DREAM: Japan GP Final (July 16)

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

Champ Gegard Mousasi vs. Hiroshi Izumi (for light-heavyweight title)
Champ Hiroyuki Takaya vs. Kazuyuki Miyata (for featherweight title)
Champ Marius Zaromskis vs. Hayato Sakurai (welterweight non-title fight)
Masakazu Imanari vs. Hideo Tokoro (Japan bantamweight-tourney finale)
Keisuke Fujiwara vs. Kenji Osawa (Japan bantamweight-tourney third-place fight)
Todd Duffee vs. Nick Gaston
Willamy Freire vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
Bruno Carvalho vs. Eiji Mitsuoka

no UFC or StrikeForce for about 4 weeks so this card will have to do to get your mma betting fix this month

[koscheckbaby]

Considering Zaromskis is a piece of shit, if Sakurai has anything left, he should avenge that disgraceful first bout KO. Why does Mousasi waste his time with these Japanese cans? It should be nothing but good opposition for him from now on. But I guess he has Dream contractual obligations.

Williamy Freire? The same guy that demonstrated not a modicum of takedown defense against Waylon Lowe now facing Kawajiri? With how ****** up Japanese MMA results can be, Freire probably wins somehow, someway.

[Nick The Greek]

Rumor has it that Tim Hague will now be fighting Todd Duffee on this show. That would be a rematch of the fastest KO in UFC history and I can't imagine the fight going too differently this time around.

[Lusty_Argonian]

Placing Izumi in tons of parlays too add weight to them.
Not touching Takaya/Miyata
Not touching Zaromskis/Mach
Putting a small amount on Imanari via sub
Fujiwara vs Osawa is tough, if Fujiwara could avoid getting grinded on by the veteran Osawa, i'd be wiling to put a good amount if he's the underdog.
Duffee all the way
Kawajiri via decision, he's not going to lose to Fickett, but he sure as heck isn't going to stop him.
Small bet on Mitsuoka
Not touching Prangley/Mizuno

[Vaughany]

Placing Izumi in tons of parlays too add weight to them.
Not touching Takaya/Miyata
Not touching Zaromskis/Mach
Putting a small amount on Imanari via sub
Fujiwara vs Osawa is tough, if Fujiwara could avoid getting grinded on by the veteran Osawa, i'd be wiling to put a good amount if he's the underdog.
Duffee all the way
Kawajiri via decision, he's not going to lose to Fickett, but he sure as heck isn't going to stop him.
Small bet on Mitsuoka
Not touching Prangley/Mizuno

Wer u gettin these props?!

[bogbat]

Considering Zaromskis is a piece of shit, if Sakurai has anything left, he should avenge that disgraceful first bout KO. Why does Mousasi waste his time with these Japanese cans? It should be nothing but good opposition for him from now on. But I guess he has Dream contractual obligations.

Do you forget that prize fighting is his job and he is fighting for money?

[v1y]

mousasi will be -600 range
miyata better be -200
zaromskis -250
tokoro -140
osawa -130
duffee -300
kawajiri is now fighting fickett, and kawajiri will probably be -200. at that price though, i think i like fickett :\

[Lusty_Argonian]

Wer u gettin these props?!

I'm exclusive to 5dimes right now

[v1y]

I'm exclusive to 5dimes right now

yea but he's asking which bookie offers those props. no bookie afaik offers props on jmma.

[Lusty_Argonian]

That's why I'm pissed, I probably won't bet on Kawajiri or Imanari now.

[Nick The Greek]

Duffee has reportedly pulled out of the card now. Kawajiri and Imanari are the only guys I'll be betting on for this card.

[NunyaBidness]

Placing Izumi in tons of parlays too add weight to them.
Not touching Takaya/Miyata
Not touching Zaromskis/Mach
Putting a small amount on Imanari via sub
Fujiwara vs Osawa is tough, if Fujiwara could avoid getting grinded on by the veteran Osawa, i'd be wiling to put a good amount if he's the underdog.
Duffee all the way
Kawajiri via decision, he's not going to lose to Fickett, but he sure as heck isn't going to stop him.
Small bet on Mitsuoka
Not touching Prangley/Mizuno

Deciding who you're going to bet on in fights without lines is silly. Capping the line and betting where you find value is the only thing that matters.

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

ok then here are some lines

[koscheckbaby]

Any opinions on the odds out?

[Nick The Greek]

Def see value in Imanari at -125.

[Lusty_Argonian]

I just put Izumi in 3 different parlays

[reformed]

first of all why is mousasi such a huge favorite....its MMA. secondly, if he is that dominant why is he not in the UFC after 30+ fights?

[v1y]

first of all why is mousasi such a huge favorite....its MMA. secondly, if he is that dominant why is he not in the UFC after 30+ fights?

because he has a contract with strikeforce?

mousasi is such a big favourite because izumi is not on his level. it's a winnable fight for izumi since mousasi's wrestling is his weakness, and izumi has decent takedowns, but it's VERY likely mousasi knocks him out early.

i mean really, let's look at the odds on some of mousasi's recent fights:

-400 against jardine
-425 vs jake obrien
-1000 against mizuno
-1300 against goodridge
-500 against sokoudjou

he's considered a ufc level fighter who isn't in the ufc. that's the reality. izumi is considered a can, and he should have lost the decision to zikic.

[koscheckbaby]

The rest of the odds came out on Bookmaker. I'm sad that Prangley is -500 against Mizuno. Sergei was like -330 against Mizuno. Was hoping for -100s or -200s for Prangley. Oh well

[NunyaBidness]

The rest of the odds came out on Bookmaker. I'm sad that Prangley is -500 against Mizuno. Sergei was like -330 against Mizuno. Was hoping for -100s or -200s for Prangley. Oh well

I feel the same way.

I like Fickett +225 over Kawajiri.

[Educ8d Degener8]

I feel the same way.

I like Fickett +225 over Kawajiri.

Any particular reason why... stylistically? (not being a smartass)

I was open to the idea of Kawajiri as parlay material, but -285 is putting me off a bit...

[NunyaBidness]

Ugh, guess I should've waited for +350 at bodog.

[bjpenn85]

mizuno +300. The guy beat melvin manhoef. Its not the same style matchup, but the guy has decent striking and submissions. He also beat a great swedish prospect in latifi. Mizuno has a decent chin as well. A small play here.

[Lusty_Argonian]

26units on Imanari, Kawajiri, Miyata, and Fedor for the 30th

Oh boy do I need this win

[koscheckbaby]

mizuno +300. The guy beat melvin manhoef. Its not the same style matchup, but the guy has decent striking and submissions. He also beat a great swedish prospect in latifi. Mizuno has a decent chin as well. A small play here.

Prangley has solid striking, good submissions, and a good wrestling base. I've seen nothing out of Mizuno except that Manhoef tired himself out beating the crap out of him. I was hoping Prangley would be undervalued, since he's been subbed twice recently by top grapplers. I guess, bettors aren't fooled about this fight.

[v1y]

26units on Imanari, Kawajiri, Miyata, and Fedor for the 30th

Oh boy do I need this win

imanari is risky as hell man. hiroshi nakamura ain't that good, and he was able to stop imanari's submission attack.

[cheeese]

I like Bruno Carvalho over Eiji Mitsuoka.

[iQon]

Does anyone know if this will air in the States?

I thought HDNet would air it, but my guide only lists the Shark Fights card.

[brooks85]

damn, i hope its not another missed broadcast. I gotta put a pig shoulder on the smoker around 3am, i need something to watch.

[beaver4100]

anyone got a link to this?

[THE_LOCKSMITH]

congrats to the Mizuno backers, finishes off Prangley for the +375 win

[v1y]

wouldn't exactly call myself a mizuno backer, but i did think there was a little value on the line! (also had a tiny bit on fickett and ishikawa, so i'm up overall on the 3 value plays)

[Vaughany]

Mousasi TKO's Izumi in first round

[v1y]

shit if miyata wins i'll actually have a decent night. if he loses i'm just above even.

[rocky mattioli]

you could never have these long intermissions in a western venue....you have drunk fans climbing the walls....