ATTENTION: PUNCHMASTER!! Need your advice here!!

[flyingillini]

WBO NABO - Heavyweight Title - Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, California, US - Wednesday 16th July, 2008 @ 9pm EST

Hasim Rahman
-155
James Toney
+125

[punchmaster]

WBO NABO - Heavyweight Title - Pechanga Resort & Casino, Temecula, California, US - Wednesday 16th July, 2008 @ 9pm EST

Hasim Rahman
-155
James Toney
+125

Hey- these guys will weigh-in today and I'll let you know my thoughts after that. In terms of true boxing skill and ring IQ- it's not even close. Both guys gave the impression they were shot in their last couple of bouts....

[MMAJOE]

hmm tough to bet on 2 washed up Heavyweights.The weigh ins should tell a lot. Whats the over under ?

[tressel4]

The smart play is over, neither man will go down easily at this stage of career.

[punchmaster]

A nice play for Toney-Rahman

Hey- these guys will weigh-in today and I'll let you know my thoughts after that. In terms of true boxing skill and ring IQ- it's not even close. Both guys gave the impression they were shot in their last couple of bouts....

The best value around the net is easily this proposition bet : Either fighter knocked down or out +250. When you compare it to under 11.5 rounds which, the highest I've seen is +200, it's a no brainer. The under bet is saying we'll pay you double your wager if the bout is stopped before the halfway mark of the last round while the prop bet is saying if there's just an official knockdown anytime during the bout, we'll pay you 2.5 times your wager- go figure. That's a nice stand alone value play, however if I don't have to , I refuse to lose any $$ to aging , underachieving heavyweights who may walz thru 12 rounds, just trying to the get the win and head towards a title, so I'm sticking 100 for 250 on the prop bet and 225 for 122 on over 11.5 rounds at -185. So if the (at least formerly) sweet counterpunching Toney puts a series of shots together and stops the questionably chinned Rahman in 10, I'll make a measly 25 bucks and if the two slosh thru 12 rounds, it's 22 bucks for the bankroll. Obviously what I'm hoping for is for either fighter to hit the deck, maybe from a balance shot or from fatigue late in the fight but to get up and make it thru the round, and ultimately through all 12 rounds. Then of course, both bets cash And there's every bit as good a chance of one of these guys hitting the deck an continuing on, than being stopped. That prop bet is only found at one site, one of SBR's top 10 rated books (that doesn't accept Canadian play) and the over number is available at the group of books whose leader has the best URL going but just happens to bounce checks and get around to paying you when they feel like it. GL, PM.

[InTheHole]

Which way are you leaning gillini?

[InTheHole]

Thanks for the analysis PUNCHMASTER. The 11.5 prop is at dimes and sportbook. Doesn't look like I can get that juicy knock-down prop

[punchmaster]

Thanks for the analysis PUNCHMASTER. The 11.5 prop is at dimes and sportbook. Doesn't look like I can get that juicy knock-down prop

That wasn't too much of an analysis on the fighters, just a safe way to bet while giving yourself a shot at cashing the prop and the over.

There's too many variables and unknowns I think to make an official pick, off the record I put some on Toney the other day at +130 and the numbers looked headed towards even come fight time so I may even hedge again but I lean Toney.

In terms of boxing skills and ring IQ, he's miles ahead of Rahman, Toney is on his way to the hall of fame, he was middleweight- 160 pounds, supermiddle 168 champ in the early 90's and he grabbed a cruiserweight title at 190 pounds in 2003. Food and Roids got him into the heavyweight division where he's failed two drug tests and although looking good at times, he's balooned as high as 237 for the first fight with Rahman 3/2006 and still managed a draw while looking grossly out of shape and gassing in the ring. Peope are excited- he came in at 226 and seems to have taken this fight seriously- it's his last chance, he'll be 40 next month, but is it too late?. Some say at the weigh- in, now that he's roidless, there's a loss of muscle mass and a lot of loose skin in that lighter 226 pounds- who knows. His sparring and training did seem to go well though.

Rahman.... He's the natural heavyweight here with a good jab and strong right hand but that's about it and he may also be virtually shot even at 35 years of age. He must of caught Lennox Lewis at the most perfect undertrained time for his 2001 knockout title win, but maybe Lewis damaged that jaw with that hellacious KO in the rematch. He belongs between 235-240 and has also had some weight swings up to 261. Simply put, Rahman is limited in the ring- I don't think I've ever seen a decent left hook from him and he's just not that good. An aging and injured Oleg Maskaev who looked about 50 years old to me ringside, stopped him for the 2nd time in 2006. What really frightens me about Rahman, is since then, 2 of the lightest punching heavyweights in the division , one with zero knockouts, had him buzzed and in trouble during their bouts. I'd never lay chalk on this guy against someone as talented as Toney. I'm speculating that Toney reaches in his old bag of tricks and finds a way to win if he's not a walking corpse.

[flyingillini]

Which way are you leaning gillini?

Going with the Prop Bet about being knocked down or out... I just go with what punchmaster says... I am sure he loses now and then but so far every time I bet on what he says I cash in. His picks paid for my new bamboo floors in my house.. Even if this loses it is ok.... He is still my #1 capper I ride every time

[The HG]

Punchmaster-

Great writeups, thanks for the info.

I was going to take Rahman at about -125, but I'll lay off. I figure Toney is closer to the end than Rahman, and will have a bigger clunker of an effort than Rahman.

I figure Toney will fade and Rahman will win just by being more active, but I'm going to lay off.

[punchmaster]

Punchmaster-

Great writeups, thanks for the info.

I was going to take Rahman at about -125, but I'll lay off. I figure Toney is closer to the end than Rahman, and will have a bigger clunker of an effort than Rahman.

I figure Toney will fade and Rahman will win just by being more active, but I'm going to lay off.

That not a bad take HG, good thinking. I've got a few boxing capping buds I respect who are going for that view but it's just hard to tell if Toney is at the end of the rope but Rahman is not known for his wonderful stamina anyways. Hard to trust either guy. That knockdown prop would be sweet. Cheers

[flyingillini]

Punchmaster did you get my pm to the questions you wanted to know?

[punchmaster]

Punchmaster did you get my pm to the questions you wanted to know?

yes I did, good stuff fg!!

[flyingillini]

By the way.. I took the prop and I also threw a dime on Rahman at -135.. I am sure it will lose.. been losing a lot lately.. just wanted to make it interesting.

[punchmaster]

By the way.. I took the prop and I also threw a dime on Rahman at -135.. I am sure it will lose.. been losing a lot lately.. just wanted to make it interesting.

prop hit man!!!! FG- Rahman , c'mon man- I leaned Toney and said I'd never lay chalk on Rahman. Even if Rahman didn't quit on the cut, he was probably going to lose that fight- he was rocked early- no chin...

[flyingillini]

prop hit man!!!! FG- Rahman , c'mon man- I leaned Toney and said I'd never lay chalk on Rahman. Even if Rahman didn't quit on the cut, he was probably going to lose that fight- he was rocked early- no chin...

I know I put a grand on each.. so I lost the fight but the prop bet hit.. I know I went against what u said its my fault.. oh well but it turned out ok anyway from the prop.. thanks again man.. these people at sbr have no clue what your all about.. their loss! I owe you so much you have no clue!

[MMAJOE]

good breakdown Punchmaster. I leaned towards Toney also but a small play no prop bets

[punchmaster]

good breakdown Punchmaster. I leaned towards Toney also but a small play no prop bets

Thanks MMAJOE

[smallon]

I got Rahman on Pinnacle at +105. Skill almost always beats brawn and Rahman has always been a bit of an underachiever. Thankfully this fight went in Rahman's favor...

[punchmaster]

I got Rahman on Pinnacle at +105. Skill almost always beats brawn and Rahman has always been a bit of an underachiever. Thankfully this fight went in Rahman's favor...

What's with this post Smallon? It doesn't make any sense and of course, true to form , it's long after the event. The fight went in Toney's favor as it should have. It pretty much looked like Toney was warming up, starting to tag Rahman, who was cut in the eyebrow area and appeared to look for a way out of the fight, telling the doctor he couldn't see and I've seen fighters continue with much worse cuts. So you meant you were on Toney. Of course you were, as your always on the right guy after the event's over. I don't mean to be a jerk and don't want any bad karma but having someone consistently come in after the event to say they were on the right guy and providing some logic, it's just bad form and do whatever you want, I won't mention it again. So what's happening in Thailand? Who are the top pound for pound boxers out there? I like Terdsak Jandaeng- not the most skilled but what a badass. I took a shot with him stopping Luevano at a ridiculous price and nearly jumped off the couch when he floored Steven hard, but Luevano is the goods. His fight with JMM was also wild.

[flyingillini]

What's with this post Smallon? It doesn't make any sense and of course, true to form , it's long after the event. The fight went in Toney's favor as it should have. It pretty much looked like Toney was warming up, starting to tag Rahman, who was cut in the eyebrow area and appeared to look for a way out of the fight, telling the doctor he couldn't see and I've seen fighters continue with much worse cuts. So you meant you were on Toney. Of course you were, as your always on the right guy after the event's over. I don't mean to be a jerk and don't want any bad karma but having someone consistently come in after the event to say they were on the right guy and providing some logic, it's just bad form and do whatever you want, I won't mention it again. What your doing is transparent, why don't you post your loser's after the events also? So what's happening in Thailand? Who are the top pound for pound boxers out there? I like Terdsak Jandaeng- not the most skilled but what a badass. I took a shot with him stopping Luevano at a ridiculous price and nearly jumped off the couch when he floored Steven hard, but Luevano is the goods.

Punchmaster, do you see the post where smallon said he had Rahman to win and luckily he did win.. It made no sense now he posts that he is glad toney won.. go look at the other thread about the fight.. he is a idiot and lies.

[smallon]

First - I made a mistake, I had Toney to win at +110.

Second - Flyingillini, I don't lie, period. Alot of the time when I post, it's either really early in the morning or late at night so I'm not always 100%. I was lucky to win the Toney wager because many, many people think the bout should have been ruled a no-contest.

Finally - I've really had enough of this bullshit with people telling me I always post after the fact so I'm going to make a few picks today, before the fact so all of you will shut up. It's irritating and while I certainly don't pick all the fights right, I do know a fair amount about the sport and don't need to lie. Neither do I feel the need to come here and give my picks to prove I made a bet, poor form or not.

Terdsak is indeed a badass, I've seen him fight here in Thailand many times and know him fairly well. Between fights he tends to go up in weight quite a bit - not fat but he gets dried out for his fights and puts on a good 20-25 pounds between fights. There's a chance I'll be at his next fight. I'm supposed to go to Banal - Concepcion in Cebu, PI and Terdsak's fight with Eric Canoy is the following day a short flight away.

The Thai scene is in a shambles quite frankly and it stems from all the mismatches that take place. Alot of the top guys fight one stiff after another and then when it comes time to fight someone world-class, they're ill-prepared. Former IBF minimumweight champion and 62 fight veteran Ratanapol Sor Vorapin recently defeated a Chinese fighter making his pro debut - these are the sorts of fights he'll take until he is maneuvered into a title shot (he's the WBA's #4 flyweight). Sakata is a relatively weak champion at flyweight but Ratanapol is in no way one of the best flyweights in the world and I'll still be surprised if he can defeat Sakata - especially in Japan.

It's either this or the best fighters have grown old or ring worn; Yodsanan Sor Nanthachai, Veeraphol Sahaprom, Somsak Sithchatchawal, Chatchai Sasakul, Sirimongkol Singwangcha, Pongsaklek Wonjongkam...all are on the downside of their career. Of these, Sirimongkol has the best chance of winning a title, followed by Yodsanan. Yodsanan is slow but carries a helluva punch which is why he's known as The Thai Tyson in Thailand.

Besides these guys, the top two guys vying for a title shot would have to be Poonsawat Kratingdaenggym and Panomroonglek Kratingdenggym. Poonsawat beat Ricardo Cordoba and Somsak Sithchatchawal and is skilled, ring smart, tough, and packs a wallop. He's fairly quick but doesn't get his combinations of fast enough to beat a fast-handed fighter (like Vladimir Sidorenko who he lost a decision to).

Panomroonglek is the Lumpini stadium Muay Thai champion and also ranked first at flyweight by the WBC. He's awesome in Muay Thai and has good skills as a boxer. However, sometimes with Thais, fighting the two sports can be a problem because of the different stances employed. In Muay Thai you don't bob-and-weave or roll under punches because you run the risk of getting kneed. Also, the Muay Thai stance is more straight forward than in boxing. Panomroonglek tends to eat too many punches but is a sharp puncher. He hasn't really fought anyone IMO warranting his ranking but in his first fight he did defeat a tough Filipino fighter, Rocky Fuentes, in his first fight. The WBC champion, Daisuke Naito is awkward and has an irritating, herky-jerky style but he's beatable and the Thai may be able to snatch his title.

Oleydong Sithsamerchai is the minimumweight champion of the world and he is deserving of the title having defeated Eagle Kyowa. He's supposed to give Kyowa a rematch, in Japan, and he's extremely talented and smart inside the ring but can't crack an egg. His title reign is going to last as long as his speed holds out - that is if he can defeat Kyowa again.

As for my picks...

Don't know about Terdsak's next fight - I haven't seen Canoy fight but he's supposed to be a top prospect. Terdsak is tough as hell but is limited skillwise. If it goes to a decision in the PI, you gotta like Canoy.

Banal over Concepcion - not sure what the odds are in this one but my guess is Banal will be anywhere from -500 to -800. They're fighting in his hometown and Banal is the PI's top up and coming fighter.

This week....


Gamboa vs. Seeger: Gamboa's class will be the deciding factor in this fight. He's undefeated and he's at the stage in his career where he still believes he's invincible. Seeger is a decent boxer and IMO will hang with the Cuban until after the 6 1/2 round over/under. Pinnacle has the over at +181.

Andy Lee vs. Willie Gibbs: Lee is -411 which frankly is a bit too steep but he'll probably end up winning the bout. Gibbs has been KO'd in two of his three losses and Lee can punch. After losing to Brian Vera in his last fight, Lee needs to come back strong and win by KO. For his part, Gibbs has 16 KO's in 20 wins. I don't see this bout going over the 7 1/2 over/under. Under at -201.

Williams vs. McDermott: If you want to take a chance, bet McDermott simply because Danny Williams isn't always at his fights and McDermott can punch a little. Both guys are chiny so a better bet IMO would be to bet the under 7 1/2 at -161.

I'll bet the following parlay (medium-large):

Williams
Lee
Gamboa

= 1.57