question for the board...which way does the kim/condit line swing?

Kaladarus · 06-27-11, 06:12 PM

I think more money will go on Condit, but it's hard to say considering the current line movement. Kim seems to get faded a lot because of his boring style. Most fighters with Kim's style don't get much respect betting wise. In my opinion, you should take Condit now, but I'm just guessing. Hopefully, someone else can agree with me or give better insight.

Educ8d Degener8 · 06-27-11, 06:17 PM

I agree with Kalad.

After the initial "line settling" upon release, the line has moved toward Condit (-) and Kim (+) very slightly based on the bfo chart.

Ladle · 06-27-11, 06:19 PM

Don't think the line on Condit will get any better. People should be playing the Kim by decision line if they want to make a play on him.

As for the fight, I think the judging could potentially be crucial. Condit is going to tag Kim repeatedly in the stand-up, and Kim is going to take Condit down and possibly dominate him positionally at times. Part of me wants to favour Condit, as I feel he can get back up to his feet and really put the heat on a tiring Kim (Carlos has a history of completely taking over fights towards the end). The other part of me wants to favour Kim on the basis that the judges will probably show him some love simply for spending prolonged periods of time on top (which was the case in his fight against Nate Diaz, even though he was largely out-fought by Diaz from bottom).

Basically, it's a pick 'em fight in my opinion, so I don't see too much value in betting either way. I think the best play is Kim by decision hedged with Condit to win outright, as I don't see how Kim finishes him.

rocky mattioli · 06-27-11, 06:19 PM

Originally posted by Kaladarus

I think more money will go on Condit, but it's hard to say considering the current line movement. Kim seems to get faded a lot because of his boring style. Most fighters with Kim's style don't get much respect betting wise. In my opinion, you should take Condit now, but I'm just guessing. Hopefully, someone else can agree with me or give better insight.

i was thinking that most savvy mma wagerers might be on kim...and your more casual fan might look at condit`s higher profile(as you indicated).....

this will be one of the few times i am going against my better judgement(if i even wager) just because i have so much respect for a fighter.....

i can easily see kim grinding out a win....i expect it to go the distance and i think a distance fight probably leans kim`s way....

hey...this is cathartic

...i`m actually talking myself out of a condit wager....

brooks85 · 06-27-11, 06:21 PM

I know i would bet condit in this fight if I could control him so he wouldn't throw any kicks. But he will and im thinking it is going to cost him so im just going to sit back and watch this one.

rocky mattioli · 06-27-11, 06:25 PM

Originally posted by Ladle

I think it has potential to be a fight where the judging is crucial. Condit is going to tag Kim repeatedly in the stand-up, and Kim is going to take Condit down and possibly dominate him positionally at times. Part of me wants to favour Condit, as I feel he can get back up to his feet and really put the heat on a tiring Kim (Carlos has a history of completely taking over fights towards the end). The other part of me wants to favour Kim on the basis that the judges will probably show him some love simply for spending prolonged periods of time on top (which was the case in his fight against Nate Diaz, even though he was largely out-fought by Diaz from bottom).

Basically, it's a pick 'em fight in my opinion, so I don't see much value in betting either way. I think the best play is Kim by decision hedged with Condit to win outright, as I don't see how Kim finishes him.

well broken down.....they certainly aren`t giving condit walkovers....

and leben/silva?.....will they even bother putting a fotn line on this one?....faber/cruz?.....some seriously interesting bouts on this card....with the right matchmaking,big guys aren`t really a necessity....

very much anticipating saturday night...

GunShard · 06-27-11, 06:26 PM

Maybe this fight ends in a draw?

rocky mattioli · 06-27-11, 06:27 PM

Originally posted by brooks85

I know i would bet condit in this fight if I could control him so he wouldn't throw any kicks. But he will and im thinking it is going to cost him so im just going to sit back and watch this one.

thanks bud...it is a very difficult call...

koscheckbaby · 06-27-11, 08:07 PM

I'm not betting this fight. But I got this really deep feeling that Condit is just way too much of a killer to lose to DHK's stall out shit. I know Condit's takedown defense is a big liability and DHK loves to get on top and do nothing but control. But I really expect Condit to teach DHK the difference between a point fighter and a fighter.

Think about it. Nate Diaz arguably beat DHK and came close to finishing him. Why the **** couldn't a much better Condit not get the W?

RaiderNation MMA · 06-28-11, 03:00 AM

razor close fight yo

JoshB · 06-28-11, 08:44 AM

i just want this one to go the distance. Please don't finish him Carlos!!!

v1y · 06-28-11, 08:51 AM

Kim is a bad style matchup for Condit, but Condit is by far the biggest step up of Kim's career.

I think this is going to be a repeat of Mcdonald/Condit, without the stoppage at the end.

Mr.Kitty · 06-28-11, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by Ladle

Don't think the line on Condit will get any better. People should be playing the Kim by decision line if they want to make a play on him. As for the fight, I think the judging could potentially be crucial. Condit is going to tag Kim repeatedly in the stand-up, and Kim is going to take Condit down and possibly dominate him positionally at times. Part of me wants to favour Condit, as I feel he can get back up to his feet and really put the heat on a tiring Kim (Carlos has a history of completely taking over fights towards the end). The other part of me wants to favour Kim on the basis that the judges will probably show him some love simply for spending prolonged periods of time on top (which was the case in his fight against Nate Diaz, even though he was largely out-fought by Diaz from bottom). Basically, it's a pick 'em fight in my opinion, so I don't see too much value in betting either way. I think the best play is Kim by decision hedged with Condit to win outright, as I don't see how Kim finishes him.

I completely agree with the analysis and picks. Condit is sort of a slow starter and Kim will probably not have too much trouble taking him to the mat. I dont expect him to finish Kim from his back, because he is a great grappler but tends to have problems with his cardio. That combined with a potential grueling ground battle and Condits tendency to finish strong, it will probably come down to a close decision unless Condit can end the match standing.

hels · 06-28-11, 02:26 PM

Over 2.5 rounds is probably the best play on this fight if you're leaning Kim. If you're leaning Condit play the Under 2.5 rounds. Actually I just looked at Pinnacle's line:
Under 2.5 @ 3.6
Over 2.5 @ 1.299

This would lead me to believe this would be in Kim's favour, no??