight bud.
                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                    • Glitch
                                                                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                                                                      • 07-08-09
                                                                                                                      • 11795
                                                                                                                      #30
                                                                                                                      stann looks tough. really cut up and sturdy. But like nick said in that video you guys did, we saw how sonnen dominated anderson silva for the entire fight before he got caught and finished.

                                                                                                                      i watched this interview of brian stann on monday and he was really smart and articulant in it (despite a slight speech impediment.) Smart fighters can be dangerous but nerds are good at getting punched in the face...not sure exactly what to make of it.

                                                                                                                      goodluck to you too man
                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                        • Vaughany
                                                                                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                                                          • 03-07-10
                                                                                                                          • 45563
                                                                                                                          #31
                                                                                                                          Originally posted by Glitch
                                                                                                                          stann looks tough. really cut up and sturdy. But like nick said in that video you guys did, we saw how sonnen dominated anderson silva for the entire fight before he got caught and finished.

                                                                                                                          i watched this interview of brian stann on monday and he was really smart and articulant in it (despite a slight speech impediment.) Smart fighters can be dangerous but nerds are good at getting punched in the face...not sure exactly what to make of it.

                                                                                                                          goodluck to you too man
                                                                                                                          "Despite a slight speech impediment"!!! What the hell!
                                                                                                                            Comment
                                                                                                                            • phillybadboy
                                                                                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                              • 12-11-09
                                                                                                                              • 9383
                                                                                                                              #32
                                                                                                                              Originally posted by kingsr
                                                                                                                              Can someone tell me which is the best book for UFC?
                                                                                                                              bodog
                                                                                                                                Comment
                                                                                                                                • Vaughany
                                                                                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                                                                  • 03-07-10
                                                                                                                                  • 45563
                                                                                                                                  #33
                                                                                                                                  Bodog might be best for underdogs odds. 5dimes/sportbet and Pinnacle are the best overall though
                                                                                                                                    Comment
                                                                                                                                    • phillybadboy
                                                                                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                                                                                      • 12-11-09
                                                                                                                                      • 9383
                                                                                                                                      #34
                                                                                                                                      lol
                                                                                                                                        Comment
                                                                                                                                        • 5mike5
                                                                                                                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                                                                                                                          • 09-21-11
                                                                                                                                          • 52020
                                                                                                                                          #35
                                                                                                                                          bodog just sucks
                                                                                                                                            Comment
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