UFC 135 Betting Preview with DSI MMA Linesman Nick and SBR Poster BigDay

[SBRPicks]

Nick, the MMA Linesman for DSI, who originates most of the opening MMA lines, visited the SBRtv studio to discuss betting MMA in general, and to talk a bit about the upcoming UFC 135 card.

Noted SBR Poster and MMA bettor BigDay also joined in via phone.

This is the part where the gang discussed UFC 135.

Stay tuned for the segments where they discussed handicapping, booking and betting MMA in general, coming out tomorrow!




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[illmatick]

LOL at Loshak's Anderson Silva crush.

nice get sbr.

[JuicedUp]

nice job, BigDay.

[Br0nxer]

carper lay off the H for one day

would like to do a comparison of the quality of your interviews

[illmatick]

carper lay off the H for one day

X

Carper's all about the cognitive nootropics.

[Kaladarus]

I didn't really get much from the video. Not much useful information presented. This could be because of the huge favorites on this card though.

[BIGDAY]

The only way I really approach a card like this is a few small parlays and then try to hedge with the underdog's most likely out come. Make sense?

GL everyone this weekend!

[v1y]

**** I want Nick's job...

[Chairib]

[Kaladarus]

I appreciate you doing this. You usually have great breakdowns and picks.

I guess this is just one of those cards where there isn't much to do straight plays on.

[BIGDAY]

I appreciate you doing this. You usually have great breakdowns and picks.

I guess this is just one of those cards where there isn't much to do straight plays on.

Completely agree. IMO there is not much value in paying more that -250 juice strait up in mma. I understand a -5000 winner is a winner, but I have done well trying to select "value". I did get Hughes at +1300 by submission. Now at +915. So a lot of it is getting an early line for your hedges if you see value. But to be honest, UFC 135 is a very hard card to profit greatly from. In fact a few of these underdogs may cash and the books will be happy. Problem is, these underdogs are not predictable enough in my eyes to make a wager on strait up.

Everyone has an opinion and every opinion is respected.

[Glitch]

BIGDAY, youre famous. nice.
nice opinions here as always.

i think i am gifted with a special talent to pick fighters with whom im not familiar based soley on weigh-in photo and sherdog record.
........................................ .....................................

Floyd Mayweather is a Puss. Nate Diaz challenged him to a boxing match but mayweather's camp declined. hes afraid of losing to an MMA fighter in boxing. of course he wouldnt get the recognition if he won equal to the criticism of if he lost. hes not suppose to lose. right?

diaz by knockout +675
Kos by knockout ....i like betting people to submit but dont forget koscheck is also a world class wrestler. +105 (hardly worth it)
J.Jones wins KO of the Night +500

PICKS from pics: http://mmajunkie.com/news/25374/ufc-135-jones-vs-rampage-weigh-in-photos-an-mmajunkie-com-image-gallery.mma
Then minor Sherdog.com research


1. Junior Assuncao +125 2x (12-4 from athens GA, 3 KOs, 6 submissions, 3 decisions)
3. James Te Huna -160 5x (12-5 with 8 KOs 3s submissions, 1 decision...From australia- was on a 7-fight winstreak before his most recent victory which was by rear naked choke)

[jacktheknife]

Kos by knockout ....i like betting people to submit but dont forget koscheck is also a world class wrestler.

....what?

[Glitch]

he said somethiing in the video about liking hughs by submission but both of these guys will be near-impossible to submit. koscheck is a great wrestler also.

[jacktheknife]

Right

Just...trying to reconcile that whole... I mean, that you think you should bet on him getting the tko, but you enjoy betting on people to submit, but he can also take him down and keep him there.

Never mind.

[illmatick]

hehe, take it easy Jack. This thread was linked to Players talk.

[sweethook]

yes this is a tuff card to cap

[Vaughany]

Good stuff Bigday

[Glitch]

Right

Just...trying to reconcile that whole... I mean, that you think you should bet on him getting the tko, but you enjoy betting on people to submit, but he can also take him down and keep him there.

Never mind.

he punches really hard and hughs has been getting knocked out a lot. Koscheck has good takedown defense. not sure which one of these concepts is so tough to grasp for you. maybe its the combination of them.

[BIGDAY]

he punches really hard and hughs has been getting knocked out a lot. Koscheck has good takedown defense. not sure which one of these concepts is so tough to grasp for you. maybe its the combination of them.

This is why my hedge is Hughes by sub +1300. I see Kos knocking Hughes down if not KO, but Hughes has underrated subs IMO. He had someone out cold in a front headlock a couple fights ago. Aggressive wrestlers can find themselves suspect to a sub. I wouldn't play it now at +900 odds but at +1300 I saw some value to hedge. Hughes has submitted quite a few good fighters so there's a chance. GL today.

[Glitch]

matt hughs is a great wrestler and use to be an elite fighter; ive seen him submit a lot of people. goodluck to you too man.

[Chairib]

Everyone has an opinion and every opinion is respected.

All opinions are equal, but some opinions are more equal than others.

[ttrace35]

Right

Just...trying to reconcile that whole... I mean, that you think you should bet on him getting the tko, but you enjoy betting on people to submit, but he can also take him down and keep him there.

Never mind.

[Glitch]

James Te Huna def. Ricardo Romero via knockout (punches) - Round 1, 0:47

[Educ8d Degener8]

This is why my hedge is Hughes by sub +1300. I see Kos knocking Hughes down if not KO, but Hughes has underrated subs IMO. He had someone out cold in a front headlock a couple fights ago. Aggressive wrestlers can find themselves suspect to a sub. I wouldn't play it now at +900 odds but at +1300 I saw some value to hedge. Hughes has submitted quite a few good fighters so there's a chance. GL today.

That was when Hughes sub'd Ricardo Almeida with the Redneck Tie.

[phillybadboy]

lol

[Glitch]

Junior Assuncao def. Eddie Yagin via unanimous decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-27)

[BIGDAY]

Good night of fights. I was unable to watch as I was at a college football game. But from what I read on the updates, entertaining fights.

I guessing some hit some good parlays.

Look forward to the next event!

[Glitch]

thats messed up that they sticky those other "expert" threads but not yours bigday.

i should've got on diaz by submission...a lot of guys in the MMA forum were on it and highly convincing. i just thought he was gonna punch his face open and put him to sleep. but i guess i knew hes really been training hard and becoming a true great at his weight. his camp can teach a lot about bjj.

[BIGDAY]

They have a sticky on the mma forum.

[Chairib]

How did you get chosen for this?

[Glitch]

Right

Just...trying to reconcile that whole... I mean, that you think you should bet on him getting the tko, but you enjoy betting on people to submit, but he can also take him down and keep him there.

Never mind.

he punches really hard and hughs has been getting knocked out a lot. Koscheck has good takedown defense. not sure which one of these concepts is so tough to grasp for you. maybe its the combination of them.

[BIGDAY]

How did you get chosen for this?

SBR asked me.

I replyed- For SBR, the world.

[BIGDAY]

Keep rockin it Glitch!

[brooks85]

How did you get chosen for this?

its amazing what can happen when you have some credibility


remember

chairib 0-0
pile of dogshit 0-0