Tito Ortiz by 3 round decision +630?

THE_LOCKSMITH · 07-31-11, 04:01 PM

yea, a good hedge bet if you got Rashad in some parlays

MMAbetMASTA · 07-31-11, 06:19 PM

definitely like that. I got tito str8 up at +330, I think that will drop a lot and he'll be around +250 come fight night if not worse. I pick rashad, but the value is in tito and I give him a legit chance to upset.

NutsINyoMOUTH · 07-31-11, 07:13 PM

Good value but he's not winning against Rashad

Wrecked · 07-31-11, 08:56 PM

Rashad isn't as bad as he thinks he is. I would risk a little bit on Tito at this value. Play a few small parlays with him

capone1899 · 07-31-11, 11:06 PM

If you are going to bet Ortiz decision is the best idea imo

Kaladarus · 07-31-11, 11:10 PM

Obviously Rashad should win this fight, but a small play at +630 isn't bad at all. I might play them both by decision depending on the odds closer to fight time.

NutsINyoMOUTH · 08-01-11, 12:32 AM

do u have to post the same thread on this website AND sherdog?

bjpenn85 · 08-01-11, 02:22 AM

haha nice

omalley21 · 08-01-11, 08:50 AM

I doubt the smart money is on Tito at all.

Squareguy · 08-01-11, 02:05 PM

He won 2 rounds in their first fight and Rashad is coming off of a 15 month lay off.

By decison is a great bet.

sirchadwick1 · 08-01-11, 02:27 PM

I never bet on Tito, but I'll put a little on him by decision here at +644 (current line). I'm probably being blinded by hist last performance though.

ReBEL`LiON · 08-06-11, 05:25 AM

none of you guys gave much insight or much breakdown of how the fight may go so i posted on another forum. although sherdog is pretty retarded but there's some smart posters sometimes

i thought this was a cappers forum?

GunShard · 08-06-11, 05:32 AM

What if this ends in a draw?

ufcmma36 · 08-06-11, 09:59 AM

Originally posted by GunShard

What if this ends in a draw?

Then whoever took the draw at +6000 is a happy camper

Kaladarus · 08-06-11, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by ReBEL`LiON

none of you guys gave much insight or much breakdown of how the fight may go so i posted on another forum. although sherdog is pretty retarded but there's some smart posters sometimes

i thought this was a cappers forum?

What do you want to know? Your bet is +630 should someone tell you to unload on it? There's not much to cap here. Before his last fight Tito hasn't finished anyone not named Ken Shamrock since 2001. Rashad has only ever been finished by Machida and has survived some big shots in has past fights which have probably been bigger shots than Tito can give. Rashad should have an advantage everywhere. Tito's most likely way to win here is by decision. You shouldn't really worry about a bet like this and it will probably not get much attention in a handicapping forum because realistically this can never be more than a small-very small play.

You have to consider what you expect from this play. How much value does this play have to you? If you believe this outcome happens 1/5 times then there is value, but because of variance you should not be making this play big. If you have one bet like this every event and in the course of a year end up going 1 for every 5 you will make decent money. However, there should be a lot more money to be made on straight bets probably between -200/+200. The best advice I can give you here is to make a small play here and move on to bigger and better things. Focus on fights that you can make medium-big size plays on. There's a reason people haven't taken too much time saying more than what has already been said.

Pabinator · 08-06-11, 11:26 AM

I thought all the main events were going to be 5 rounds from now on???

omalley21 · 08-06-11, 12:56 PM

All main events are 5 rounders starting at ufc 138 i believe. To the OP, Tito isn't gonna win so it's not really a good bet. However if he does win, it would be a decision or possibly a submission but most likely a decision. If you want to win take rashad by decision.

Varker · 08-06-11, 01:24 PM

i don't think tito will win but good value

raidersfan · 08-06-11, 01:28 PM

The only issue that concerns me with Rashad is his time out of the ring. Tito has been in there and should be in shape considering the fast turnaround, this fight I believe comes down to who has the best cardio. Can tito outlast Rashad? at +630 I say its worth a shot.

PaperTrail07 · 08-06-11, 02:29 PM

wow what amazing value here------this is by farrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrr the best value i have seen in over a year================what a ******* bet I AM PUMPD

PaperTrail07 · 08-06-11, 02:29 PM

even ortiz at plus 350---------------------------------------he beat bader and it wasnt a fluke---he could be bringing the heat!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

PaperTrail07 · 08-06-11, 02:31 PM

unless bader was told to lose that fight for $$$ which I could eassssssssily see happening

PaperTrail07 · 08-06-11, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by ReBEL`LiON

Looks like the best option for this fight. No way I'm playing anything Rashad because the odds are simply not good enough.

You can either stay away from this fight altogether if you're an Evans backer, or take Ortiz for the great value here. Smart money WOULD to take Ortiz straight up +330 but at +630 how can you ignore that. But I have a feeling there will be more stand up in this fight and less wrestling than people may think which is something to consider.

What exactly are insiders seeing about this fight that we aren't? Most people are giving Ortiz a chance here but as I recall, Ortiz by dec. opened up at +530, dropped to +430, then again to +695, and now it's +630. I've been keeping a close eye on these odds but why all the jumps?

This fight is a toss up for me and honestly from a non-betting stand point, I'm picking Rashguard to win this fight but +630 is too much to pass up and I will be taking this.

i couldnt agree more......................

TheDane · 08-06-11, 03:16 PM

Lets go TITO

Jordan23 · 08-06-11, 03:40 PM

Rashad is going to win this fight by whatever he wants!

RealBets · 08-06-11, 06:27 PM

cashing in with TITO. Lets do this!

Pabinator · 08-06-11, 07:57 PM

I do think this line should be closer but I still think Tito wont be able to stop Rashaad in the later round, but it could go either way

spargament · 08-06-11, 09:15 PM

I'd love to see Tito prove me wrong. I said stay away from the last fight with Bader, and frankly there isn't much value in most of the lines for this fight, but I still threw rashad into a couple of parlays, and am of the firm belief that Tito cannot win this fight. Rashad was expecting an EXPLOSIVE wrestler in Phil Davis, and gets a major break in the sense that he doesn't have to deal with NEARLY the same level of athleticism and explosiveness, the only real disadvantage in the switch of fighters for Rashad is whatever amount of guile and experience edge Ortiz has over davis...Unless Rashad comes out worse than he did in Round 3 of the Thiago fight, this isn't gonna be close