UFC 86 Predictions

[The HOFF]

Corey Hill over Justin Buchholz
Melvin Guillard over Dennis Siver
Jorge Gurgel over Cole Miller
Gabriel Gonzaga over Justin McCully

Marcus Aurelio over Tyson Griffin
- Griffin's win over Thiago Tavares doesn't look that impressive after Tavares got KO'd by Matt Wiman. Griffin doesn't finish fights and usually goes to the scorecards. I like Aurelio in a small upset maybe catching Griffin in a submission.

Josh Koscheck over Chris Lytle
- Koscheck has improved his striking as shown by his stoppage over Hazelett. His takedowns are unstoppable. Lylte can't hang with the athleticism of Koscheck.

Joe Stevenson over Gleison Tibeau
- Look for Stevenson to bounce back after getting destroyed by BJ Penn. I haven't seen anything from Tibeau that makes me think he has a chance against Stevenson.

Patrick Cote over Ricardo Almeida
- A nice win over Drew McFedries makes me think Cote can take this fight pretty easily. Staying on the feet is the best strategy for Cote.

Forrest Griffin over Quinton Jackson
- My head says Rampage, my heart says Forrest. Rampage will take the first 2-3 rounds. I think this fight stays on the feet for awhile before Rampage takes it to the ground. Forrest can withstand a beating. If Rampage can't finish this fight after 3 rounds I think conditioning plays a role and I see Forrest finding some way to pull out a big upset in the last 2 rounds. So if Forrest dosen't get KO'd and can survive past the 3rd round I think he can take it.

[viciousfist]

Good picks. The only one I completely disagree with is Aurelio over Tyson Griffin. Griffin has been far too effective (if unspectacular) in his last three fights since losing to Edgar.

I also think Rampage has an edge on Forrest, but not as much as many people think. From what I've seen, most wouldn't bet on Griffin at anything less than +300, but I think there might just be enough value to take him at what he's at now, around +250.

As for Cote/Almeida, this is a fight I would avoid altogether unless I could get exceptional value one way or the other. Four years ago, I'd lay money at any odds of Almeida amputating a part of Cote's body within the first round. Now, there are just too many questions about whether or not Almeida's skills have diminished. I still think you have to give the edge to the guy who's better on the ground, but not by much in this case.

[Jacey]

I think mostly faves on this show, I have small wagers on Stevenson and Koscheck