To be honest, I kind of forgot about this fight being on the card, since I generally ignore it for betting purposes. Don't like Leben to win, but can't get behind Wand and his first fight in a year and a half. But the line on this fight not going 12 and a half minutes tempts me. Unless Leben goes in complete pussy mode(as tough as he is, he has taken the safe route a few times), doing lots of clinching against the cage and maybe pursuing takedowns, how are these guys going to swing on each other for 2 and a half rounds without someone falling? Both are heavy handed and it could be argued both have declining chins stemming from overall damage they've taken in their career.
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i grabbed "doesn`t go 3 rounds" at -130....and i think leben`s a live dog(i`d like the odds to get a bit more lucrative before i take the shot)....maybe leben will try and take silva down(i don`t see silva even considering it),but i doubt it....
i really think that silva might be a tad diminished...and who knows,maybe the lefty stance will give him a problem...
i expect substantial silva money to come in by post time...the guy has pacquaio-esque rabid dog supporters...Comment -
I just can't get behind Leben, because honestly I just don't think he's that good. I don't think his take a shot to give one style will work for him against a heavy-handed guy like Silva. But perhaps he keeps the fight in a safe zone and tries more grappling.Comment -
Chuck and Wanderlei went the distance...Comment -
What about under 1 round hedged with fotn? If these guys make it a few minutes, it's a good candidate, although there's lots of lighter weights here too. They can scrap.Comment -
That's an interesting idea... However, given the other bouts on this card, I fully expect Leben-Silva and Cruz-Faber to be the book's leading candidates for FOTN, so the payout on Leben-Silva may not hedge that well... I'm thinking Leben-Silva FOTN is gonna pay out in the neighborhood of +275 to +350... Still an interesting play you've suggested though
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Hard to get behind it at these odds, something to consider, Wandy has gone to the judges in 3 of 5 fights in the UFC.Comment -
Love the thinking behind this; just a shame that the "of the night" awards are often so hard to pin down. Just look at the last event: who would have expected Oliveira/Lentz to be such an exciting, awesome fight? And who would have expected Brown/Howard to be arguably the most dull fight on the card? Award winners are one of the hardest things to predict in my opinion.Comment -
True. In fact I've never bet on a fotn before. Heavy juice too. I'll take sub or KOtn props in the 2000 range because as u said anything can happen. Recently landed Weidman and garza sotn at 2100 and 3300 respectively. These guys said they're going for it though, and I believe them. Plus maybe the hype of them talking about it so much makes it an easy choice for Dana or whomever. I may hedge it with leben first rd if it's 400 or so. Don't see silva stopping leben. Hasn't had a KO in years. Jardine doesn't count, and neither does rocking Liddell or bisping.Comment -
Leben just got knocked out by Stann, who imo might have less power than Silva. I'm not sure but Leben's chin might be going, and I definitely think the wars that wanderlei has been in have affected him. I think I am going to stay away from this fight. I can see it being an exciting brawl or a 15 min grappling fest.
Anyways I'm open to other opinions.
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I have a confession to make I just went after I posted and dropped 10 on Leben, I'm such a troll.Leben just got knocked out by Stann, who imo might have less power than Silva. I'm not sure but Leben's chin might be going, and I definitely think the wars that wanderlei has been in have affected him. I think I am going to stay away from this fight. I can see it being an exciting brawl or a 15 min grappling fest. Anyways I'm open to other opinions.
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How many of you see this fight lasting past 2:30 of the 3rd round?Comment -
It's tough for me to picture it going the distance more than 30% of the time considering both of their styles ... but I do have a play on Leben by DEC at +528 for the hell of it.
Too may seem to be counting Leben out b/c of his last performance... the dude was sick as hell and it showed. He'll rebound. Wand has lost steam.Comment -
To be completely honest, Leben by decision is the result I least expect. I mean, he is always losing before he comes back. Wand is the better striker and grappler. If Leben wins a 3 round decision, that's almost worse for Wand's career than a KO. He could get caught standing. But to lose over the course of the fight to Leben? That drops him down to Jay Silva, Luigi Fioravanti territory. Even Kalib Starnes beat Leben by decisionComment -
Shit. I only put 200 on this. The fight lasted like 10 secondsComment
