Rafini's MMA Picks

[rafini]

Been lurking on the forums for awhile. Bet a lot of MMA so I figured I'd start posting my picks here.

Strikeforce
Fedor 3.94 units to win 1.75 units (Sportbook -225)
Henderson by decision .5 units to win 2.43 units (5 Dimes +485)


Upcoming cards already bet on:

UFC 133
Hallman .938 units to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +160) - plan to hedge half a unit on Ebersole
Hamill .917 units to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +150, +200) - jumped on it too early, hope to hedge a little off
Ortiz .75 units to win 2.25 units (Bookmaker +300)


UFC 137
Penn 2.19 units to win 1.75 units (Bookmaker -125)

[Hannibal]

I have a very similar play on the fedor fight, but got better prices
Fedor to win at -201, and some of that hedged with hendo dec at +550

[jesuseatsnubs]

I have a very similar play on the fedor fight, but got better prices
Fedor to win at -201, and some of that hedged with hendo dec at +550

can I ask what sportsbook u use ?

Pinnacle does not offer props for MMA .. damit lol

but always fast payment within minutes .. fast email support .. they just need more betting options for MMA

[Hannibal]

got fedor at that price on pinnacle
and hendo decision was at 5dimes

[rafini]

I have a very similar play on the fedor fight, but got better prices
Fedor to win at -201, and some of that hedged with hendo dec at +550

When I first started looking at that play Hendo was at +550, but he dropped by the time I finally pulled the trigger.

[rafini]

Live Betting
Strikeforce
Tate .6 units to win .5 units (Bookmaker, -120)

[Kaladarus]

can I ask what sportsbook u use ?

Pinnacle does not offer props for MMA .. damit lol

but always fast payment within minutes .. fast email support .. they just need more betting options for MMA

Are you sure you know about cashing out? I don't think losing your money counts as getting paid out... Although I'm sure pinnacle appreciates your repeated donations.

[rafini]

RESULTS
Strikeforce
Fedor 3.94 units to win 1.75 units (Sportbook -225) - Loss
Henderson by decision .5 units to win 2.43 units (5 Dimes +485) - Loss
Tate .6 units to win .5 units (Bookmaker, -120) - Win

Record: 1-1, -3.94 units

[bjpenn85]

rafini, in 50 50 fights do always go for the underdog. Good luck next time!

[Kaladarus]

rafini, in 50 50 fights do always go for the underdog. Good luck next time!

Obviously he didn't handicap this fight at 50/50 and judging from the line movement there was practically nobody that did.

This is awful advice if you think a fight is 50/50 and someone is +250 you should never "go for the underdog". You should pound the shit out of the underdog.

[NunyaBidness]

Obviously he didn't handicap this fight at 50/50 and judging from the line movement there was practically nobody that did.

This is awful advice if you think a fight is 50/50 and someone is +250 you should never "go for the underdog". You should pound the shit out of the underdog.

If you think a fight is 50/50 and someone is +250 you should probably rethink your handicapping ability first.

[PunisherIND]

If you think a fight is 50/50 and someone is +250 you should probably rethink your handicapping ability first.

not necessarily. recent examples:

leben +210 vs wanderlei
dan henderson +245 vs fedor
dos anjos +200 vs sotiropolous
javier vasquez +210 vs stevenson
matt brown +220 vs john howard
clay guida +210 vs pettis

if you capped any of these fights at 50/50, i would say you are a smart man.

[bjpenn85]

Punisher, thank you! MMA very different from other sports when it comes to betting!!

[v1y]

If you think a fight is 50/50 and someone is +250 you should probably rethink your handicapping ability first.

And my consistent winnings tell me I'm right, and the market is way way off.

[rafini]

UFC 133
Ortiz .75 units to win 2.25 units (Bookmaker +300)
Hallman .938 units to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +160) - plan to hedge half a unit on Ebersole
Hamill .917 units to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +150, +200)
added Gustafsson .5 units to win .303 units (Sportsbook -165), now have .614 to win 1 unit on Hamill

[bjpenn85]

Big mistake not going big on gustafsson. I really dont understand where your head is at. and ortiz? jesus. youre not thread worthy at all.

Get back to the classrom and learn, butt off course, good luck!

[rafini]

UFC 133
Ortiz .75 units to win 2.25 units (Bookmaker +300)
added Evans by decision .975 to win .75 units (Sportsbook -130)

Hallman .938 to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +160) - plan to hedge half a unit on Ebersole

Hamill .917 to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +150, +200)
Gustafsson .5 to win .303 units (Sportsbook -165), now have .614 to win 1 unit on Hamill

[rafini]

Ortiz .75 units to win 2.25 units (Bookmaker +300)
Evans by decision .975 to win .75 units (Sportsbook -130)

Hallman .938 to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +160)
added Ebersole .5 to win .515 unites (5 Dimes +103), now have .4225 to win 1 unit on Hallman

Hamill .917 to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +150, +200)
Gustafsson .5 to win .303 units (Sportsbook -165), now have .614 to win 1 unit on Hamill

[NunyaBidness]

Big mistake not going big on gustafsson. I really dont understand where your head is at. and ortiz? jesus. youre not thread worthy at all.

Get back to the classrom and learn, butt off course, good luck!

I love it.

[rafini]

UFC 133
Ortiz .75 units to win 2.25 units (Bookmaker +300)
Evans by decision .975 to win .75 units (Sportsbook -130)

Hallman .938 to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +160)
Ebersole .5 to win .515 unites (5 Dimes +103), now have .4225 to win 1 unit on Hallman

Hamill .917 to win 1.5 units (5 Dimes +150, +200)
Gustafsson .5 to win .303 units (Sportsbook -165), now have .614 to win 1 unit on Hamill

added parley: Ortiz-Evans starts round 2/not Ebersole by sub/not Gustafsson by sub/not Yahya by KO/TKO 2.48 to win 1 unit (5 Dimes)

[bjpenn85]

u should not have a thread at all man, youre a waste off time

[jin2daj]

u should not have a thread at all man, youre a waste off time

haha thats mean dude.

[rafini]

UFC 133 Results: 1-3, -1.762 units
Overall: 2-4, -5.702 units

UFC on Versus
Figueroa 2.55 to win 1 unit (-255, Bookmaker)

[rafini]

UFC on Versus
Figueroa 2.55 to win 1 unit (-255, Bookmaker)

added:
Hardy 1 to win 1 unit (EV, Bodog)

[rafini]

UFC on Versus
Figueroa 2.55 to win 1 unit (-255, Bookmaker)
Hardy 1 to win 1 unit (EV, Bodog)

added:
parlay: Hettes / Henderson-Miller starts round 2 / not Lytle by KO or TKO - 1.98 to win 1 unit (5 Dimes)

[rafini]

UFC on Versus
Figueroa 2.55 to win 1 unit (-255, Bookmaker)
Hardy 1 to win 1 unit (EV, Bodog)
parlay: Hettes / Henderson-Miller starts round 2 / not Lytle by KO or TKO - 1.98 to win 1 unit (5 Dimes)

added:
parlay: Sadollah / not Hardy by sub / not Henderson by sub / not Oliveria by TKO or KO - 2.47 to win 1 unit (5 Dimes)