These two fights seem main card worthy to me more than the Mitrione and Howard fights. However, at least we get to see them on facebook stream. Anyone see betting opportunities here? Is Oliviera slick enough to beat the grinder Lentz and will Tyson has a good cut to 145? I really do like Griffin to win, since I think Manny isn't that good. He got that puncher's chance win over Mike Brown, but he hasn't really been impressive to me. Griffin will be much faster standing and probably can win a grappling match too.
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I expect griffin to win too, but I'm sure the odds will reflect that.
If somehow he opens at -200 or so, I'll go big on him.Comment -
Zuffa want to see Griffin get back on the winning track and that's why this fight was put together. Gamburyan wasn't skilled enough to cut the mustard at 155, and struggles when his opponents try to take him down (Tavares, Sherk). Griffin will probably be a fairly big favourite because of that.
Oliviera/Lentz is an interesting fight, and I'm particularly intrigued to see how Lentz's top game matches up against Oliviera's active bottom game. I'll probably be playing Lentz by decision hedged with Olivera outright (providing he's the dog, which I expect he will be).Comment -
Both guys have opened up as dogs on Bookmaker. Lentz is currently at +175, Manny's at +205. I'll be making plays on both.Comment -
Lentz as the underog surprises me given the enormous wrestling advantage. The bookies seem to love Oliviera.Comment -
I'm willing to take Tyson in the low -200s, but I think I'll just avoid Lentz-Oliviera.Comment -
how anyone can be surprised that lentz is the underdog is shocking. he took a beating from lowe before lowe made a stupid decision to shoot in, and had the assistance of the judges in the griffin fight.
And what kind of ridiculous statement is that the bookies love oliveira? He opened the underdog against miller and escudero.Comment -
Oh right, yeah. Let's just ignore the humongous gulf in wrestling ability between Lentz and Oliveira.
Griffin and Lowe also happen to be very good wrestlers, which makes this a completely inane and redundant comparison. Oliveira has an entirely different skill set, and happens to be totally deficient in the area which Lentz excels in. Guess that minor fact slipped your mind.
They're showing him unwarranted love now. And did he open as the underdog against Miller? What was the number? I only recall seeing him as a considerable favourite, though I may have forgotten the opener.Comment -
He opened -150 against Miller, and was bet down.Oh right, yeah. Let's just ignore the humongous gulf in wrestling ability between Lentz and Oliveira.
Griffin and Lowe also happen to be very good wrestlers, which makes this a completely inane and redundant comparison. Oliveira has an entirely different skill set, and happens to be totally deficient in the area which Lentz excels in. Guess that minor fact slipped your mind.
They're showing him unwarranted love now. And did he open as the underdog against Miller? What was the number? I only recall seeing him as a considerable favourite, though I may have forgotten the opener.Comment -
Lentz fights are snoozefests so i'm rooting for oliviera.Comment -
IMO, you'd be crazy to back Tyson Griffin as a favorite right now.Comment -
After weeks of properly set lines by the books, its nice to see cards this weekend with so much value. The lines open nice and get even nicer.Comment -
I like Griffin to win, but i think it will be a close fight. Value in Manny IMO. And Lentz has value for sure, Oliveira will win the standup, but will spend this fight against the cage or on his back.Comment -
I'm on Lentz at +140 (just missed the +160)
And while I think Griffin should also win... he hasn't exactly looked great lately and Manny packs some power.
I'll take a shot on Manny a +200.Comment -
Wow, yeah the value is on Lentz. His top control is good, and his wrestling is leaps and bounds better than Oli. His style of fighting is what proves the most consistant, and consistancy is good value. Oli is slick though, and I had hoped they would've matched him with someone to make a more interesting fight.Comment -
Is it even possible to submit someone with a ridiculous grinding top game?
Does that kind of jiu jitsu even work anymore?
From what I observe: you can only tap someone from your guard if he makes a mistake, or your grappling skills vastly dwarf his'.
The guard is dead.Comment -
No useful concept or technique ever dies; it just becomes a question of its overall efficacy. At the Mundials and at ADCC, elite grapplers get caught by elite grapplers from full guard with a level of surprising regularity. I'd say it's not a matter of the position itself, but rather what your average fighter has in terms of guard skills, versus what your average fighter has in terms of top game.
In elite level MMA, it's clear to see that fighters aren't just falling into armbars and triangles like complete scrubs any more. There's a few guys who can be extremely threatening with an open guard - like Maia and Aoki - but your average MMA fighter simply doesn't fall into that category. Guys on top just aren't clueless nowadays.Comment -
I think Lentz is a good play. Not sure why he's such a big dog.Comment -
Lentz is a great play here. People think he is boring because he doesn't take risks and has great top control which is the same reason he is a good bet.Comment -
Jim Miller was one of the greatest plays ever. Lentz is not on the same level as Miller, but he still has a lot of value here. Oliviera can get the sub here, but I think Lentz should get this fight down and win the decision. Submission attempts and most of the action on the ground will probably not be enough to get the judges to not give the decision to Lentz.Comment -
As far as the line goes here I think Oliviera is the favorite because he is supposed to be a huge prospect and is supposed to be the next biggest star from Brazil. Basically, you're paying more for the name and prospect status.Comment
