Gustafson vs Hamill Thread

Vaughany · 07-22-11, 03:25 PM

As a back up to my Gustafsson play, I'm throwin fight to go distance in a couple parlays, and Hamill by decision when its available will be in a parlay as well.

Beelzebubzy · 07-22-11, 03:30 PM

Te huna is a big LHW and Gustaffson was able to scramble out successfully.

Similar to V, my plays will be
fight goes the Distance
Hamill by Decision and Gustaffson straight.

I wonder what the line would have been for AG/Vladdy

sirchadwick1 · 07-22-11, 04:02 PM

I like the Mauler a lot against Hamill. His height and technique is going to pose some big problems for Hamill... he's also been working hard on his wrestling and TDD so with Hamill's less than stellar MMA-wrestling we will doubfully witness a laynpray session here. There are a lot of guys on various forums drooling over Hamill's line right now thinking it's a gift... but I disagree. In general bettors/fans are thinking that Hamill just looked bad against Rampage and that Gustafsson is no where near that level of competition... but I think he shows us in this fight he can be a legit contender. All of Matt's standup is so telegraphed that I don't see Gustafsson having trouble there. I expect that we see Hamill try to get inside and put constant pressure on the Mauler, but he'll be getting countered as Alexander's standup is much better. I have 2u Gustafsson at -210 and I'm likely to add a couple more if it gets to under -190 before fight night.

koscheckbaby · 07-22-11, 04:26 PM

In Hamill's losses, other than Bisping, he's looked really overmatched. I'm hoping Gustafson can stop his takedowns and hurt him quickly. Hamill does have a chin though, so it'll be interesting to see the type of punishment he can possibly take.

Hannibal · 07-22-11, 05:04 PM

did you pay worse than -205 for AG?i dont like the price..Like you said, te huna was able to get him down. Gus managed to get back up against him... but te huna doesnt have the same kind of top control

Vaughany · 07-22-11, 05:40 PM

Franklin was offered the fight against The Mauler but turned it down citing that he "only wants the top of the heap". Hmmmmm

hels · 07-22-11, 06:18 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

As a back up to my Gustafsson play, I'm throwin fight to go distance in a couple parlays, and Hamill by decision when its available will be in a parlay as well.

I really don't know much about your plays as I haven't seen many of your posts. I just want to say that playing so many different angles in one fight is a horrible idea. Not just because you're guaranteeing yourself losses but the books take the biggest cuts on the fight outcomes (ko/tko, sub, dec). The best way to make money betting MMA is to find good dogs that have the ability to upset. This being said, you believe Gustaf is the better fighter but you think Hammy has a chance by making it a 3 rounder. Based on your logic I would play the O2.5. BOL

Vaughany · 07-22-11, 06:29 PM

Originally posted by hels

I really don't know much about your plays as I haven't seen many of your posts. I just want to say that playing so many different angles in one fight is a horrible idea. Not just because you're guaranteeing yourself losses but the books take the biggest cuts on the fight outcomes (ko/tko, sub, dec). The best way to make money betting MMA is to find good dogs that have the ability to upset. This being said, you believe Gustaf is the better fighter but you think Hammy has a chance by making it a 3 rounder. Based on your logic I would play the O2.5. BOL

Suggest u look at my record on my thread brah, arbs and hedges have done me well so far!

MMAbetMASTA · 07-23-11, 06:12 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I feel like most of us are on Gustafson, so I made a thread for this.

I just made a big bet on Gustafson, now I'm wondering if the pussy version of Hamill will try and turn this into lay and pray like he did with Tito. In general, his MMA wrestling has been less than stellar. He has basically no ground and pound or submissions. But he did show against Tito and Rampage basically zero interest in standing. Sometimes just being relentless for a takedown is all you need on the judges' cards. Prior to that, he usually was a zombie, walking forward, eating punches, and brawling.

I'm hoping that Alex has the TD defense and ability to stop Hamill in his tracks if Hamill tries wrestling. It was a little discouraging to see a mediocre fighter like Te Huna get Gustafson down in the last fight

How do you see this fight playing out?

I think if the 'pussy' version of hamill shows up he will probably win this fight.

Yet I don't think he will show up, and I think gustafson will get an early finish from matt being wreckless and sloppy and the feet while ditching a wrasslin' gameplan, as we've seen in the past.

However, I'm surprised so many of you on here are taking gustafson at those pricey odds - personally I would cap at -150/160 max - and that is a generous cap for me. I think gustafson wins, I just think it is risky at those higher odds and I'm sure come fight week there will be better fights with better odds to lay your money on. Te Huna was an interesting fight and I was impressed with gustafson's performance and ability to stay calm while be tossed around. Yet while hamill's wrestling and positional control is not what I would call 'A' level per se, its much, much better than te huna's and if matt does show up with a grappling minded gameplan I think he can def lay on gustafson for 3 rounds. In the end tho I think hamil throws a gameplan out the window, goes into a brawl, gets rocked and then guillotined by gustafson. GL to you all on this one!!!

NutsINyoMOUTH · 07-23-11, 06:18 PM

how much did u lose on bader?

koscheckbaby · 07-25-11, 02:06 PM

I still dont understand how Hamill took down and controlled Tito so easily. Tito has always had good MMA wrestling and Hamill's has been slow and sloppy. Was this just a really bad time for Tito's career?

sirchadwick1 · 07-25-11, 03:06 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

I still dont understand how Hamill took down and controlled Tito so easily. Tito has always had good MMA wrestling and Hamill's has been slow and sloppy. Was this just a really bad for Tito's career?

Was that fight before or after his back surgery?

koscheckbaby · 07-25-11, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Was that fight before or after his back surgery?

Not sure. He did have a year layoff prior to the fight.

sirchadwick1 · 07-25-11, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by koscheckbaby

Not sure. He did have a year layoff prior to the fight.

Ok, yeah I can't remember exactly... but I think that fight happened a year or so after his surgery and layoff.

jacktheknife · 07-25-11, 06:16 PM

Just rewatched Gustafson's last 4 fights. What's the grappling equivalent of flailing for the fences? Passing to the parking lot? Whatever, Gustafson does both.

I'm telling you, nothing about this kid says reliability, a lot to ride wages of 2-to-1 plus against a guy with the tools of Hamill.

In Hamill's losses, other than Bisping, he's looked really overmatched.

I think it's the rough time that Gustafson has in his wins that I think isn't getting the once-over it deserves. Gets taken down by Jimmy Tuna, has a bitch of a time keeping down Cyril Diabate, needs 2 or 3 tries to get a readily available submission, but it's his hands that are skewing the perception of him the most. His success on the feet seems to be from confidence more then awareness, which is good for catching a by-the-book Muay Thai trainer like Diabate off guard, but that doesn't bode well for a large sample of elevating opposition.

kmdubya · 07-28-11, 10:49 AM

I'm thinking about taking Hamill on this fight. Gustafson will not submit him, his striking is OK but there is no chance of TKO/KO. And because his nickname is not "Bones" there will not be any extended GnP. I think dropping a little on Hamill by TKO or decision is good value.

hels · 07-28-11, 05:04 PM

Originally posted by kmdubya

I'm thinking about taking Hamill on this fight. Gustafson will not submit him, his striking is OK but there is no chance of TKO/KO. And because his nickname is not "Bones" there will not be any extended GnP. I think dropping a little on Hamill by TKO or decision is good value.

I agree, Hamill has a chance and most likely it won't be by submission. BOL in what you play!

Mr.Kitty · 08-05-11, 01:58 PM

Chairib · 08-05-11, 02:29 PM

lol

thesox0311 · 08-05-11, 03:03 PM

I could honestly see a Hamill win by lay and pray. Dont underestimate his wrestling in this one. Hes also a bigger fighter, and stronger that the Mauler.

SHALOMbagelBOMB · 08-05-11, 03:21 PM

Originally posted by hels

I really don't know much about your plays as I haven't seen many of your posts. I just want to say that playing so many different angles in one fight is a horrible idea. Not just because you're guaranteeing yourself losses but the books take the biggest cuts on the fight outcomes (ko/tko, sub, dec). The best way to make money betting MMA is to find good dogs that have the ability to upset. This being said, you believe Gustaf is the better fighter but you think Hammy has a chance by making it a 3 rounder. Based on your logic I would play the O2.5. BOL

vaugany may be annoying, live on this website, and bet 0.0001 units per event, but he is up well over 300 units over the last year and a half I believe...if it ain't broke don't fix it...

I'll be on Gustafsson and Pierce both because vaugany's on em and the guys they're fighting are overrated by most tuf noobs

kmdubya · 08-05-11, 05:42 PM

Originally posted by thesox0311

I could honestly see a Hamill win by lay and pray. Dont underestimate his wrestling in this one. Hes also a bigger fighter, and stronger that the Mauler.

By far his biggest strength, that he never uses.

I like Hamill, but he dropped that part of his gameplan long ago. Not sure if it's his dumbass fault, or his coaching, but Hamill will try and strike (and do a poor job of it).

omalley21 · 08-05-11, 05:51 PM

I don't know why everyone loves Gustaffson so much. Or why everyone thinks Hamill is gonna trade punches with him?

I see a clear path to victory for Hamill taking him down and controlling him. Im gonna play hamill by decision. I think the safest play is the over though.

kmdubya · 08-05-11, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by omalley21

I don't know why everyone loves Gustaffson so much. Or why everyone thinks Hamill is gonna trade punches with him?

I see a clear path to victory for Hamill taking him down and controlling him. Im gonna play hamill by decision. I think the safest play is the over though.

Hamill has had a clear path in multiple fights. But he NEVER takes it. When was the last 3 RD GnP you saw from Hamill?

Agreed on the over for sure.

spargament · 08-05-11, 07:11 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Suggest u look at my record on my thread brah, arbs and hedges have done me well so far!

I laughed with and not at on this one. Well done...(and of course keep on winning, V)

spargament · 08-05-11, 07:13 PM

Originally posted by sirchadwick1

Was that fight before or after his back surgery?

It's all pretty much the same w/Tito if you're name isn't Ryan Bader, and/or Chuck Liddell isn't around knocking out any LEGITIMATE contenders.

Pew Pew · 08-06-11, 03:41 PM

What odds did you guys get for Gustafasson? Been looking at the line at Gus for the past 2 hours, and it's been going from -165 to -153 now @ small increments....

GunShard · 08-06-11, 05:01 PM

I see Gustaffson dominating Hamill. Like Jones dominating Shogun. Maybe I am wrong.

Mr.Kitty · 08-07-11, 04:17 AM

....

sirchadwick1 · 08-07-11, 07:53 AM

Thought it was a pretty easy call. Congrats to those who cashed!

kmdubya · 08-07-11, 11:01 AM

Just wanted to thank everyone on this thread. Re-evaluated my play on this fight and ended up taking Gustaffson. Still ended up a little down (as I played it going the distance) but I was way off on Gustaffson's abilities.

Vaughany · 08-08-11, 01:54 PM

Looks like Hamill is considering retiring

kmdubya · 08-08-11, 02:36 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Looks like Hamill is considering retiring

Officially retired today. Put it on his website.

I think the timing is right. He was not going to challenge at 205 anymore, and any future fights would likely be on the undercard against cans or up-and-comers.

sirchadwick1 · 08-08-11, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by Vaughany

Looks like Hamill is considering retiring

Maybe too soon for that... but if he doesn't want to evolve and use his biggest strength in the octagon it could be for the best. He's not getting any younger.