First off this card is very tough to pick and bet . This card is not the best ,but a solid card.
Quinton Jackson (-260) vs. Forrest Griffin (+200)
This if for the 205lb Title .We all know Rampage has fought some tough guys in his career and is 3-0 in the UFC (28-6 MMA record) with wins over Eastmen , Liddell and Henderson . He has had a long month layoff and was up to 240lb and had to get back in shape . Rampage has a great trainer with Juanita Ibara.
Forrest Griffin ( Tuf 1 winner 6-2 in the UFC 15-4 MMA record) is coming off a huge win over Muarico Shogun Rua who was at time #1 fighter of the world at 205lb and Forrest destroyed Shogun.Forrest is a diffrent type of fighter after a Jardine loss a few years ago . He has become a more well rounded smarter fighter not just a brawler type that fought Bonnar and Tito Ortiz .He also Has been Training with great partners ( W silva who beat Rampage 2 times )
Rampage and forrest are good on there feet . Rampage has the power advantage. rampage is the better wrestler . Forrest is the better in BJJ and has the cardio advantage and a Huge 205lb ( weighs normally around 230-240 ).
Im a Fan of both fighters .Very Close one to call but i have to go with Rampage .Forrest i just dont think is ready to be champ . The great win against Shogun was great ,but was not the same Shogun that fought in Pride ( very small ,no steroids)and was coming off major Knee surgery . Nothing to take away from Forrest performance that night.
Prediction - Rampage via 2-3 rnd TKO , I see Rampage pressing the action on his feet trying cut angles off of Forrest with powerful striking and maybe Take him down with a slam and pounding away.Forrest can win this fight if he takes it to the later rnd and fights a close to perfect fight buy dont see that happening.
Rampage -265 ( medium size play here even with the chalk)
Patrick Cote (+110) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-140)
Should be fight of the night here Classic Striker vs Grappler .
Cote ( former TUF 4 Finalist 3-4 in the UFC 12-4 MMA record)is coming off some big wins KO wins over Grove and Mcfedries .Almeida is a top Grappler(1-0 in the UFC 9-2 MMA record) but is coming off retirement and has only fought a few times from 2004-2008. This fight is for a future tittle shot at 185lb.
A few weeks ago i was really thinking Almeda was going to get this fight to the ground quick and Submit Cote quickly .All Cotes losses have been from Decs or Subs . Cote has big KO power and has been working with GSP and Olympic Wrestlers on his takedown defense. To close to here thats why the odds are so close.
Prediction - If Cote Can keep it on his feet its going to be a KO or TKO for Patrick . Almeida will stand a little and will try to get the takedown.Im very torn but will take Alemida bye Sub or gnp if he can avoid Cotes heavy hands.
Ricardo Almeida -125
( small play and a few parlays but will take a few parlays with Cote since this is such a close fight on paper )
Joe Stevenson (-240) vs. Gleison Tibau (+185)
This should be another tough fight . Stevenson( former TUF winner 5-2 in the UFC 28-8 MMA record) is coming off a tough title fight loss against BJ penn .Tibau (3-2 in the UFC 15-5 MMA record) is coming off a tough loss to Tyson Griffen . Tibau Fights with American Top Team with some great grapplers . His first fight in the UFC was at 170lb and loss to Nick Diaz after that fight he cut to 155lb and is a huge 155lb fighter. Joe was a ex 170lb fighter also but is lot shorter.
Both guys are grapplers . Tibau has the Advantage on his feet ,Stevenson has the Wrestling and GNP advantage .The jujitsu game is pretty even .
Prediction if Tibau can keep this on his feet or stay from being on his back he has a great chance of winning . Steveson needs to take this to the ground stay on top and GNP with elbows and punches or go for a choke all of his strong points . The chalk is a little high on Joe going with Tibau bye slit dec upset.
Prediction- Gleison Tibau +185 ( small play and will have Steveson in a few parlays).
Josh Koscheck (-315) vs. Chris Lytle (+240)
Way to much chalk for this play . Koshcheck(8-2 in the UFC10-2 MMA record) is improving every fight from the early days just being a wrestler. not a big fan of his but a he is a great athelete.Chris Lytle (4-7 in the UFC 25-15-5 MMA record) is savy veteran and has a decent shot of winning this fight . His losses in the UFC where against top talent(Hughes,Alves,Serra,Lawler,Karo ,Riggs)His losses have been bye dec or cuts Tko never been KO or Sub in over 40 fights against top talent.
Prediction-Lytle has the stand up advantage and Jujitsu adv . Koshcheck has the great wrestling adv and the power and strength and has heavy hands ( training with AKA in San Jose).Lytle has a good chance as a dog if he can keep it on his feet and land some strikes .But i see Koshcheck as the superior athelete and to much to handle for Lytle.Josh bye split dec.
Josh Koshcheck -315
( no play here or parlay for me . might throw a very small play on Lytle to upset.)
Tyson Griffin (-260)vs Marcus Aurelio (+200)
This fight should be alot closer than the odds have it .Tyson Griffen (4-1 in the UFC 11-1 MMA record)but has only finished one fight in the UFC 4 wins bye dec and 2 split against Guida in a controvery fight that he won and Edgar that he lost in a close fight , He has been in some exciting fights and look for this one to be another.He is a very well rounded fighter great wrestler , good striker and underrated Jujitsu . He used to Train with Cesar Gracie and the Diaz boys ,but now trains at xtreme Couture.Remember this is only guy to beat Urijah Faber.
Marcus Aurelio (2-1 in the UFC 16-5 MMA record) former Pride star has a huge win over the best 160lb of the world Gomi.Most of his wins are bye Submissions.He is a World Champion Grappler out of American TopTeam.His loss in the UFC was his first fight against a tought Clay Guida.
Im leaning towards Tyson since he is a well rounded fighter and has the adv in striking and wrestleing. Marcus has the major Jujitsu Adv but i dont see him keeping tyson down on the ground to get the submission . This fight is big for both fighters for a future Title shot. Look for another face paced fight and alot mixed up fighting of ground and standing with Tyson getting the better at standing and looking for a KO .Look for Marcus to see if Tyson makes any mistakes on the ground and go for the Sub.
Prediction - Tyson Griffen -260
( this a no play for me or thrown in with a parlay )
Auerilo is not a bad small underdog pick since the chalk is a little to high on Griffen.
This is UFC card is the first ive seen that every underdog is pretty good and has a decent chance of winning .
Sorry for the long post .Hope to have a decent night Tommorrow
Quinton Jackson (-260) vs. Forrest Griffin (+200)
This if for the 205lb Title .We all know Rampage has fought some tough guys in his career and is 3-0 in the UFC (28-6 MMA record) with wins over Eastmen , Liddell and Henderson . He has had a long month layoff and was up to 240lb and had to get back in shape . Rampage has a great trainer with Juanita Ibara.
Forrest Griffin ( Tuf 1 winner 6-2 in the UFC 15-4 MMA record) is coming off a huge win over Muarico Shogun Rua who was at time #1 fighter of the world at 205lb and Forrest destroyed Shogun.Forrest is a diffrent type of fighter after a Jardine loss a few years ago . He has become a more well rounded smarter fighter not just a brawler type that fought Bonnar and Tito Ortiz .He also Has been Training with great partners ( W silva who beat Rampage 2 times )
Rampage and forrest are good on there feet . Rampage has the power advantage. rampage is the better wrestler . Forrest is the better in BJJ and has the cardio advantage and a Huge 205lb ( weighs normally around 230-240 ).
Im a Fan of both fighters .Very Close one to call but i have to go with Rampage .Forrest i just dont think is ready to be champ . The great win against Shogun was great ,but was not the same Shogun that fought in Pride ( very small ,no steroids)and was coming off major Knee surgery . Nothing to take away from Forrest performance that night.
Prediction - Rampage via 2-3 rnd TKO , I see Rampage pressing the action on his feet trying cut angles off of Forrest with powerful striking and maybe Take him down with a slam and pounding away.Forrest can win this fight if he takes it to the later rnd and fights a close to perfect fight buy dont see that happening.
Rampage -265 ( medium size play here even with the chalk)
Patrick Cote (+110) vs. Ricardo Almeida (-140)
Should be fight of the night here Classic Striker vs Grappler .
Cote ( former TUF 4 Finalist 3-4 in the UFC 12-4 MMA record)is coming off some big wins KO wins over Grove and Mcfedries .Almeida is a top Grappler(1-0 in the UFC 9-2 MMA record) but is coming off retirement and has only fought a few times from 2004-2008. This fight is for a future tittle shot at 185lb.
A few weeks ago i was really thinking Almeda was going to get this fight to the ground quick and Submit Cote quickly .All Cotes losses have been from Decs or Subs . Cote has big KO power and has been working with GSP and Olympic Wrestlers on his takedown defense. To close to here thats why the odds are so close.
Prediction - If Cote Can keep it on his feet its going to be a KO or TKO for Patrick . Almeida will stand a little and will try to get the takedown.Im very torn but will take Alemida bye Sub or gnp if he can avoid Cotes heavy hands.
Ricardo Almeida -125
( small play and a few parlays but will take a few parlays with Cote since this is such a close fight on paper )
Joe Stevenson (-240) vs. Gleison Tibau (+185)
This should be another tough fight . Stevenson( former TUF winner 5-2 in the UFC 28-8 MMA record) is coming off a tough title fight loss against BJ penn .Tibau (3-2 in the UFC 15-5 MMA record) is coming off a tough loss to Tyson Griffen . Tibau Fights with American Top Team with some great grapplers . His first fight in the UFC was at 170lb and loss to Nick Diaz after that fight he cut to 155lb and is a huge 155lb fighter. Joe was a ex 170lb fighter also but is lot shorter.
Both guys are grapplers . Tibau has the Advantage on his feet ,Stevenson has the Wrestling and GNP advantage .The jujitsu game is pretty even .
Prediction if Tibau can keep this on his feet or stay from being on his back he has a great chance of winning . Steveson needs to take this to the ground stay on top and GNP with elbows and punches or go for a choke all of his strong points . The chalk is a little high on Joe going with Tibau bye slit dec upset.
Prediction- Gleison Tibau +185 ( small play and will have Steveson in a few parlays).
Josh Koscheck (-315) vs. Chris Lytle (+240)
Way to much chalk for this play . Koshcheck(8-2 in the UFC10-2 MMA record) is improving every fight from the early days just being a wrestler. not a big fan of his but a he is a great athelete.Chris Lytle (4-7 in the UFC 25-15-5 MMA record) is savy veteran and has a decent shot of winning this fight . His losses in the UFC where against top talent(Hughes,Alves,Serra,Lawler,Karo ,Riggs)His losses have been bye dec or cuts Tko never been KO or Sub in over 40 fights against top talent.
Prediction-Lytle has the stand up advantage and Jujitsu adv . Koshcheck has the great wrestling adv and the power and strength and has heavy hands ( training with AKA in San Jose).Lytle has a good chance as a dog if he can keep it on his feet and land some strikes .But i see Koshcheck as the superior athelete and to much to handle for Lytle.Josh bye split dec.
Josh Koshcheck -315
( no play here or parlay for me . might throw a very small play on Lytle to upset.)
Tyson Griffin (-260)vs Marcus Aurelio (+200)
This fight should be alot closer than the odds have it .Tyson Griffen (4-1 in the UFC 11-1 MMA record)but has only finished one fight in the UFC 4 wins bye dec and 2 split against Guida in a controvery fight that he won and Edgar that he lost in a close fight , He has been in some exciting fights and look for this one to be another.He is a very well rounded fighter great wrestler , good striker and underrated Jujitsu . He used to Train with Cesar Gracie and the Diaz boys ,but now trains at xtreme Couture.Remember this is only guy to beat Urijah Faber.
Marcus Aurelio (2-1 in the UFC 16-5 MMA record) former Pride star has a huge win over the best 160lb of the world Gomi.Most of his wins are bye Submissions.He is a World Champion Grappler out of American TopTeam.His loss in the UFC was his first fight against a tought Clay Guida.
Im leaning towards Tyson since he is a well rounded fighter and has the adv in striking and wrestleing. Marcus has the major Jujitsu Adv but i dont see him keeping tyson down on the ground to get the submission . This fight is big for both fighters for a future Title shot. Look for another face paced fight and alot mixed up fighting of ground and standing with Tyson getting the better at standing and looking for a KO .Look for Marcus to see if Tyson makes any mistakes on the ground and go for the Sub.
Prediction - Tyson Griffen -260
( this a no play for me or thrown in with a parlay )
Auerilo is not a bad small underdog pick since the chalk is a little to high on Griffen.
This is UFC card is the first ive seen that every underdog is pretty good and has a decent chance of winning .
Sorry for the long post .Hope to have a decent night Tommorrow